Transcript was automatically generated.

Frank Curzio 00:00

How’s it going out there? It’s Wednesday, December 10th. I’m Frank Curzio. This is the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. Daniel Creech, what’s going on, man?

Daniel Creech 00:13

Hello, Frank. How goes it, sir?

Frank Curzio 00:15

It goes okay. Uh, so, are you happy about Ohio State?

Daniel Creech 00:19

Yes.

Frank Curzio 00:19

I mean, it doesn’t matter that they lost. It’s like a nothing game. You beat Michigan,right? And you won a national title. Now you could actually win another national title. But did that game really mean anything to you guys? I’m just curious. You guys are.

Daniel Creech 00:29

Obviously, I wanted them to win. I know nobody believes this. I was getting crap from friends already, but I wasn’t that surprised that they lost. You called it a good call on taking the points. We talked about that last week. But I was a little concerned. I’m not saying they let down. I’m not taking anything away from Indiana. They played amazing. They were the reason that the Ohio State offense didn’t look that good.

Daniel Creech 00:46

I just wasn’t that shocked that I was shocked that they shanked a field goal as bad as they did. But I wasn’t that shocked that it was close or they lost. Because not to say it was a letdown, but again, the biggest game of the year. They won. Finally, first time in four years. That was the national title for me. So no, I wasn’t. It didn’t ruin anything. They still got a buy. They’re still alive, Frank. Still a lot of seasons.

Frank Curzio 01:07

And you know why people bitch the most at Ohio State fans? Do you know why? Because you guys are absolutely fantastic and got the greatest team in the world ever, every year. And you bitch the most out of everybody. That’s why. Seriously, you guys, like, they wanted to get rid of Ryan Day for not beating Michigan. And he won the national championship. And he won every other game except for that one. I get it.

Daniel Creech 01:24

Doesn’t matter. It doesn’t sound like you get it.

Frank Curzio 01:26

I wish that you guys got rid of him, man. Penn State would have picked him up in two seconds. Oh, I think Ryan Day is a fantastic coach. And listen, Indiana, they’re legit. And I love what that coach did because everybody that plays Ohio State, there’s the same thing. Okay? Penn State was winning against Ohio State three out of the last, like, 12 years. And every single time when they have the ball,

Frank Curzio 01:46

handoff, handoff, handoff, and they kick it back to Ohio State and they win. This guy was like, nope. He knew every play count. He’s like, there’s 17, 18 plays with two minutes left, 2:30 with their timeouts. And he threw deep. And he ended the game. He never gave the ball back to them. And that’s what, I mean, if you’re playing to win, that’s what you do. If you play to lose, then you just, you know, you’re playing not to lose.

Frank Curzio 02:04

You’re just handing the ball off. You can’t give it back to those guys because they’re a great team. And I think they’re going to be fine. I just think those are two of the best teams. But.

Daniel Creech 02:11

The Indiana coach has some great sound bites.

Frank Curzio 02:13

He does.

Daniel Creech 02:14

He should play Kid Rock’s song. It ain’t Cocky Mother if you’re backing off.

Frank Curzio 02:17

Oh, he’s cocky. And listen, I love cockiness.

Daniel Creech 02:19

But hey, when you win like that, you got to back it up.

Frank Curzio 02:21

Back it up and being cocky. That’s perfectly fine.

Daniel Creech 02:22

Look it up, people. Kid Rock. That’s a good tune.

Frank Curzio 02:24

Yeah, it is a good tune. So also, if you’re looking at the college playoffs, I mean, for me, I’m very, very disappointed that Notre Dame didn’t get in. And I’m not a Notre Dame fan. I just, for me, I look at Notre Dame and won 10 in a row. They won all those games by more than 10 points. So no matter who you have in front of you, if they’re shitty teams, they weren’t close games. They blew out the teams they needed to blow out. I think that they had a legitimate shot.

Frank Curzio 02:44

They got like a Heisman Trophy potential winner as a running back. They just looked really, really good down the stretch. And for them to just be left out and someone was going to be upset, you know, people think Miami has a shot to win the whole thing. I’ve seen Miami play a lot this year. They have no shot to win it. Okay. How Alabama got in there with three losses and saying, well, the last game means nothing.

Frank Curzio 03:04

And I understand the argument behind Notre Dame, where they don’t have a conference. They don’t have a conference championship. And I think that bit them in the ass this year. But the bottom line is you want the best teams to be in the college playoffs. That’s what it’s about. And if you put Miami on a neutral field against Notre Dame or Notre Dame against Alabama on a neutral field,

Frank Curzio 03:23

according to the odds, Notre Dame is favored in both of those games. They’re a better team than both of them. And they’re not in this final, which means this is broken. So now they’re going to extend it to freaking 16 teams or 20 teams or 30 teams. And it’s going to be all nonsense and stuff like that. But why do you have, I understand you got to get other conferences in there. But when you’re looking at, oh, it’s James Madison or whoever,

Frank Curzio 03:42

I mean, you’re getting these teams in there that are going to lose by 80. I just don’t get it. You know, it’s supposed to represent the best teams. And it doesn’t. And I’d fight for Notre Dame. I think Miami is deservingly. I don’t think Alabama. You lost three games. You lost three games. I know you have a tough schedule. But you know what? You lost, you know, a couple of shitty games at Florida State. You lost to Vanderbilt. I know you had the toughest schedule.

Frank Curzio 04:01

But you have three losses. And that game, it wasn’t that you were close. You got annihilated. I mean, to George. You got the shit kicked out of you. You looked terrible. You looked like you shouldn’t have been in that game. You looked horrible. I mean, you got smacked around. I mean, seriously, it was a joke watching that game from the very start. And for them to play that game, like, it doesn’t even matter.

Frank Curzio 04:21

Don’t fucking play the game if it doesn’t matter. Don’t even play. Don’t even show up. Because they didn’t even show up that game. And they got in.

Daniel Creech 04:26

Now you sound like George’s coach. Didn’t he hint at the title games going away?

Frank Curzio 04:30

They should go away. I mean, you know, you have Texas saying, well, you know, we played an extra game at the beginning of the year. And we lost. Who did they lose to? They played Texas. Was it Alabama? Was it Georgia? Who did they lose to? They lost the first game. Yeah, it was the very first game. It was a great game. So, oh, Ohio State. So Ohio State beat them. He’s like, we shouldn’t get punished for that. Yeah, but you lost two really shitty games after that. Three games.

Daniel Creech 04:49

Let’s have some fun with this, Frank. Nobody likes Notre Dame. But we’ll defend them here. Their schedule, they played two high school teams in the School of the Blind and Deaf. Okay? So get off that 10-week, 10-stretch game.

Frank Curzio 04:59

And every team in the Big 12, outside the SEC, I’ll give that to them. But every team.

Daniel Creech 05:03

I’m having fun.

Frank Curzio 05:04

Every team in the Big 10.

Daniel Creech 05:05

Email Frank.

Frank Curzio 05:06

They all play shitty games. They all play. Penn State played four games with high school teams. And same with Ohio State. They all play.

Daniel Creech 05:12

Buckeyes do too.

Frank Curzio 05:13

But the Buckeyes.

Daniel Creech 05:15

Soon, the playoffs for football will look like basketball. There’ll be like 40 teams you’ll have playing. It’ll be ridiculous.

Frank Curzio 05:21

I mean, because it’s all about money and stuff like that. Everyone’s going to get in and stuff. It’s going to be crazy. But I don’t know. We’ll see how that pans out. We’ll see. But anyway, college football playoffs is, isn’t the championship game like in, I feel like it’s a March now.

Daniel Creech 05:32

Yeah, it’s like my birthday. Yeah, it’s February.

Frank Curzio 05:34

It’s in February. Like, what happened to New Year’s? Like, remember all the bowls on New Year’s and stuff like that? What happened? This is just crazy. Crazy. I mean, the season ends today. You got two months before the national. Like, who cares? Like, who cares until that game happens? Anyway, we’re destroying college football. And we should because, you know, they really messed up. It bit them in the ass. The same thing happened with Florida State last year. You went undefeated. I know the quarterback or the year before when they were hurt.

