Chris Mayer, cofounder and portfolio manager of Woodlock House Family Capital, is one of the most respected analysts in the business. (He also happens to be a close personal friend of mine.)
Today, Chris explains why the outcome of the U.S. presidential election should not impact your investment decisions… and the risks investors should be focused on instead. Plus, he shares two under-the-radar picks he likes right now. [33:26]
It’s earnings season! The major banks have already reported Q3 results… and it’s becoming clear which ones are prepared for the future investment environment… and which ones are going to struggle. Plus, the 15 companies to keep an eye on as they report earnings over the next couple of weeks. [57:13]
Wall Street Unplugged | 743
Your earnings season playbook: 15 companies to watch
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street.
Frank Curzio: How’s it going up there? It’s October 14th. And I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast where I break down the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets.
Frank Curzio: You know, I started Curzio Research to help the little guys: Mom and Pop investors, millennials, help them stay ahead of Wall Street, and I’ve been through the grinder in this industry, having 25 years’ experience, which includes actually working on Wall Street, right across the New York Stock Exchange, managing money with my late dad who had over 30 years of experience managing money and writing newsletters, so I grew up into this business, working side by side with Jim Cramer for five years and working for the largest independent financial newsletter publisher in the world for another five years. But I’ve seen it all, to the point where I can teach you how to avoid all the BS storylines, the pump and dump schemes, tell you who’s full of crap and who isn’t, teach you how to research stocks, like a pro learning from my mistakes.
Frank Curzio: If you’re a subscriber to any one of my newsletters, my newsletters that I write: Curzio Research Advisory, Curzio Venture Opportunities, Crypto Intelligence, I used to send out 10-page reports of all my research and PDF, but now, we changed that format pretty much a year ago, nine months ago. I made it a video format and sometimes these videos take 30 to 40 minutes. You might think it’s boring, it’s crazy, you won’t watch it, but trust me in those videos, I share everything with you. I’m sharing my screen. I’m showing you exactly why I’m recommending a stock, I’m not just throwing out a note to you and saying, “Hey, buy this.” I’m showing you what sources I use, which can be very, very expensive that most people don’t have access to just like if you’re a professional in your field, you have access to the best tools, the best products, same here.
Frank Curzio: I go over my methodology, which is different for every pick. Sometimes, it will be based on value, sometimes growth, sometimes income, sometimes momentum. I’ll highlight different metrics that matter, depending on the company or industry. It’s not the same metrics all the time. You could say sales and earnings trends, yeah, of course. But if sales and earnings have gone a little bit higher, but your subscription growth is going lower, your stocks are probably going to get nailed, especially with social media company, because they’re based on subscriber growth, so is streaming companies. Average revenue per user very, very important, how much everyone’s paying for that service.
Frank Curzio: Same store sales is the biggest thing for retailers. I guess, same store sales go through the roof. Usually, you’re going to beat your earnings, but that’s a big number you want to see. Insider buys, which ones you need to pay attention to and which ones are not really that relevant. There are some that really don’t matter. I’ll show you why it’s important to pay close attention to the consensus estimates, which is what? It’s the sentiment of what the Street, Wall Street, thinks about a stock. When I say Wall Streets, all the analysts, institutional analysts who cover the stock, they’ll come out with their consensus estimates and then you come up with a mean and what they’re going to generate for the quarter and sometimes they could be super conservative. So, hey, you could see on TV. When you watch on TV that JPMorgan just beat their number or Google just beat their number, that number is the JP Morgan’s Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley’s that cover the stock, they all provide their estimates.
Frank Curzio: So a lot of times, you’ll see, “Well, they beat the consensus estimates,” the stock will go up, but those estimates are so low, from last year to this year, some companies have seen revenue decline 30%, but they beat the estimate, so the stock could go higher. But it’s important to understand the consensus estimates because if you think the Street is wrong, that’s how you make the biggest returns by going against the crowd. In these videos, I also provide a buy up to price on every stock as well as a stock loss. You always want to limit your risk, but you see my entire process for picking a stock, which includes in-depth analysis on every single name I recommend.
Frank Curzio: So, I’m not just sending you, “Hey, here’s a text,” a quick note telling you to buy Caterpillar because across a 200-day moving average and it’s a buy, information you could find over a hundred free sites that people are paying for. Again, that’s one of the ways I highlight when people are bullshitting you. Why you should be paying people to give you that information that you could find in a hundred free sites? But for me, I love helping people. It’s what my late father did with his business. It’s what Cramer does. A lot of people have different opinions of him, believe me, he cares about people. I know. This is a guy that went to my wedding, helped me out tremendously in my career. I’ve seen how mad he gets in his office when he gets things wrong, and he’s not allowed to own this security, so he’s getting mad, which I like to see because that means he cares. If he didn’t give a shit, he’d go out, go to dinner, who cares?
Frank Curzio: I see that a lot in this industry. People just shout to the top of the moon their thesis. They won’t even look at any of the facts. It’s always the same thing. Inflation, inflation, inflation, inflation for 15 straight years. Box is going to crush, crush, crush, crush for the last 10, 12 years. Revising that book. It doesn’t matter about the data. It doesn’t matter low interest rate, they don’t care. In the meantime, they’re selling books and making a fortune. You listen to these people and you’re getting crushed.
Frank Curzio: But you could see, I’m passionate about that, and helping people doing the right thing by investors has allowed me to grow my network into one of the biggest in my industry where I interview well-over, wow, over 1,000, think about that, over 1,000 market experts, analysts, economists, scientists, doctors. I mean, you heard it all if you had been listening to this for the past 13 years I’ve been doing this. Billionaires, I think it’s five or six now I interviewed. And helping the little guy also makes me feel good. I mean, it brings me joy. I know that sounds so corny, but it allows me to sleep well at night. It allows me to look in the mirror and be proud. It gives me a sense of pride when it comes to my two young daughters knowing that they’re always watching me. It’s important to me.
