Wall Street Unplugged
Episode: 785August 4, 2021

When everyone is calling for a crash… don’t listen

It seems like everyone is calling for the next major market drop. Today, I’ll explain why the market isn’t crashing anytime soon. [00:30]

David Garofalo—CEO of Gold Royalty and former CEO of Goldcorp—explains how to gain exposure to different areas of the gold market… and why certain types of gold companies are in a perfect position to benefit as the next bull market unfolds. [33:36]

Then, Daniel and I discuss how mandatory vaccines and “vaccine passports” would impact the economy… and why inflation is hurting some companies more than others.

Plus, with everyone talking about the new, aggressive Delta variant, we share a few stocks that will benefit if we see renewed lockdowns and mask mandates. [57:38]


Wall Street Unplugged | 785

When everyone is calling for a crash… don’t listen

Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on main street.

Frank Curzio: What’s going on out there? It’s August 4th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. I’ll tell you a little story here. In 2020, almost every retail investor research firm economists, none of them saw the COVID crash coming. This was even when COVID started hitting the US, which was January. We saw that everything was closing in mid-December through January, into February, in China. The COVID started spreading every place, and I was covering a lot of research firms and what they were saying. Goldman Sachs said they were going to see a quick V-shape recovery. COVID is only going to last one quarter, quick bounce back right away. Same was said for J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup.

Frank Curzio: All on positive. “Hey, this is just a small bump in the road. We’re going to be fine.” But every economist out there, every economist out there was predicting a quick recovery. Nobody saw the market crushing. Nobody saw lockdowns coming. Even at the beginning, we’ll never lock down. We’ll never wear masks, which is fine. I love the fact if you try to go on YouTube and try to find Fauci and everything that he said at the beginning… Again, nobody knew. I’m not putting that on him. But just the fact that you can’t find that anymore, that they took those off the internet, is pretty funny. We’ll never be that. Cuomo, we’re New York, we’re going to be fine. We survive anything. Now it’s locking down again, with De Blasio, who’s a fucking idiot. Anyway, I won’t get into a rant on that, but nobody’s said a lockdown coming. Sure enough. It never happened in the United States ever.

Frank Curzio: A lot of people didn’t see COVID spreading to every single state. And again, none of them thought this was more than a bump in the road. And that road was, hey, a long, straight bullish for stocks, bullish for stocks no matter what. Now, some may claims, Frank, we did see a quick recovery. Well, it was quicker than I thought it’d be. But only because the government injected 10 and a half trillion dollars into the economy, which again, nobody’s forecasting, in February. It was insane to think the Fed would inject even $1 trillion of the economy in February once the shit started the fan. What do we see in the credit crisis? In the day it was about $470 billion injected to save the world economy. You don’t want the government ever spend a trillion dollars, no way, we’re into 10 and a half trillion. And what? At least another trillion coming to infrastructure, is going to continue.

Frank Curzio: But we live in a different world now, right? Where everyone, Wall Street economists believe that printing is great. It’s awesome. And it carries almost no risk. What’s the risk? We didn’t see any risks from printing our way out of the markets collapsing, the world economy crashing in 2008, 2009, 2010. We didn’t see. What did we see? There was no really negative effects. This time around, hey, we’re going to shut everything down. We’ll leave a couple of businesses open. We’re going to shut everything down, lock down, stay in your home. You’re going to die. All this, all this stuff, right? All this crazy stuff. Even though the death rate in America is pretty much on par for every year over the past five years, same amount of people died every year. They just still die from the flu, which we don’t have the flu anymore. Right? Flu disappeared. I wonder why, but this is not a flu, COVID is not the flu. You can’t say that. They might not actually allow me to say that, this podcast may be suppressed. That’s a different story.

Frank Curzio: But we do live in a different world now. Where printing is fine, 10 and a half trillion, we’re fine. We’re good. Don’t worry about, keep printing. There’s no risks. What are the risks so far? We haven’t seen it. Probably seen, we’re definitely going to see it one day. But the point is very few people saw this crash coming, and you know what, something that I’ve learned over my career, when nobody sees it coming that’s when crash has happen in the stock market, right? Nobody expects it. You can look back to 2007. The foundation started cracking housing. Nobody really saw it was coming. Yeah. The big short, you have a couple of guys here and there, but 99.999% of people didn’t see it coming. Even the investment banks who were highly leveraged did not realize how leveraged their partners were until later on in 2008, believe me, they didn’t know. Got that insurance from AIG, knowing that AIG would never be able to pay it out.

Frank Curzio: Talk about that in a second, credit false ROPS, they didn’t really know the full extent to it. But in 2007, unemployment rate was still low. The marks are flowing near all-time highs. What do we see? Record profits. People buying tons of shit, mostly on credit, but who cares? They are buying stuff, which is great for the economy. It’s we want to see, more people buying stuff. But when you look back, nobody, that the Fed banks, nobody understood how much leverage was in the system. And that even includes, look, the Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan’s, and they will leverage out the ass, but they didn’t see the scope of it, where just a 5% pullback in home prices would crash, not just the subprime market, which some of them saw. Okay. Some prime markets definitely fuck. Oh my God. It wasn’t a surprise. That’s not what happened. It was the leverage of those subprime loans.

Frank Curzio: The massive leverage where all you needed was a five-step pullback in home prices, and you saw a massive crash of the entire world’s economy. Since most of these banks were leveraged over 30 to one. When we look back, that crash, that collapse, surprised 99.9% of the world, including almost every analyst and economist. We started pulling back, I remember Cramer was on TV telling you buy Bear Stearns, I’m not ripping him, because he also told you buy the FAANGs 12 years ago. When I was working there, we talked about FAANGs. So not ripping him, but people well didn’t really know. Even people on the inside to the full extent what was going on. Most analysts will tell you to buy Zip. Self-selling shops were upgrading stocks and reissue by ratings on their favorite ideas.

Frank Curzio: Even when we saw Lehman fail, right? Lehman failed, and the government was like, wow, this is cool. Okay. We can let someone fail. We’re not going to bail out anyone. And the Fed and governments still had no idea, the scope massive leverage in this bubble, because that quickly turned. The markets did okay when they first let Lehman fell. Afterwards they are like holy shit, Lehman’s tied to every single thing. It’s all tied together. And the markets had a crash again. The investment banks, they finally got it. In March, April, May, 2008, that’s why they all turned to AIG for credit insurance, buying credit, full swaps, and actually going short now, reversing their positions. Goldman’s classic for this, fully hedged, they own over 22 billion of these swaps, which actually bet against the failure of AIG as well. How awesome is that?

Frank Curzio: That’s fantastic. They’re betting against AIG failing. You look at Wall Street, I tell you all the time, they’ll throw their mother off a bridge if they know they can make a fortune off of it. If you’re laying there and you have a sock on, they are going to take that sock off of you and give you nothing. That’s Wall Street. You have to realize who you’re dealing with. AIG, they had no fucking clue. They had no idea, because even though the banks were short, AIG did not have trillions to back this bet. Just like, hey yeah, it’s fine. Yeah. We don’t see it coming, fine, fine, fine, fine. I remember the Fed, the government when they found out AIG, wait a minute, AIG is involved? How’s that possible? It was great. But it’s in The Big Short, if you read the book or saw the movie, sometimes you’re too right to where the market crashed so much, there was nothing left to get paid from your short positions.

Frank Curzio: It’s almost like suing an insurer, a small insurer for $50 million and winning. That’s awesome. Hi five, everybody is happy, lawyers, everybody getting paid. That’s great until they go bankrupt and you get no money. Now, what happens? Nothing. Kind of the case with AIG. Where am I going with this? What’s the history lesson for? Why am I boring you to death with this crap? Because on CNBC, this is on Monday or Tuesday, there was a story titled, 20 strategists predict the next time and size of stock markets, next big bubble. 20 strategists. Of course, you had to pay for it. It’s funny that you have to pay for that, even though these are people that are going on CNBC and they are providing research, right? Goldman Sachs. So basically, CNBC is selling Goldman Sachs research to everybody else’s, which I think is fun. That’s okay. That’s fine.

Frank Curzio: But the first thing I thought when I saw that headline, is you should be long stocks, because they’re probably not going to crash camp for a while. Why is that? The story, again, 20 strategists figure next time and size of stock markets, next big bull. Why? Because crashes don’t come when everyone expects it. That’s the one certainty. The one certainty that I can give you from my close to 30 years in the markets, they don’t crash when everyone expects it, they happen when nobody expects it. When your guard is down. The fact is, so many skeptics out there, including you, including me, including a lot of the public, right? That’s usually a great thing for stocks. That’s what you want to see. We want to see people nervous. We want to see people they’re not all in. They skeptical the market is going to crush. That’s a good thing for stocks.

Frank Curzio: It’s bad when the whole entire world is bullish and swing into one pendulum, because what happens? You’re going to swing, and usually use swing a lot, lot further, further than you ever think. Just like during a credit crisis, just like during COVID, we fell a lot, lot more than what people thought, before coming back. Now, you heard me warn about inflation a few months ago. Look, I was early at the party. The inflation of it, that’s probably the first time that I made that argument of something that really worried me in my career. I can’t remember talking about inflation, to where runaway inflation could really crush the world economy. And why is that? Because it removes the safe haven of the Fed as a bailout option. You have to print less money, stop buying bonds or tighten. Either tight monetary policy to stop it. You almost have to force a recession. So, it takes the Fed out of the equation.

Frank Curzio: This isn’t bailing out someone with money, whatever, J.P. Morgan was over leveraged. They’re in trouble. Okay, well, we’ll get a backstop them and they’re going to be fine, no, the Fed can’t do anything when you see runaway inflation. They have to say it’s transitory, because if they don’t use that brilliant word, transitory, which means we don’t care how inflation goes forever, because it’s going to be temporary. Even if it’s six months, a year, they’re not telling you, right? Six months, a year, two years, they’re not telling you what transitory means. It’s brilliant to brilliant strategy to say transitory because it allows them to keep the machine on without worrying about where inflation goes. Otherwise, if they didn’t say it’s transitory, what do they have to do? They have to tighten right away. Taper, whatever the word they want to use.

