Transcript was automatically generated.

Announcer 00:00

Today’s episode is brought to you by Savvy, the smarter way to book a vacation rental. Travelers save $400 on average. Always check Savvy.com first.

Frank Curzio 00:10

What’s going on there? It’s Wednesday, June 3rd, and I’m Frank Curzio.

Frank Curzio 00:13

This is the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where we break down headlines and, uh, tell you what’s really moving these markets: pottery and crime. Daniel Creech, a little angry this morning, which I like, from watching CNBC, I think you said. But how are you doing? How’s everything? You okay?

Daniel Creech 00:32

I’m good. Yep. I just.

Frank Curzio 00:33

Fired up today or what?

Daniel Creech 00:34

Just following the boss’s orders. He makes me watch CNBC in the morning, so.

Frank Curzio 00:38

And what got you so pissed off?

Daniel Creech 00:39

Well, they’re on Capitol Hill, and they’re just— they’re just horrible. I mean, they just let people get up there. Both sides. I mean, it’s just— it’s just pathetic at what they— how little our representatives know and do, and how powerful they are.

Frank Curzio 00:49

Oh, the Elizabeth Warren, everything that they do.

Daniel Creech 00:51

Oh, Elizabeth Warren, Tim Scott, Cynthia Loomis, um, Tillis. Just— just a horrible government.

Frank Curzio 00:58

We need more taxes, more taxes to spend on what we don’t know. Minnesota, all these places, they say we want to.

Daniel Creech 01:05

Horrible.

Frank Curzio 01:05

Raise taxes, uh, uh, on pretty much everyone, including the rich.

Daniel Creech 01:09

XAI, sovereign wealth funds. It’s just a— it’s just a disgusting mindset of people versus government, and the government has the boot on your neck constantly.

Frank Curzio 01:19

Yeah.

Daniel Creech 01:19

And to act like they don’t, and for CNBC to put them on a pedestal and kiss their ass and let them, uh, do that drives me insane, too. But let’s talk about something you guys want to talk about quickly, because I don’t care about it. Evidently, there’s a big game tonight, Frank.

Frank Curzio 01:32

There is a big game tonight. The New York Knicks, baby.

Daniel Creech 01:35

I have one thing to say about this later. Go ahead.

Frank Curzio 01:37

They’re underdogged today, going in, which, you know, they should be. They’re playing at the Spurs. Uh, I don’t know. I mean, the Knicks have been on fire. The competition hasn’t been as good for the Knicks. Okay. Uh, they played teams that were kind of beat up a little bit, but they still— you can only play what’s in front of you, and they beat the shit out of what’s in front of them. What was it? Like ten in a row. Yeah.

Frank Curzio 01:55

The Spurs, I just— I knew they were going to win the game seven just because it’s rare that you see a championship team game six going in at San Antonio when they played game six against the Thunder. And the fact that you don’t even show up on game six thinking like, oh, we’ll just take them against— like what?

Frank Curzio 02:13

After that game six, I just— for me, I— I knew that Oklahoma City was going to lose game seven, just the way they played game six. I mean, they went in, they’re like, we didn’t care if we lost because we got game seven at home. Championship teams don’t do that. They destroy you. They put your neck— put foot on your neck. So, you know, now you have the Spurs in there, and I got to say, uh, the Spurs look great. They’re young.

Frank Curzio 02:31

Uh, but one of the things that stood out to me is when the Knicks won, I felt like they expected to win. And maybe it’s because they sweat, but they— they— the celebration wasn’t like, oh my God, we just won a championship. When the Spurs won, they were crying like they won the championship. Like, I feel like to me, that was their goal.

Frank Curzio 02:51

Like that— that’s in those emotions. So when I look going in, I just think the expectations for the Knicks, like they’re looking to— I mean, it— yeah.

Daniel Creech 02:59

I saw the same thing with the Patriots.

Frank Curzio 03:00

Spurs are happy they got there.

Daniel Creech 03:01

Spurs are— same with the Patriots last year in the Super Bowl. Like when they won the— yeah, the— the, you know, the championship, get to— to— to the Super Bowl, uh, the conference final. It’s— yeah. I like teams that are just like, we’re not done yet. And I feel like the Knicks were like, we’re not done yet. So I do like the Knicks in this series. I do like the Knicks in— in six to close it out at home.

Daniel Creech 03:20

Uh, today’s game, I don’t even know. I mean, it’s such a coin flip. I really don’t know. I— three and a half. The Knicks usually— the game ones are not that good. Yes, they rested, but I just— I could see San Antonio coming out flat. One bet I would make, and I don’t know, Joe, if you want to look. I don’t know if you can— is, um, I like this bet that no one’s— I don’t think anyone bet.

Daniel Creech 03:41

I like, uh, call Anthony Towns for MVP. Last thing I got to say about basketball before— before we start and go to— so Millions talks in AI. Uh, when it was 2-2 and they wanted to fire the— the coach for the Knicks, which they always want to do, is 2-2 against Atlanta. They— they decided to take them off of the top of the key, uh, and— and put them more into the middle. And when they put them into the middle, his assist went up from seven to three.

Daniel Creech 04:00

Most games decide in— in— in two possessions, three possessions. I mean, you’re looking at, you know, more assists. He’s able— he’s quicker than he looks. He’s able to go to the basket on Wemby. He’s going to keep Wemby outside as well. And— and I think the offense, when they float to him, that’s where everything opened up. And they’re scoring like 140, 130 points a game is when they decided to do that, uh, and put him in the middle.

Daniel Creech 04:19

And just, uh, for me, I just think, you know, Brunson’s great. He’s going to have some of the best defenders on him. If the Knicks win, I just think that Towns has— has a good shot to win the MVP. And those odds, I know, are very, very high. That’s— that’s my crazy prediction. But anyway, I don’t know if you’re looking at, watching it, but it’s going to be electrifying. A great final. Two great teams that deserve to be there.

Daniel Creech 04:38

It should be a lot of fun. I’d be surprised if— if this doesn’t have skyrocketing in terms of the viewership and records. It’s going to be— it’s going to sky. Just, you know, the Knicks, people either hate them or love them. The New York team. So you got to— it’s great when the Yankees get there, too. It’s just people who hate the Yankees going to watch. People who love the Yankees going to watch. Same thing with the Knicks. I think you’re going to see, uh, you know, a lot of excitement.

Daniel Creech 04:59

Two great teams, two young teams. It’s going to be a lot of fun. It should be a really, really good series. I’m hoping it’s a really good series. I really— today’s going to be a great game. Really great game.

Speaker 3 05:05

I’m not there arguments, so I could care less. However, I like the fact that the Wall Street Journal was saying tickets go at New York from $3,000 to $250,000.

Daniel Creech 05:14

Yeah.

Speaker 3 05:14

So good for you guys.

Daniel Creech 05:15

Yep.

Speaker 3 05:15

If you can spend $250,000 on a basketball game, I salute you.

Daniel Creech 05:19

Yeah. That’s crazy.

Speaker 3 05:20

That’s impressive.

Daniel Creech 05:21

It’s even better when you— when you pay that much and your team loses. Imagine that.

Speaker 3 05:25

Yeah. Who cares?

Daniel Creech 05:26

Then it really sucks, but it should be interesting. But yeah, that— and look in hockey, hockey’s, you know, and NBA goes, you know, side by side, uh, in terms of timing. And, uh, good job by Vegas down Carolina. I think lost, what, one game or two games, I think. Uh.

Speaker 3 05:39

One.

Daniel Creech 05:39

One game total in the whole playoffs and looked great. But, you know, Las Vegas with that coach who just came in, like, towards the end of the season, man, he— they had— I don’t know if you saw that speech when they were down two-nothing. You know, he’s— he’s— he’s fiery, man. It’s cool. And Vegas is a really, really, really good team, man. They’re really good. So this— this should be a really good series as well. So you got two series, and hopefully we get that from the NBA as well.