Frank Curzio 05:54

And they winded up just pulling all their players. And that’s why Notre Dame’s not playing. Because all that, it makes no sense for their seniors, their best players to play that are going to go to the pros. Because they’re playing in the shitty bowl game. So, you know, people are like, well, what about everyone else? Well, you’re going to lose by 50. So why even bother playing? That’s what happened to Florida State. So it’s just a broken system. And it shouldn’t be broken. You could fix it. And you got a lot of smart people in the room. Fucking fix it. You know, the pros are great.

Daniel Creech 06:15

Do they though?

Frank Curzio 06:15

Fix it. Just fix it already. Come on. You got all these smart people, man. Why should this happen? Like, one of the best teams in the nation, regardless if you’re a Miami fan, regardless if you’re Alabama, I don’t think Alabama has any shot of winning it. I think that no shot at all. But, you know, Miami and Notre Dame are two great teams. And both of them should have made it. And they didn’t make it. And one of them got left out. And even if Miami was left out, I’d have the same conversation.

Frank Curzio 06:36

But, you know, it’s sad when you have a system that doesn’t reward the best players. Because at the end of the day, the playoff system is about having the best teams play each other. The best teams are not playing each other. You left one out. And that one team has a legit shot to win. They won 10 in a row. You can’t accept anything more. Anyway, I could get more fired up on that. Let’s talk about the fun stuff. The Fed meeting later. Likely to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Frank Curzio 06:56

No surprise. But what Powell will say afterwards is going to dominate the markets, which he’s been hawkish of late. And the markets are kind of expecting that hawkishness where they, you know, maybe here, because they weren’t too sure there was going to be a rate cut right this time around. That’s what Powell said last time. We’re not too sure. And now they’re highly expected to get that rate cut. But, you know, he’s been hawkish.

Frank Curzio 07:16

And let’s see. Because the data doesn’t suggest he should be hawkish where we have inflation relatively high. Okay. It’s been high past a few months. But not like rising like crazy. But the job market has, we’ve seen this tail off in the job market with tons of layoffs coming in. It’s that conversation of what he’s going to say afterwards is going to be interesting. Because if he’s just a little bit dovish or suggests that,

Frank Curzio 07:37

you know, the weekend labor market statistics that we’ve seen, that opens the door to more cuts in the first half of 2026, we could see stocks pop significantly. Or if he comes out and is hawkish, you’re going to have Trump come out and say, okay, we need to fire this guy before May. You know, either way, this is all short-term stuff because we are going to see lower rates in 2026. But, you know, what are your thoughts on this? Any surprises?

Daniel Creech 07:56

I am excited that the

Daniel Creech 07:59

decision is upon us, Frank, because I’m so tired of hearing about a hawkish cut. Have you heard that term around there?

Frank Curzio 08:06

Hawkish.

Daniel Creech 08:07

Oh my gosh. A hawkish cut. Yes. Listen, the big surprise would be if they don’t cut. Obviously, that’s baked in. But yeah, I just, like I said, I want to see what Fed Powell says about the balance sheet, about, you know, when, not if, doing more quantitative easing since the quantitative tightening stopped. We mentioned that last week.

Daniel Creech 08:24

Listen, there’s no good feelings between Trump and Powell. It wouldn’t shock me if he kind of walks that data line, Frank, and just says, ah, we’ll hold off and all that kind of stuff. But the cat’s out of the bag. The market’s going to price that in. I would be, if you, I’m going to be cynical today, Frank, just as a heads up. If you think about legacy from Powell’s perspective,

Daniel Creech 08:45

in my opinion, then I don’t know why you wouldn’t hint at balance sheet expansion. He already hinted at that last press conference when he said, well, at some point, we’re going to have to expand the balance sheet to be this. Another curse word that I can’t stand is these ample reserved type language. But if he hints at more dovish, like you said, and pops the market, that does make his legacy look good.

Daniel Creech 09:04

Not that he wants a, well, I think he does that. But that’ll also get Trump. If you want a quiet President Trump, then you’re not just doing it for him. Like I said, I point to true inflation all the time. It’s 2.54%. I only point that out. Let’s say both are inaccurate. The Fed is saying inflation is 3. This is 2.45. And they say it’s more up to date and all that.

Daniel Creech 09:25

My point is there’s a massive gap there. That should aggravate everybody, including listeners, that Scott Bessett, I think, is hinting at and saying they need big changes at the Fed. One, Frank, is it a big thing to say that the technology at the U.S. government across all boards is outdated and all that? Everybody says that in every administration.

Frank Curzio 09:43

It’s so shitty.

Daniel Creech 09:43

So do something about it. And use true inflation or something like that. Go on.

Frank Curzio 09:47

Yeah, you can use blockchain now. You can use so many things that really, I mean, look at the prediction markets,right? It’s real time. There’s so much. Because, I mean, look at the GDP. I mean, it gets revised three times. You know, the data gets revised three times when you have this quarterly data that comes out. And there’s no reason for that. I mean, there really is no reason. Especially when you’re taking surveys and things like that. I mean,

Frank Curzio 10:05

with AI and everything, all the technology we have, blockchain technology, that can’t be, you know, you can’t bullshit and real accurate records without third-party interference. You know, they could fix it if they want. It doesn’t matter if they want to fix it. You know, and there’s reasons why they wouldn’t fix it. I agree with them. Just not to fix it. Because, you know, this is the system. A lot of policies get dictated because of this, of the amount of money.

Frank Curzio 10:24

So when you talk about, you know, hundreds of billions of dollars.

Daniel Creech 10:26

You’re talking million bowl games, Frank.

Frank Curzio 10:27

Yeah, I mean, yeah, I know,right? I mean, just, you know, so I get it, you know. And I don’t see a lot of change. Because when you have the people making the laws and benefiting the most, they’re not going to change. And they’re not going to change the laws. I mean, that’s our system. So our system is completely broken. And we want to say it’s democracy. But, you know, if you want to change, if you want to have term limits, the people who actually are in office the longest have to vote on that.

Frank Curzio 10:49

So how do you think they’re going to vote,right? You know, so you’re not going to see these changes. You’re going to see, you know, 100-year-old people that can’t talk that fall and stumble that are in Congress. And it’s sad. And they’re like, you know, what’s the, what do you think of the job data? They’re like, GDP in 2016 went up. Like, they can’t even talk,right? They can’t even talk. They can’t even speak. You know, these guys,

Frank Curzio 11:07

it’s like, you know, they count the strokes that they had by the time they’re freaking 85. I mean, you had three. That’s great. Okay. You got another six years to go. It’s like, holy shit. It’s so broken, this system. It’s terrible. But, you know, it’s just the way it is. But, you know, look, look, we’re looking at the data. I don’t know what Powell is going to say. Regardless of what he says,

Frank Curzio 11:26

we’re going to see, he’s going to be gone in May. We’re going to see rates go significantly lower from here. And when they do, you know, a lot could happen. And Jeffries came out with a good report today. I like reports that kind of like are different from what you see out there. And look, we’re going to see strong growth next year and all this stuff and deregulation. And technology is probably going to rebound and all this stuff. They were talking about, instead of looking at the Fed cutting rates,

Frank Curzio 11:47

you have to look at the 10-year, 2-year spread. And he says it’s going to continue to widen in 2026, which is weird,right? Because usually when you lower rates, it’s not going to widen. It’s going to tighten. And they expect the 10-year to rise even with rate cuts against a 2-year, which has been the trend thus far. You know, the Fed’s been lowering rates. So they say, well, likely to see solid growth in 2026 due to fiscal monetary stimulus,

Frank Curzio 12:08

which is not going to stop. So while the year’s spread right now, if you look between the 10-year and 2-year, I don’t want to be this complicated, is about 0.6. They’re projecting the spread to double to 1.25. Now, what does that mean? In that type of environment, they went back in history, I think the 1980 with the S&P. And they said there’s three sectors that kill it over the next 6 to 12 months if that forecast comes to fruition.

Frank Curzio 12:29

So you’re looking at the spread in yields is, you know, 1% to 1.25%. Again, it’s 0.6%. So they’re saying if it widens more, there’s three sectors that do great. And I guarantee you, if you want to name those sectors, people would get them wrong,right? So it’s healthcare, energy, and staples. And they also throw financials in the staples part.