Frank Curzio: Yet, the process of bringing you that information, which you see, “Hey, this is what I’m doing, this is what I’m recommending.” Right? That’s what you see. Behind the scenes, everything that happens and things you don’t see, this process is kind of ruthless. It requires asking a lot of questions to management teams. It requires boots on the ground. Traveling to see facilities, mining sites, where I look at the management team in the eye and tell them, “You know what? There’s no way I’m recommending your company to my subscribers. It’s not good enough.” And believe it or not, that happens much more than not because most of the stocks I research aren’t going to make it into portfolio. And unfortunately, when I’m going through that entire process, it could take a few days before I realize, “Wow, this isn’t a good name,” or something really, I didn’t see during the early stage of the research where I’m like, “Wow, this doesn’t make sense.” It happens a lot.
Frank Curzio: It gets to… there’s, to put it in baseball terms, in innings, I mean, I’d get to the seventh inning in a stock and then I’d be like, “You know what? This doesn’t work. It’s not going to work in that process.” Sometimes, you see it right away, but other times, you really have to dig deep. It involves talking to people who have an opposite opinion than you, which is not easy for most people to do. I mean, think about that, right? Say if you believe in climate change, try having a conversation with someone who couldn’t care less and thinks you’re absolutely crazy and wasting your time. It’s not easy. It’s not easy. In so many those times, those conversations don’t go well when you’re talking to someone who just thinks different than you since we’re all biased in one way or another, especially if you’re running your own company, and that includes me.
Frank Curzio: If one of my competitors told me to my face that Curzio Research will never become an industry leader, you run a crappy company, I mean, I’ll tell them to go F themselves, just like any one of you would say the same thing, right? But finding the best stock ideas, the ones that have the most upside potential usually come when you challenge a consensus, or what everyone believes, which almost always, always, always leads to tons of criticism, doubt, anger. And sometimes, you feel strongly enough about something and say if I have the opposite opinion than you, it could result in me losing you as a subscriber, you can’t see a subscription, which happened numerous times over my career. I can’t control that. I don’t have any agenda. My job is to make you money. That’s it. I don’t get paid for anything else.
Frank Curzio: It’s subscriptions, and if we don’t make money off subscriptions, if you don’t subscribe to my newsletter, we don’t make money, so I have to show you returns. We don’t get paid by companies to recommend them, absolutely not. I’ve been offered numerous times. Absolutely not. Integrity is far, far more important than that. But for me, I’ve always learned, and I don’t know if it’s a personality thing, but I always check my ego at the door. I mean, I always welcome debate. I love hearing the other side because that information is critical. It’s either going lead to me strengthening my thesis or force me to dig deeper to find out what I’m missing.
Frank Curzio: So, if you’re a subscriber to Curzio Research, you know I’m not bullshitting you here, because I always mention the bear thesis and my analysis in my videos. I tell you, “This is what they think. Here’s why think differently and why the stock could take off.” In fact, if you’re bullish on any stock, you better understand the bearish argument, you better understand it well. Don’t just look at the positives, you need to look at negatives, or how much you could lose on your investment if you’re wrong, because you’re going to be wrong. Everybody is wrong sometimes. You will, and you’re going to be wrong on the ideas that you have the most conviction. It’s just the way it is in this industry.
Frank Curzio: The ones that you get scared when people are emailing and you’re like “Oh, shit. Did I mess this up? What am I not see?” Those are the ones you’re going to be fine on. It’s the ones that you’re arrogant about, like “This definitely going to go higher, this definitely going to crash,” all this stuff, that’s when you get nailed. But you want to look at both sides, right? It’s critical to everything you do, the both sides of that equation. For example, if you want to buy, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo just reported, you better understand that profits are going to be hurt from low interest rates, which are here forever, which means that these companies better find another way to make money and they really can’t right now. They really can’t.
Frank Curzio: Let’s see economy gets better and stronger loan growth, you’re not. You’re seeing those provisions go higher. Those provisions are put aside for credit losses that could potentially happen. I wouldn’t say likely, that could potentially happen. And take my Citigroup recommendation, which I recommended in 2018, which we sold for a pretty decent profit just before the March COVID crash, which is really like the last week of February. But I love Citi group because they’re buying back nearly 30% of its float over a four-year period. Also using money to increase its dividend. I mean their money on their balance sheet, it was super strong like most banks because of the regulation, which turned out to be a good thing with COVID, right? It helped these guys a lot.
Frank Curzio: I never thought companies would shut off their revenue streams by 90% to 100% over a three-, four-, or five-month period. No one had ever, ever models for that. Trust me, nobody. Federal won’t get credit for that, they always get criticized, but nice job. I was pissed off that the banks had so much capital in their balance sheets and they couldn’t do shit with it. They couldn’t lend it out. I mean, I even had trouble getting a second loan even though I showed everything that, I said I could easily pay for that for a second mortgage to buy my mom a house. I had to pay cash. I’m like, “Are you kidding me? You see everything. You see everything here.”
Frank Curzio: But anyway, I like Citigroup because it didn’t matter if interest rates are staying low, because they’re buying back their float. Earnings are going to surge and their stock did well. I mean, we sold a lot of it, again, pre-COVID and I think we sold out, it was in February, at over $63 a share. Today, it’s $44, but today Citigroup is no longer buying back their stock. Their balance sheet is not as strong. I mean, given those provisions, just like the rest of the other banks, they put aside for potential credit losses, not raising their dividend, those are the biggest factors that supported my thesis. So, that’s not something I’ll recommend today, since the landscape is different.