Daniel Creech 05:58

So it should be cool. Sports, fun. Now let’s talk about stocks, because if you own AI, you think there’s nothing wrong with the world. The world is great. Everything that I— it’s kind of like, you know, maybe 1999 at regards where I could just buy anything up 30%. It’s got to go up another 30%. But, you know, the recent trends that we’re seeing when it comes to AI,

Daniel Creech 06:18

things that we’ve been talking about for three years, talking about the power, this picks and shovels, you know, the data centers, the CapEx spending is real. This is real money going in. You got to find out where that money’s going to. And you saw Corning. Look what Corning is. You look at Dell. Look what Dell is. Now it’s Hewlett Packard. I mean, it’s crazy. And now you’re looking at, at, you know, Google coming out, raising money, raising money to put into CapEx.

Daniel Creech 06:40

Does that worry you, Daniel, or not? Because that’s— that’s a pretty big story right now where everyone’s saying you’ll see it all over CNBC and analysts. Well, you know, these companies, they’re spending a lot, but now cash flow, free cash flow is going to go negative for a little while. I don’t know why that’s a negative, and I’m going to tell you why in a minute. But, you know, the massive CapEx spending is continuing to the point where Google’s like, hey, you know what?

Daniel Creech 07:00

We’re even going to use our stock price to raise money now. And it’s $80 billion. $80 billion that we’re going to raise, right? And now it’s upsized to $85 billion that they’re going to raise. I mean, I don’t know if you saw it. We’ll talk about that in a minute, Daniel. But the, uh, the SpaceX, uh, IPO and how much they’re raising, how much are they raising?

Daniel Creech 07:19

Like, is it— isn’t it $75 billion or something like that, which is whatever? Right. But— but $80 billion and upsized to $85 billion. And yes, you have, you know, different classes of shares in there. I won’t get to it. And, you know, you’re going to get an exercise price at $50 a share and, and, you know, six and a half percent coupons on some of the classes. So it’s A, B, C different.

Daniel Creech 07:38

But everyone’s pouring into this because they like what Google’s doing. And obviously they come in because they think stock’s going to be higher as they spend more on CapEx. But what do you think?

Speaker 3 07:46

I— I don’t think this is anything to worry about. I don’t— uh, I— I continue, and I don’t want to be rude here, uh, like CNBC got me in that mood, but I continue to be dumbfounded by the worries over the free cash flow spending. Because I understand that if you spend a lot of your money on something and it doesn’t work out, there is risk there.

Speaker 3 08:04

And I’m not saying there’s not risk to AI and buildouts and costs and all that kind of thing. What I’m simply saying there is take Google and Amazon, for example. Google, obviously, like you just said, did a capital raise. Okay. Do you really think that Google is going to invest this $80 billion on top of these other investments they’ve made? And those investments are going to turn out to be flops.

Speaker 3 08:26

They’re not going to produce any return on invested capital. And at the same time, you have to think that costs are going to continue to go higher, which they’re not. Once you build out the data centers, you’re not going to build them out forever. And then upkeep is cheaper than building them out. Right. Frank, what it seems to me is that everybody wants to point to AI and then just hint at the fact that,

Speaker 3 08:45

hey, they’re spending too much money, too much free cash flow. Uh, they’re going from asset light to asset heavy. And by the way, Google Search and everything cloud is going to fall off the map just as we realize this AI investment was an overshot. Is that an op? Is that a possibility? Sure. I just think it’s a very low possibility.

Speaker 3 09:02

So I continue to be dumbfounded on this worry over here because you just kind of come back to look at valuations. Also, look at the free cash flows that these guys have produced from 2020 to present. It’s tens of billions of dollars across hyperscalers. Yes, that will significantly go lower. Amazon and Google may go flat to negative as they build this out,

Speaker 3 09:21

but that’s only for a couple of years. And I know expectations are got to take them with some salt, but evidently those operating cash and free cash flows are going to set records in the hyperscalers by 2030. Last thing here, Frank, I think the bigger Google story is Berkshire Hathaway. Greg Abel is making some moves, um, now taking the helm.

Speaker 3 09:41

He just bought the homebuilder company. We don’t need to talk about that right now, but he already bought about, I’m rounding, $16 billion worth of Google, according to the latest 13F. Now they’re putting in at least another ten. I didn’t even hear it got upsized to 85, so I missed that. But even at the 80, they were— they being Berkshire— were taking another $10 billion. I think that that’s impressive. I think that,

Speaker 3 10:00

um, you ought to look at Berkshire here as a sleeper. We talked about it’s underperformance to the S&P 500 for quite some time. But Greg Abel buying $15, $16 billion of Google, now putting in another ten. Um, I don’t think that that’s insignificant. I think that that’s pretty impressive. And investors ought to pay attention to that.

Daniel Creech 10:16

Yeah. And I’m glad they’re finally doing this because it’s starting to underperform. Because when you have $400 billion in cash and you’ve been raising cash for the last three years in the biggest bull market in the history of the world, basically, it’s, you know, it makes you look really bad. Right. And it’s good that you’re pushing it into some of these things. You missed the AI trend completely, but, you know, you’re saying on the sidelines and people have been saying this for three years now.

Daniel Creech 10:35

Oh, watch out for the crash. They’re waiting for it. It’s blood in the streets. Blood in the streets. Well, you have blood in the streets. We’re going to talk about that in a minute. You do for a lot of stocks, for most stocks, I would say. Right. It doesn’t look like it because you see the market’s all-time high. We’ll get into that in a minute. But getting back to the CapEx story, Daniel, is you always have to look at the numbers. And remember, the media services, like the media generates money.

Daniel Creech 10:55

CNBC, Fox Business, all these companies, they generate money by getting people to view their stories and then they sell advertising dollars. So they want to know what’s the best stories to sell. One of the greatest stories out there is, you know, this massive collapse of this amazing trend. Right. Because people are making money. They’re talking shit. Now it’s going to crash. And, you know, people love to hear both sides of it. And that’s why you see when people,

Daniel Creech 11:15

you know, Michael Burry saying that AI is going to crash for three years now. And, you know, he’s been wrong on that. Uh, you know, and I’m not knocking him or whatever. That’s his opinion. But it’s when you’re looking at the number, the CapEx story is so ridiculous. It’s so ridiculous. Okay. Because if you’re spending that much money and you’re like, okay, I’m spending so much CapEx where cash flow is going to go negative, it all depends.

Daniel Creech 11:34

These guys have the smartest people in the world behind their finance departments running on top of AI as well. Right. So they have all this model. They know exactly how much money they’re spending and how much they’re making. Right. Dollar per ad spend, everything, return on ad spend, all these numbers. Right. They’re not going to spend if they do not think that they’re going to get significant returns. Now Google,

Daniel Creech 11:53

2023, $32 billion in CapEx. They generated $300 billion in revenue. Now you see the AI kick in. Right. So $32 billion in CapEx 2023, 2024, they raised it to $52 billion. You know what their revenue did? Their revenue went from $300 billion to $400 billion. 2025, $91 billion.

Daniel Creech 12:12

It was like, holy shit, $91 billion. Their revenue went from $400 billion to almost $500 billion. The more that they spend on CapEx, the more money and revenue that they’re making. And you see that across the board with every single quarter. These guys report where this is up 30%, 40%, every division, 35%, 30%, 40%, everything all through it, whether it’s cloud, even if what everything.

Daniel Creech 12:34

It’s unbelievable. Like, you know, you look at Google, whether it’s YouTube, it’s everything, right? Always down. You look at Mike, same thing. Right. Meta, same thing. All these divisions growing. So, you know, when you’re looking at, at, you know, why they’re spending so much, because this is the only trend. We’ve never seen a trend like this ever in history where it’s going to move the needle for these big trillion-dollar tech companies.

Daniel Creech 12:54

I mean, imagine if you created a business that generates $20 billion in revenue. Holy cow. That is unbelievable. That’s amazing. That’s nothing to these guys. Look at, look at Amazon. They invested in Anthropic early. They own a 20% stake. This company is going to come out of a trillion-dollar valuation when they IPO pretty much in a month or two. Right. That amounts to $200 billion.

Daniel Creech 13:14

Holy cow. $200 billion. If I had to guess, if I had to guess, $200 billion would probably put you in the top 75, probably 75 to 100 in terms of the biggest market cap companies in the S&P 500. Right. For Amazon, $200 billion is almost nothing when you have a three trillion, nearly a $3 trillion market cap. Right.

Daniel Creech 13:32

So they’re putting money into this trend because it moves the needle for them. Not only that, the hundreds of billions they’re spending on CapEx, you need to do it because you can’t afford to be left behind. And Microsoft is a great example of this. I mean, Microsoft stock, if you pull up the chart, uh, was it over $550, $555?