Frank Curzio 12:48

But they provided a portfolio of over 30 stocks. And I just, you know, we have access to a lot of this stuff. So I like to share it. But they were talking about big names like Bristol Myers, Pfizer, Humana on.

Daniel Creech 12:58

Let’s go Pfizer.

Frank Curzio 12:58

On healthcare. Goldman, Morgan Stanley Prudential on the financials and staples. And Marathon Petroleum and Civitas Resources on the energy front of stocks that would do good in 2026. So, you know, you guys could figure out the symbols of all those. I just like reading notes with different takes. But what I do know is that rates are going to come down. And when they do come down and you throw in deregulation,

Frank Curzio 13:20

you throw in Trump where you have an election year coming. So I don’t know how it’ll go in the first quarter. But Trump’s barometer of success for the economy is the stock market. And you know he’s going to do everything he can to prop that up,right? Which, you know, you have to factor in much more stimulus. So for me, I just think that there’s lots of ways that you could play this. They’re playing through staples.

Frank Curzio 13:39

And I just think even home stocks, I mean, we got two reports,right? Home Depot, Toll Brothers didn’t really, you know, didn’t really report good numbers, both weak numbers. Home Depot reported their guidance. And it was a little bit weak. And Toll Brothers reported earnings that that missed. And both of them again hit a little bit, you know, got hit a little bit.

Frank Curzio 13:56

But I really like housing stocks because a lot of these things have come off tremendously. And, you know, with lower rates coming, I think that that could be a boom, especially for those two stocks.

Daniel Creech 14:06

Yeah. I mean, we talk about housing quite a bit. Markets are actually, well, listen, the housing is such a big deal for GDP in general. When you look at different GDP on average, Frank, now I’m going to lump in housing services as well as new construction and stuff. But you’re talking bias grok and AI,

Daniel Creech 14:25

Frank, Future Terminator says between 15 and 18% of GDP. That’s a big number. So why do we pay attention to this? Because it could move the entire, or it has an impact on the entire economy. I didn’t dig into the details on Home Depot and Toll Brother. I saw the bullet points and stuff. Did they signal a weak consumer or?

Frank Curzio 14:46

Just an overall weaker than what?

Daniel Creech 14:48

Or is it the same old, same old? Like Walmart’s the same old, same old?

Frank Curzio 14:50

It’s the same old, same old. Yeah, basically. So Home Depot just, it was funny because we looked at the headlines for Home Depot. They came out with their 2026 guidance. And it was slightly lighter than expected. That’s the headline. And the stock is, you know, it’s kind of flat when they came out with it. And when you look under the hood, Home Depot, their sales for 2025 were down 5% year over year. Next year, they’re expecting growth of 5%. That’s a very, very big move.

Daniel Creech 15:12

Yeah, absolutely.

Frank Curzio 15:13

That’s a massive reversal,right? And the guidance for 2026, the headline says guidance was light, which is funny. If you look under the hood, you know what it’s light? They projected now 164.3 billion for the full year in revenue for 2026. And that was lower than the 164.6 billion. So 164.3 from 164.6.

Frank Curzio 15:33

And yet the headline reads, guidance is light,right? So, you know, this stock was down a little bit on that news. And it’s kind of like flat. I think people get it. But Home Depot’s stock was 420 in September. It’s now 350. It’s down 17% from its highs, down 9% year to date. That compares to the S&P 500, which is up 16% for the year.

Frank Curzio 15:52

Toll Brothers report as well. They’re down 3%. They missed on earnings. I mean, look, it was 458 that was reported compared to 488, $4.88. So it was a 30-cent miss. But sales were higher than expected, telling me that margins are contracting a little bit. Maybe Toll Brothers providing extra incentives to sell their homes. The stock’s up 5% for the year.

Frank Curzio 16:11

Again, S&P’s up 16% underperforming. But this was 165 in November 2024. It’s 132right now. I think both names are buys. If you have a 12-month or longer time horizon, you know, just with the housing market in general, guys, listen, David Tepper also agrees. I mean, he added to his Whirlpool position, got a big stake in Whirlpool.

Frank Curzio 16:32

New position owns Corning, which is the pure play in housing. And roofs, insulation, doors, residential construction. You have lower rates coming. Lots of people on the sidelines looking to buy. Once rates come down, you do have supply that has gone up, but still a favorable market. You also have in Florida, DeSantis trying to get rid of property taxes in Florida.

Frank Curzio 16:51

Holy cow. I mean, that would be awesome. And an interesting stat, he said, I think it’s 35%. It’s only going to be for residents of Florida. And 35% of people in Florida, this is like their second house. And they don’t reside here, but they have homes here,right? I don’t know what the percentage is for every state, but I was just surprised to see that that much. But if that happens and he’s trying to push that,

Frank Curzio 17:11

holy cow, I mean, Florida’s going to be a massive boom. But I understand affordability is off the charts. It’s the worst it’s ever been. It’s not easy for some middle-income families to afford a home right now. But there’s tons of pent-up demand for people who want to buy houses if rates come lower. And man, one of the biggest stats, Dan, I don’t know if you saw this, the amount of equity, because home prices have held pretty steady because,

Frank Curzio 17:32

you know, the supply-demand,right? It’s not, there’s more supply coming to the market, but home prices have held up pretty well. Yes, you can find areas where you say, well, it’s down 10, 15%. And those that are down 10, 15% are up 100% in the past three, four years. Okay. So it’s a mild pullback when you’re looking off the highs. But Goldman has it in their note. There’s $34 trillion of home equity that people have in their homes.

Frank Curzio 17:53

Now, of course, they’re not going to take all the equity out, but even 10% of that, 20% of that. And as rates move lower, it doesn’t mean necessarily, oh, we’re going to buy a house or whatever. But many families, they’re going to begin to tap this ATM, especially those that are struggling, because that’s where most of their wealth is, which will result in what? More do-it-yourself projects, more additions, new appliances.

Frank Curzio 18:13

I mean, this is Whirlpool. This is Corning. This is Home Depot and Lowe’s,right? With do-it-yourself projects. This is all coming next year. And even Toll Brothers, Dan, really quick, listen to what the CEO said today. I love this. Given soft demand across many markets, we remain focused on running our business in a disciplined manner.

Frank Curzio 18:29

We continue to balance price and pace and are actively managing our spec starts and inventory on a community-by-community basis to match demand conditions. We control sufficient land to support continued community account growth over the next several years, including 8 to 10% growth in fiscal 2026. We remain highly disciplined and selective in new land acquisitions as we continue to focus on capital efficiency.

Frank Curzio 18:51

Now, what does that mean? I covered the homebuilders during the credit crisis. And these guys basically were all bankrupt. And then they came out with a new law that a few people didn’t know. I remember bringing it up to Kramer. He’s like, holy shit, this is the greatest thing ever, where they were able to take those losses. It wasn’t just from one year. I believe it was for five years they extended the losses.

Frank Curzio 19:11

So they could take the losses from those years and actually use them against those gains. And remember, the housing market came back very, very quickly, like very quickly in 2010, 11, 12. And they were able to take all the losses, all those write-downs, and basically offset those prices. And these companies almost went under. And now they’re run very, very good, especially in environments like this.

Frank Curzio 19:31

So the point is not to read this part is that Toll Brothers is prepared. It’s a company that’s well prepared for next year when rates come down, housing begins to take off. They know what they’re doing. A lot of the homebuilders in the space know exactly what they’re doing because they’ve been in so many boom and bust markets. I think it’s just, I think you need to add some exposure to housing in the portfolio with lower rates coming.

Frank Curzio 19:51

And some of these stocks have gotten hit pretty hard, like Home Depot. Home Depot is significantly underperformed. Toll Brothers is a little bit less. But I don’t know if I’m so much into the homebuilders, but Home Depot, Lowe’s, really good names here that are down tremendously off their highs.

Daniel Creech 20:05

Yep. And a smaller-cap stock, we haven’t, we’ve stopped short of recommending it, but Dreamfinder Homes got a big presence down here in Jacksonville as well. But their stock has gotten hit with other ones, but it’s a small-cap stock. So it’s about a billion seven market cap. That’s one to look at if you think housing is going to recover along with lower interest rates.