Frank Curzio: My point here is if you’re long or short, you better understand the risks of being wrong or how much money you could lose, and the only way you’re going to know that, you’re going to understand it is by embracing the other side. Listen to the opinion of someone who differs from you. Challenge everything. That’s what defines American culture. It’s what this country was founded on, debating to find the best outcome or solution to make this country a better place. Where am I going with this? You guys know me, have been following me since January, and I know a lot of you have been following me for decades and many years and some, I’m getting lots of new listeners. Thank you so much for trying this out and hopefully, we’ll fulfill your investment needs. We’ll promise you’re going to get information on this podcast, you’re probably not going to find on any of the podcasts or a lot of the places.
Frank Curzio: But since January, I’ve been covering COVID relentlessly, almost more than any of the analysts in the entire industry. Okay, I’m not an arrogant person. I’m just being truthful. I talked to dozens of doctors, read hundreds of studies, reports, interviewed people on lockdown, Italy, China and that was in March. Talked to numerous sources in China that includes business owners, influential people that that happen to be Wall Street Unplugged listeners, this is a global podcast. I’m honored that it goes out to a lot, a lot of countries. But having that network, helped us get out of the market before the crash. And I even did a special podcast in early February, where I did not have a guest. Now, I can count on one hand the amount of times I haven’t had a guest on my podcast in 13 years, rarely happens and I came on and I said, “Look, I don’t want to have a guest on. This is a special podcast of Wall Street Unplugged, because nothing that they’re going to say is more important what I’m going to tell you right now.” I actually said that. “This message is important, and we can see an imminent crash in the stock market.” Something I never said in my 25-year plus career. And this is based on China closing its entire economy and it seems obvious, right?
Frank Curzio: You got Apple, Yum! Brands, Levi’s, Starbucks, hundreds of chip companies that supply the world’s biggest entertainment products that are the biggest selling entertainment like the iPhone, Galaxy, flat screen TVs, car components. Every business in the biggest growth market in the world was closing down due to COVID, and this was public information. Companies made these announcements in early February before the market started its downturn nearly three weeks later. You go look at the news. Look when Apple started shutting in stores. Yum! Brands, look, it’s early February. Market started crashing around the 20th. They were trading at a huge growth multiple in the U.S., because U.S. was doing great, doing fine, yet we were shutting down the country that accounted for over 40% of the world’s growth in 2019, so the math didn’t add up.
Frank Curzio: But by challenging the consensus, because nobody predicted an MMR collapse due to COVID in February or even into March, not until the market fell more than 20%, I mean, I didn’t see anybody, maybe. Again, I’ve been wrong on calls, too, but this one, I haven’t seen anybody make. Telling you to get out of market three days before it crashed, three weeks before it crashed. But challenging, the consensus, believing in my in-depth research, my due diligence, I was able to save people a lot of money, which is something I’m really proud of. That’s the reason why you listen this podcast, it’s the reason why you subscribe to my products, it’s my job. It’s what you pay me for. I got to tell you something, it’s always better to save people money than make people money, as crazy as that sounds. Because anyone could get a few picks right and that’s okay, but helping people avoid a massive loss, they will follow you forever, because you care about them, because there’s nothing in it.
Frank Curzio: If I’m recommending something that’s a buy and I’m invested in it, it’s great, but say if I’m avoiding something that there’s no benefit for me by telling you that, you’re going to be out of the market, but then if it happens and you save money. That’s a real big deal. It’s almost like you know that person has your back. We really strengthened our brand during COVID. But that’s why I find it incredibly interesting when I post data about COVID on my social media feeds, even talk about it on this podcast, because when I do, I get tons of negative feedback, which is okay. I like the criticism, it’s fine, but almost like these people believe I have an agenda. Guys, I don’t have an agenda. I don’t care about anybody out there. I mean, I don’t. If my research tells us what we should do, or how do we make money, I don’t care if it’s one of my best friends who’s a great analyst. It doesn’t matter.
Frank Curzio: This is about you. This is about my business. You’re going to have difference of opinion, even if your friends sometimes. I don’t have an agenda. I just have access to information that’s public, that’s not being published in mainstream media that a lot of people don’t see, like 94% of the 216,000 Americans who die from COVID since February, it’s a tragedy, they also had at least one underlying condition 94% of those people. And most of them had more than one underlying condition, whether it be asthma, obesity, respiratory problems or like if you’re under the age of 15, you have a much greater chance of dying from the flu than from COVID. Those statistics can be found on the CDC website. People get pissed when you say that. “It’s not the flu. It’s not the flu.” We’re learning more about it. There’s more information out there.
Frank Curzio: But based on this data, my research talking to people, that’s why I’ve advocated strongly for schools to open back up and believe me, I have a lot of stake saying that. My youngest daughter has Crohn’s. She’s taking Humira, which lowers her immune system, but based on the data, the protocols I saw that her school is taking, which are great, wearing masks, separating the desks. Why have I decided to send her and my 12-year-old to class, which was two months now? The best decision ever. My daughter’s interacting with their friends, most of them are new friends since they’re attending new school this year. They’re smiling, laughing, calling each other to help with homework assignments. They come home, they talk about their day with me, the friends in school. It’s a necessity for kids during their growth process, being interactive with people.
Frank Curzio: We’ve all been through it, at least most of us. You need those interactions, but of course, not at the cost of safety, but again, the numbers, the data show that kids not only show mild symptoms, most of them when they get infected with COVID, but also rarely transmit the disease to adults. These are the studies. And it’s not just kids under 15, anyone under 50 with no underlying conditions should view COVID like the flu. Aware, you definitely don’t want to catch the virus, but if you do, you’re going to be okay within a few days. That’s what happens to most people, not everyone, but most 99.5%. And like him or hate him, our President is 74, I’m going to be nice and say mildly obese, so he’s in the danger zone, has underlying conditions, worst candidate gets COVID and is fine five days later. Yes, he’s the President. Yes, he receives special treatment, and that treatment will be available to every American. And most of those treatments are available right now.