Daniel Creech 13:54

And it collapsed. Right. Put up a year chart. If you put up a year chart, look at that collapse. Right. Because they fell behind AI. Everyone’s like, Copilot sucks. You know, Microsoft’s so behind the curve in its software. And holy shit. Went from $555 to $350 in April. Right. And just two months ago, that’s a loss of $1.3 trillion in market cap because they were behind the curve in AI.

Daniel Creech 14:16

Now you’re seeing it’s back up to $430. Why? The street loves all the stuff they’re doing. New in-house AI models, including coding assistants, are going to compete with Claude and said, okay, this is what we’re putting on CapEx. Finally, because it moves the needle where Google saw a trillion-dollar, $2 trillion in market cap. Broadcom, $2 trillion in market cap. Right. That added now.

Daniel Creech 14:35

You know, that’s how big these companies are. You’re looking at Amazon. We said this a year ago now, like Amazon’s the next company, even nine months ago, that they’re going to, you know, increase that valuation to trillion. And they’re doing that. They’re close to a $3 trillion valuation. So, you know, these guys have the numbers. They have the proof. You’re seeing the quarters. The more they spend, the more they make. That’s why they’re putting more money into this. And could it end badly?

Daniel Creech 14:54

Yes, maybe it ends later, but there’s no end in sight. Because when we’re looking at Google, CapEx, I mean, you look at $91 billion, they’re going to go up to $200 billion. In 2027, their expected revenue is going to go to $577 billion and then almost $700 billion in revenue in 2028 from $480 billion now.

Daniel Creech 15:15

Right. This is where the CapEx is going. So for people to go on TV and I see it on Squawk Box and like, you know, oh, they, you know, there’s CapEx spend and they’re about to go free cash, you know, their free cash flow is going to be negative. Believe me, it’s not going to be negative for long. And the amount that they’re spending, they see this growth. They’re investing in growth. That’s what these companies need to do.

Daniel Creech 15:33

Invest in growth, not invest in bullshit, not invest in hiring so many more employees, investing in growth of the business. And this is the biggest growth trend that anyone’s ever seen. And that’s why they’re all spending. I mean, it’s confirmed that when you have all the hyperscalers, every single one of them across the board, it’s massively increasing CapEx. You’re not looking at one company outside the box, two companies outside the box.

Daniel Creech 15:52

They’re all doing it because they all see what their companies could become. And look what happened to Corning. Look what happened to Micron. Micron, how much is Micron? Micron’s up 1000%, I think, this year in the past 12 months. I’m sorry, past 12 months, Micron. Right. So how important is it to these companies to get involved in this trend? There it is. And holy cow, the results are insane. The results are insane, Daniel. Like, really.

Speaker 3 16:12

Yeah. And speaking of the next crazy one is Marvell, because Jensen, what’s his name, Joe? Jensen of Nvidia said that they were going to be the next trillion-dollar company. I have Marvell pulled up on Finviz. Market cap is about $275. I’m rounding. Even if you round it up to $300 billion, that’s still.

Daniel Creech 16:32

Look at the past five days. Is that the past five days? Look at where this stock has gone. Yeah. Past five. What was it? It’s up tremendously, 32% yesterday, and it’s up another 7% today. And he’s saying it’s going to be a trillion-dollar company even at today’s prices. What’s the market cap, Joe?

Speaker 3 16:45

That’s what I’m saying.

Daniel Creech 16:45

It’s going to double two more times.

Speaker 3 16:48

Yeah.

Daniel Creech 16:48

Holy cow. So you look at it at a share price of where is it? $312, probably $1200. Right. I think, you know, again, quick math, I could be wrong on it, but holy cow.

Speaker 3 16:57

And just quickly here from me on the, and I don’t mean to be a doomsday here, but Frank hit the nail on the head here. Are there 1999 references? Is this kind of crazy? Does this feel like a bubble a little bit? Yeah, you can make those analogies. And will this party end? Absolutely.

Speaker 3 17:12

AI is not the new saving grace that you’re never going to have a bear market and you’re never going to have a drawdown and all that. It’s just not anytime soon. That’s the point.

Speaker 3 17:20

So we are saying, listen, you don’t have, it’s okay to worry and say, hey, there are risks here. We’re not blindly putting our head in the sands, but to just say, oh, you know what? Marvell went up because Jensen said so, or Dell went up a lot, 30-some percent a day. These are bubble-like territories. And look at what happened after ’99.

Speaker 3 17:40

That is floor to ignorant. And, you know, the best thing, and I’m not saying I have, well, I have a crystal ball. I’m not saying it works. I’m simply saying, even if these are bubble-like materials, ride the bubble. You don’t have to stay invested forever. But, you know, this ending tomorrow, just because we have great news right now, is just pathetic. So don’t get caught up in that.

Speaker 3 18:01

The other side there, Frank, is with Marvel. You got Marvel and then Huler. Well, I’ll just stop at Marvel because I absolutely love the fact that this stock is absolutely on a tear and we ought to have a fun countdown bet on when this thing hits a trillion.

Daniel Creech 18:15

So Marvell is, I mean, to me, this story is amazing. I mean, this is a company I remember was under $10 at one time, right back in the day. And, you know, it’s great when you have the biggest company in the world going on there and saying, like, how important this company is to them and Nvidia is the biggest spender in the world. Right. So, you know, that definitely adds to it. I don’t know where you got the trillion-dollar number from or whatever,

Daniel Creech 18:35

but, you know, Marvell is very, very far from that. And maybe he’s right, but you know that they’re going to put up the numbers, you know, and it’s just a matter of, you know, how fast they’re going to put up those numbers. And you look at HPE, right? Hugh Packard, Enterprise, up 145% in the past three months. The past three months. You look at that,

Daniel Creech 18:56

I mean, you know, put that up in the last three months. Holy cow. I mean, you look at this, it’s insane. You’re buying these stocks even after they go up and you could still make a lot of money. Right. I mean, that’s even you said with Dell when it was up and it was still, you still did great for it. You still making it invest a ton of money in the newsletter. Intel, put up Intel, INTC.

Daniel Creech 19:14

You’re looking up 150% in the past six months. And if I’m not mistaken, that’s probably up today too, I think.

Speaker 3 19:22

Yeah, it was.

Daniel Creech 19:22

Up another 5% today, even in a down tape, really, when the market’s not doing that good. It clipped $115. And that’s when I say it clipped, it eclipsed its 1999 all-time high in terms of market cap. So it only took 25 years. Congratulations, Intel, and a huge endorsement by the president, which resulted in what? Which resulted in SoftBank coming in with a major investment with billions.

Daniel Creech 19:44

Then you had

Daniel Creech 19:47

Nvidia come in massively. Right. So when you have the backing of your government, you know, regardless of who’s in and who you like and who you don’t like, and if you care about money, when you’re backing this stuff and he’s going in and saying, you know, hey, Intel’s there and some of these rare earth metals and making it easy for them to get permits and stuff like that, you move the red tape.

Daniel Creech 20:06

What that does, it’s not just removing the red tape. What you’re doing is you’re telling the private market it’s okay to invest in this company because we have your back, because the US needs this stuff. Right. We need to invest in chips in the US. We need to invest in rare earths because we don’t rely on China.

Daniel Creech 20:18

Regardless of your political stance and how you feel, your political beliefs, once you put that government stamp on it, now you know that the private investments are going to come in because they feel more comfortable because they’re like, okay, we have a backstop here. And that’s why you’re seeing Intel absolutely go through the roof, which was not expected, is all of Intel’s shitty divisions, as well as Dell’s shitty division and Hugh Packard’s shitty divisions are also kicking ass now.

Daniel Creech 20:38

Right. Because now it’s like the PC market is making a comeback. And now, you know, it’s pretty soon it’s going to be mobile phones and different things that you could do within AI. So it’s unbelievable to see these moves. And the reason why, guys, and we need to break this down because it’s important, because you’re like, you know, people compare it to 1999 or they want to rationalize it or whatever it is. The biggest thing that we say here,

Daniel Creech 20:57

and this is why Daniel brought up a good point at the beginning, I’m like, you know, we watch CNBC because that’s the status quo. That’s what people think. And if you think that people are wrong on the downside or the upside, that’s how you make a lot of money, because that’s the status quo. When you’re seeing things reported in the media, when you’re seeing the analysts recommend the stock and they’re all on one side, that’s the stat, that’s the street estimate, that’s the anticipation, that’s what it’s trading on.