Frank Curzio 20:23

Yeah. And look at the names. The big difference between these names, you know, who has a large exposure in some of the areas like Texas, Florida, where people are moving to, where lower rates are going to impact that. You still see, you know, people moving out of major cities to these areas. You know, you want to look at the fundamentals. A lot of these stocks trade below 10 times earnings. Don’t think that’s cheap. It’s cheap for the S&P, but that’s normal where they trade.

Frank Curzio 20:43

So you might see some that are trading at seven or eight PEs that are growing faster than Toll Brothers trading at nine, 10 PE. So, you know, do a little research on them. And you probably find a really good name that’s going to outperform. I think they all outperform going into next year. But, you know, again, to really pick the ones that do the best, that’s where you have to look at and compare them side by side. And, you know, we’re in that process right now.

Frank Curzio 21:03

So, you know, moving on, we have President Trump said he’s now going to allow Nvidia to sell their H200 chips to China as long as the US gets 25% of the sales. Daniel, what are your thoughts on this?

Daniel Creech 21:14

Well, it’s a slippery slope here. We go again with Trump doing his little commie card, Frank, where we’re taking stakes into different companies and all that. And according to the Wall Street Journal, when they first floated this idea, and the way I understand it, this was a Biden administration restriction. So there’s a reversal there. The deal was 15% when they were talking about this. So I guess right before you sign the bottom line,

Daniel Creech 21:35

Frank, they say, well, we’re going to do this at 10% higher. 25% is the new cut there. Depending on the market share, we’ll get into that in a moment. You know, that gives Trump a victory lap to say, hey, there’s another billion to two billion, however you want to look at that in income to offset things. You know, what I want to ask you, Frank, is I understand the risk of selling,

Daniel Creech 21:56

you know, we’re frenemies, okay? Everybody’s in competition. I like Secretary of Treasury Bessant and how he says it. Listen, we want to work with China, but they’re always going to be a competitor. You know, let’s be honest about that. What I want to ask you about is if you buy into this whole global AI race, which we obviously do, the AI czar,

Daniel Creech 22:16

David Sacks, has been very vocal. And in my opinion, I would fall towards his side in saying, listen, if you want to be the global leader, you want everybody to be using and building off your technology, not China’s. And how do you say it, Frank? Is that Howie or Howie?

Frank Curzio 22:32

I think Howey.

Daniel Creech 22:33

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 22:33

You were close.

Daniel Creech 22:34

That’s not it. Anyway, I tend to go with that direction. That’s what I want your opinion on. I mean, go ahead on the 25% stuff. You know, that’s a slippery slope. I don’t like that at all.

Frank Curzio 22:45

I think it’s kind of like selling cocaine in the US and selling marijuana, you know, which they figured out. They’re like, look, instead, like, you know, you might as well legalize it because everyone’s going to get it. China’s going to get access to these chips no matter what,right? They have access to all of our technology, whether they steal it or not. You might as well have the authority to go in there and monitor it. And people might say, well, the H200 chips are not available.

Frank Curzio 23:05

There’s such a black market out there. You’re not going to be able to buy them.

Daniel Creech 23:07

In the same Wall Street Journal article I was just talking about, they also say, oh, well, by the way, this guy was just arrested on smuggling those chips.

Frank Curzio 23:13

Yes. So now you get to monitor it. And Trump could do his she, mean, she get along great. He’s my best friend. And look what we did for the US and take credit for all this stuff and everything. But listen, we’re going to talk about stocks here, which is important because Nvidia’s all over this in the headlines,right? Nvidia’s going to sell H200 chips. Look, if you look again under the hood,

Frank Curzio 23:32

what we do here, one, is this is a massive market. The China market for GPUs is $50 billion. Okay? Now you’re selling the best chips into this market. Conservatively, you’re going to get 20% of the market. And I know China’s saying, well, we’re not going to use them. They’re going to use them. Okay?

Frank Curzio 23:48

But when you look under the hood, AMD and Intel are also going to be allowed to sell their best chips to China. Now, Intel doesn’t have really any best chips, we know. But AMD does. Okay? Their chips are getting better. And with AMD, I mean, if you put this perspective, Nvidia generates $200 billion in sales,right? It’s going to generate this year, $200 billion in sales.

Frank Curzio 24:07

So say if they capture 20% of the market and the US captures 20% and 10% goes to Nvidia, 10% goes to AMD, just say. Okay? So you’re looking at $5 billion,right? Or even $10 billion at 20%. So $10 billion you’re looking at. And say Nvidia gets $5 billion, AMD gets $5 billion. Nvidia generates $200 billion in sales.

Frank Curzio 24:26

An extra $5 billion in sales amounts to 2.5% of total sales. And I don’t know what the margin is going to be with the 25% that the US is getting.

Daniel Creech 24:32

Less than their 70% gross market cap.

Frank Curzio 24:34

But AMD, on the other hand, if they capture that other 10% of the market of $5 billion, I mean, it’s going to amount to over 15% of their sales. We’re talking about Nvidia, which has a market cap of $4.5 trillion. AMD has a market cap of $360 billion. It’s a game changer for AMD. And nobody’s talking about this. Now, AMD’s a screaming buy off of this.

Frank Curzio 24:52

I know the headline when you read it, Nvidia H200 chips, but also AMD’s going to be able to sell their best chips, which are getting better and better and better. And if they capture some of this market, that’s going to move the needle for a company like that. Nvidia, yes, they need it because it seems like no matter what Nvidia reports, how great the sales are, how fast they’re growing, the stock doesn’t want to move higher than the current level. The 180s, 190s, you know, around there.

Frank Curzio 25:13

Again, $4.5 trillion market cap, hard to move that. AMD, on the other hand, they’re looking to just take up more percent of the total addressable market, kind of like what Microsoft was doing early on with Amazon and cloud. And now look, now, you know, Amazon still owns the biggest market share, but Microsoft has took a lot of that. And now Google, and then you have Oracle,

Frank Curzio 25:32

and then you have Alibaba taking market share in the cloud. And it’s such a massive, massive industry. AMD, with that small market cap, I mean, this moves the needle for them. I love AMD here. They’re a much bigger winner on this China news. Nobody’s talking about it. I feel like everyone’s talking about Nvidia. Nvidia definitely needs this. But man, this really moves the needle for AMD.

Daniel Creech 25:51

Yeah. And the CFO, Chief Financial Officer of Nvidia, said that they could, if geopolitical tensions ease, which this looks like that, they could ship two to five billion per quarter as orders pick up. Obviously, like you said, they’re going to be one winner. But yeah, that pie is so big. And we’ll see what happens. But there’s going to be a lot of back and forth on that. Like I said,

Daniel Creech 26:11

the 25% thing is what sticks with me on the ownership and all that kind of stuff. But hey, it’s where we live right now.

Frank Curzio 26:16

Yeah. We’ll see. We’ll see what happens. But that includes like monitoring and going over everything and making sure you have, you know, national security and stuff and open up the markets. And we know how China is,right? It’s a communist country. Like they don’t want to, you know, tell you anything and show anything. And they want to steal everything. It’s just the way it is. I’m not talking about the culture there. I love China. I’ve been to China. I’m just talking about the government there,right? It’s a different government.

Frank Curzio 26:36

It’s crazy. You got to realize, you know, they can do everything they can to, you know, their goal is to be the biggest in the world and take over the world,right? So we got to be very careful with that. But you want good relations with the best manufacturer on the planet when you have the greatest economy on the planet. And when we have these two countries getting along, it’s great for the global economy. When they’re not, you see what happens to the markets.

Frank Curzio 26:57

And that happened with the tariff announcements early on. And Trump decided to do tariffs with every country at the same time and negotiate, which was crazy. And, you know, Bessant said, hey, you know what? The market and the bond market’s telling you that we’re going to absolutely crash unless you do something. And he’s like, allright, well, you know, we have a deal and we cut back the tariffs, which is smart because, you know, we really felt it with the economy. But,

Frank Curzio 27:16

you know, when the US is getting along with China, it’s a good thing. And this is a good thing, okay? This isn’t a bad thing. And they’re going to get those chips anyway. We might as well make money off of it. I mean, I’m not being cynical. I’m being real. So, yeah, moving on, let’s talk about the Netflix deal.

Daniel Creech 27:31

Yeah. What a difference a week makes, Frank.