Frank Curzio: And I’m bringing this up, because I’ve been doing a lot of research on one particular aspect of COVID. One that’s highly controversial, angers a lot of people and we’ve seen people fight on airplanes because of this, and supermarkets curse and wish death on each other over this topic, and I’m not kidding. That topic is wearing masks. If you go back in March, you see Fauci and other infectious doctors, including members of the CDC, again in March, who said that, “Masks are never going to work.” Now, they changed their tune after looking at studies done in April and May, what you’re supposed to do as scientists. You want to be able to get this thing right, you’re going to be wrong. This is something new.
Frank Curzio: And I don’t want to pick on the people who were wrong at the beginning unless they’re touting how great they are in how they handled the situation when most people at the higher ups on both sides did not handle this correctly, right? We all know that, but it was new. We get it. It’s never happened. This never happened like they’d have locked downs every place. But you’re looking at Fauci, CDC, right? They change their position on masks, which you’re supposed to do as scientists or be willing to change your thesis based on the data or the new data that comes out, but studies are all over the place on this now, like in most areas of COVID.
Frank Curzio: I mean, did you see that the estimates of people who are asymptomatic or those who are infected, but never developed any symptoms? I mean, I read papers where the percentage of Americans, it ranged from 18% to 80%, depending on study read. I mean, what does that tell you? 18% to 80%, give me a break. Really, that’s the opinions? It doesn’t get crazy or wilder than that, right? Not too much wilder anyway. I mean, take the average from 16 major studies that are from unbiased sources, it said anywhere from 40% to around 45% of people are true asymptomatic. But they’re still not sure if these people can transmit the disease. Again, another debatable topic, whichever side you’re on, it’s okay, but it is debatable.
Frank Curzio: And then when it comes to masks, of course, these help droplets from getting into your mouth, breathing them through your nose when you’re talking to someone who is infected with COVID. Most are in agreement with that, but droplets are pretty big and you really have to be standing within one to two feet of someone unless they’re shouting at you to get droplets from their mouth into yours. But when it comes to aerosols, where smaller particles could stay in the air for seconds, studies show that most masks won’t stop these particles from penetrating. They could easily bypass facemasks and this is based on a study from the Cleveland Clinic, which a lot of people respect. And we saw a study come out from Health Affairs and this is from June 26 that said it’s evident that masks work and their research is based off the growth rate in COVID cases after we mandated mask use, which was whenever, May?
Frank Curzio: So, this study is from June, when most of the lockdowns were still in place. So of course, if people are at home, COVID rates are going to go down when people are home. And we fast forward to today, more and more people wear mask than ever. You see people with masks everywhere, not everyone but you do. You see it everywhere but yet the cases of COVID are rising. Now, if you’re political, you’re going to say, “Well, that’s because Trump is holding rallies and most of those of people are not wearing masks.” I mean, you look at the recent rallies, look the crowd. Almost everyone in the crowd are wearing masks, some people aren’t, most of them are. For me, I’m interested in getting the truth, the facts, the data here. No agenda, no politics. And right now, I’ve not read medical Investing studies showing that masks or mask use prevents the spread of COVID.
Frank Curzio: I’m going to get tons at frankcurzioresearch.com. I’m going to get all these emails. “You’re crazy.” Send me studies because a new study has just come out from 11 major outpatient healthcare facilities. This is across numerous States and this study analyzed a group of people who tested positive for COVID during the month of July. It’s a pretty big group, too because I really criticize people who are like, “Well, COVID’s not working for these five people that I interviewed.” Remember that on CNBC that had that? What a joke. What was it? In 14,001 trial, another 10,000 in another trial.
Frank Curzio: They interviewed the five people that fit their thesis that said, “Oh, you know, I feel sick after, in phase three of the trial.” Give me a break. This is 800 people, 800 people, 18 years old, so I’m not talking about 20 or 50, 800 people, who are infected. Of those infected, 70% of them said they always wore masks while 14% say they wore masks often throughout the day before becoming infected. Think about that for a minute. That’s 84% of people who wore masks, including 70% of that number, who said they will mess all the time, and they still contracted the virus somehow.
Frank Curzio: Now, I know several people personally, that have COVID, who are in the danger zone, so they are over 70 years old and they wore masks every day. I’m talking about these personalized masks that covered their whole face to where you could barely hear them talking, which is good. They want to be protected. They’re in the danger zone. You see them wear all these masks religiously, they all got COVID and most of them are doing okay with the exception of one, who had underlying conditions, who’s not doing well and my prayers go out to her. She’s the wife of my daughter’s former principal. A very nice lady. But I’m seeing more and more people who are wearing masks, contract COVID.
Frank Curzio: And where am I going with this? I’m not telling you not to wear masks anymore. I’m wearing a mask at every place I go to that’s publicly, that’s indoors. I’m doing this because it makes people who are in the danger zone feel more comfortable. Not because I’m afraid of catching COVID, which I’m not. I don’t have any underlying conditions. If my daughter catches it, we could take her off Humira for a few weeks, that’s what the doctor said, since it’s a very small dose right now, but I’m not worried. I’m not telling you not to wear masks, but the purpose of this segment is you should always be allowed to challenge the status quo. When has this changed in America where people’s opinions based on tons of research and data and doing the work they totally get dismissed unless it supports someone’s agenda?