Frank Curzio: They have to. They don’t want to do that. They’re not going to do that heading into midterm elections. It’s huge. No way. The Fed is a political body no matter who it is. If it’s Republicans, Democrats, it’s a political body now. It’s not separate, no way. When I was talking about inflation, very few people were talking about it back then. I remember getting an email saying Frank come on, inflation. Look at the 10 years. Not here. I’m like, man, don’t you see the labor shortage out there? You see what’s going on in the world? Come on, you guys have to see it, but nobody was really predicting inflation, other than the dents and shifts who were predicting massive inflation every year since they were 12 years old. I’m not talking about those people. They have an agenda. They’re going to say no matter what facts change, they’re going to change their opinion, this is what they believe. That’s fine. People love following that cults and stuff like that. That’s good.

Frank Curzio: You’re going to lose a lot of money doing that. But I understand. I understand that people just follow cults and they need to be told what to do. I understand that. I get it. Investing in anything outside of what those two guys told you to invest in over the last 10, 12 years, you would’ve made a fortune. And with them, you would’ve made anything. That’s beside the point. But you look at inflation in every market, to me was pretty obvious, injecting 10 and a half trillion into an economy in a way where it’s going directly to consumers. There was like check. It wasn’t like the credit crisis will let us backstop the banks. It’s why they make them look safe, and it’ll be up to the banks to lend, and we have rules with the bank so they can lend, how much they cant. No, this is, hey, just keep throwing the checks. Give it to them, right in the bank account. Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom.

Frank Curzio: And then what did you do? You open everything up at the same time. The economy’s fine. We’re good now. Everything is cool. And what are you going to see? You’re going to see massive demand, massive shortages to build products, make sense. Which will then lead to rising commodity prices, which leads to higher cost for businesses, which forces what? It forces them to raise prices. That’s a definition of inflation. However, over the past six weeks or so, we’ve seen Cooperman talk about inflation, warn about inflation. Ray Dalio, Druckenmiller, Gundlach, these guys are a lot smarter than me, talking about inflation. Making public statements, that they’re very, very, very worried about inflation. For me, how do I look at that? Because now everyone’s talking about it in mainstream media, it’s no longer a massive risk that nobody sees coming.

Frank Curzio: You can’t. Even the Fed, the past few meetings talked mostly about inflation, how it’s transitory and all that bullshit, right? They’re talking about it now. But again, market don’t crash from something that everyone is talking about. They crash when nobody expects it. When the public is totally confident, totally bullish, when they’re all in and they can’t go lower. You know what? We don’t have those conditions today. Stories like the one I mentioned, CNBC, I see them all the time. I see the whole time. I’m connected to everything, right? All these stories, sending me stuff again, Bloomberg, if it’s Thomson Reuters, if it’s Wall Street Journal, you name the sauce. I read this stuff all the time. Even the newsletter industry, how the market’s going to crash 50% next month, it’s going can happen on September 7th. 50% crash, be prepared to buy these gold stocks. Even though gold stocks tend to fall even more during crashes, but buy these gold stocks, you’re going to make a fortune.

Frank Curzio: They know fear sells, right? That’s how they generate revenue. Tap into the emotions of people. Think about the media, Delta variant. Is it spreading? Yes. Is it causing more hospital visits? Yes. Is it deadlier? No, not even close, not even close, much less deadly than the original strain. Nobody cares. They are not going to tell you that. They are not going to tell you that few people are dying. They’re going to say, hey, hotspot areas are here. Hotspot areas are there. It’s got mandate masks now. Talk about later, but mandate in New York first place to mandate that you need the vaccine to go indoors. Are you kidding me? You need to have the vaccine. You need it. Even though if you get the vaccine, you’re safe. You’re perfectly fine. But I need everybody else to have the vaccine. Everybody else must take it. I don’t care if you believe in it. I don’t care if you don’t.

Frank Curzio: I don’t care if you got COVID already or you have antibodies in your system that obviously are lasting longer than antibodies in the vaccine, right? Since they providing booster shots, but yet people with COVID already, not really getting it. You see some few isolated cases and some I had COVID, I had the COVID shot, it was McConnell, one of those poking leaders. Got the vaccine, now I got COVID and even said, he goes, it’s very mild, very mild, it’s not bad, but still it’s not deadly, but why are they pushing this issue? Everyone take the vaccine. You’ve got to go crazy. Their job is to scare the shit out of you, because you watch more TV. They make more money from advertisers or politicians, makes all the sense in the world. They gain more power, more control that they want. Every politician wants. We all know that by now. I don’t care what side you’re on.

Frank Curzio: If there’s one thing we could agree on with Democrats and Republicans here, is that the mask mandates that are going on right now, people are freaking fed up on both sides. That’s a one thing we’ve come together, enough of this crap, enough of it. But it’s all a system. And even in my world, right? When it comes to Wall Street, analysts and market pundits, right? Every time they make a prediction, it’s hey, I’m bullish on the market. Almost every time someone says they are bullish on the markets, they have to follow it with the word but. We’re going to see a market crash soon. I’m bullish up to next year, but I could see the market crashing soon. Do you know how many times I heard that over the past 10 years? Markets still, near all-time highs. Not only is that a bullshit forecast, as analysts like to hedge themselves, like politicians these days, right? They’re never to admit that they were wrong. Say, hey, if the market crash, I told you it was going to crash. If markets go high, I told you I was going to go higher. I said, yeah, later on. To me, that’s useless. It’s useless, absolutely useless.

Frank Curzio: But hey, you make some crazy forecasts. That’s how you get on TV. That’s what people want to see. They don’t want to see you go on TV and say, hey, you know what? The markets are cool here. We’re going to see a steady trajectory higher, earnings are going to be pretty strong. They don’t want to hear that. They want to hear either it’s a 50% market crash or we’re going to continue to hit new record highs going forward. It’s going to be insane. That’s what they want. That’s what people want. People love to be entertained. That’s how we’re built. We need entertainment. If you have any doubt at that, just look wherever you are right now, wherever you’re listen to this, maybe you listening in the car, don’t look, I don’t want you to get into an accident. Everyone’s on their phone. Everyone’s on their phone, everywhere. You walk to a mall. I’m not just talking about kids, even adults, everybody’s on their phone.

Frank Curzio: Even at dinner tables, go eat dinner, look at the cup. Then you’re talking to each other. They’re on the phone. Everyone’s on the phone. They need to be entertained. I got to read something. I’ve going to watch. That’s how we’re program. That’s fine. But it’s almost as an analyst, you can’t say you’re bullish publicly without also using the word, but, right? Smoking will overheat and eventually crash sometime in the future. That’s the way it is. But here, here are the facts right now that you need to understand. Interest rates are at record lows. The Fed has no intention on raising them anytime soon, especially into midterm elections, no way. Corporate profits are at record highs, surging. You look at the quarters these companies are reporting. You can say, well, they are higher as a percentage, I’m not talking about higher as a percentage, I’m talking about, forget the percentages, the actual earnings, holy shit.

Frank Curzio: Some of these companies are killing it. Margins are accelerating, meaning these companies have incredible pricing power. Facebook raising individual ad prices by 47% last quarter, 47% and getting it. I’ve been at supermarkets lately, they’re selling 12 pack case of Coca-Cola, canned soda for $7. One case. You could buy three, you could go buy two for 7.50 and then they give you one for free. $7. And you know what? People are buying that. They’re buying them at that price. Corporate balance sheets have never been stronger. What till you see the amount of buybacks that are coming. You can’t say companies announced that they increased their buyback. It’s to more buy backs, but a lot of this is going to happen after earning season. They’re in a quiet period. See companies buyback, you going to see much more announcements going forward.

Frank Curzio: Was it Micron? First dividend ever. We’ve got so much freaking money. Fuck it, let’s just pay a dividend. It’s crazy how strong these balance sheets are. If our banks used to allow massive leverage with able to take on excess risk of their own balance sheets to generate profits, they can no longer do so. Regulation, Dodd-Frank. You have the stress test to keep them in check. This regulation doesn’t allow them to take on massive leverage anymore, so that helps avoid another credit crisis. Do we have a lot of leverage in the markets? Absolutely. But you had to put things in perspective. You can’t talk about one side without talking about the other, because household wealth is at all-time highs. People have so much money. Now they’re spending it on discretionary stuff, which we’re seeing in the numbers. They are also paying down credit card debt and putting cash towards savings. Savings rate is at 9%. That’s about 50% higher than the average savings rate over the last 20 years.

Frank Curzio: You do not see that, you do not see that ever. When people are saying that’s bad for the economy, it means people are spending less. And if they’re spending less, companies are generating fewer profits. No, they have so much money that that’s working with saving, with paying credit card. Look at J.P. Morgan. I’m not making this stuff up. Just look at the economy. They will like to surprise, which is a negative that people are paying down that credit card debt and they’re saving more money. That was amazing to me. I don’t remember seeing that. I don’t remember seeing that in a bull market ever, with stocks at all-time highs, Because when you pull back, you want to be a little safer, put money to savings. No, they do whatever, they got so much money, hey. Do whatever they want with it. You look at productivity, through the roof, new technologies, faster internet allow companies, people to produce much, much more in less time. That continues to get better and better.

Frank Curzio: M&A, near record highs. You have a good business model, you have a good idea, you almost certainly get funded. Actually you know the right people, you’ll get funded. You have a company that was successful that you sold to somebody, especially in technology, biotech or whatever and you want to start a new company, you’re getting funded. 30, 40, $50 million like nothing, like nothing. There was a company that was just bought, Blackstone $900 million for Reese Witherspoon’s company. By the way, some of the things that she’s produced on HBO, just so many great, great movies, series that I saw, dedicated to women and stuff. Had Nicole Kidman, fantastic, good for her. But 900 million, holy cow, 900 million. That’s huge. You get funding anywhere. And as for the inflation argument, when you look at inflation during the early stages, it’s great for them economy and businesses. That’s what the Fed wants. Yes, it’s getting ahead of itself. It’s a little scary, but it’s much, much, much, much better than deflation.