Frank Curzio 27:34

Well, you know, we were saying, well, Netflix is a bug. I didn’t think that Netflix–I knew Netflix had the highest offer. I just didn’t think that they would come out publicly and be like, okay, 100%. This is–and Warner Brothers kind of saying we’re going to accept this deal. And Netflix came down. I don’t think Netflix is going to get this deal done, okay? And it’s different from what Ellison said because he had Ellison, you know, baby Ellison was on TV. You know, his dad is–

Daniel Creech 27:56

They’re going hostile, Frank. I love that.

Frank Curzio 27:58

Oh, they’re going hostile.

Daniel Creech 27:58

Going hostile.

Frank Curzio 27:59

And it’s cool. But, you know, just to bring everyone together here, you have Netflix launch a $72 billion bid for Warner Brothers. That was $27.75. And you had Warner Brothers kind of accept it, even though Paramount had a good deal in place, like a better deal than $72 billion. But then Paramount just came out and said, you know what? We’re increasing that to $30 a share all cash deal. And David Faber was interviewing,

Frank Curzio 28:20

you know, young Ellison. And he was like, do you have the money secure? And he was like, really?

Daniel Creech 28:27

Yeah. That was funny.

Frank Curzio 28:28

Come on, Dave. Really? Are you kidding me? So, you know, you’re looking at his dad, who’s, yeah, worth $300 billion, I think. $300 billion. He thinks he owns 40% of Oracle,right? And look, Oracle was like sky high,right? So I think it was over $400 billion. It’s pulled back. But so the Ellison family owns Paramount. You know, they were pissed off. They counted with a $30 share all cash deal,

Frank Curzio 28:47

which amounts to $83 billion compared to the $72 billion deal. And listen, $10 billion is a lot of money, okay? That’s a lot of money for the significant, significant amount of money. And it would also cover the $2.5 billion breakup fee that has to go to Netflix. And when Ellison was on TV yesterday, I liked the interview. I’ve never heard him before. And I found myself listening to the whole thing.

Frank Curzio 29:06

It was long. It was good. If you get a chance to listen to it, he’s very sharp. Could be expected when you’re down to a rock star and worth over $300 billion.

Daniel Creech 29:12

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 29:14

But Paramount’s bid is not just superior to Netflix in terms of price. They want to buy the whole company, Daniel, outright. All the divisions, all the properties. While Netflix is just like, hey, we’re buying HBO streaming assets. I don’t know what happens to the rest of the assets, but that’s what they want. Ellison went on to say in that interview that, hey, this is going to be anti-competitive.

Frank Curzio 29:33

It’s going to be almost a monopoly. Netflix is going to have so much control over Hollywood. And every number that you look at suggests this. Okay, here’s where I have to push back on him. First, nobody treats Hollywood better than Netflix. It’s why every major actor loves working with them. You look at Adam Sandler, Ryan Reynolds, The Rock, Chris Hemsworth, Chris Rock, Kevin Hart, all the comedians. They love working with Netflix because they always provide great deals.

Frank Curzio 29:56

They give them, you know, control, some of the control, which a lot of studios don’t. So, you know, I don’t agree with that. And when I do look at the numbers, they’re going to have 430 million paid subscribers when you add Warner Brothers and Netflix. Netflix is 310 million. Warner Brothers is 122 million, which compares to just 79 million for Paramount.

Frank Curzio 30:16

So 430 compared to 79,right? Okay. But you have to look at the whole picture. Prime has over 200 million subscribers, okay? Disney has over 175 million subscribers with Hulu. So you have clear competition. YouTube has over 2 billion users, over 10 million subscribers to YouTube TV, which is also considered a form of streaming and entertainment.

Frank Curzio 30:37

Now, you can say this is a monopoly or, you know, all you want, but it’s not when you have, when you’re looking at Apple being in this marketplace, if you look at Amazon Studios,right, through Prime and Google, these three major companies in the marketplace,

Frank Curzio 30:52

you cannot tell me that this is going to be anti-competitive or they’re going to have control over where they’re going to be able to raise prices considerably to the point where people are like, I have to pay it. No, they’ll just go and look at other forms of entertainment, which there’s tons. There’s literally over a thousand streaming platforms. More importantly, Ellison said every number points in Netflix and Warner Brothers being a near monopoly, which limits competition.

Frank Curzio 31:13

The biggest number you have to look at is content spend. I don’t know if he looked at it. So Netflix combined with Warner Brothers spent a combined $31 billion on new content in 2024. Those are the latest numbers available. The new numbers will probably come out in a couple of months. Comcast alone spent more than that, $37 billion on new content. YouTube spent $32 billion on content.

Frank Curzio 31:32

Remember that combined company, Netflix and Warner Brothers spent $31 billion on content. So they’re not spending like $100 billion on content where they’re wrecking everyone and no one can compete with them. So your monopoly, anti-competitive argument doesn’t hold water at all to me. With that said, politics are going to play a big role in this.

Frank Curzio 31:50

And I don’t think Netflix is going to be able to take this deal because what we said last week, Netflix run by Reed Hastings hates Trump. And Trump is not a fan of Netflix. He came out and said that publicly,right? He’s in the news commenting on this deal now. The Ellison family, on the other hand, Daniel owns Paramount, donated a ton, a shitload of money to the Republican Party.

Frank Curzio 32:11

That’s real currency. This is what companies and billionaires pay for when they donate to campaigns. When stuff like this happens, remember, hey, this is why I donated so much money to you. This is what you pay for, whether you agree with it or not. It’s almost like bribes, but they call it lobbying and just donations and campaign donations. So Trump’s weighing in on this deal,

Frank Curzio 32:31

says if it goes through, he wants ownership and programming changes. The CNN of Paramount wins, which, you know, they’re going to do,right? Because they’re Trump fans. But I just can’t see Trump’s Justice Department allowing a Netflix Time Warner deal. I just don’t see it. And we’ve been talking about this all the time, Daniel. I mean, this has been the theme for at least the past 18 months for us,

Frank Curzio 32:51

especially once he got elected, is be on the right side of Trump or you’re going to be in trouble. And Netflix, look, all technology companies were against Trump. You could hate Trump. Once he gets elected, that’s why Larry Fink changed, Mark Zuckerberg changed. Oh, we support Trump. You have to be on the right side of politics. I know it’s a game. I know it’s bullshit. And I hate people like that. But that’s the game.

Frank Curzio 33:10

Netflix never did that. Netflix didn’t say, hey, we support. They doubled down. We hate Trump. The country is going to end because of him or whatever. I think that’s going to influence this deal a lot. I really do. I don’t see Netflix getting this deal done. But what’s going to happen is you’re going to see Netflix stock just stay in like limbo until they actually drop their bid or this deal gets approved. If it does get approved,

Frank Curzio 33:29

it’s not going to be for over a year from now. You know, with Netflix just sitting there, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens.

Daniel Creech 33:34

Two things for me you need to clear up, dumb down to my level. One is on YouTube. And the second one is back to the interview between David and David, not baby Ellison, Frank.

Frank Curzio 33:41

Baby Ellison.

Daniel Creech 33:42

Baby Ellison. So on YouTube, and what will be, I’m going to use interesting. It’s really not theright word for me here. But what will be interesting to hear them argue back and forth, them over monopolies and things like that is how do you count the content you’re trying to label as a monopoly and who they have over there.

Daniel Creech 34:01

So YouTube, for instance, to my knowledge, and I’m not the best series show watcher, nobody is putting, pick your favorite series. What’s the best series you’re involved in right now, Frank? Landman. I hear about that all the time.

Frank Curzio 34:13

Great.

Daniel Creech 34:13

Okay. Landman is by Paramount. Okay. But is YouTube producing series like that, that put on YouTube?

Frank Curzio 34:22

On YouTube TV? No, they’re just broadcasting. I don’t think they have their original content, but the YouTube TV.

Daniel Creech 34:28

Okay. Because I hear a lot of like YouTube has this amount of subscribers, but like that’s a different subscriber base.

Frank Curzio 34:35

Not necessarily. Listen, I mean, it’s a form of entertainment that you’re watching. So if you’re looking at it, I wouldn’t count that as a different subscriber. You have people that are going to watch series. You have people that are going to watch news.

Daniel Creech 34:47

But YouTube is not competing in that environment of series.

Frank Curzio 34:50

But YouTube, but they’re competing for time. Like eyeballs.