Daniel Creech 21:16

Right. What everybody believes. Your job is to prove whether, wow, these guys are underestimating the potential or they’re overestimating and maybe you should sell the stock. Now, this is why these stocks are taking off. If you look at the analysts, the sell-side analysts are a very big deal. Some of these guys are very, very smart. They’re good. And we know, you know, just to put up a target price on a stock,

Daniel Creech 21:36

you just have to change this cash flow number by one number and the target could change within 25%. Okay. So a lot of it, you know, putting a target on is a little crazy sometimes, but they need to do that. Their institutional research. Look how wrong they were. This is why you’re seeing the massive moves in these stocks. When you see the analysts that wrong and behind the curve, that’s when you’re going to see these stocks move tremendously.

Daniel Creech 21:55

Okay. Needham raised Marvel. Put Marvel, put Marvel up there, Joe.

Daniel Creech 22:04

Needham raised their target on Marvel. And this is just, just like, look this week from $118 to $270. HSBC up their target from $85 to $300. I follow this religiously. I love reading these sell-side reports because that’s how I find my best ideas when I say,

Daniel Creech 22:24

okay, these guys are wrong. They don’t see the potential or these guys are way overestimating this. And it’s just like when I, with Chipotle, when I was like, these guys, every analyst had a buy rating on it. I’m like, these guys were in a lot of trouble, lost CEO, and it stocks at 52 week low today. Right. So you look at HPQ.

Speaker 3 22:40

E.

Daniel Creech 22:41

HPE. Sorry. I love the fact.

Speaker 3 22:44

I do too, man.

Daniel Creech 22:45

2014. It’s so great that, like, listen, I love when companies spin off because they’re like, okay, we’re going to put all our dog shit here, you know, printers, which does anybody have a printer that lasts longer than six months? I mean, have anyone figured that out? Like, how to make a printer that works longer than six months? I just don’t know. Anyway, but, you know, let me take all the dog shit, put it here. And now we have Hewlett Packard Enterprises, which is data centers and stuff like that.

Daniel Creech 23:04

And look at this stock. And you look at Loop Capital, just raised their target from $23 to $75. This is a big company. Right. What’s the market cap on Hewlett Packard, Joe?

Daniel Creech 23:16

Wow, it’s still pretty low under $100 billion, but still, you could see the growth there if they continue that growth. You look at Micron and I forgot who it was. I think it was Loop as well. They raised a target on Micron from $520 to $1050. I mean, it’s $1080 now. It’s up 1000% in 12 months, Micron.

Daniel Creech 23:37

Right. I’m pretty sure it’s nearly up 10x in 12 months, in a year.

Speaker 3 23:42

Yeah. I know it went up over 10x in 13 months. I saw that headline.

Daniel Creech 23:46

Holy cow. I mean, it’s unbelievable. So if you put the comparison, Joe, hit the comparison underneath and just put S&P. Hit S&P. It’ll give you, what is that gain? That’s a year. No, that’s not a year.

Speaker 3 23:59

That’s three months.

Daniel Creech 24:00

Oh, it’s three months. So yeah, if you look at the years, it’ll go up there. So, you know, so you look at that, you’re looking at Morgan Stanley upgraded Dell. Upgraded Dell. Okay. This is Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley is one of the best research firms out there. They’re up. Dell just happened. Morgan upgraded Dell from sell, from sell to neutral.

Daniel Creech 24:19

Right. So, and they actually said this clearly, this is, I’m quoting, clearly their prior thesis was wrong and they are stepping to the sidelines and upgrading Dell to equal weight from underweight. You know what their target was? They increased their target from $170 to $448.

Speaker 3 24:34

Nice.

Daniel Creech 24:34

You’re looking at Susquehanna upgraded Dell to buy from hold. They raised their target from $138 to $700. These are huge, large-cap stocks. These aren’t small-cap stocks that you have a target price increasing by normally, okay, well, maybe 50%, 75% high, maybe 100% high.

Daniel Creech 24:53

These are massive, big stocks that these guys have been so absolutely wrong on, which is fine because they did not understand how much CapEx was going in because no one’s ever seen a trillion dollars by 2027, 28 that’s going to flow in CapEx just within AI. Right. And you look at the hyperscale is driving this. This is the amount of money that I’m trying to put in perspective for you.

Daniel Creech 25:15

We’ve never, ever seen. And all you need to do is capture a tiny little piece of that. If you’re a mid-cap company, a small-cap company, and your stock is going to go up 10x, Micron stock, what, up 10x when they’re capturing some of this? Corning is up through the roof. Dell’s up through the roof. Right. They’re all capturing a piece of that total addressable market. That’s what everyone’s job is.

Daniel Creech 25:34

Your job as our job as an analyst, your job looking at stocks within this field, which we’ve been on fire and we recommend this for, you know, again, for many, many years now. You want to look at these stocks and say, okay, who is going to get a piece of that total addressable market? Because if you’re able to figure that out, and that’s why we say you need more power and all everything. Right.

Daniel Creech 25:53

We say that because the companies that have the power are going to get a piece of that one point, that trillion dollar pie. And when they do, those stocks that are trading at $100 million valuation, $200 million valuation, which we saw with Vivo, which has been on fire, which is recommended two, it’s over six now. We recommended DGXX. You know,

Daniel Creech 26:12

again, we had two months ago, two and a half months ago, maybe three months ago, the CEO came on my podcast when the stock was two to defend the stock. And that stock is eight, almost eight. You know, so, you know, these companies that you’re seeing, we’re able to find, you know, this massive upside in these because this trend is not slowing down anytime soon. But that’s what you have to look at.

Daniel Creech 26:31

Sorry, I spent so much time on that. But when the analysts are wrong and you’re able to say, okay, these guys are just, they’re not on the right side of this trade. Now you’re seeing these upgrades when these stocks are up three, four, 500%. That’s when you love being in these things early. And that’s how you make an absolute fortune in the market. And AI is allowing you to do that, especially with this CapEx spend.

Speaker 3 26:52

Absolutely. Good for them for admitting they’re wrong. I mean, we all get it wrong, like you said, and you just move to the sidelines and such. The numbers, though, are backing it up. So yes, the moves are crazy. And Frank, I’m not disagreeing with you, but this stood out to me. I was looking. So Hewlett Packard Enterprise, a year ago for this quarter, they earned $0.38.

Speaker 3 27:12

The consensus for this quarter was $0.53. So from $0.38 to $0.53, that’s a good jump. They reported $0.79.

Daniel Creech 27:18

Yeah.

Speaker 3 27:19

Okay. And they’re projecting to grow at least double digits. Now, they’re not as explosive as Dell on the profits. But if you look at HPE, they put out a number about $340. You throw a multiple on that, Frank, of say $25. The market’s at $21. $25 and $340 is an $85 price target. Now, I’m not saying it deserves.

Speaker 3 27:38

I’m not saying, hey, it should trade at $25. I’m just simply saying, clearly, it shouldn’t trade at a market multiple. And it’s not even trading at $85 a day. So just don’t think you missed the train. You don’t have to go all in on it, but right now, but don’t think that you’ve missed this. And again, ignore the emotional fears that I and everybody else has.

Speaker 3 27:58

I just have them probably more and I’m more personalities inside my head, Frank. But you have that feeling of, hey, by gosh, the market’s waiting, Frank, when I buy this, everything’s over. And freaking $0.99 starts. And Daniel Creech goes in, boom, market. I get that. Just, you know, ignore that.

Daniel Creech 28:13

And just understand that higher prices doesn’t translate into a higher valuation. Okay. Because not only are these stocks moving tremendously, they’re moving tremendously on much, much, much higher earnings. Right. It’s a PE ratio, price to earnings. Right. So if the E is going higher and the price stays the same, you’re going to get cheaper. So the P is going higher, the price is going higher, but earnings are surging as well.

Daniel Creech 28:32

So these stocks are not, you know, you’re like, wow, this stock’s up 100%. Micron’s up 1000%. It doesn’t mean, I mean, it’s probably less expensive now than it was two years ago, which is insane because their earnings are exploding because of demand for memory and they have huge pricing power. So, you know, now with that said, and talking about all the positives and holy shit, and the market went up, what, nine days, going to be probably down today, S&P 500.