Frank Curzio: As long as we don’t see double digit, crazy runaway inflation, we should be okay over the next few years. People say, what about the valuation argument? We’re trading at 21 times forward earnings. That’s a huge number. It is a huge number. I mean the average of the past five years was 18 times, the average over the past 10 years was 16 times. However, you have to take everything, you can’t just point out one stat. We have interest rates at near record lows, record lows, and we’re in a market where it was just flooded with money. Now, we’re opening up to the world. You’re looking at where earnings are expected to grow north of 12% over the next 12 months, while sales are expected grow north of 7%. That’s probably 3X higher than the projected gains annually that we’ve seen over the last 10 years. I would say maybe three, 4% earnings have grown, maybe a little bit more than that, 12%. At 12%, you guys will be about your earnings at that growth rate, 21 times is not an expensive valuation. It’s not, you can’t say it’s expensive.

Frank Curzio: Just have interest rates record lows. They’re going to stay there for a very, very long time, which is great for companies and borrowing. And then we got the million pound gorilla, which is the Fed who refuse to let our markets even correct a little bit without throwing tens of billions at the economy almost immediately. Whether it’s buying bonds, extending benefits from the government, you’ll get fiscal and monetary policy, but a monetary side with the Fed. Keep it straight to low, key buying bonds. Why? Why? Record profits, GDP back to normal. We have a clear runway of our growth right now. Unemployment is low. It’s probably not going to go any lower because they continue to get benefits and continue to extend them in some states. But it’s crazy. But when you take everything as a whole guys, we have a market with favorable bullish conditions. We do.

Frank Curzio: And I’m not going to say, but, but in a year from now, all this shit going to hit the, right? We always have to say that. But I’m not using a but this time. There’s no but. Is there concern about inflation? Yes, because nobody was talking about inflation. Now everyone’s talking about inflation, it’s on the table. That was my argument when we saw China Towers, it was on the table. Everybody talking about, we’re going to go to war with China. It’s a big trade war. It is crazy. Every single deficit, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy. This is all. Smoke and mirrors, all these, China or the US talking their book, behind the scenes they’re going to make it work. China’s the biggest growth engine in the world and the US is the richest nation in the world. They got to get together unless they both want to just crush their economies. They just got to figure out behind the scenes, what they’re going to give each other, shit that we don’t know about. Pretty simple.

Frank Curzio: It makes no sense for them not to get along. It makes no sense for them to not find some middle ground. But the trades amount to nothing. 10 billion, 20 billion, 30 billion, here is nothing in the scope of things when you talk about trade, it’s nothing, nothing. And what happened? South Park have gone higher and higher. Now, I will say going forward, you’re not going to be able to buy anything and make money like you did around a year from now, right? When we started to bounce back. Actually we started bouncing back around March, April. You could have bought anything and you doing well. When you see small caps are getting hit with those inflationary concerns because not all companies have pricing power. Look at Clorox’s numbers, interesting. Not everyone’s going to be immune to the chip shortage, Texas Instruments, Caterpillar, Netgear.

Frank Curzio: You see rising costs are going to smash margins for some companies, but overall expect growth to continue to work. Netflix, AMD, good numbers they put up. Major tech companies, FAANG names are going to continue to grind higher. Are you kidding me? Running the world, just huge profits, incredible pricing power, great balance sheets, investing in all kinds of new technologies, everything. The reopened names that have yet to hit pre-COVID highs, even names that are taking a hit this week because there’s a couple places that are assigned to go crazy with Delta and oh my God everyone’s going to die. I got the vaccine, you’re perfectly fine, but we’re going to close everything and everyone else should get the vac. I’m so concerned about everyone else getting the vaccine, even though I got them safe, I need everyone else to have the vaccine. You just need to have it. It’s fucking crazy when you think about it, it really is.

Frank Curzio: But the reopen names, look at the airlines, look at Boeing. Boeing, put up some great numbers, those orders aren’t going to come in for the MAX planes, of course they are. As soon as they get the approval, they got the approval, basically in the US. They’ve got to get it in China and Europe pretty soon. These are planes that provide massive, massive margins. 30% efficient, less fuel usage, lighter weight, massive, massive profits for these major airlines that have to upgrade their fleets. It’s got to happen. Boeing is one of the only games in town that MAX is the best player in the world in the market. Airbus is trying with that Neo, but not as good, not as good. The reason why a lot of those orders didn’t transfer over to Neo like you would see, they’re waiting for the MAX. Airlines, somewhat pre-COVID highs. Even some traveling stocks, off pre-COVID highs. I’m not talking about buying, just lumping them all together and saying buy the cruises. No, I know a lot of people have been on cruises, but be careful, these things are trading higher.

Frank Curzio: And again, 35, 40%, I think capacity right now for these guys, and they’re trading at higher levels on enterprise value and assuming their debt than they were pre-COVID, that doesn’t make sense to me. And we’re closing a few places now, which is why they getting hit a little bit this week. Infrastructure names. We know that new bill is going to be announced however they push it through. A lot of companies are going to benefit from that. Also what I’m looking at, small cap names that have gotten hit along with that sector for no reason, other than we’re part of the Russell, we’re small cap stock, we’re selling off due to inflationary concerns. A lot of names hitting my radar now. These are small cap stocks down 25% from their highs. You’re not hearing a lot about that because the markets overall in the all-time highs, is because it’s made up of massive companies, with FAANG companies, what is it? I think it’s 19% of the S&P 500 now.

Frank Curzio: Those are hitting highs or close to highs, that’s going to continue to drive the market higher, the bigger names, a lot of small names have gotten hit. When you look underneath the hood, it’s still growing like a weed. Business models perfectly intact, great management teams, seen a lot of these names come on my list, expect those recommendations in Curzio Venture Opportunities going forward, and a lot of recommendations in those areas I have said, from Curzio Research Advisory. But I know guys, it’s tough to be bullish. It’s not the cool thing to be bullish. I get it. I’m out there, I know. Especially since a lot of us, almost all of us have friends that are struggling. I have several friends, two, three of them who are in pretty bad shape because they had businesses that were closed due to a COVID. Because they had few employees, they weren’t able to get any of PPP loans, that are struggling. There’s people out there we all know.

Frank Curzio: It’s tough to say, hey, I’m bullish and things are good, but things on the corporate level, if you’re looking at profit across the board, interest rates where they are, holy cow, lots and lots of bullish conditions and lots of skeptics, which you need to have for the bull market to continue to go higher. You need people to be worried. They’re worried they’re not going to put all their money into the market, they’ve got to constantly talk about the risk of the marketplace. That’s what you need. It’s when everyone’s on one side saying, hey, the market’s going to surge, we’re going to continue to grind higher, higher, higher and higher. That’s when you have to worry. That’s when you have to worry, because markets and I said it earlier, they never ever crash when everyone expects it, they crash when nobody expects it, nobody sees it coming.

Frank Curzio: It’s usually caused by something you’re not reading and mainstream media. Talking about sectors that I like, sectors that I like going forward, and that includes one sector, which definitely going to benefit from more money printing ahead. Low interest rates forever. Gold, I’ve never seen the conditions more ripe to own gold in your portfolio. Don’t own 50%, don’t put 50% in your portfolio, but you should have a good allocation. Maybe five to 10% into gold. Margins are incredible, the industry is ripe in terms of supply and demand and you’re going to hear a lot about that now, because the person I’m interviewing today, this legend is arguably one of the smartest names in entire resource industry. He has been at this for 30 years holding executive positions, some of the largest mining companies in the world. His name is David Garofalo, who’s now the CEO and president of Gold Royalty.

Frank Curzio: David is the former CEO of Goldcorp, which is one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. He was instrumental in his sale to Newmont, which created the largest in the world together. He was a CFO of Agnico Eagle, another massive company. Named Mining Person of the Year. He’s got all these awards. Amazing. I thought I was going to talk to him. He had this stuck up attitude and I’m great, because he’s checked off all the boxes and I’ve been around executives like that, that have half the resume this guy has and are very, very cocky and arrogant. I like that. That’s not a bad quality in a CEO, but David is just a regular guy. This is going to be an awesome interview. He’s going to talk about Gold, where he thinks it’s headed and it’s not this fluff forecast, all right, this guy from Gold thinks he’s surge it. He provides a lot of great data behind his forecast.

Frank Curzio: He also breaks down the most important segment within the gold industry that everyone should own and they should own it for today and for the long-term. It’s for reasons that even caught me by surprise, and you’ll hear it during the interview. Let’s get to that interview. The one only, David Garofalo, right now.

Frank Curzio: David, thanks so much for joining us on Wall Street Unplugged.

David Garofalo: Good morning. Thank you for having me on.

Frank Curzio: I want to start here, because we’ve got so much to go into it with Gold Royalty, you’re Chair and CEO, but you’ve been doing this for a long time, right? Almost your entire career, 30 plus years. I want to talk about the gold market and where you see gold prices. Because no matter what stock you’re running or what company you’re running, a lot is dependent on gold prices. You would think today where quantitative easing every place, inflation really, even at the metric that the Fed created to show no inflation, which is CPI, is at 5%. It’s supposed to be 2%. We know that the inflation is not transitory. We know the Fed is definitely going to keep rates low forever. But yet we’re not really seeing that movement in gold stocks. So, should we be looking at that as an indicator? Or is it, hey, it’s all really about the dollar inverse relationship, but how do you see gold? Because right now, for me, we should be well over 2000, but we’re not.

David Garofalo: Yeah. Look, I think some of the hesitancy around gold is the fact that general equity markets are still quite buoyant. And quite often gold is invested in an asset class, in a volatile equity market. The equity markets have been going in one direction up to this point, but I would say the valuations in the general equity markets have been stretched beyond recognition. Correction is inevitable there. In the face of quantitative easing, the basement of paper currencies, low interest rates, you have to look at ways to protect your capital and you should have a significant portion of your portfolio invested in gold. When you look at gold as an asset class, if you buy into that investment thesis about gold as an asset class, there’s various ways for you to play it. Now, you can buy the physical quite readily.