Daniel Creech 34:52

Oh, I get that.

Frank Curzio 34:53

So your eyeballs on YouTube is massive because that’s what people are entertained by, whether it’s short videos or TikTok or whatever. Those are forms of entertainment. And you could say, well, they’re not, they actually are competing. Like you have, you know, just even with, you know, with Reels, you know, through Facebook, where that’s taking time out from kids where are they watching TV shows?

Frank Curzio 35:12

No. I mean, both my daughters love YouTube. They watch YouTube all the time.

Daniel Creech 35:15

Oh, I know that. I’m just saying from a competitive, like I think this is a lawyer’s dream because you get to go argue what’s actually a competitive and monopoly and all that kind of stuff. The second thing is getting back to the interview between David Faber and David Ellison. And Frank, I told you I was going to be cynical. I love this idea. And I don’t think you do because you’re a better person than I am at heart. David Faber asked him about,

Daniel Creech 35:36

hey, what do you think about Netflix is essentially just doing this deal to try to tie up the competition for a couple of years? Because the rumors I’ve heard on CNBC and different reading is this deal to go through the Justice Department could take a long time, 12 to 24 months, okay? Now there’s a breakup fee. I understand that.

Daniel Creech 35:54

However, if you heard the Netflix guy the other day talking about how, hey, we have a deal. We think this is going to get through. And he sounded like he was duct taped in a closet. It was the last thing you would think of confidence. Mr. Ellison, baby Ellison, as Frank likes to say, he did sound good in that interview. Now it was a one-on-one interview.

Daniel Creech 36:14

And when Netflix made their comments, it was at some conference or something. So the media was playing that over the phone. So you just had a still picture. So maybe it was some of the audio. But it didn’t sound, you know, if I’m going to go out on a limb here and have fun with this. Now I want your opinion on this, Frank, because Daniel Creech is a cynical guy, okay?

Daniel Creech 36:32

I could totally see a company doing something like this just to tie it up for a couple of years and hope they, because Netflix is the clear leader. They’re the king of streaming.

Frank Curzio 36:40

Netflix is doing this deal to tie it up.

Daniel Creech 36:42

If they, yeah, well, I don’t know that they are, but I like that angle. And I appreciated David Faber’s question about that because I know there’s a big breakup fee. But let’s be honest, just like you said last week when we were talking about independent retail investors really don’t have a vote in the shares they hold, a few billion dollars to Netflix management team is not the end of the world, okay?

Daniel Creech 37:01

Especially if you can stretch it out for that long of a time, continue your reign as king and all that kind of stuff. Let’s say you on the cynical side, Frank, you think there’s anything there behind David Faber’s question?

Frank Curzio 37:11

No, I don’t think they’re doing this just to tie it up and whatever. I mean, you know, why? Because if you look at the stock price, they probably lost about $250 billion in market cap, which is much more than anything. And they know tying this deal up creates uncertainty. It always does. You know, when you have a quick acquisition, it’s great. That’s why Oracle is the king of acquisitions,right? They’ve been rolling up strategy forever,

Frank Curzio 37:30

you know, hundreds of companies they bought and they can integrate it like this. This is such a big deal that, you know, there’s so many just moving parts of things that you might have to sell, things you might have to get rid of, things you might have to change. It’s almost like an AT&T deal when you’re trying to buy like Sprint and stuff like that and why they didn’t allow it. And when they tried to buy T-Mobile, I think it was, and T-Mobile said, if we don’t do this deal, we’re going out of business.

Frank Curzio 37:50

And now they have a larger market cap than both Verizon and AT&T. I love that. They’ll say anything to get the deal done, which is fine. That’s your job. It’s like a coach in the, you know, college playoffs that’s going to say anything to make sure that team gets in, even though if they don’t deserve it. You know, so when I look at this deal, no, I’m not, I don’t think they would do that to tie this up. I mean, after two,

Frank Curzio 38:09

after a year, then, you know, what, they’re going to allow this deal to go through then? I mean, what’s another year if it does go through? But, you know, Netflix in terms of their stock, in terms of their capital, in terms of, you know, how they raise money, you know, anything that they do in the debt markets or whatever, it’s, you know, it’s better if your stock price is a lot higher.

Frank Curzio 38:25

And you got to be smart with this where everyone knows on the political front that this deal is going to run into problems. You have to read these things better, drop the knee to Trump and be like, listen, this is what we’re going to do. We’re going to reorganize CNN and all this shit or whatever and tell Trump everything he wants to hear, whether you do it or not, and get the deal done. If he doesn’t, I can’t see this deal going through because it’s just,

Frank Curzio 38:45

you know, you could argue, you could make an argument a little bit about the numbers. I don’t think there’s an argument there. I mean, maybe there is a little bit of an argument there, but still, it’s not like, you know, all of a sudden they’re going to control Hollywood and no one’s going to get any deals done. No movies are going to be made and everyone’s going to just, you know, never cancel Netflix and they’re going to be able to raise prices times 6x and people have to subscribe.

Frank Curzio 39:05

It’s not that deal. People are going to find other ways of entertainment. It’s not like back in the day where you had three cable channels and that was it, three news channels, national news channels, and that was it. You know, that was even before Fox,right? It was just ABC, CBS, and NBC. So it’s a lot different there.

Frank Curzio 39:20

I just don’t see, I’m very surprised that Netflix went ahead and did this deal considering that all the stuff that they’re going to have to go through over the next six months to a year. And the other deal would have got, you know, just passed, it would have been done like in two seconds. And it also tells you about Warner Brothers.

Frank Curzio 39:36

Why would they do this deal when you have a superior offer for someone who wants to buy your entire company at $10 billion premium, buying the whole company, all cash deal?

Daniel Creech 39:45

That’s a good point. What do you tell your shareholders?

Frank Curzio 39:48

What do you tell your shareholders? So for me, once Netflix drops out of this deal, which I think they will, because I don’t know if they’ll come in higher. If they do, that stock, I don’t know, man. I just, I don’t like the stock here if they come in higher because you got a year of this bullshit. I think if they merge, it’s great for Netflix long term. But, you know, that pushes them to a trillion and a half, two trillion valuation probably over the next three, four years. Right now,

Frank Curzio 40:06

you’re sitting at a $500 billion valuation, a little bit lower because your stock’s got annihilated off of this, down 30%. I just think once they pull out, this stock’s going to re-rate and go much, much higher. And that might happen now that you have Ellison sweetening that deal because there’s no reason why shareholders should be like, we want Netflix. You know, there’s got to be a reason why they’re choosing Netflix,

Frank Curzio 40:26

especially when you got a superior deal that makes it much more clean. It’s all cash. You have everything that you possibly want, 10 billion or more. How do you tell your shareholders Netflix is better?

Daniel Creech 40:35

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 40:35

How do you tell them that? And how does the management team explain that? And you own that, you have that fiduciary responsibility to shareholders that like you have to care or not. It depends on how much ownership they have and they’re going to do it, which in their best interest first before the shareholders. But it’s interesting to see. I think when Netflix comes out of this deal, Daniel, I think that you’ll see that stock re-rate and go much, much higher.

Frank Curzio 40:53

And I think that’s going to happen over the next month because there’s a much better deal on the table. You know, are you really going to go into this bidding war when you might not even get this?

Daniel Creech 41:00

Well, listen, also hinting in that interview that they would raise their bid.

Frank Curzio 41:05

Even further.

Daniel Creech 41:05

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 41:06

Well, you got to say that in case Netflix comes over the top,right? So it’s, but it’s getting to the point where.

Daniel Creech 41:11

Hey, maybe Warner Brothers is just doing a great deal for their investors and their fiduciary responsibility.

Frank Curzio 41:15

Which is good.

Daniel Creech 41:16

We got 33 out of them and they were only going to 30.

Frank Curzio 41:18

Yeah, we see 24 at the beginning, 27, now it’s 30. Now maybe it goes to 32, 33, who knows? And it’s getting to the point where these assets aren’t worth that price. I mean, you’re looking at three years before you start making money on these assets. And we’ve seen this, it’s just so hard to integrate and so much needs to be done when Netflix has, you know, once you have so many different outlets with,

Frank Curzio 41:38

I mean, you’re buying like just, it’s almost like someone through, you know, it’s nice when you have one asset, two assets, three assets. They’re throwing like 30 prime assets, which are good. And now you have to hire people. Do you keep the people from Warner Brothers to run these divisions? I mean, this is something Netflix has never done before,right? You don’t see them acquiring to grow. You see that from a lot of other companies, not with these guys.