Frank Curzio: And bringing us back to finance and investment research, imagine if I couldn’t challenge the consensus with stocks, how to follow advice of Wall Street, these institutions that are biased given they generate investment fees from companies that provide research for you? You don’t get more biased than that. Imagine if we weren’t allowed to challenge that. We’re not allowed to say who’s full of shit, which one of the things of doing, if you’re a Curzio Research Advisory member, shorting our first stock, a couple of big hedge fund managers own it, two of the best hedge fund managers on it, and I think they got to be wrong. It does it get more controversial than that. Challenging two people I really respect that I’ve talked about often. This is the first show I’ve had in Curzio Research Advisory, maybe the second.
Frank Curzio: But you got to be willing to challenge a consensus. Always be willing to listen to the other side. And you do that with your investments when you make them? You should be doing that as a business owner because listening to the risks, the other side are going to help you prepare for them or help even avoid them which can result in a lot of your competition going under. And you becoming an industry leader, whoever survives on the other end. We’ve seen that with countless market crashes and recessions and look at the leaders after the tech crash. Amazon’s, Microsoft’s, reason why they have such strong balance sheets because they lived through that time where they almost went under.
Frank Curzio: But keep an open mind to what’s going on. No matter who you support, whether Democrat, Republican. I know it gets crazy and emotions get nuts right now. And I get, I understand it. But in the end, the only thing that matters is you and your family. And I can assure you, politicians don’t give a shit about that. They give a shit about themselves. They give a shit about power. And think about it, we can’t even come up with a stimulus plan because we’re arguing between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion. I don’t know what’s in there and who favors whatever, but what I know is that these people that are really struggling out there and they need it, they need this money.
Frank Curzio: I mean, if you look at restaurants, some of them are open. We’re open here in Florida, one of the firsts since May. These guys aren’t past 75% capacity. They have the table spread out still. A lot of these restaurants, bar owners, gyms, they only make money after that 85% capacity, they’re not even there yet. They can’t survive much longer. They’re okay. They’re a float. Some businesses are thriving, but others aren’t. But you really can’t come to an agreement if they really cared about the people? Don’t you think they come to an agreement if they cared about families? It’s not.
Frank Curzio: But do your own homework. Challenge the consensus. Don’t believe everything your reader here, including me on this podcast. Research everything, fact check it, because at the end of the day, if we find out that mess really don’t work or we don’t really need them anymore, our economy is going to open up much quicker and it’s going to be a big boom to so many stocks that have underperformed the markets like airlines, cruises, casinos, even the oil industry, anything travel related, so pay attention to it. Don’t dismiss it because you’re watching someone that says otherwise, because you read one study out of 50. Keep digging and do the homework.
Frank Curzio: I don’t mind the criticism, email@example.com, I’m here. That’s okay. But again, I don’t have an agenda. I’m trying to help you guys out. I’ve been covering COVID since January. We’ve done a very, very good job. I feel like we’re still ahead of the curve in everything that we’ve been saying. I take pride in this. But do your homework, even if you disagree with someone. It doesn’t mean you have to hate them, call them names, whatever, just do the homework. Do your research, keep digging because at the end of the day, it’s only going to make you smarter.
Frank Curzio: And that brings me to this week’s guest. Someone who hasn’t been on in a while, you’re very familiar with if you’re a long-term listener. I’m glad he’s back, because he’s one of the smartest stock analysts I know with great connections, well-respected among institutions and the hedge fund community. His name is Chris Mayer. Chris used to write newsletters. Now, he’s a fund manager, spoken at major conferences like the Value Investing Congress, has a knack for finding stocks that are even off my radar. He’s about to share some of those picks with us shortly.
Frank Curzio: And in my educational segment, I’m going to break down earnings season, which is here, right? Started seeing the banks, I’m going to analyze a lot of those, which ones I like, which ones I don’t, but there’s a lot of companies that are set to report over the next three weeks. I’m going to highlight all of those companies, who are on deck. The ones you need to pay close attention to and also, the conference calls I want you to listen to. It’s going to give you a good indication or us a good indication of how economies are performing around the world. Which ones are spending more money? Which ones are not coming back as quick? You could learn a lot from the company of the conference call you’re listening to that has operations in so many different geographies.
Frank Curzio: But by listening to the names I’m about to share with you and listening to their conference calls and paying close attention, not just the earnings and sales when the stocks go high, but listening to what they’re saying about their entire industry. It’s going to lead to dozens and dozens of new ideas. Something I do every quarter. So, you’d have to pay close attention to this segment, because I’m going to be mentioning at least, at least 20 to 25 names. But first, let’s bring in my friend, someone I respect very much as an analyst. And that’s Chris Mayer.
Frank Curzio: Chris Mayer, thanks so much for joining us on the podcast.
Chris Mayer: Hey, Frank. It’s always good to talk to you. Good to be on.
Frank Curzio: It’s been a while, man, right?
Chris Mayer: Yeah. I think it has been a while. I don’t think I’ve talked to you since this whole pandemic hit.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, it’s because you’re like a fund manager now, right? I mean, in newsletter day, I had access to you. Now, I don’t have access to you as much, right? You had gone out of here.
Chris Mayer: That’s right. We’re at Woodlock House, that’s the thing. It’s all different.
Frank Curzio: Woodlock House. You know what? Let’s start there, Chris, because yeah, you’ve been in the newsletter industry all your life. I love your work. Obviously, I respect everything you do and now you’re on the money management side. And sounds like you’re pretty happy about this, right? I mean, how are things going?
Chris Mayer: Yeah, well, actually, this is my third gig. So, my first career was in corporate banking. I did that for about a decade. And then I did the newsletter thing for about 15 years. And now, I’m onto managing money at Woodlock House which grew out of work I was doing with the Bonner family office and the Bonner family seeded the fund, and we opened our doors in 2019, January 2019, so yeah, I like it a lot. It’s a lot of fun. It’s interesting to do, of course. And really, it’s not all that different. I mean, I’m still researching, still talking to a lot of the same people. I’m not traveling because of the pandemic, but it’s the same, a lot of the same and in fact, I own some of the names now that I had before, so but it’s fun.
