Frank Curzio
By Frank CurzioNovember 29, 2017

Why Dean Foods Dropped — And the Catalyst No One Saw Coming

Dean Foods

Michael Alkin is one of the smartest guys I know. In fact, he’s one of the smartest analysts on the planet.

It’s not that Mike has a magical sixth sense about what the markets will do (although I wouldn’t doubt it… he’s that good). It’s that after 20 years in the hedge fund industry, he has a deep knowledge of forensic accounting and a practiced, proven approach to investment analysis. And he’s incredibly diligent.

He spends countless hours reading financial statements and annual reports, listening to quarterly conference calls, and talking to company insiders to get to the bottom of the numbers. He’ll literally get his boots muddy in the fields to dig up the dirt (I’ll get to that below).

And this is what has made Mike top-tier when it comes to predicting—with astounding accuracy—what is about to happen in the markets… well before any of the highly known (and highly paid) Wall Street analysts have so much as a hint.

A couple weeks ago, I told you about Mike’s call on Newell Brands (NWL). (If you didn’t see the email or read his report, click here.) But here’s a quick reminder:

This summer, everyone was in love with Newell Brands. But Mike saw impending trouble for the company—and why he’d “be a seller” if he owned the stock. He mentioned it in June during his first appearance as a guest on my podcast, Wall Street Unplugged, and also wrote about it in his report “Newell Brands (NWL)… Trouble Ahead.”

Since making this prediction, Newell is down around 45%.

Then in August, I had Mike on my podcast again, and we discussed another interesting story—this time, on Dean Foods (DF)—a middleman company that buys milk from farmers and sells it to retailers. Mike recommended shorting the company in a February report.

You see, Mike saw a catalyst that would eventually crush the stock. It was common sense, but at the time, no other analysts—including myself—saw it.

Mike wrote about how people tend to think of the price of milk as “inelastic.” But the truth is, the price of raw milk has ebbs and flows, just like any other raw material.

As it so happened, the price of raw milk was down, which meant that Dean’s margins were up—into the low double digits. Wall Street saw this and decided that Dean was going to lead the industry. And investors bought in.

They didn’t see what Mike saw: a “low-margin business without pricing power.”

Mike knew that the price of raw milk would eventually spike, and that Dean would have to absorb the cost because retailers wouldn’t want to pay a higher price for milk.

How did he know? By literally going out into the farmland and asking the experts—the people interacting with the herds every day.

“When you start talking to people who are feeding these cows, and you understand what’s going on, you realize that it’s going to ebb and flow with the cycle. The cycles aren’t too long,” he said on my podcast.

By early November, Dean Foods was down 50%.

There’s a lot of great stuff in that report, and I don’t have the room to get into all of it here, but I suggest you read it in its entirety.

But suffice it to say, we here at Curzio Research are really excited that Mike has decided to leave the hedge fund industry and bring his incredible skills to our research team as a full-time analyst.

Click here to read Mike's original Dean Foods report
What’s really moving these markets?
Subscribe to access daily market updates and exclusive content
More about Commentary
More from Frank Curzio
Bitcoin crashing

Why is crypto crashing?

Don't be alarmed by the crypto pullback… Rep. Maxine Waters is dead-wrong about big banks… Why Trump should be allowed to campaign… And this company's earnings paint a scary picture of the economy. Plus, join our next Crypto 2024 LIVE.

We’re buying the best big bank on Wall Street

Why inflation is surging… Will the Fed cut rates this year? … 4 sectors to play high inflation… Why big banks will thrive—and how to profit from the upside… Plus, China's economy is in worse shape than most people think.

The Fed is in ‘hope-and-pray’ mode

The latest inflation data paints an alarming picture… The Fed's impossible position… Sectors to get exposure to NOW… And the latest breaking artificial intelligence headlines—from Apple to Google to Elon Musk. Plus, ask Frank anything…

Is the Fed lying… or clueless?

Is the Fed lying about interest rates? … Tesla's (TSLA) turmoil… Is the electric vehicle (EV) market dead? … Disney (DIS) vs. Peltz… Levi's (LEVI) strong earnings… And will we have to start paying for Google searches?

Disney

Disney just broke the law

The latest data shows a strong economy—so why are stocks pulling back? … The Fed's in a tough spot… Disney’s illegal tactics against Nelson Peltz… Why Apple (AAPL) will dominate AI… And how AI will transform every industry.

Amazon goes HUGE into AI

Amazon's new artificial intelligence investment… Sam Bankman-Fried won't serve his full sentence… How tomorrow's PCE data will impact the Fed's decision on interest rates… A stock that's immune to the Baltimore disaster… And is Trump Media the next meme stock?