Frank Curzio 41:59

And this is new to them. Like acquiring is an art. Like just there’s different cultures,right? So you’re coming in where, you know, we saw this with the trucking industry. I forgot was it the car and somebody else like merged. And it was just, you know, for two years. And they were like, well, you know, we don’t have GPSs on all the trucks monitoring every single thing they do. Then they gave like three weeks,

Frank Curzio 42:18

four weeks, three and a half weeks of, you know, of vacation time where another company gave two weeks of vacation time. And it matters. That shit matters,right? So now you might lose some key employees,right? Different salaries, different bonuses. Like when you’re merging two major companies like this and you talk about studios where, you know, each division that they own and they own, I mean,

Frank Curzio 42:37

it feels like hundreds of divisions, dozens of divisions that Time Warner owns. They have, you know, presidents of each one of those divisions. This is not an easy, like, you know, this isn’t an easy transition where Ellison, they know exactly what they’re doing. This is what they do when they acquire companies. They know exact, they know every division of what they’re doing this second right now.

Frank Curzio 42:55

And I can guarantee you Netflix has no clue. Netflix has no clue. They’re like, we just want HBO and we know this is going to be great for our company and they’re right. But when you’re not used to acquiring companies, that is a, that’s an art. And a lot of people try rolling strategies. It’s why 90% of them fail because just integrating these companies and knowing what divisions, it’s not easy.

Frank Curzio 43:14

It’s not easy. Like getting rid of like half these staffs, getting rid of factories, getting rid of stuff. You have to have all this stuff laid out before you’re even going to acquire. And I can tell you, I bet you Netflix probably knows what they’re going to do about 65% of that business. And the rest, they’re like, well, we’ll just do it as it comes. And I don’t know.

Frank Curzio 43:31

I just, I really believe that when you don’t have a company that’s not used to doing this and you have a company that’s a professional, the best in the world at doing this, which is Oracle and is that and how they integrate all those companies to make an Oracle one of the biggest companies in the world. I just can’t see why the shareholders, how the shareholders are going to say yes to Netflix. I don’t know. And I think when Netflix comes out of this deal and they will, I think you’re going to see Netflix stock go right back to 120.

Frank Curzio 43:51

It’s below 100right now. That’s going to be a good trade to buy it right now because it’s factoring in they’re going to fight a lot right now. You’re going to get it dirt cheap right now, especially with their numbers and advertising. They’re going to have a good quarter coming up. They just started advertising. You know, I like Netflix here. If they don’t get this deal, it’s just if they’re going to fight for six months, you’re going to see this stock basically at these levels,

Frank Curzio 44:10

maybe a little bit lower over the next six months. If they pull out, expect a 20, 25% rise. That’s how I play this. Who knows?

Daniel Creech 44:18

I’m telling you, you’re not as cynical as me, so.

Frank Curzio 44:21

Listen, it’s just that like the competition, like people don’t realize when you have, you now have Apple, you have Amazon, you have Google, you have the biggest companies in the world where this is like their third or fourth division where they spend 10 billion and they’re like, wait, how much did we spend? 10 or 11 billion? Oh, was it 11 billion? Okay, no problem. They don’t even know. That’s how big these companies are. I mean, for example, if you’re looking at the budget of a movie,

Frank Curzio 44:42

if you have a budget of a movie and you could take Cameron and that’s like, you know, with all these Avatar movies are really at the high end. But if you’re taking movies of a budget, maybe 30, 40 million, then you spend another 30, 40 million to market it. You know, if you have more CGI in it and stuff like that, Avengers, maybe you’re looking at, you know, 75, 80 million. The F1 movie, which is on the Apple platform,

Frank Curzio 45:03

they spent 250 million on their production budget and another 125 million to market it.

Daniel Creech 45:10

Wow.

Frank Curzio 45:11

Disney can never, ever compete with something like that. Most of the studios can’t compete with that. So if they have a property that’s really, really good, this is the amount of money. Now you get the Brad Pitt’s in there. Now you’re going to get the George Clooney’s in there. Now you’re going to get the biggest actors in there because they’re like, holy shit, these guys write checks for like 5 million and we got to beg for this at Paramount,right? So when you talk about that type of competition,

Frank Curzio 45:30

one, you got to look at Disney and be like, whoa, you’re still in streaming, you’re nuts. Two, Paramount, good job. Taylor Sheridan, they’re doing great. You know, all of his freaking Yellowstone and, you know, just Landman. I mean, the list goes on and on and on with amazing shows that they locked him in for. But, you know, when you’re looking at this industry, there’s just so much competition.

Frank Curzio 45:49

There’s no way you could tell me that Netflix is going to buy, you know, Warner Brothers and that’s going to limit the competition. Now when you have Apple spending what, 300, almost $400 million on one movie, on one movie, you’re telling me like right now, like that that’s, you know, there’s, they’re going to take over Hollywood? Absolutely not.

Frank Curzio 46:06

Especially with sporting rights and the big guys can get the sporting rights on these things as well. I don’t know. I just don’t agree with Ellison, although I do think they are going to get that bid. They have the superior bid. They have the money. Netflix raising their price is going to result in that stock going into the 80s. So hopefully don’t go over $30 a share because I don’t think Time Warner’s actually worth that. I mean, you know, AOL did the same thing and they found out the hard way,

Frank Curzio 46:25

like Time Warner, AOL and all that stuff when that deal went down. So you got to be careful when it comes to pricing. I know you have egos and you want these properties to work and stuff like that, but there’s a price at the end of the day where this doesn’t work. I don’t see over $30 working for Netflix. And hopefully they don’t come in with a higher bid because, yeah. And if they don’t, the shareholders I think have to take a, take a, the Paramount bid. So we’ll see what happens.

Daniel Creech 46:46

Yes, sir.

Frank Curzio 46:46

Yeah. So covered a lot today. A lot of stuff. I will say this, Daniel, that we have, I’m excited because, you know, for our Curzio One membership, we have the Savvy. We’ll launch the Savvy, the offering either later today or tomorrow. It should be up later today. So if you’re a One member, you’re going to have access to it. Savvy is run by Eric Goldwire,

Frank Curzio 47:06

who is, who founded Bed and Breakfast.com. He sold the home away in 2010 for an eight-figure exit. He co-founded Turnkey Vacation Rentals, so Vacasa in 2021 for a nine-figure exit. And when you see the video on One members, he’s saying, I want this to be my first 10-figure exit. We’re coming in at a $40 million valuation, which is a good valuation.

Frank Curzio 47:26

And this is a company, Savvy, that has a platform. You can go onlineright now. It’s a competitor alternative to Airbnb and Vrbo. They charge no fees to their customers. So it lets them save 15, 20% in fees and uses kind of like an SEO model to get those, is going to charge these, you know, these property owners. And it’s not just individual. They really go into the big,

Frank Curzio 47:45

the people who have like 10 properties, 20 properties, 50 properties. That’s who they’re focusing on. And Eric does a good job. You could tell he’s experienced in this and has a lot of exits because he’s not like, I’m going to replace Airbnb and Vrbo. He’s like, I just want to capture 10% of the market. Even if we capture 5% of the market, we’re talking about a billion-dollar company. And if it’s a billion-dollar company we’re coming to a $40 million valuation,

Frank Curzio 48:05

this guy has the playbook. He’s in the same industry. He’s done it twice. And now we’re the lead investor on this, which I’m very proud to say. So he actually spoke at our conference. A lot of guys, a lot of, there was 125 of our One members that were there. A lot of people went up to him and said, I’m investing in this. This is great. This is awesome. They got to meet Eric personally. Eric was blown away just to see,

Frank Curzio 48:25

you know, the response and how cool everyone was. You know, this is what One members have access to. But I’m excited about the deal. Look, you’re coming to my terms basically. And I invested $100,000 in it. So, you know, you know I’m putting my money where my mouth is. It’s a $25,000 minimum. You have to be an accredited investor. So if you’re a One member and most of you are accredited investors,

Frank Curzio 48:44

you’ll get an email today, tomorrow with all the documents and wire instructions like we always do. We provide a video with all the details. Access you’re going to have to Eric. You get my phone number as well. And we walk you through this whole process as a One member. Some of you are used to the process, so you don’t need that. But that’s the process. And that’s a service we offer for One members. And if you’re an accredited investor,

Frank Curzio 49:03

you’re interested in becoming a One member, which will give you access to this deal. And the next deal I’m looking at, which I’m leaving tomorrow, Daniel. So the podcast is all yours.