Frank Curzio: You know it’s funny you say that, too, because you’re one of the people, I mean, I always are telling people how important it is to boots on the ground, visiting facilities, visiting the countries. I forgot how much you actually do that, so it has to be tough for you, right? I mean, you’re on the road, like it seems like every other week.
Chris Mayer: Yeah, I was, and now, I haven’t been on a plane since March 3rd was the last, last time I was on a company visit in Milwaukee. And everything else I’ve been doing by phone, and it’s kind of interesting, because I probably talked to more management teams this year than last year. Because, they’re traveling either, they’re available as well. And so, I can recall specifically incidents that I have where I’ve emailed the CFO in the morning and I’m talking to him that afternoon, so everyone’s got a little more time, I guess. And this is the preferred way to do things. And so yeah, it has affected me, but I don’t know, I’m still getting it done. I’m still getting the work done.
Frank Curzio: I know, right? Always finding a way to get it done, so I mean, you mentioned COVID. And let’s start there, right? Because we have stimulus coming out, not coming out, but we already have like $6.5 trillion in it. What are your thoughts on COVID? What do you see next year, say after the election? We have the election and even election, I mean, is that a big risk that you look at or is it kind of, obviously, there’s a few sectors, depending on which candidates going to get elected, and I know, you don’t want to get political here but yeah, does that mess with your allocation or how you’re looking until? I know, you’re mostly long-term, but still, are you looking at the election as a big factor of who’s going to win? And also, what are your thoughts on COVID heading into next year? Is this all going to be a major risk to economic growth?
Chris Mayer: Yeah, I think you hit on it when you said long-term because I think short-term, yeah, it’s going to be it’s a risk to create some volatility around the markets and certain names, but I’m not looking at anything saying, “Well, I want to own this if Trump is President and I don’t own this if Biden’s the President or vice versa.” So, long-term, it hasn’t affected what I’m doing. I just don’t think it really is going to matter all that much one way or the other. I know, people always want to say this election is important. Whatever election is, it’s always important, but eh. You wake up the next day, you’re still in the same house, you still got the same stuff, you’re still doing the same things. It doesn’t really change that much. I think people overrate that. In the long term, over the long-term, I don’t know that there’s much difference when you look at who the President is.
Chris Mayer: On the pandemic, I think that’s maybe a more interesting question, because this is something that when it first hit, I was of the opinion that it would be a pretty quick correction, that things would be back to normal, relatively soon, I can remember having conversation with people saying, “By summer, this will be forgotten. Everybody will be traveling again.” And that turned out to be dead wrong and I’ve revised my opinion about a month and a half into it. So, I’ve had to reposition the portfolio quite a bit. But I do think that this has and will have permanent effects on some businesses, that some things are just going to linger for a long time.
Chris Mayer: Thinking about say the way restaurants are run, the way hotels do business, the way aviation is. It’s just going to be, it’s kind of like, when we had 9/11, there was the way you traveled before and then there was the way after. Now, people who didn’t travel before 9/11 forget how security was before that and how easy it was to get in and out and get to your gate, but now, it’s different and people just accept it. And so, I think there’ll be a lot of things going forward that will be different because of the pandemic and people just adjust. And I don’t think this will be the only time that this happens.
Chris Mayer: I’ve read a number of different research papers on this topic about how we should expect more of these kinds of viruses making leaps from, and more of these kinds of things making leaps from animals to humans and wreaking havoc. So, I think it’s a new risk to underwrite, that’s what I’ve told my partners and something that even though I’ve been in the business for 25 years investing, I’ve never had to invest through a pandemic. And now, I have a new risk, so it’s something I think about. How is this business going to perform if there’s lockdowns or if there’s social distancing or whatever?
Frank Curzio: Because I like the way you put it in terms of airlines, like people did forget. And so, I think we’re almost, I don’t know when it changed so much. I don’t know if it’s social media. It sounded like an all or none, right? Yes-or-no world where it’s not that flying is not going to exist after this, but it’s certainly changed. I mean, to the point you’re right. I mean, you can go on and strap a pound of marijuana, we’ll put it underneath your shirt and everything, and “Yeah, get right on.”
Chris Mayer: Yeah, yeah.
Frank Curzio: Now, I get it. They’re probing you. It’s crazy.
Chris Mayer: Right. And I remember, you’ve been traveling in Asia and you’ve done this as well. Wearing masks is more common over there. You just see it. If someone’s sick, they wear a mask. It’s different over there about it and maybe something like that will be more common over here.
Frank Curzio: It definitely makes sense. So, I want to get into I think a lot of people were looking at you as a value guy, and you know so many deep value managers. We do know deep value has been out of favor or at least, deep value names with little growth catalysts, but can you explain how it’s important to, even with your methodology, I’ve always noticed, you’re able to adapt to current conditions, because I’ve seen you recommend a lot of growth companies even on this podcast, and a lot of those times that they are under the radar, even under my radar, which is pretty cool, I love to hear those ideas. But how important is it to absent markets, even if it means going against the style of investing that you may have spent decades learning?
Chris Mayer: Yeah, you have to, you definitely have to adapt. I mean, otherwise, the market just carries you out, so I know a lot of value guys, who haven’t been able to adjust to the new world and who still think things are cheap, because they trade it 10 times earnings or less, and don’t seem to really understand that the amount of capital required to generate those earnings is a big factor. And the capital light businesses are more valued than ones that require a lot of reinvestment and these other little aspects that create value. So yeah, you have to, you have to adapt, it’s important to adapt.