Daniel Creech 28:52

On the other end of the spectrum, though, I feel like nobody’s really talking about this, Daniel. McDonald’s, 52 week low. Shake Shack just won, got nailed. Chipotle, 52 week low. Intuit, downgraded to sell at Goldman yesterday. This is after the stock is down 50%. They’re downgrading to sell now. Schwab, 52 week low, Lowe’s, 52 week low,

Daniel Creech 29:12

CME Group, General Mills, Mastercard, 52 week low. So, you know, you’re looking at the S&P 500 again, up nine straight days. It’s a new record. Everyone’s high-fiving. You know how many stocks are at all-time highs right now?

Speaker 3 29:26

Got a theory.

Daniel Creech 29:27

You want to think?

Speaker 3 29:28

Not very many.

Daniel Creech 29:29

21.

Speaker 3 29:33

I would have guessed 20.

Daniel Creech 29:34

I would have guessed 19. I would have guessed 22. I was just off by, well, last time I looked. Yeah. 21.

Speaker 3 29:39

What was it? 21?

Daniel Creech 29:40

21. Of course, it’s the 21 largest companies, basically. Right. So that’s why you’re seeing the S&P 500. While 300 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading more than 20% below their peaks.

Daniel Creech 29:52

And out of those 300, 110 are down more than 40% from their peak.

Speaker 3 29:58

Damn.

Daniel Creech 29:59

So when you see this big disconnect, they’re like, what’s the takeaway? One, AI rules the world right now. The trend is so big. $1 trillion in spending coming pretty much in 2027. It’s able to fuel the entire, not just US market, the whole global market.

Speaker 4 30:16

School’s almost out and summer vacation season is right around the corner. Where will you be making memories this summer? Maybe you’re planning on packing up the family for an unforgettable beach escape, a mountain getaway, or a lakeside paradise. Well, I’ve got the secret to save you hundreds of dollars and a lot of potential headaches. Say hello to Savvy.com,

Speaker 4 30:38

the leading direct booking marketplace for vacation rentals. What’s the difference between Savvy and other vacation rental companies like Airbnb and VRBO? First off, when you book with Savvy.com, you’re booking directly with professional hosts. The Savvy team has carefully vetted for quality properties and reliable customer service.

Speaker 4 30:58

No more dealing with individual property owners who may or may not be good communicators. You’ll deal directly with professional staff who can take care of your needs no matter the time of day or night. And because they’ve cut out the middleman, you won’t pay hundreds of dollars in booking fees like you do with the competition. The rental price you see is the price you pay.

Speaker 4 31:19

They even show you what you pay for the same vacation rental on Airbnb and VRBO so you can see the savings for yourself. Imagine finding some of the exact same stunning homes you see on the other vacation rental sites, but without those ridiculous service fees and markups. No hidden charges,

Speaker 4 31:38

no surprises, just crystal clear pricing on incredible properties across the US, Canada, and Mexico. Travelers save an average of $400 versus Airbnb and VRBO. That leaves more money in your pocket for ice cream runs, snorkel gear, theme park tickets, or an extra night in paradise.

Speaker 4 31:58

This summer, travel smarter and play bigger. Head on over to Savvy.com and watch the savings stack up. Your unforgettable family vacation is waiting. And thanks to Savvy, you’ll get the vacation rental you want at the prices you deserve. Savvy.com. Stay smarter.

Daniel Creech 32:20

It is being fueled by this because now they’re building data centers every place. And that’s what we know with Vivo and Finland and Nordic. They’re going every place, every place that that’s easier, but easier regulation, cheaper power, whatever they can get it. Right. Because they need it. They need more power. So you look at the takeaway here is AI is ruling the world. It’s able to support the markets.

Daniel Creech 32:40

However, and I’m going to say this, it’s going to be interesting. However, these IPOs scare the shit out of me. You have SpaceX just coming out saying, okay, we’re going to raise it. It’s going to be a $1.75 trillion IPO. Right. Just coming out today with the numbers. Then you have Anthropic coming in a few months,

Daniel Creech 33:02

$1 trillion expected valuation. OpenAI, September, they’re saying that’s $1 trillion valuation. This is a lot of money that’s going to be coming out of the market, going into three stocks. Anthropic, I think, could be a much bigger company. OpenAI is kind of like, okay, seeing a lot of pressure, competitive pressures right now, yet it’s raising it money.

Daniel Creech 33:22

It’s very, it’s the highest valuation it’s ever been. OpenAI, remember, when these companies IPO, that’s a selling event for all the insiders. They want to get all the retail people in there and be like, here you go. We’re going to dump this shit to you. Right. You weren’t in it at $10 million valuation for OpenAI. You weren’t in it at $100 million or $100 billion or $300 billion. You’re in it at $1 trillion. And all these people that made all the fortune are like, here you go.

Daniel Creech 33:42

They’re going to scoop this shit and stick it down your throat because you’re going to buy a lot of this stuff at these crazy valuations. Why SpaceX is going to merge with Tesla probably within a year because there’s no way they’re going to make their numbers. Right. They’re going to have to do it. We’re not going to space tomorrow. It’s not going to be, oh my God, the colonies on Mars and shit’s going to take 20, 30 years. This company’s losing billions of dollars right now.

Daniel Creech 34:02

That’s going to continue. Right. So he knows that. Elon Musk, he’s a genius. He’s going to put Tesla underneath that umbrella optimist and probably create this whole entire thing. This way it’s the biggest company in the world. But, you know, Anthropic, OpenAI, again, these are trillion dollar companies where people are going to get sucked into this and more and more money is going to be coming out of a lot of more companies in the S&P 500,

Daniel Creech 34:23

which may create good value feel later on. But this is a trend that you have to, we’ve never seen anything like this. Trillion dollar IPOs coming out like they’re just like they’re nothing, like they’re nothing. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Anthropic is by far the best of this bunch that’s growing tremendously. OpenAI, a lot of pressure. Right. Still doing well, but pressure.

Daniel Creech 34:43

And then you have SpaceX, which is losing money, but a lot of hype. Elon Musk deserves it. He deserves to get that hype. After what he did with Tesla, and everybody doubted him on that. And I get it. But I’m sure you’re going to see SpaceX merge with Tesla pretty soon, within a year, because I don’t know how they support this valuation. And, man, look at Tesla stock at back at $430.

Daniel Creech 35:04

Wow, it’s amazing. Unbelievable. They can’t even sell cars right now. Their cars are down so much. And I mean, it’s so much on Optimus. It’s so much Optimus. By the way, I think someone I just read a research report, they’re going to come out with their first sales, their first sale at the end of, I think it was 2028. Okay. I don’t know if you know this, but we’re in 2026 right now.

Daniel Creech 35:25

So no revenue for Optimus for those robotics until 2028. While you have this declining trend that you’re seeing, that they’re seeing a massive decline in sales for EVs, for Tesla’s right now, you’ve seen this, you know, this massive steep decline with a company that’s trading at an insane valuation when their growth is not going to take Anthropic seeing growth right now,

Daniel Creech 35:45

OpenAI seeing growth right now. I mean, Tesla, they’re not, you’re looking at SpaceX, they’re not going to see growth for a very, very long time. And even Tesla as well. But, you know, a lot of money coming out of the rest of the market from these IPOs. So let’s see how this plays out. It’s pretty crazy. It’s pretty crazy. It’s a very interesting market, something that we haven’t seen. That’s why I always say,

Daniel Creech 36:05

Daniel, throughout every investment book, you have a red war. We’re in different territory with the amount of money being spending, the backstops that we have with banks and all this shit and just constant spending, no matter what it is, and government taking stakes in companies. You know, people want to read books and say, you know, based on this and this PE ratio, this is what happens. And look at 1999. 1999 has no comparison to here. You can’t compare stocks going higher just like they’re going higher today.

Daniel Creech 36:25

Because if you look at a chart, the profits in 1999 would drop like a rock in ’98, ’99, 2000. Profits were dropping. Right. Earnings were getting crushed. They’re falling tremendously as those stocks are going higher. We’re seeing earnings at record highs going higher, accelerating while this market’s going higher. It’s a different market. You can’t compare this.