Daniel Creech 49:11

That’s right.

Frank Curzio 49:11

Going to California tomorrow and meet this management team, which I’m really excited about for a new issue. And if I like what I see, that’s going to probably come out in early January. But you, One member, you have access to all of our products and services, but access to these special deals. And these deals are getting better and better and better. And more people are coming to us. We’re getting a bigger name out there. And it’s really,

Frank Curzio 49:31

really nice to see, you know, it’s not often where you can get a deal like, like Eric’s where, you know, an eight-figure, nine-figure exit, someone who’s done it twice, like a Dorsey and a Peter Thiel that knows a system. He knows what he’s looking for. He knows how to structure the company to where, you know, the bigger players are going to, you know, he’s not, again, he’s not looking to compete directly with them.

Frank Curzio 49:51

What he’s looking to do is create a company where Airbnb and Vrbo are going to say, okay, we’re going to pay you a billion plus for this property. And that’s the property he’s creating right now because these guys are raising prices tremendously to meet their quarters. And it’s creating that disconnect that he’s seen in the past with other companies that he started. And, you know, I’m hoping he’s successful. And that’s why, you know, I invested 100 grand.

Frank Curzio 50:10

That’s on the larger end of my deals, guys. So I usually invest, the minimum is 25. He said 100 at our conference. And then people asked me, I said, no, it’ll be 25. Don’t worry. So he loaded the 25. But anyway, if you’re interested in private placement deals, you know, which allow you to invest alongside of me, pretty much the same terms, email me at frank@curzioresearch.com. I’ll hop on a call with you.

Frank Curzio 50:31

I had three calls last week. I think everyone signed up. One person is going to, is about to sign up at those three. And they’re signing up because it’s a really good deal to get access to stuff like this. And, you know, just shoot me an email if you’re interested in getting a Savvy deal. You know, if you’re interested in that Savvy deal, email me sooner rather than later. But if you want more information about this, if you want to learn details of Savvy and stuff like that, seriously, email me.

Frank Curzio 50:51

If you want to come in, I’ll send you everything. And we should be launching that deal either later today, you’re going to get an email for your One member or tomorrow, which is really, really cool. So other than that, Daniel, I don’t know.

Daniel Creech 51:03

Safe travels, mister.

Frank Curzio 51:04

Safe travels. Yeah.

Daniel Creech 51:06

Go enjoy another vacation, boss.

Frank Curzio 51:07

Yeah, another vacation. Now I’m going all the way out there, Daniel, which is a killer.

Frank Curzio 51:10

And I’m going all the way out there for like one day to Sacramento. And then I got invited to a Christmas party, which is a really cool Christmas party, which is at one of the most expensive houses in America. And it’s with an investor of mine, One member. And, you know, he’s structured so many deals. The One member’s I want to talk about.

Frank Curzio 51:29

So his name is Paul Kessler. And he invited me to a Christmas party. It’s going to be like 70 people there. And I said, okay, it’s in LA. I think it’s in Beverly Hills. So I said, allright, since I’m in California, I’m not in California often. I’m just going to fly down there on Thursday, on Friday, actually, after visiting this company in Sacramento. Go to a Christmas party on Saturday, then come back.

Frank Curzio 51:48

So I’ll be back in the office on Monday. But the podcast is all yours. And I’ll send you pictures of this house because I’m going to look like a tourist. I bought a green velvet jacket because it says it’s a chic party. I don’t know what that means. But, you know, I guess it’s, I’m dressed in all black and I got a nice velvet green Christmas Eve jacket, which should be nice.

Frank Curzio 52:07

So I’m either going to look like an idiot and stand out.

Daniel Creech 52:09

Very Christmas Eve-y.

Frank Curzio 52:10

Either way, I’m going to walk in like I own the place. So, but there should be some high-profile people there. And it should be a lot of fun. Actually, they filmed the Kardashians show there, Daniel. They just renewed at this place. So they filmed the Kardashians because he doesn’t even live at this house,right? He lives in another house. So it’s like a commercial property. And there’s a second season every nude. And I think it’s something like lawyers and divorce lawyers and stuff like that for women and.

Daniel Creech 52:30

Shocker.

Frank Curzio 52:31

Yeah, shocker. You know, people hate Kim Kardashian, but let me tell you, man, that she is just brilliant. People hate. I love when people say she’s an idiot. They hate her. She is light years ahead when it comes to how to make money. I mean, just the billions that they make and their family makes and how great. And I mean, people hate her. You could hate her. She’s an idiot, whatever. I just love,

Frank Curzio 52:49

like you could hate her, but don’t call her an idiot because, you know, she’s one of the most wealthiest people in the world and just brilliant and knows how to give the people what they want. And the whole hate and everything. And it’s good when people hate you, they’re talking about you. So they’re always talking about Kardashian. That’s stupid. I can just watch that, this and that. You’re crazy. And, you know, they just make a fortune off of it and they entertain people.

Frank Curzio 53:09

And I give her credit. You know, I know a lot of stupid people that don’t make billions. She’s making billions. So, I mean, don’t call her stupid. You could hate her and say she’s just ridiculous. And all the Kardashians are a bunch of idiots. You know, whatever. Just she’s brilliant. She’s really brilliant when it comes to making money. And yeah, I don’t think she’s going to be at the party though, which would be pretty cool if she was there.

Frank Curzio 53:29

I’d like to say hello to her. But anyway, so I think that’s it for us, Daniel. Ohio State.

Daniel Creech 53:34

Yeah, we’ll end on that one. That’s a good one.

Frank Curzio 53:36

Good luck with Ohio State. Are you a Kim Kardashian fan?

Daniel Creech 53:39

I don’t know any of them. No, I don’t have hate in my heart on that. No, I respect them.

Frank Curzio 53:43

Yeah.

Daniel Creech 53:43

I’ve never watched their programs or anything, but.

Frank Curzio 53:45

Yeah. No, it is interesting though. I don’t watch their programs either, but yeah, somebody does.

Daniel Creech 53:50

Oh yeah.

Frank Curzio 53:50

A lot of people do. Maybe it’s the people that hate. It’s like the Yankees,right? If you hate them, you’re going to watch them. The Yankees, just like Dallas Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys are America’s team. You might not agree with that, but you know why they’re America’s team? Because even the people that hate them watch them and want to see that they lose. And that usually shows you that everyone is invested in them. The Yankees, those are like America’s teams because even the people that hate them are always going to watch.

Frank Curzio 54:10

And those markets are always going to do great. Same with Kardashians. Sometimes when you have a lot of people that hate you, that’s a very, very good thing. And they’ve been making a lot of money off it. So guys, I’m leaving tomorrow, leaving the reins to Daniel, which you should be okay for Wall Street Unplugged Premium. I think he said he’s going to come up with how many? Seven new stock picks tomorrow, Daniel?

Daniel Creech 54:27

Maybe, possibly. Give or take.

Frank Curzio 54:30

What is crystal ball? What is a crystal ball?

Daniel Creech 54:32

Yeah, I got my crystal ball right here.

Frank Curzio 54:33

We didn’t touch it. Joe, you haven’t touched it either.

Daniel Creech 54:36

I haven’t touched it.

Frank Curzio 54:36

No, my nephew got from nothing. Nobody’s allowed to touch it.

Daniel Creech 54:39

Get your hands off it.

Frank Curzio 54:39

So we’ll see if it, as soon as Daniel gets a bad pick, we’ll throw it in the garbage. But I think he’s doing okay right now. So, allright, guys. So yeah, we go to California tomorrow. Daniel will have the reins. It’s all you, bud. And Daniel, we’ll see you tomorrow. And I’ll see you guys next week. Take care.

Announcer 54:56

Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money, and your responsibility