Chris Mayer: You have some core principles of things that you will always stick to and those core principles for me are things like you know how I always talk about the importance of having good owners and proper incentives. Those things stick no matter what. I’ve always been a guy who invest with strong balance sheets, companies that are in good financial position, don’t have a lot of debt, and that’s something that sticks, too. I don’t do that. But there are some things that you do have to change.
Chris Mayer: I mean, think of all the way markets have changed, just in the last decade. You have passive, which has been dramatically bigger part of the game, but probably bigger and more important than that are interest rates coming down so low and that changes the game, too. I mean, you have to adjust now. Something that trades at 25 times free cash flow, that’s a good business. It’s growing and it has good returns on capital, that’s probably a pretty good price these days. Dare I say, even cheap? But that’s something that would have been crazy to say a decade ago, even when treasuries were four or five or whatever. So, you definitely, you have to factor in the rates, that’s one big thing.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, And I could tell you, I think it was from, let me see, Martin Jefferies, I think. Somebody did a really cool report. He’s showing like the highest growth names and what they have in common to the rest of the market. They had the lowest debt levels. They’re growing much, much more faster than overall market and good management teams. I mean, this isn’t like the tech bubble days where you had five-pages to your website, you had a billion-dollar valuation. I mean, these guys are seeing tremendous growth. It’s sometimes vary like I don’t know how you price it with Zoom and Peloton and things like that.
Frank Curzio: But apparently, as long as you’re really growing and growing a lot faster and bigger in numbers, that’s the market you want to see and it’s important to make sure, I would think that any new recommendation or something that you’re buying has some kind of growth catalyst or growth component to it. Right?
Chris Mayer: Yeah. I mean, I think also, this, I remember seeing an interview with Andy Serwer, who interviewed Warren Buffett earlier in the year, and he asked Buffett if he thought the FAANG Bubble would pop and if those companies would come back, and Buffett said, “No, quite the opposite.” He said that those companies, their lead would widen and that’s because he pointed out that they don’t require any capital. They don’t really, they can continue to grow practically with very little capital or no capital. I mean, not Netflix, but the others, Facebook, certainly Microsoft, and so on, Google. And so that that’s an interesting moment. So, he sees it.
Chris Mayer: And the challenge, the big challenge today with investing is there’s a lot of these kinds of companies you mentioned, Peloton. There’s a lot of these kind of companies that are coming on that have these potentially big markets growing very fast, but maybe the economics are not quite as clear. And that’s harder for me to play in that space, where the company doesn’t necessarily have good cash flows today or generate good returns on capital today, but they’re investing a lot and it’s more of a forward story and the valuation so high. But there’s a sweet spot in the middle. There’s some very interesting growth stocks that I was able to buy and still get 4% or 5% free cash flow yield or three, even down than three, but they’re growing very quickly and they have great balance sheets, great managers. And I think over a period of time, you’ll do well in those names.
Chris Mayer: You have to remember, too that good businesses have a way of surprising you. One example I always, I like to talk about or I like to bring up with people is Amazon. When you think about it, it started out selling books, that’s it. That’s what they did. And I remember when, I remember seeing all kinds of analysts, who would write reports saying, “Well, look at how overpriced Amazon is there, even if they captured the entire book industry, stock is still expensive.” But obviously, what people couldn’t see is that they created entire new businesses and new markets. I mean, now AWS is one of the largest software companies in the world and that’s embedded within Amazon. And so, even when you look at Apple and they’ve created entirely new markets over the time. So, good businesses can surprise you in that way.
Frank Curzio: Even Netflix. I mean, they used to mail you movies.
Chris Mayer: Well, that’s right. Yeah, that’s right. Netflix is another great example. Look at that. Look how they’ve transitioned. If you could have gone back and seen how this would, how they would evolve. I mean, it’s amazing.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. It is pretty incredible. So, we talked about this early when it comes to investing globally and for you, you’re one of the people that I listen to the most when it comes to global investing because you do so much traveling, which you said, you’re not really doing as much, but at least you’re able to contact a lot of people, through Zooms and Skypes and things like that, but we’re all seeing massive stimulus plans from most central governments looking at COVID, the death rate as a percentage is heading lower in lots of regions. Is there any specific country or countries you’re looking at that offer, great value to investors, which a lot of them are trading at a good value, but also have that globe potential?
Chris Mayer: I don’t know I’d think about it quite that way. Where I would think about it is a country as a whole. I mean, if I look at my portfolio now, the biggest holding I have is listed in the UK, but it’s not like, necessarily, I see the UK as a country having a lot of growth, et cetera, but this particular business has a lot of potential there. I also have a business listed in Italy and in France, but they’re more international operations, so I think there’s a lot of interesting things to poke around in Western Europe. And I don’t know, that’s a market I like because the disclosures are often pretty good and everything’s in English. And just, yeah, so that that’s not as much a culture shock invest there. But, I would love to find something great to invest in in say, I don’t know, India, but it’s difficult.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. It is definitely, definitely difficult. So, I’m going to put some pressure on you here, because every time I introduce you, I’m like, “Chris always gives us these under the radar names that a lot of people never heard of or whatever,” so if you have any of them but, and I know you love sharing some of your ideas, but if it’s not under the radar names or the trends that you’re following.
Chris Mayer: Right, right. Well, I could give one under the radar name, perhaps. Well, it’s on my mind this morning, because Devon Energy said, they’re going to buy WPX. It’s kind of a big push in the Permian Basin in Texas and this follows on another deal, too. I forget, I think it was ConocoPhillips talks to buy Concho Resources also in the shale. So, oil is not very popular right now and oil has come way down, but the Permian Basin has some of the lowest costs in the country. And there’s a company that I like, I own there called Texas Pacific Land Trust. And they have assist royalty play on the oil and gas, so they own the land. So, companies come and drill there and they get a little piece off the top. And the economics of doing that are really, really high. I mean, their return on capital in some years pushes 100%. It’s extremely cash generative type business. They have no debt.