Daniel Creech 36:44

This isn’t a bubble. This is real spending, real money going into this. So until that stops, you have to worry. But this disconnect between the S&P 500, where there’s a select few stocks that are doing very, very well, 21 at all-time highs right now with the market at highs. I mean, I love to see a chart of that if it’s ever happened.

Daniel Creech 37:01

But S&P all-time high with just 21 stocks at all-time highs went 300, a little more than 300 and down more than 20% off of their peak. That’s pretty crazy when you think about it.

Speaker 3 37:11

Yeah, it is crazy. And it’s not going to last forever. Who knows how long it’ll last? But that’s because we have a market cap weighted indices. So, I mean, it’s not, good job explaining that, but it’s not, it’s not anything new. So, and yeah, there are similarities. But yeah, I mean, getting caught up in the ’99 just because prices are up is lazy.

Daniel Creech 37:28

So your boy Jamie Dimon making arounds, worried about the Clarity Act. And he says something interesting about Armstrong. Do you want to put it up?

Speaker 5 37:40

It will be fought. This will not be, no one’s going to bow down to this guy, okay, or that company. And he’s the only one. And he’s spending hundreds of millions of dollars in Washington in this thing.

Speaker 6 37:51

He said he’s representing the whole industry.

Speaker 5 37:53

He’s full of shit.

Daniel Creech 37:55

Well said, bankster. That’s the best bankster.

Speaker 6 37:57

I’m going to watch that one.

Daniel Creech 38:00

Just like, why do they pause when he says the word shit? It’s like, oh my God, he’s full of shit. But.

Speaker 3 38:04

Oh, let me interrupt you because they’re in this bubble and they act like reality doesn’t exist. And that’s what they act like. They act like everything is made for TV and shame on them all the time for it. Go ahead.

Daniel Creech 38:13

And I’m a big fan of Jamie Dimon. So he’s like, Brian Armstrong’s full of shit. So Brian Armstrong is the CEO of Coinbase. And he wants, yeah, the Clarity Act being passed, stablecoins. And Jamie Dimon is fighting this as much as he can. I’m a huge fan of Jamie Dimon. But I think it’s kind of funny because Jamie Dimon is like, he’s worried. He’s worried about the safety of stablecoins, the safety of it, that people are going to get hurt.

Daniel Creech 38:35

That’s what Jamie Dimon’s really, really, really worried about. That’s what he says he’s worried about. Okay. But he’s not worried about the $6 trillion in assets that you have, right, in banks that pay zero interest when interest rates where they are, where you can get 3.5%, 4% in some places. Right. And I’m talking about just money market accounts. If you go into different money market accounts that you could pay,

Daniel Creech 38:54

which is, you know, Interactive Brokers and there’s several others out there. But when you’re able to do that and your job is to take money and get as cheap as possible and lend it at the highest rate possible, of course, right, you are going to fight this as much as you can. And that’s your job. And you fight it.

Daniel Creech 39:10

But please, I’m begging you, please do not f and bullshit people and tell me the reason why you don’t want this to pass because you’re worried about retail investors. You’re worried. Please don’t say that. Come on. Please don’t say that. I mean, just come on. I mean, don’t make me lose that respect for you, Jamie Dimon. Please say, listen, we’re making a fortune and I’m defending my business model.

Daniel Creech 39:30

I’m fine with that. That’s great. It’s capitalism. It’s business. Do it. That’s why you’re lobbying the shit out of freaking Wall Street right now. And you have all these politicians fighting for you. This way we don’t get this freaking passed, right, for the Clarity Act. Right. Because it’s going to result in now a lot of money pouring out of there, going into another security that actually is going to give them interest, which you should be doing. Like LIV, same thing.

Daniel Creech 39:49

I love that LIV freaking came out with the PGA Tour because it made the PGA Tour raise their purses because they were stealing money from the players for all along. Right. Same thing here. They’re stealing money from retail investors. You get competition entering the market. You’re fighting it. It’s better if the competition comes in because what’s going to happen if they do get passes with stablecoins? They’re going to raise their rates. They’re going to raise their rates on money,

Daniel Creech 40:09

on checking and savings accounts, which they should be doing right now. But they’re not doing it because they can get away with it. Right. So I love Jamie Dimon. I love the fact. I love a good fight. He doesn’t know shit. Armstrong doesn’t know shit. But Armstrong does know shit. He understands this. He understands the $6 trillion is up for grabs. And you guys have been keeping this,

Daniel Creech 40:28

this boys club that’s been there for 100 years untouchable because you’re paying politicians. Now it’s nice to see competition come in. You tried to stop it under Biden. You were able to buy him off, to buy him, to make sure none of the banks took Bitcoin and you shut down banks and stuff like that. And, you know, I got debanked. So many people got debanked saying, oh, crypto, all this bullshit. Right.

Daniel Creech 40:47

All this nonsense, all because you’re paying off the right politicians. Now you don’t have that. Let’s see. Maybe you should just change your business model a little bit and do what’s right. That would be the good thing to do, Jamie Dimon, is to increase those rates, retail investors and checking and savings accounts. That’s what you need to do. Don’t tell me you’re worried about this because it’s the safety for retail investors.

Daniel Creech 41:06

Please don’t bullshit everybody. Come on. You’re better than that. You know, I’m a big fan of you. You’re much better than that. You got to do better than that. I’m sorry. You got to do better than that.

Speaker 3 41:13

Oh, Frank, don’t get caught up in the game. Listen, everybody’s got an agenda. Everybody’s got words and water they have to carry.

Daniel Creech 41:20

Yeah, but it’s all a job. And that’s why I love this podcast because we don’t give a shit. So we could say whatever we want because we want to call out people and even Jamie Dimon, who we all big fans of, we’re going to call him out when he’s full of shit and he’s full of shit. So let’s go to the Clarity Act and getting into Bitcoin because Bitcoin’s now in the mid-60s. Okay. You guys know I’ve been very, very bullish on Bitcoin for a very, very long time. We’ve had in the portfolio,

Daniel Creech 41:40

and when we had our portfolio, we had, I think it’s 6,000.

Daniel Creech 41:44

My thesis on Bitcoin has changed. That’s why I shut down this newsletter. And for everyone who said, Frank, you’re shutting down the newsletter because, you know, a lot of stuff was down. I didn’t like the industry. And what we did for our subscribers, we always take care of subscribers when we do something like this. We don’t do it often. But when we shut down the newsletter, we gave everybody access to all of our products, including our AI product.

Daniel Creech 42:04

And if you did that, you’re absolutely on fire. You probably made back all of your money that you lost in that newsletter over the past year, which, you know, just everything, all coins, everything has gotten annihilated. You probably easily made back your money, probably times two or three because everything’s been on fire with AI. And on top of that, everything within this industry went down a lot further since we closed this. So for me,

Daniel Creech 42:23

when I look at Bitcoin and what’s changed, and I always said it, if the thesis changes, you know, if things change, you have to change your thesis if the facts change. Okay. What is the main thesis for Bitcoin? To me, it’s not valuation. Right. You can’t really value it. It’s more scarcity. Right. It’s more, okay, there’s 21 million coins and people are going to hold it forever, hodl, whatever you want to say.

Daniel Creech 42:43

To me, that thesis is challenged now. Maybe not dead, but you’re looking at Bitcoin miners. Right. So Bitcoin miners own 0.5% of the float, Daniel, right, which is 100,000 Bitcoin, a little bit more than that.

Daniel Creech 42:57

They know they have a business that’s unscalable and unsustainable. Right. Their margins are going to half every four years. Imagine having a business, no matter how good you do, your margins are going to half every four years. It’s unsustainable unless the underlying commodity continues to go high, which Bitcoin’s no longer doing. Right. And when I say unscalable, because you can’t spend a certain amount of money and then everything else is gravy after that, like the newsletter business, financial newsletter business.

Daniel Creech 43:18

Okay. You recover your costs up to X amount. After that, everything you sell, you could scale. And you can’t scale this business because you have to spend more in order to make more. Right. You have to spend more on power. You have to get more of the best chips. You have to get the power, the electricity prices. Right. So you have to spend more to make more. So these guys were all sitting on Bitcoin forever, saying Bitcoin, we own it, but they’re businesses.