David Garofalo: You can line up at a bank with your identification, pick it up and find a way to store it and incur the storage costs. You can buy the gold equities and of course, what that provides you is leverage to the gold price and leverage to expiration success. But it also exposes you to inflation risks in operating capital costs. You could only ETF, which is physically backed by gold. That’s another way in achieve economies of scale and your storage costs because you’re buying part of a pool fund. And then finally, what I would say is, you could buy the royalty vehicles, which provide you, I think the best of all worlds, which is leveraging the gold price, leveraged checks, bracing success because the royalties are on the individual properties. And then to the extent they are drilled out and grown geologically, you’ll get that upside exposure.

David Garofalo: But what you’re insulated from is operating capital cost inflation. Frank, my argument is right now, we’re headed into an inflationary cycle in the mining business as well. We saw this 10 years ago when we saw both base and precious metal companies start to invest significantly in new mine capacity. Because of the downward trajectory in reserves over the last six or seven years in the gold business in particular, that cycle of reinvestment is going to start happening again against the backdrop of inflation in the general economy. And so I do expect there’s going to be significant inflation. I think that’s some of the hesitancy that investors are experiencing when they’re looking at gold mining equities. And so I think the best way to play the gold rally, which is inevitable, we’re going to see $3,000 an ounce plus gold. You want to buy into the royalty vehicles in my view, to get the best of all.

Frank Curzio: Now, for me, and I don’t have the experience you have in this industry, right? You’re an industry legend. I would argue right now, it’s one of the best conditions I’ve ever seen for gold, at least the past 10 years, would you argue even longer? Because you just mentioned, I’m not even talking about the current conditions with quantitative easing, everything’s out of control, with runaround trillions, like it’s nothing. I mean TARP was 480 million, right? And that was to save the entire banking system. We’re throwing trillions out like nothing. More infrastructure coming. Again, we’re seeing massive inflation, the Fed has to say transitory, because if they don’t, they have to be raising rates right now, and that’s going to force a recession, which is probably also going to be a gold as a safe haven, who could be a good spot.

Frank Curzio: But also what you mentioned just now is, the reserves were, being in the majors and being involved in the majors, just the amount of spending that took place. A lot of these companies had a deleverage which resulted in less reserve, less drilling. For me, it seems like I’ve never seen conditions like this where people should own gold, but you’ve been doing this 30 years, lived through tons of a boom and bust cycles. I’d like to get your opinion on that.

David Garofalo: Well look, I think you correctly pointed out there has been a diminution of reserves in the gold business, because the industry has been focused on deleveraging. There was a quite a party 10 years ago when gold and base metals were rallying dramatically post the credit crisis. Base and precious metal companies were building new mines and that inflated costs dramatically, operating capital costs and undermined that leveraged proposition that investors were looking forward to the gold price went up and gold equities and base metal equities underperformed their underlying commodities. And so they rightfully spent the last half a dozen years harvesting what they built and getting good returns on that investment capital, returning capital to shareholders and de-leveraging. Affected the net zero debt, mining business is at net zero debt, which is remarkable.

David Garofalo: That’s actually inefficient from a capitalization standpoint, but they overcompensate for the amount of debt they strapped on to build that new capacity 10 years ago and they returned capital to the shareholders. And so they don’t have a very efficient balance sheet right now, though they are substantially deleveraged, they’re well cashed up. And so they’re going to have to put that capital to work in the ground, because what we’ve seen is a 40% decline in gold reserves over the last seven years from peak reserves. Inevitably that will lead to diminishing gold production. That’s likely to stay in place for at least eight to 10 years, because from discovery to first production and new gold deposit, you’re looking at 10, 15, sometimes 20 years. We’re not going to see a reversal in that downward trajectory in production for the foreseeable future, but the industry has to replace her depleting reserves.

David Garofalo: And again, that’s happening in the base metal side as well. And given the robust demand we’re seeing for copper and other base metals as we look to decarbonize the economy, because we need those metals to decarbonize, we’re going to see significant investment in new mine capacity and a significant inflation in both capital and operating costs. Again, the way to play gold in my view is either owning the physical or owning gold royalties that provides you, again, physical exposure but also the upside to the exploration that the underlying operators achieve through the reinvestment in the ground, in new expiration targets.

Frank Curzio: You are the former presidency of Goldcorp, right? You helped with the merger with Newmont, 2019. I think you were there for three years. Over the past 30 years, numerous executive positions. I would think after this merger, you could have done two things. One, you could have just retired, or two, I’m sure your phone was ringing off the hook with offers, and yet you go to relatively a startup, which is Gold Royalty. What did you see in that company to say, hey, you know what, some people love the startup atmosphere and you’ve been on the other end of the spectrum with running a very large company and say, hey, I love that startup. There’s a lot of excitement and a difficulty in bringing that to market. But what were some of the things that you saw, for someone who could have took a job, I think almost anywhere for you to go to go Royalty, I think that that was such a huge story.

David Garofalo: Well, it’s kind of you to say, and I’ve spent the last 30 plus years in operating roles. I ran Goldcorp for three and a half years. I ran Hudbay Minerals, a base metal company for six years. Before that was with Agnico Eagle for 12 years. I’ve spent 30 plus years in building mines and been involved in the construction of 15 mines across the world and operated countless more of those. I have come from an operating perspective. What I’ve done is made a macro call about where we need to be at this point in the gold rally. I think we’re going to have a sustainable rally for a number of years, given as you correctly pointed out the need for governments to continue to print money and keep interest rates low. But I think where we want to be positioned, where I wanted to be positioned is at the development end of the spectrum. Because of the significant under investment we’ve seen in both base and precious metal companies into new mine capacity over the last half a dozen years, I recognize the need for companies to build mines again.

David Garofalo: But I didn’t want to be exposed to what I think is going to be an inflationary cycle in mine input costs. What I wanted to be is at the end of the spectrum that provides capital to the mind builders, developers, emerging producers, and really that’s what wealthy companies have done in past cycles. They acted as the dedicated bank to mine developers. What I’ve tried to do in assembling the team that we have at Gold Royalty, is put together a team that has operating expertise, not just financial expertise. If you look at the board and management that we’ve assembled, collectively we have over 300 years of experience in mine operations and development. I want to emphasize that mine operations and development, a lot of other royalty companies are being run by people that have done nothing but built spreadsheets their entire lives.

David Garofalo: They’ve never built mines. This group, this management and board has built mines, countless mines. They have that expertise which serves two purposes. One, it gives us a clear eyed view and perspective on the underlying risks of the mines that we’re financing. We do, I think, extensive due diligence and we’re in a good position to do that, because we’ve been in their shoes, we’ve been builders and operators. But also it gives us access, having people with this tenure in the mining business gives access to royalty opportunities that might not be available to the general market. We don’t want to get involved in auction processes where royalty opportunities are bid up to astronomical levels, which undermines the rate of return proposition, like the deal we announced last week with Monarch, where we picked up royalties in the Abitibi region. Québec one of the most prolific gold districts in the world, that was a bilateral discussion through a relationship we had.

David Garofalo: I worked in the Abitibi for many years, when I was the CFO at Agnico. It gave me access to people that I knew there. I got in front of world the opportunities before they were available to the marketplace. And so we’re allocating that capital expecting to get double digit rates of return as a result. Again, the macro call is, get involved at the development end of the cycle, that’s where the action’s going to be. That’s the macro call, but in doing so, make sure that your shareholders are not exposed to the underlying inflation risk and input costs on the mines, which I think is inevitable. What I liked about the gore royalty portfolio is, it had a significant mineral endowment. We had 18 world peace with an underlying reserve and resource position of over 32 million ounces of gold equivalent across the Americas and low political risk jurisdictions.

David Garofalo: That’s a great foundational element to build your royalty business from. That’s how Wheaton Precious Metals was founded 15 years ago. When it was spun out of my former employer Goldcorp, it had royalties in a collection of Goldcorp’s assets that provided the foundation from which it diversified and grew into what’s now the second biggest royalty streaming company by market cap in the world. It’s not a coincidence that Ian Telfer who founded Wheaton Precious Metals had founded Goldcorp, is now the chairman of my advisory board. He brings that expertise, that institutional memory. He pioneered the whole streaming model and we’ve got him on board. It’s not only important to have that foundational element of reserves and resources that we inherited in the spinoff from gold mining, but having the right people that have done this before and have the mine operating expertise, the expertise in founding large cap mining companies on our board is, I think a significant competitive advantage relative to our peers in the royalty space.

Frank Curzio: Yeah, that’s pretty cool. I don’t think there’s too many people that could say that, I don’t know if I’m saying this correctly, if you’re the boss of Ian Telfer, telling him what to do, that means you’re pretty high up there.

David Garofalo: We’re peers. We’re peers. I would never call him, I support it for sure. He’s Emanon Greze of the mining business, and we are super lucky to have him, not only as chair of the advisory board, he’s one of the founding shareholders of Gold Royalty Corp as well. He was a significant investor in our IPO and our pre IPO round of financing as well. He’s put skin in the game here.

Frank Curzio: You talked about it briefly, and I love the inflation argument because you really don’t hear that costs in an inflationary environment within the cost structure of why royalties are better to own right now. Right? You always hear low risk of development, almost no risk and development. Lower capital costs in terms of a few people running. It’s more like a finance company, but just for seeing that, which is definitely happening right now, which is the massive amount of costs that go into mining and that inflation and being immune to that through this, that that’s a great argument, right? It’s such a great argument that you’re seeing a lot of competition in this space. Is it difficult to find good royalties, good projects, where you have the majors?

Frank Curzio: I felt the streaming companies did a great job when the majors were kind of, I wouldn’t say in trouble, but they were deleveraging and trying to raise capital. I know they’ve given away some of those projects, which was easy. Now they’re fully capitalist, like you said, no net debt, it’s incredible how strong these companies are. And then you have other companies forcing their way into this space specifically in gold and royalties. How difficult is that environment and how much does it help to have a person with you, credibility, Ian Telfer, you have that advisory board when I’m sure if you’re calling someone they’re going to always pick up the phone for you?

