Intel was supposed to be dead money.
For years, Wall Street treated the company like a broken legacy chipmaker. And honestly, the market had good reason to be skeptical.
Intel had spent the better part of two decades missing major technology shifts. It fell behind in advanced chip manufacturing. Its foundry business was bleeding cash. And as AI demand exploded, Intel looked more like a cautionary tale than a comeback story.
Then Washington stepped in.
On August 22, 2025, the U.S. government announced an $8.9 billion investment in Intel, taking a 9.9% passive stake in the company.
At the time, plenty of people mocked the deal. They said Intel was too broken to fix… and that the government had no business taking stakes in public companies anyway.
Ten months later, Intel was up more than 500%.
This move had nothing to do with a traditional turnaround. Washington wrote a check… and changed the company’s entire risk profile.
After the government took its stake, Nvidia invested $5 billion… SoftBank followed with billions more… And President Trump said Apple had agreed to work with Intel on U.S.-based chip design and manufacturing.
The lesson here is not to buy Intel.
It’s that government backing changes perception, signaling that a company—or an entire industry—is strategically important. Once Washington reduces some of the risk, private capital tends to follow…
And its Intel stake tells us where that capital is likely to flow next…
Intel was a China dependence trade
The government’s strategy behind its Intel stake was about more than saving one company; it was about reducing America’s dependence on foreign supply chains.
For years, U.S. companies relied on overseas supply chains (especially across Taiwan and China) for the cheapest, most efficient production. That model worked when global trade was stable, China was still being treated like a long-term partner, and supply chain risk felt theoretical.
But that era is over.
Today, chips power AI, defense systems, data centers, smartphones, vehicles, industrial equipment, and nearly every part of the modern economy. The U.S. can’t afford to depend on foreign production for something that critical.
That’s why Intel became strategically important again.
And it brings us to the next supply-chain problem Washington can’t ignore: rare earths.
The next supply chain problem is rare earths
Rare earths sit at the center of almost every major strategic priority in the world today.
They’re used in everything from infrastructure and advanced manufacturing to semiconductors, robotics, wind turbines, and defense systems.
And for years, China has controlled a huge portion of the global rare earth supply chain.
That gives Beijing leverage over the same industries Washington is now trying to protect: defense, energy, chips, AI, and domestic manufacturing.
In other words, rare earths have the same basic problem Intel had: The U.S. spent decades allowing a critical supply chain to concentrate overseas…
Now that supply chain has become too important—and too politically vulnerable—to ignore.
If America wants to reduce its dependence on China, it needs secure access to the materials that make semiconductors, defense systems, EVs, robotics, energy infrastructure, and AI hardware possible.
Look at companies with real assets, government support, and a credible plan to build supply outside China.
Follow the money, not the politics
The market doesn’t care whether you love Trump or hate him.
It cares where money is going.
And right now, Washington is putting real money behind industries it views as critical to America’s future.
Intel already showed us what can happen when a company moves from “left for dead” to “strategically important.”
The biggest gains come from spotting that shift before Wall Street catches on.
Want to know where Frank believes the money is headed next?
Check out our brand-new service, Curzio Alpha!
It’s an all-in-one investing hub where you get access to every stock pick and all the research we offer, under one portfolio.