Daniel Creech 43:38

Right. They’re not these, it’s religious belief like, oh my God, no matter what happens, we’re never going to change. We’re not going to change our religion. We’re not going to change our political status. Right. From Democrat to Republican, ever. Right. These guys are businesses. And now they see a business where they happen to get lucky and own the power for Bitcoin. And they’re like, okay, we can’t make money on Bitcoin now, but we have this trend where a trillion dollars is being spent.

Daniel Creech 43:57

Everyone’s in dire need of the power that we have. The biggest companies in the world spending $200 billion, like Google and Amazon, a year on CapEx, a dire need for this. So why don’t we switch our business model? And what are they doing? They’re selling their Bitcoin to fund their transition from tier one Bitcoin mining into tier three. Right.

Daniel Creech 44:15

So now you have this whole group who were hodling, holding Bitcoin. They’re selling Bitcoin actively. Right. So you have this massive selling taking place. And you can say, well, Frank, that’s less than 1% of float. Look at public companies and even private.

Daniel Creech 44:29

It’s more than 10%, but public companies own 6%, 1.1 million, Daniel, you could earn a really nice yield right now just in treasuries. I mean, and when was the last public company that said it increased their Bitcoin holdings this quarter, other than MicroStrategy? Like, remember we had, oh wow, this company, I know Square was buying it.

Daniel Creech 44:48

Oh wow, Tesla’s buying it. No, but none of these companies are even thinking of putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet anymore. That’s different from pretty much 18 months ago where people were looking at this. Right. Especially with the Clarity Act getting passed. You look at stablecoins, stablecoins. Oh my God, they’re going to buy all this Bitcoin through stablecoins and, you know, leave it in Bitcoin or whatever.

Daniel Creech 45:09

Billions of new stablecoins are being minted like crazy through Circle and Tether. That capital is parked on exchanges rather than being deployed to buy Bitcoin right now. And not only that, they’re using it to buy treasuries to keep that value the same. Right. That’s what they want to do, like a money market account. So you don’t have this activity from stablecoins.

Daniel Creech 45:28

You’re looking, okay, well, we got these ETFs, Frank, they all launched. Okay. Do you know the ETFs launched in 2024? And since 2024, you had one event where you had, I think, five trading days in February 2025, where you had this massive, you know, liquidation period. Today, including as of yesterday,

Daniel Creech 45:49

right, they bled cash for 11 straight sessions. That’s the longest redemption streak since these things were launched. So you have people that are dumping Bitcoin at a record pace because they’re looking now, okay, well, the people want to buy Bitcoin who don’t want to hold it.

Daniel Creech 46:04

You want to buy Bitcoin for appreciation value, but yet you’re watching AI and a stupid company like Hewlett Packard Enterprise go up freaking 60% out of nowhere, a shitty company like Intel up, you know, 145% in the past few months. So they’re like, why am I even going into Bitcoin? So you’re taking that, you know, despective nature out of Bitcoin, saying, wow, I can invest in some of these other things that are better.

Daniel Creech 46:23

Right. So my question to you, Daniel, if you’re really bull on Bitcoin and it’s a legit asset class, I’m just saying the 500,000 to 250,000 Bitcoin is off the table for me. Maybe it goes to 100K, maybe it goes to 125K, but, you know, you’re looking at these facts where AI has changed this industry tremendously, especially with the Bitcoin miners,

Daniel Creech 46:42

especially with the speculation point, because so much of this AI shit’s going through the roof. And it’s, you know, it’s like a, yeah, it’s like a circus of some of these gains. Where is the buying coming from? Who’s going to buy Bitcoin here? I mean, you have Michael Saylor and, you know, again, he sold some of that’s more of a headline than what really happened there.

Daniel Creech 46:59

But, you know, Day, I ask you, where’s the buying in Bitcoin going to come from that’s going to push this thing to 100, 125,000? I don’t know.

Speaker 3 47:05

Well, I don’t think anything has changed on that front of who would buy it. Like you said, scarcity, etc. I don’t know what hat it’s going to wear, whether it’s a hedge against inflation or a safe haven or just a lottery ticket. But, yeah, you make some good points. I’m not so worried about Bitcoin miners selling too much because just like the hyperscalers, you go back and Bitcoin is extremely volatile.

Speaker 3 47:26

But, and I’m not attacking you, Frank, but let’s just say, hey, you sell a bunch of mining stock to transition to AI data centers. Well, when that revenue starts coming in, what are you going to do with that money? Are they going to buy Bitcoin and hold it again? Are they going to not? Are they going to just keep investing in AI data centers?

Daniel Creech 47:39

Oh, they’ll invest in AI. They’re going to buy Bitcoin with it.

Speaker 3 47:41

Why wouldn’t you? I mean, if you got, if you set up your AI data center, now you got nothing but money coming in, why wouldn’t you diversify?

Daniel Creech 47:47

Because, I mean, what they’re doing right now is they’re investing in CapEx to increase that power and even increase. So once you have these facilities.

Speaker 3 47:54

I know that. But they’re going to rent it out for AI. That is going to generate tons of revenue for them.

Daniel Creech 47:58

Tons of revenue that they’re going to have to do something with that. Put it more back into the company, generate more power.

Speaker 3 48:03

Well, yeah, you can, but you can also diversify.

Daniel Creech 48:04

That’s what they’re doing. That’s what Riot’s doing. That’s what Mara’s doing, which are two companies I wouldn’t fucking touch because they’re terrible. But I will say this. So this is the problem that you’re having here and why, you know, maybe they put it into Bitcoin, but they’re not going to mine it. But when you, I looked at Riot’s last quarter and Riot’s a much better place than Mara. Mara’s a joke. I mean, they dilute shareholders.

Daniel Creech 48:23

It’s the worst-run company in the history of companies. When you look at, and this is their last quarter. Right. And I’m an idiot, you know, I’m a nerd.

Daniel Creech 48:30

I look through this stuff and I’m looking through, you know, this is page 28 on their quarterly report. Right. Which no one’s going to pay attention. And it says cost to mine. And it’s interesting. So when you look at it, it has 2025, it’s broken down by quarter. Right.

Daniel Creech 48:45

So it says the cost of my one Bitcoin, excluding Bitcoin miner depreciation. We’re going to get to that in a second, excluding Bitcoin miner depreciation. So when I look at, and I want to bring this up and show you guys. So when you look at the Bitcoin mining depreciation part,

Daniel Creech 49:05

which is interesting because they have two different things here. It’s just my, so they have Bitcoin miner excluding depreciation. And they’re saying the cost to mine was, as of December 31st, 2025, was 60,000. But they’re saying March 31st, last quarter went down to 44,000. We’re at 66,000. Okay. That’s profitable.

Daniel Creech 49:24

But they, again, they have a note here saying that’s excluding minor depreciation. With minor depreciation, which they have another line item, which again, this is buried, it costs $106,000 on average to mine one Bitcoin when you’re including the minor depreciation. So right away, I’m like, okay, how do they define minor depreciation?

Daniel Creech 49:45

Refers to the loss in value, specialized cryptocurrency that the mining hardware over time due to physical wear, rapid technology advancements, and the rising difficulty of the Bitcoin network, which means it gets more difficult as you go higher, as you go long, you know, as time goes out to buy for Bitcoin and your margin is going to get halved, right, every four years.

Daniel Creech 50:04

So based on that metric, again, this tells you that it’s an unsustainable business model because they’re looking at costs going from December 31st, 2025, excluding minor depreciation. It’s $60,000 to mine for Bitcoin. With the minor depreciation, it’s 106,000, which nobody’s really talking about.

Daniel Creech 50:22

So if you’re telling me that I have a business that my expenses are basically going to double for the current business model and my margins are going to shrink tremendously, you have to get out of it. They have to sell their Bitcoin. They could buy it back or whatever, but the Bitcoin, they can’t mine Bitcoin anymore. It’s not a sustainable business model, especially because you have AI sitting there and they have all this power.

Daniel Creech 50:43

So it makes sense for all these guys to transition. That removes a pretty big component out of here. Now you have all this selling on Bitcoin that you weren’t expecting. Now you’ve seen it filter in where, you know, public companies aren’t really buying it. The Clarity Act is like up in the air. You don’t have the strategic Bitcoin fund. We thought it was going to be, they’re going to purchase Bitcoin. They’re not purchasing Bitcoin. That’s what Trump wanted.