David Garofalo: Yeah. Look, I think that is a tremendous competitive advantage and you’re right, there has been a proliferation of new royalty entrance in the space for the last couple of years, recognizing that the juniors and emerging producers who’ve had difficulty accessing capital need a means to do that. In the royalty and streaming company to try to provide that means. There’s been too many of them that have been introduced into the space. There’s going to be a rationalization, a merger and acquisition cycle that’s likely to happen over the next year or two. And we’re leading the way. We announced our merger with Ely Royalties, a number of weeks and months ago, which we hope to close later in August. And that will more than double our market cap and increase our royalty portfolio fivefold from 18 royalties to over a hundred royalties.

David Garofalo: And now with the access acquisition of Monarch, we’re going to be at about 106, 107 royalties on a proforma basis, which puts us as a leader of the pack, post the merger with Ely. We’ve started the music, it’s musical chairs now. We saw rationalization and merger activity in the royalty and streaming space about six, seven years ago when we last had a cycle of new entrance into the space. Now, we’re going to see that rationalization again, because the name of the game is the lower costs of capital, because the fact that we were acting as a bank for the emerging producers and developers in the space. It’s important to make maintain our competitiveness by having low cost of capital. And the way to get low cost of capital is to get a reread, get big enough, so you attract more traditional institutional investors and then the name, that drives up our multiple, drives down our cost of capital, makes us more competitive as we bid on new world, the opportunities to supplement what’s already a very impressive portfolio of royalties and streets.

Frank Curzio: Pretty obvious here and this question is going to be obvious to you and may, but let’s talk to everybody else out there who may be a little bit familiar with royalty companies. Because when I look at the cash that you have on your balance sheet, and I don’t know if it’s updated, because I know you guys just did a deal, which is 58 million. I don’t know if that’s included in your deal that you’ve done only a few days ago. I think this presentation might be a little bit older than that. But when you look at this chart here and having this amount of money, I mean, the leverage that you guys have to really get into deals, to really sit down. Now you have great management team, credible, everyone knows you throughout the industry. You’re sitting down, they know you have cash.

Frank Curzio: Explain the importance of that. I know that’s a simple question for you and I, but people out there, when you look at royalty companies, the balance sheet is just as important as the current royalty streams.

David Garofalo: Yeah. We have no debt. That’s the other thing I would add, is we have the largest cash balance. In fact, today our cash balance is closer to $90 million US, and after the Ely merger, some of that cash will go towards a completely new merger, and we’ll end up somewhere between 30 and $60 million in cash portfolio, depending on what Ely shareholders elect in terms of receiving cash or stock. They have an election to do a combination thereof, or all cash, all stock, it’s up to them. We’re still going to be extremely well capitalized even after the merger. And we’re going to have cashflow. We’re going to have a for cash for royalties today, by next year, that will more than double. Our trajectory in terms of cashflow will see our cashflow increase five to six fold over the next five years.

David Garofalo: And so we will have access to cashflow, no debt and very little in terms of G&A costs. Our business is eminently scalable. I’m going to have after the Ely merger, half a dozen, full-time employees. I could run a business 10 times the size of the one we’re going to have post the Ely merger with the same employee base. Every dollar we add in terms of our royalty revenues is going to go right to the bottom line for shareholders. So, not only will it give us the ammunition to do more royalties and compound returns, but over time, we think we’re going to be in a position to introduce a dividend.

Frank Curzio: That would be incredible. People love dividends, even if it’s a 1% dividend, people just love it, right? It’s crazy.

David Garofalo: And that’s what we have, is a sustainable business model.

Frank Curzio: Let’s talk about that, in the future what you plan to do. I think you have royalties in five countries right now. Are you limited to the countries? Or it’s like, hey, we’re going to go anywhere we think we can get a good deal. And of course I know you, especially you would know some of these areas you’d probably avoid at all costs with their governments. But are you limited to that, and what are some areas you may be looking to explore? Because there seems to be a lot of projects out there, but again, I mentioned earlier, there is some competition. I’m sure other people looking at those as well.

David Garofalo: Yeah. Look, what we have, I think which distinguishes us from a lot of the royalty companies, is extremely low political risks. Even after the Ely merger and with the Monarch acquisition, which we announced earlier this week, we are 100% in the Americas and low political risk jurisdictions and more importantly jurisdictions that welcome mining. They have a rational regulatory framework for mining. We have strong geological models underlying our royalties, big resources, significant mineral endowments. And so when we’re looking at other opportunities to continue to diversify our portfolio, we’re focused first on the geological model, we want a strong deposit with significant expiration upside. That’s what really provides leverage for our shareholders as they look at investing in us. But we also want to be in countries that have a rational regulatory framework, that welcome natural resource development.

David Garofalo: We want to invest whole, so in our operating teams, they have a track record of developing mines in those jurisdictions. You may see more diversity, geographical diversity going forward, but I can assure you that low political risk will still be a key criteria for us in any investment that we make.

Frank Curzio: And last question here, which is the most important by far. Do you determine where you’re going to buy these royalties based on how the cycling is in these areas? Somebody told me about you being very, very into cycling. You go everywhere around the world. So yes, I had to bring that up.

David Garofalo: It would be helpful, but I promise investors that I won’t make it a key criteria. I think there are more important criteria than where the best mountains are for cycling.

Frank Curzio: No, that sounds great. Well, David, thank you so much for coming on. You’re a big name in this industry I think, with Amir Adnani, very lucky to have you, chair, CEO of Gold Royalty and feel free to come on whenever you want to update portfolio, seems like you guys are in great position and I wish you guys best of luck.

David Garofalo: Well, I have to say I’m lucky to have Amir as a partner because he had the vision to found GoldMining 10 years ago, buying at the bottom of the cycle. And that’s what underlaid our royalty portfolio. If he hadn’t accumulated those assets at the bottom of the cycle, I wouldn’t be in the position I am today to create the royalty vehicle we have. I’m lucky to be a partner with him believe me.

Frank Curzio: Now, well said, well said. Well thank you so much for coming on and hopefully join us again soon.

David Garofalo: All right. Thank you.

Frank Curzio: Hey, it was great to interview David. Like said, just a regular guy, right? Messing around with him, Ian Telfer. But you would think, hey, tell me the guy is not really a big shot. He is. He’s one of the biggest names in the industry, Gold Royalty, great job getting him in. Ian Telfer, just amazing, amazing people, the board of directors, advisors and stuff. The royalty argument, okay? I’ve covered royalty companies all the time. Yes. You don’t have the risk of high production costs and all this stuff. And then more finance companies, you keep costs low. That was always there. And then these things started trading at a huge premium to everybody else, right? Especially with the past four, five years as gold started rebounding.

Frank Curzio: But when he said owning royalty companies is a way to avoid the inflation cost, a massive inflation cost that gold companies are going to see just like everyone else. You talk about labor, equipment, tires, the commodity costs are huge, especially for that business. Right? It’s so capital intensive. That made a lot of sense to me. I was like, well, I didn’t really think of it that way. Hey, you want inflation hedge? Yes, of course you want to buy gold companies, but really the inflation costs that they’re going to see within that industry, especially the gold prices don’t go a lot higher, right? They’ve been around the same price for a while now, a couple of years, up a little bit over 19, down 17, 1800, whatever. But now you’re going to see profits go down if their costs higher.

Frank Curzio: How do you avoid that risk? Is these royalty companies. These guys are set up where at the beginning, it’s like, royalty coming. Now, they got royalties coming in, you have the Ian Telfer, and David calling you up with a huge, huge balance sheet. You’re going to take that call no matter who you are in the industry, no matter who you are. I don’t care who you are, whatever, that’s amazing. They’re set up, great position. They continue to expand by more and more royalties but that’s a couple of in great, great position. I love that into you, world class management team and has tons and tons of potential, so much so. I am an investor in this company where I invested at a secondary offering around this price. But I have a pretty good position in this company.

Frank Curzio: It’s something I believe in, something I’m not selling anytime soon and I’m glad to hear from David and I’m glad you heard from David. Again, every company has risks. This is a company I’m investing in around this price, also got warrants because I invested, being a credit investor and stuff. But this is something I plan on holding long-term and I love everything that’s going on with this company right now. But again, do your due diligence, there’s risk in every name. And like I say all the time, this podcasts is about you, not about me. Let me know what you thought about that interview. You can email frank@curzioresearch.com. That’s frank@curzioresearch.com. Now, let’s bring in Daniel Creech. There’s a lot going on. What’s going on Daniel? How’s everything?

Daniel Creech: Frank, what’s happening?

Frank Curzio: I think the biggest story right now-

Daniel Creech: Oh boy.

Frank Curzio: Has to would be the Delta variant. I didn’t think it would be a big deal. Companies are saying, it’s not a big deal. Even those companies on the far left, Coca-Cola and stuff are like, we’re not seeing anything from Delta, any less spending or whatever. However, we have states going crazy right now, mask mandates back in place at some places. To Blasio who’s, man, that fricking guy, that guy has done everything in his power, he’s done such a fantastic job, destroying New York City. It’s been perfect how he destroyed New York City and he continues to do so. It’s so fantastic. I don’t know how any idiot in New York could vote for that guy. I don’t care, Democrat or Republican, I have no idea how you support his policies by going to New York City right now and saying it’s not the shittiest place. It’s 10 times worse than it’s been in the last 35, 40 years.

Frank Curzio: I don’t know how you can go to New York City and not say that. He just continues to make it worse. I have no idea who supports this guy. I have no idea, no idea, but it’s personal to me. Anyway, he’s mandating, I think it’s the first place in the world, maybe not the world but in the United States, but I think I read in the world, mandating that we, you have to provide proof that you got vaccinated in your passport in order to go to indoor places, which is fucking insane I think. Anyway, I want to get your thoughts on that, because the reason why we’re talking about is not even a personal opinion, whatever, it’s impacting stocks. We’re seeing cruise companies get nailed on this news, more closures. Who knows, if we’ll go to lock downs, I have no idea, but it is seeing an impact in a lot of stocks.

Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. The scariest thing there outside of the New York City rant, is this is the biggest risk to markets, period. The government can change and does change rules, moves the goalpost, et cetera, et cetera. And just one small caveat there, Frank, the Delta is not the biggest story, just like the coronavirus wasn’t the biggest story, it’s the reaction to, and the enforcement that’s the biggest story. That’s really what’s scary because you have no power and control. That’s a very humbling thing to think about. I’m an optimistic guy. I’m not worried about the markets right now. However one day doesn’t make everything. There’s a good country song called, One in a Row, which is hilarious, but that’s not the way you invest in markets. You look at this today, you got headlines saying, hey, Shake Shack is down five, 6% along with other restaurant brands, because this big deal, if you have to show proof of vaccination to be a customer, there’s no way that this divisiveness and divide, is A, not done on purpose because you’re choosing to enforce something when you don’t have to.

Daniel Creech: And B, there’s no way this doesn’t affect margins, customer bases, revenues, all types of things going forward. You just got to figure out, okay, how crazy is this going to get? It’s going to get a lot crazier, spoiler alert. And how long does it take for pollution to flow down river and get to everybody else? Unfortunately these are the dog days of summer, Frank, this is a boring time. We have some good earnings. We could be asked about that, but there’s really not a whole lot going on outside of government overreach, which has been the same story for over a year now. That’s depressing. We got to entertain people somehow else today.

Frank Curzio: I’m not entertainment, but you did you just call it a country song? That’s pretty cool. People don’t know how much you love country, right?

Daniel Creech: Yeah. I love country music. Old country music too. The new stuff’s tough to take, but yeah.

Frank Curzio: Who’s your favorite artist of all time?

Daniel Creech: That’s an impossible question. I don’t know that one. Everybody from Waylon Jennings and George Jones, the old school to Toby Keith has a good sound. He’s not new obviously, but he’s one of the best out there. I like those guys that sound old and old school and country, people that have fiddles, steel guitars.

Frank Curzio: Cool.

Daniel Creech: Not most of the stuff on radio today.

Frank Curzio: I think you just got some more fans, people who-

Daniel Creech: Well demographically I’m our best, age-wise.

Frank Curzio: Conservative. Wait, but he likes country, so, okay. I’ll give-

Daniel Creech: I like classic rock too. I’m a huge Eagles fan. I cried when Glenn Frey died, as millions of others probably did.

Frank Curzio: Yeah, no classic rock. It’s awesome. But anyway, getting back to the CDC, which I love, because the CDC, nobody knows what’s going on. I got to tell you, I think this is something that for the first time in a long time, Democrats and Republicans are coming together on this.

Daniel Creech: Wrong.

Frank Curzio: They’re pissed. No, no, they have no freaking idea what’s going on, because CDC is not being clear. Okay, you can’t go into indoors unless you’re vaccinated. How do you know if you’re vaccinated? We don’t. We’re not going to know. Okay, great. So you have to wear a mask when you go into restaurants, but you’re allowed to take them off when you sit down again. Okay. That makes sense. All the communication coming out there, even from Rochelle Walensky, who’s a director, who I can’t see her being there longer than a couple of weeks. They got to get her out of there right away. She’s a disaster. Obviously there’s someone pulling her strings and you see them all away. But she went on TV, I think it was three, four days ago. I was watching her and she said, the push for everybody to get the vaccine. You need to get the vaccine no matter what, but they talking about kids from five to 11 and why it’s so important that we get this passed.

Frank Curzio: Five to 11 years old. Five to 11 years old. Right? That’s where my kids are at. My oldest is 13, but five to 11. She said this right on TV, anyone can see it, that kids in that age group die more from COVID than the flu, that’s what she said. That’s an absolute lie, that’s a lie. And you know on what stats that’s based on? The CDC. If you look at the CDC, it shows a little over 500 kids died from the flu last year. And then you’re look at around 300, less than 300 died from COVID and they were saying that out of those 300, 25% of them are probably not even accurate, because some have underlying conditions. And it was the same condition, I forgot what it was. It wasn’t like pneumonia or whatever, but it was a condition that some of the kids had, that they couldn’t really identify if it was really from COVID or whatever.

Frank Curzio: But if you’re actually lying about your own statistics on TV, how could anyone trust what you’re going to say? Because if there’s science behind it, that’s fine. Give us a science. Right now for me, I’m not vaccinated. I believe in the vaccine, my mom has. I think if you have underlying conditions, you’re crazy not to get it. I think you should get it, especially if you having lung conditions and you’re over, I would say 55 and some of that’s researches to death. For me, I have antibodies. I had COVID already. There’s no science behind it other than the CDC telling me Daniel, that we don’t know how long those antibodies will last. Even though they’ve lasted for longer than people that have the vaccine, since you want to provide a booster shot. Why am I going to inject myself with 10X antibodies when I already have them? Right?

Frank Curzio: It’s a good time. It’s not like I’m against it. I’m not pissed off and whatever, but the fact that I have someone telling me, F you, you have to take this vaccine no matter what, or you’re not going to be able to do this, this and this. I’m talking about places out of Florida and Texas, right? Because that’s how it’s going to be in New York, California, San Francisco, mask. And the CDC said, while we’re looking into it, even though they don’t have the authority, we are looking into mandating vaccines. Holy shit. which country do we live in? I think from what I’m hearing, what I’m reading Daniel, on both sides, both sides, Democrats, Republicans, they believe a lot of this is all bullshit and none of them believe it. Because they’re not seeing the science behind it. The CDC is all over the place. Nobody knows what the hell is going on.

Frank Curzio: I don’t know how this is going to turn up. I do know if you’re going to get to the point where you’re forcing vaccinations and we have lockdowns, you’re already providing some areas with mask mandates. You’re going to see chaos. I really believe that. You’re going to see chaos.

Daniel Creech: Yeah. Absolutely.

Frank Curzio: People do not want to go back to that again. No way.

Daniel Creech: No. And rightfully so. The mental health effects, the physical health effects, all that stuff. Suicide rates, it’s sad stuff. You can’t rewind the clock. You can’t go back. But yeah, just knowing that that stuff is still back on the table should scare everybody. Like I said, I’m an optimist, I hate to project fear on that side, but you have to pay attention to what’s going on, and the investing way or the way to deal with this through investing is to keep buying the big guys, because you’re not going to have more enforcement and more control and also have prosperity spread across a large group. Just like the FAANGs and the Amazons and the big conglomerates did so well during COVID, that’ll be the exact same thing going forward, depending on, and again, we’re in this waiting mode here of summertime, because there’s a lot of scariness coming on, there’s these headlines of, hey, what if they do?

Daniel Creech: Think about the test just to people’s, investors optimist, if you come out and think about more lockdowns or more travel restrictions, everybody’s naturally going to go, okay, there’s volatility. You’ll probably see some sell off in stocks. But then what are we trained to think? Just like hamsters, Frank, well, the Fed is going to come and print more money and more PPP loans and more stimulus checks. So, everything’s fine. It worked last March. Look at record highs stock market. That’s the scary thing because people were already conditioned to, Wall Street’s already hooked on easy money with QE and the fear of talking about, talking about, talking about tapering and all that. It’s getting harder and harder to hide all the clowns in the circus, Frank.

Daniel Creech: I’m trying to provide value here because this is a tough waiting scenario, but keep buying Facebook, keep buying Google’s, watch what politicians do, not what they tell you. And another big conglomerates and easy one is Blackstone. Oh my goodness. I think they’re the largest owner of residential real estate now in the US. I think I read that right.

Frank Curzio: They’re huge.

Daniel Creech: Been a fan of that stock for a while. No credit deserved. I do not have it. I have not recommended it. But I’ve been following that and it’s hard not to jump on the conglomerate bandwagon as we continue going down this tide of the government’s just pushing everybody and herding us to sheep, Frank.

Frank Curzio: I could see what Delta if it’s causing more deaths, if we see that. Hey, this is causing more deaths, it’s extremely dangerous. I could see that. I think anyone would see, okay, we have to be careful, but it’s not, right? It’s not, we all know that. It’s milder than the original strand. Then they say, well, we’re going to provide mask mandates for the areas that, and this is the CDC, that the areas are most exposed to this, or we’re seeing most cases. Which areas is that? Well, we don’t know. Some areas they were saying, there was two deaths in the area the past month. And they’re like, okay, well, that’s one of the areas that needs masks. There’s just nothing behind it where it’s like, okay, this happens, this happens. No, it’s all, okay, we think we should do this. We think we should do that.

Frank Curzio: And you know what? It does result in a lot of crazy movements in stocks, where we’ve seen a lot of those names, the reopen trade names get crushed, cruises are getting crushed. I think this is surprised that we’re seeing masks mandates again. I think that’s a surprise to the market. I think people were like, no way we’re not going to see them. And now with the Blasio in New York saying, indoors we need to see a passport you’ve been vaccinated. It is absolutely insane. But if we really see that in some areas, holy cow, you could see a migration even more crazy now than to Texas, Florida and stuff like that. But more to the point here is the stocks are getting impacted, I would use as buying opportunities. Look, politicians are trying to squeeze the most out of this for power. They are trying to squeeze the most out of this, right?

Frank Curzio: That’s why no one’s talking about Delta and deaths, which is the end all. We should be talking about the death rate. That’s what’s important. People dying, right? But we’re not seeing that from Delta. We’re not seeing that at all. Very, very, very few. Why they don’t disclose that, I have no idea why they don’t disclose that. Why don’t they don’t disclose that 90% of people who got the vaccine will not get affected by Delta? Will there be 10%? Yeah. 90%, over 90%. They won’t put that in perspective. They won’t say 90%. They just say, hey, these people in Massachusetts had the vaccine and they got affected by, it doesn’t happen often, but I don’t care the agenda, but when it results in companies listening to them where they’re closing places and they’re issuing mask mandates, holy cow, it’s getting crazy out there. It’s going to result, listen, we’re go to open up eventually. People are going to get sick of this bullshit.

