Last month, I told you why drug patent expiration is quickly becoming a $214 billion trend.
We zeroed in on Mylan (MYL), one of the largest generic drug-makers in the world. That’s because it is a big potential beneficiary.
As I explained, $214 billion in worldwide drug sales were coming off patent in the next six years (2015 to 2020).
Generic companies are allowed to make identical drugs (by law) once a patent expires.
And Mylan is one of the few companies positioned to benefit from this windfall.
If you decided to add shares after reading my article, you could be up 25% on the stock. That’s a solid return in just six weeks.It’s also a decent return compared to the S&P 500, which rose about 3% in the same time frame.
A big part of these gains took place on Tuesday.
That’s when competitor TEVA Pharmaceutical (TEVA) offered to buy Mylan for $40 billion. That amounts to $82 a share, or another 10% upside from the current price.
TEVA may have to raise its offer to $85 to $90 a share before this deal is finalized. Once approved, the combined company stands to become a global pharmaceutical powerhouse.That’s why, if you’re in this name, you may want to hold on to your Mylan shares.On Tuesday, TEVA’s management team provided estimates of what the combined (TEVA/Mylan) company would look like. This included annual sales of $30 billion and $7 billion in net income.To put these numbers in perspective, pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) generated a little over $30 billion in sales last year, with a net income of just $4.1 billion.
What’s more, Glaxo ranks as the sixth-largest pharmaceutical company in the world based on market cap.
TEVA expects to save at least $2 billion in cost synergies. However, this number is conservative as massive layoffs are likely. (Layoffs are common when two companies in the same industry merge.)
By 2016, TEVA expects the combined company to generate nearly $6 per share in earnings (and more than $7 in earnings by 2018).
At $6 in earnings, TEVA is trading at just 11 times forward earnings. That’s a huge discount to the industry, which trades well-above 20 times earnings.
Based on these numbers, it’s no surprise TEVA’s shares jumped on the merger announcement.
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