Daniel Creech 51:02

It’s probably why he loaded up in his DJT security. I loaded up Bitcoin because I thought that was going to happen. That hasn’t happened. Right. They’re just taking confiscated Bitcoin and that’s what they’re leaving in the treasuries, you know, in, you know, on their balance sheet. So for me, and this is a serious question, come at me, frankcursorysearch.com. I want to know, like, what’s your thesis for Bitcoin to go higher here?

Daniel Creech 51:23

Why is it going to go higher? Because a lot of the thesis of why it’s going to go higher and holding this thing forever, you removed a lot of that component. And now it results in these redemptions coming in from these Bitcoin ETFs that are at record highs at 11. And you’re seeing this pullback and all altcoins, everything is getting annihilated because people could go, I mean, think about it, Daniel, what do you buy Bitcoin for?

Daniel Creech 51:43

Okay. I got to buy it to hold it forever. Well, you’re taking that thesis out a little bit because a lot of these companies aren’t doing that. All right. I want to buy it for speculation. Well, you can get into AI and much less risk and companies that are actually seeing profits and have massive gains. Right. So you’re taking out the speculative nature of it as well. You’re going to hold this asset forever. Well, okay. Now you’re competing directly with gold,

Daniel Creech 52:02

which maybe is in better position with the central banks buying. It’s just you didn’t have all that in play a year ago. And the thesis for Bitcoin has clearly changed. And I know Bitcoin, a lot of people listen to this because, you know, we’re into Bitcoin and made them a lot of money in Bitcoin. I made a lot of money in Bitcoin over my career. But when I look at the thesis here, it’s clear has changed where,

Daniel Creech 52:21

how is this thing, like people are calling 500,000 or a million, that’s gone. I mean, getting back to 100,000 or 125,000 is going to be difficult because where is the buying going to come from? Send me the emails. I want to hear what you have to say because for me, I don’t know. I’m thinking about where is the buying going to come? Who are you going to get to buy Bitcoin right now? Who’s going to significantly move the needle in this? And I don’t know. I can’t tell you that.

Daniel Creech 52:40

I can’t even, I don’t have an answer to that question, which means that I’m not bullish on Bitcoin.

Speaker 3 52:45

There you go. Well, you don’t have to be. So that’s good news. It’s a free world, Frank.

Daniel Creech 52:48

Yeah. Yeah. It’s a free world, free world. But, you know, that’s my thesis on it, which means maybe you should go out and buy Bitcoin like crazy.

Speaker 3 52:54

Yeah. There you go. Load up.

Daniel Creech 52:56

Absolutely like crazy. So, yeah. So other than that, listen, you have a lot of companies are reporting, you’re seeing good, you know, really good results. Right. Especially through Bitcoin. We have, not Bitcoin, but through AI and all these companies, Hewlett Packard and Dell. And, you know, it’s just, it’s pretty remarkable just to see the numbers that are coming out.

Daniel Creech 53:15

Isn’t Broadcom, did Broadcom report yet? What are they reporting? Let me see that.

Speaker 3 53:19

I don’t know.

Daniel Creech 53:22

AVGO. I love the symbol, AVGO for Broadcom. We’re going to change the name, but we’re not going to change the symbol. Okay. Great.

Speaker 3 53:28

Oh, they report today after the close.

Daniel Creech 53:29

Oh, they do. Okay. So they’re going to report. And what do you think is going to happen there? I mean.

Speaker 3 53:33

A year ago, $1.58.

Daniel Creech 53:34

Look at that move in Broadcom. So, so when you’re looking at Broadcom, just holy cow. I mean, it’s unbelievable. And this is a company, this isn’t a type.

Speaker 3 53:43

Are you buying this before earnings, Frank?

Daniel Creech 53:44

I mean.

Speaker 3 53:45

Up or down tomorrow or at the open?

Daniel Creech 53:49

I mean, how.

Speaker 3 53:50

Frank, how in the hell can you not say up after that?

Daniel Creech 53:52

How does it not go up? That’s what I’m saying. How does it not go up? But look at the recent move in this stock just in the past five.

Speaker 3 53:58

Ignore that. We’re talking about right now.

Daniel Creech 53:59

I mean, do you know what it has to do? I’m trying to figure out. So 414 to 487, you know what I mean? That move, you could say, okay, yeah, that’s a big move percentage-wise. And okay. So, you know, I look at the, let me see the percentage gain is. All right. So you have 15%. You’re like, okay, that’s a lot. It’s okay. This is a $2.3 trillion company that just went up 15%.

Daniel Creech 54:19

I mean, it went up higher than, you know, what McDonald’s market cap is. Right. So to see these massive moves that are taking place, and this is a $2 trillion company, these guys are getting it done. They got to blow out the numbers. I don’t know. So far, I would have told you with Dell, Hewlett Packard,

Daniel Creech 54:38

I mean, a lot of these names, Marvell, I would have said, you know, look, the expectations are really high. All of them exceeded those expectations, blew the number out. Well, going up into the quarter and went higher. Usually, you see these companies ramping up into the quarter. They report numbers that are good and then they’ll pull back a little bit because they ran up into the quarter with expectations. You’re seeing them run up,

Daniel Creech 54:59

blow out the numbers and go up even higher and then go up a higher a day or two later, like we’re seeing with Marvell and even Intel. So I can’t see how this doesn’t go higher. I can’t see how they don’t blow out the numbers. But if they don’t blow out the numbers, what’s good is it’s going to be, it’s going to be really bad for Broadcom. It’s not going to be seen like Shake Shack missed their estimates, Daniel. And Shake Shack, you know, Chipotle fell, McDonald’s fell, you know, in sympathy.

Daniel Creech 55:20

Right. You’re not going to see anything else fell in sympathy because everybody else reported it already and they reported blowout numbers. So Broadcom does not meet those numbers. It’s Broadcom specific. And you could see this company getting nailed without the whole entire industry getting nailed because everyone showed up. Everyone did what they had to do, reported their numbers. But I just can’t see with the amount of spending and Broadcom’s maybe the fourth or fifth biggest beneficiary of the spending.

Daniel Creech 55:42

Right. This massive spending that’s taken place from the hyperscalers, maybe third on that list, you know, Nvidia being first and Broadcom’s going to be top two or three. How do they not blow out that number and expectations? Because I don’t think the analysts have caught up to this one yet either. But holy cow. I mean, that trillion of market cap that these guys have gained in the past few months is just, is remarkable. It’s like out of nowhere.

Daniel Creech 56:00

2.3 trillion Broadcom, that’s their market cap. That’s probably the most under-radar large cap company in terms of market cap that I’ve ever seen. Like just under the radar, $2.3 trillion market cap. That’s unbelievable. So.

Speaker 3 56:13

You’ve convinced me. I’m buying some, Frank.

Daniel Creech 56:14

All right. Buy some right now. Let’s go. So, you know, Broadcom, we’ll cover tomorrow. We’re going to have some ideas for you tomorrow. You know, just want to cover the AI space and cover Bitcoin. There’s a lot going on. We’ll talk probably more about Tesla as well and or the SpaceX IPO. We’re going to get more information out on that. But yeah, let us know what you thought about this podcast, Daniel.

Daniel Creech 56:32

I don’t know if you had anything else that you want to touch up on other than I want to say, let’s go Knicks tonight. I’m excited for this game. I hope the Knicks don’t come out flat. I mean, this is a game. They need, it would be big to win this game. Winning game one is good. And, you know, I don’t know. The Knicks really have a good team. But I just, I don’t know. I don’t want to be too positive on the Knicks here,

Daniel Creech 56:52

but I just think the Knicks have the better team and they have the more experience because, you know, just coming together, playing together a little bit longer, I just think that they, yeah, they have a good shot. But man, if San Antonio wins this with this young team, that’s a dynasty. They’re going to be great for a very, very long time with that team. It’s incredible. So should be a great series. We’ll be back tomorrow.

Daniel Creech 57:12

Wall Street Unplugged Premium and questions and comments can be found at frank@curzioresearch.com. Daniel?

Speaker 3 57:17

Daniel@curzioresearch.com.

Daniel Creech 57:19

All right, guys. We’ll see you tomorrow. Take care.

Announcer 57:21

Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money, and your responsibility.