Frank Curzio: There’s no facts behind it, which we see right now, if you looking at the science, it’s going to result in a buying opportunity for a lot of these names, especially, the airlines I was talking about, there’s travel related stocks I’m talking about, but you’re going to see these things pull back probably five, 10%, use it as a buying opportunity. Because this is only temporary. They can’t go with this story and continue to push this agenda without any facts. And even the fact that it’s coming from Democrats now, saying, we want to know why we have these mask matters? Why are you doing this?

Daniel Creech: You don’t think they can keep pushing this for a while? Give me a timeline I’ll-

Frank Curzio: A timeline, no more than a couple of months. I would say 2 months.

Daniel Creech: That’s easy. I’ll take that. I take the over on that.

Frank Curzio: Two months before you see this mask mandate-

Daniel Creech: There are no coincidences, Frank, this will last until at least the elections next year for the midterms.

Frank Curzio: They are searching for stats and they just can’t find them of why they need to do this.

Daniel Creech: Hey, two plays, if you’re back on the mask mandate thing, which you make a good point. 3M, ticker MM, 3M company. And then Frank, do you know APT, Alpha Pro Tech?

Frank Curzio: No.

Daniel Creech: Mask manufacturer, I guess. Is that how you say it? I’ve seen that over Twitter, they are out of China though, I believe. Are they in China? No, they’re headquartered in Canada. I’m sorry. Alpha Pro Tech, I’ve seen that come across to our briefing signs a few times, just as a mask play and thing. A couple of tickers there to look at to your point as they go down the mask mandate in several areas. And also if, hopefully the next stage on the road down to mandatory vaccines would be testing, because I’ve seen a lot of headlines about, if you’re a part of the federal government or worker in the federal government, you either, I believe it’s either, not one or the other, or not both, but if you don’t get vaccinated, you have to submit to regular testing. Did you see that Frank?

Frank Curzio: No, I didn’t.

Daniel Creech: Okay. I think that’s the case and I could be totally wrong. However, the point there is, testing, so just like Fluidigm was an old friend of ours in CVO, does testing and rapid test, very high accuracy. There’s a handful of testing and or vaccine candidates still out there, that you could probably play if you want to dive into that space and play on the headlines and the current environment.

Frank Curzio: Okay. We want to try to provide ways for you guys to find new ideas to play off, fit where, we all have opinions about what’s going on, but no matter what side you’re on, you want to be sure you’re able to benefit, right? Because you get to see different stocks, move in different directions based on the news on what’s happening. Some of them provide great opportunities to buy some of these names and some of them provide great opportunities to really take some profits and get out. That brings us to earning season. Earning season has been pretty insane. I don’t think I’ve seen an earning season like this in my life with so many companies have beat, I think we’re near record highs on beat. And the beat is massive and people say, well, you’re comparing it to last year. These are analyst estimates and they just destroying the analyst estimates, which means if they’re reporting higher profits in the S&P 500, which was 23, I think, it’s only 21 now, right?

Frank Curzio: Because we’re seeing the market that’s holding steady, going tiny bit high, but earnings are rising, which is going to lower the overall PE. It’s amazing to see which companies have pricing power and which companies could pass on those costs because they’re all seeing higher costs from commodities. If you look at the housing, I think they have a basket of the commodity index related to housing is up 35% year over year. And this is as of, I believe a few weeks ago when bumper already had come down a lot, still up a ton from its lows, but it’s come down a lot from where it was. But passing on these costs, you’re seeing which companies could do that, which companies can’t right now. Clorox got nailed. Look at NICU who got nailed. Texas Instruments had a terrible call, but yet you’re looking at, look at the Under Armour’s and look at Nike’s.

Frank Curzio: These are companies, Under Armour I think has so much upside potential here. I really like this name, but it’s rare that you see, especially during this earning season, Dan, that accompany has just, I think it went up 6%, same set running into that quarter and then reporter earnings blew out the numbers and went up another, whatever, five, 6%, whatever it was. Usually what you’re seeing right now and this is a stack guys, the average company that’s beating, which is most than the average company that’s beating on both the top and bottom line, is going up only 0.8%. Yet if you miss or report a weak quarter, you’re going down close to 2%. If you look at that statistic, think about that. There’s still, mostly S&P 500 reported, but if you’re buying a stock, you see when it reports, because even if they blow out the numbers, chances are you’re not going to get a huge push higher from that.

Frank Curzio: And if they happen to miss and you read it wrong, you’re going to get nailed. The risk reward of buying the stock into the quarter, it’s why in one of our newsletters, I didn’t recommend anything, which I recommend a stock every month. I’m like guys, I’m not going to just throw something at you that’s going to be down 20% or has an opportunity to 15% because of one quarter, but that’s the market right now. Under Armour really killed it. That’s a name that I think was great this week, but we saw a lot of other names report, get hit a little bit and then start coming back. Square is another one that, $27 billion acquisition, holy cow, that’s a big acquisition for those guys.

Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. And plus it was interesting because they’re buying that company. I don’t have the name of it in front of me, but it’s a buy now pay later theme. I don’t know if that’s more of a loan portfolio kind of a book play, just annuitizing all these types of loans or whatever. I’m sure they’re favorable interest rates and all that kind of thing, but just fits with the big picture of this margin/loan/buy now pay later type deal, but Square’s been knocking it out of the park. They have great services. That’s been a great a winner for CRA, not in there anymore, but it was great while it lasted. Clorox, the big thing there, not only to your point, you’re matching comparables to a week last year and analyst estimates for the most part, weed that out.

Daniel Creech: But margins for Clorox dropped almost 10 percentage points. That is a massive move for a huge company. It was because of higher manufacturing and logistics costs. The important thing will be going forward is, are they going to be able to raise prices from here going forward? Or are they going to be able to lower prices on the manufacturing and logistics costs to get those margins back? Because there’s no way management team can sit on their hands for the next quarter and not improve this one way or the other. The low hanging fruit is probably to assume the manufacturing logistics costs will continue higher for the next quarter or two. So they got some maneuvering there to do. But obviously they’re an essential business. If they’re getting sold off or whatever on a pullback, that’s a longer term, I don’t think that’s a trade. I think that’s more of an investment.

Daniel Creech: Keep that in mind when you’re looking at these conglomerates. And also if stimulus money does run out, I know there was an Arkansas, I believe it was Arkansas judge that reinstated the $300 unemployment benefits, that’s going to go through some more legality. But if stimulus does get cut off to a certain extent, that’s going to have a ripple effect through pricing power or through the economies and really see who has pricing power and consumer choices. Lot’s going on, like I said, Frank, it’s just a boring summer day-to-day.

Frank Curzio: Yeah. But you know what I do like? I like when I’m seeing different companies report and how they report and how they deal with this. Ford, I thought it was amazing, because Ford actually blew out the numbers and everything is great. You know what that’s based on? That’s based on future orders of their cars. They’re doing exactly what Tesla did, where everyone ripped the shit out of Tesla for doing. These are future orders, people putting down a few hundred bucks on the car.

Daniel Creech: They also raised guidance, didn’t they?

Frank Curzio: Yeah, expecting that these sales are going to go through, right? You’re expecting that. But I have to tell you, and this is a research firm I respect a lot. They are called IHS Markit, M-A-R-K-I-T. Right? Talk about US manufacturing, they say, July PMI takes up to record high, but supply delays and price pressures also hit new peaks. We’re under the impression based on what companies are telling us, that hey, most of that risk is behind us. I bought a mattress. You’ve probably heard me say this a lot, I bought a mattress, well, going on five months ago. And after three months, they said it’ll be there. They said, it was supposed to be there, I think it was 10 weeks. And then went to three months, went to four months. They actually gave me free towels and stuff like that. We’re going on five months, I still don’t have that mattress. Okay?

Frank Curzio: What they’re saying right now, which these guys cover this, great. There’s a great research from, I love Evercore, I cite a lot too. Sharper expansions and output, new orders and employment, cost pressure spike amid record shortages and effort to build stocks. Supply delays and price pressures. The supply delays are hitting peaks. They’re still not at the bottom yet. We’re not seeing, okay, now it’s finally, we’ve seen this open up. We’re not seeing it open up. And now guys, we’re getting into more floods and stuff like that, if you read the news. If you’re looking into China, right? That’s going to hurt shipping. And now, we’re going into the most important season for tons and tons of companies, which is the holiday season, where people spend the most money. And now, you talk about massive delays.

Frank Curzio: So you have backlogs at record highs because everyone’s booked, just like they account for my mattress that I purchased already, several thousand dollars, I need a great mattress. I got two back surgeries, so that’s something I pay up for. But you’re looking at this company, book that, show the backlog. I’m pretty close to saying, F it, I’m canceling, I’m done, because I don’t know what I’m going to get it. You going to see the same thing that a lot of these car orders, are you going to wait a year to buy an EV, when you might be able to get one from Tesla in three months? I don’t know. Maybe you do, but eventually you want to get a new car, but how long are you going to wait? And some people have leases and they have to, they’re forced to buy even earlier.

Frank Curzio: But when you see stuff like this, backlogs rising at record highs, which is a great thing, right? Businesses built up, but you have to deliver. The fact that it’s taken longer, longer to deliver, you’re bringing in that risk of these people canceling orders. That’s one thing I don’t think that’s factored into a lot of individual companies, especially Ford. I hope they sell a lot of cars. I covered Ford. I said it was a huge buy. They have some of the best EV technology. I’ve been saying that for five years, because I’ve been going to the consumer electronics show, they spent billions, spent a fortune, they got wrecked doing it. And now people are seeing that. But at this price, at where it is, and the fact that very few cars are being produced and they’re talking their EV portfolio up so much, even though it’s a 2030 story, they’re saying, we’re going to have these cars released soon, a couple of years or whatever.

Frank Curzio: For me, that’s bullshit and I think it eventually going to hit them. But that’s another company that I enjoyed listening saying, wow, I really don’t believe these guys. They’re talking about everything’s okay right now and it really isn’t and that’s still a big story. It’s still a big story with chip shortage.

Daniel Creech: A lot remains to be seen. I mean, we talked about it a week or so ago. Taiwan Semi says that the worst of it is going to be past us and it’s going to improve on the auto sector and they are increasing production. To your point, you got to execute. You’ve got to deliver. Who knows if that’ll be over the next quarter or the next two quarters. Unfortunately our hands are tied and you just have to see who’s telling the truth.

Frank Curzio: No, I know. I know. I will say this, we talked about Square really quick, I just want to talk about a couple of companies guys, which I know you guys love hearing about is, Square, how much should they pay? Was it 27 billion?

Daniel Creech: Somewhere, it was 25 to 30. I know it was between that. [crosstalk 01:21:36].

Frank Curzio: And this is a company with a market cap, a little over a hundred billion. That’s a massive purchase. I’ve seen a lot of people, even Shiff, came out and said, you’re overpaying for this. This is crazy. It’s a crazy bid, you haven’t paid for it. The stock went up to the tune where they added $12 billion in market cap because of this deal and this is an all stock deal. It just got a lot cheaper. If they had that agreed upon price, which they do. I don’t know when it’s closing, but usually it’s based on 30 days and what the average price is and whatever, but that’s how good that deal was. But when you look at it in that terms, it wasn’t such a bad deal. Another stock that I really like on this pullback is, Take-Two.

Frank Curzio: This is a company I’ve followed for 15 years, in the single digits and it pushed 200 pretty close to that. It sold off a little bit to towards the stock portfolio. It’s like 155, down 10% of their earnings, because they said it might delay a few titles. This company always delays titles. It’s not a big deal. These titles are going to come out, the new Grand Theft Auto is going to come out. But every time these guys come out with a quarter like this, where they beat, but they always, their guidance expectations are always very, hey, we’re not going to meet them or whatever. The stock pull backs turned out to be a big buying opportunity. It was only down 5% after they reported earnings. Can they be top by my all across the board, except for guidance, they just conservative, they are and not even that big, just conservative, a little bit delayed titles. Again, those come out. But then in the middle of that day, we saw China come out and say, video games are bad. And then-

Daniel Creech: Not bad. They’re opioid for the mind.

Frank Curzio: Tencent got nailed.

Daniel Creech: My parents got on me a few times about playing too many video games or being a zombie or being a brat or whatever. But I never remember my mom or my dad saying that they were opium for the mind. That’s pretty good.

Frank Curzio: I know.

Daniel Creech: You got to like those guys.

Frank Curzio: You got lucky though. The video games that we played and the shooting games, that results in us going around killing innocent people. Right? That’s according to what a lot of people think. We all go there and think it’s real life and start running over people like we do in Grand Theft Auto. We got lucky that that didn’t happen to us. Oh my God.

Daniel Creech: I know. Us? Hey, we didn’t grow up together. Come on, what do you mean us?

Frank Curzio: That’s true. I am little bit older than you. You got a good point there.

Daniel Creech: That’s good.

Frank Curzio: You got a good point there. All right guys. So listen, we talked about a lot of different stocks. We talked about a lot of different things here. One last thing is, and I don’t even know if this is worth speaking, because we’re talking about earnings already here, Daniel, but you look at the inflation picture where, I don’t think it’s so much as a concern, as I said earlier, because everybody’s talking about it. But it is a concern for some companies, especially look at Clorox, no pricing power. They didn’t have pricing power. And those companies are going to be nailed. Just pay attention guys to that quarter. Your company may have blown out the numbers and it pulled back, and you’re like, why the pull back? Is because a lot of those names have ran up into the quarter, which is normal.

Frank Curzio: But you want to look at the underlying trends, who’s hurt from the chip shortage? Is it going to end anytime soon for these guys? It’s not impacting Apple, iPhones and things like that. These guys have leveraged with Taiwan Semi, and Samsung and the places that produce a lot of this stuff, where they outsource almost all this, in such facilities and stuff. But who’s got the most leverage? Who does well during that environment, you seen a lot of companies do great. V-Nee Yeh didn’t really impact. AMD didn’t really didn’t impact, but other companies it has. Pay attention to that. Pay attention to the cost. Who’s able to pass on those higher costs? If they’re able to pass on higher cost. Who cares if commodities and their expenses go up 20%, if you could increase your product by 25% or even 47% like Facebook, it’s not a big deal. It’s not going to hurt them, but it is going to hurt a lot of this small competitors.

Frank Curzio: And that’s what you’re seeing right now, especially the bidding war, and this is what I heard from inside, from some of the great, great report. I think is from Maersk in the shipping industry, where the big companies, like the Amazons or Walmart or whatever, right? Shipping their goods, they’re outbidding everyone else to the point where they’re losing money to really crush a lot of their competitors. And their competitors, if you’re small cap, mid-cap, you can’t compete with those bids because you can’t afford to lose that much money and it’s going to result in a lot of your products not getting to the markets they need to get to, which is going to result in cancellations and a lot of those sales going over to the big guys, which they’ll make up later on. They can afford that. They can afford to lose tens of millions of dollars, billions of dollars over a year, when they know due to what they’re doing right now, that’s going to result in 3X, 5X, the amount of profits, because we’re going to eliminate almost all the competition, and that’s when we can really raise prices.

Frank Curzio: A lot of that stuff is going on, pay attention to conference calls. It’s not too hard to see if you’re paying attention. I think that’s it, Dan, we covered a lot of shit, right?

Daniel Creech: Yeah. There’s always a lot of, for a boring summer month, there’s going to be plenty. We’ll keep you in tune. Don’t panic. Don’t get too depressed. Just sift through the noise and enjoy. Enjoy the hot days and markets will be back here. Same time, same place.

Frank Curzio: And if you’re a parent, enjoy, because your kids going to go back to school pretty soon. Enjoy that. That’s going to be awesome, this way you can hang out and relax a little bit. I love my kids and we are going to Universal for a couple of days. We were supposed to have a vacation, but I got, I won’t get into it what happened. But instead we’re going to just go to Orlando and hang out for a few days, the family, right before they go back to school. Enjoy it. Enjoy the weather, enjoy with your families, have fun. Pretty cool. Dan, thanks so much for coming by, I really appreciate it buddy.

Daniel Creech: Cheers everyone.

Frank Curzio: All right guys. Listen, that’s it for me, as you know we launched our newest product, The Big Money Report, Luke Downey. It’s doing fantastic. Thank you so much for all the support. We still have that cell going on. It’s under a hundred dollars for the entire year with a money back guarantee. If you take a look at it and hate it, you can come out of it and get money back guarantee. No questions asked. We’re not going to force something on you that you don’t want, but we know what you do see is research, which you could see for free on our website, curzioresearch.com. It is awesome. It is great. That’s why we hired him. That’s why we’re launching this product and we’re also going to launch more products around him. We’re very excited about that. Thank you so much guys, because the support for this newsletter, support for Luke yeah. We’re seeing really, really strong demand for it as we are for most of our products right now.

Frank Curzio: People are dying for really good research, no BS research, they want to be educated and that’s result in a lot of live new subscribers coming onto our list, which is really, really great news. I just want to say thank you so much. If you want to subscribe to The Big Money Report, and find out more, just go to www.thebigmoneyreport.com, that’s www.thebigmoneyreport.com. Okay guys, that’s it for me, have a wonderful week. So much for listening. Thank you for all your support. And as always, I’ll see you in seven days. Take care.

Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility.

Inside this episode:
  • Rant: The market isn’t crashing anytime soon [00:30]
  • Guest: David Garofalo, president and CEO of Gold Royalty [33:36]
  • Educational: The best stocks for another lockdown [57:38]
Frank Curzio
Frank Curzio, founder and CEO of Curzio Research, is one of America’s most respected stock experts. His research is regularly featured on media outlets like CNBC’s Kudlow Report, The Call, CNN Radio, ABC News, and Fox Business News. His Wall Street Unplugged podcast—ranked the No. 1 “most listened-to” financial podcast on iTunes—has been downloaded over 12 million times.

Editor’s note:

Luke Downey’s “Big Money” system made him enough to retire from Wall Street at just 31 years old…

Now he’s sharing this same system with you in his brand-new growth advisory, The Big Money Report.

Don’t wait another day—start building toward your own early retirement.

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Episodes about Stock Analysis

Two big opportunities for profits into 2023

Why energy stocks are soaring despite lower oil prices... Why Russian oil price caps are a bad idea... And how to play the sector. Plus, why Dick's (DKS) is crazy to raise guidance... and how to profit from retailers' shortsightedness.

Disney just replaced one bad CEO with another

Why Disney made a bad choice naming Bob Iger as CEO... and why analysts refuse to downgrade the stock. Plus, what Best Buy's results say about consumer spending... and why we'll see some crazy deals this Black Friday.

Retail is hurting—except one group

What Target's dismal results say about the economy... Why Lowe's CEO is full of s*** ... And why it's a great environment for one group of retailers. Plus, these hated traders are about to have their heyday.

Disney’s CEO should be fired immediately

How a split government will impact the markets... Why FTX's bailout is terrible for the crypto industry—and we need regulation now... Plus, Disney's pathetic earnings—and why CEO Bob Chapek should be fired immediately.

More Wall Street Unplugged
Real estate collapse

Get ready for a real estate collapse

Blackstone's alarming move to halt redemptions... How private equity is misleading investors... Why real estate could soon plunge 20%... The tremendous ripple effects it will have throughout the economy... And how to protect yourself.

The 3 biggest headwinds for the market

John Petrides of Tocqueville Asset Management explains why the Fed is nearly done with its fast-paced rate hikes... Why a soft housing sector and rising unemployment will be good for stocks... And the three major headwinds for the market.

If you’re bullish, you’re crazy

Why record Black Friday sales will force the Fed to keep hiking rates... Why investors can’t rely on China for growth... Why the bullish argument for stocks is insane... And how to protect yourself—and make a fortune—as they crash.

Why Gen Z is captivated by crypto

Joe Davide shares Gen Z's perspective on stocks and crypto... what he's learned from the current bear market... his process for researching new crypto projects (and some of his favorites)... and why FTX's implosion proves we need regulation.

What we need for crypto to rally

Frank Holmes of HIVE Blockchain breaks down the FTX collapse... how he avoided massive losses from Celsius' bankruptcy... what we need to see for crypto to rally... and his upcoming crypto conference. Plus, the coming recession could last a while.