Chris Mayer: And so I really like that. It’s come down a whole bunch. It’s cheap now. They also have a water business, so not only do they get a kind of cut of the oil that comes out of their land, they also help with… they also provide water and then recycle that water and sell it back again. And so, that’s a really interesting one. And there’s also some movement now going on with the company’s converting from a Trust to a C-Corp, and that will happen at some point in the fourth quarter. That will be a nice catalyst. There’s activists involved led by Horizon Kinetics, which owns a quarter of the stock. And I think what you’ll see then when they convert, you’ll see better disclosures, you’ll see a big buyback announced, I’m sure. And I think that one’s a nice one to hold long term because, at some point, that situation will look better for oil, whether it’s next year or the year after, but in the meantime, you want a debt-free company that throws off a lot of cash and has tremendous, economics if oil should ever go up again. This thing will multi-bag from here. So, that’s one I think that’s a… and of course, full disclosure, we have a fund. I own it and I like that one.
Frank Curzio: So, it’s funny because Texas Specific Land Trust, my late dad, it was one of the recommendation that he’s followed for probably 30, 35 years. Very familiar with the story, like the whole entire thing, and I’d say, he has researched on it, because it’s pretty incredible, but he’s recommending the single digits, and I think my mom still owns shares. She still only shares of that from 30 years ago, but just, it was a self-liquidating trust. It’s from the railroads put together, they went bankrupt and had to pay their owners. So, basically, all the money they generated from royalties, they basically had to buy back the stock, so it was like 2 million shares outstanding.
Frank Curzio: But to see where that company went, and when I think it was an $800-range or whatever. I know, it’s pulled back, but yeah, that’s a name that that’s dear to my heart, because I still get people who followed my dad for a long, long time ago, older investors, I always say, “Specific Land Trust, you’re still on?” It is a fantastic store. I got to send you the research though, it’s pretty cool to see the research back then.
Chris Mayer: Yeah. That’s cool. Yeah, I think that’s an interesting one. It seems like it’s hard to screw it up, right?
Frank Curzio: Yeah, especially at this, right? But you know what?
Chris Mayer: I mean, there are other interesting things to own that I think if you’re thinking you got a long-term focus and you’re countercyclical, you want to invest in some of the things that have had a tough year now, I think, I always like a company called Exor list in Italy. It’s also, there’s a pink sheet in the U.S., you can own Exor, E-X-O-R, is the name of the company and it owns, among other things, it owns Ferrari, which is a great business, and then has a reinsurer and owns a piece of Fiat Chrysler and CNH Global, but anyway, you add up the market value of its holdings and stocks, probably 75 or so Euros and the Exor trades for around 47, 48, so you get a very good discount there.
Chris Mayer: And John Elkann who is the CEO. He is one of the better capital allocators around in my opinion. The Agnelli family owns half the stock and they just announced buybacks. So, that’s another one I think downsides pretty low and you’ve got really nice upside there if things bound back to normal. So, that’s a couple of perhaps under the radar names that I like that maybe your listeners will find interesting.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. No, definitely, definitely, definitely. That’s definitely under the radar. So, that’s cool and yeah, I like the Pink Sheets, too, because it’s not that easy to buy stocks in Italy, but-
Chris Mayer: Right.
Frank Curzio: All right, so Chris, if someone wants to learn more about you because I just, I asked you that question now, I was like, before we actually got on and you told me to Woodlock House, but I noticed that you have a blog on there, which is cool.
Chris Mayer: Yeah. Yeah, so I write a blog. I try to put something out every other week, but yeah, I mean, if you just Google Woodlock House comes right up. Woodlock House Family Capital, and you’ll find the blog. And so, what I write there, I write about sometimes names I own, sometimes names I’m looking at, and I share some research that I’m doing last. Last time. for example, I talked to the Treasurer of Old Dominion Freight and I wrote some notes from that on the blog. And then I’ll write about books or other interesting ideas that come up, so yeah, people can find me there. I’m also on Twitter @Chris W. Mayer, M-A-Y-E-R, so two ways to find me.
Frank Curzio: Nah, that’s great stuff. And I love that because usually when I’m interviewing someone, I’ll take like a half a day to read everything they wrote over the past few months and I’m like, “Chris, where are you?” And you’re like, “Let’s just freestyle.” I’m like, “Okay, we’re good at this. We could just freestyle and go with everything,” but I see that like a lot of this stuff is and that’s at, what? At woodlockhousefamilycapital.com, but you just put…
Chris Mayer: Yeah, yeah or yeah, you could just Google Woodlock House and Woodlock, my Woodlock House comes up first, so and you can find a blog there. Yeah, I’ve written about the… last time I wrote about sort of scarcity of industrial land, there are a couple of companies that have locked down land close to big cities. It’s very hard to replicate and a couple of weeks before that, I wrote a piece on the big picture talking more about interest rates. And I’ve had other little profiles of companies and ideas before that, so it’s fun to write and I just sort of write it when I feel like I have something interesting to say, but it usually comes out about once every other week.
Frank Curzio: Nah, it’s great stuff, Chris. And listen, love having you on. I got to get you back on more often because again, I always love your ideas. I respect you as an analyst. I think you’re fantastic. I always learn something when I talk to you, so I really appreciate you coming on, man. I really do.
Chris Mayer: Sure, man. It’s fun always talking to you and yeah, we’ll have to do it again.
Frank Curzio: Sounds good, man. I’ll talk to you soon.
Chris Mayer: After these ideas play out well and double, then you can be back on.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. If you go down, I’m going to have you back on.
Chris Mayer: That’s right.
Frank Curzio: But that’s great stuff. So, Chris, yeah, thanks for being on and yeah, we’ll have you back soon.
Chris Mayer: Take care. Bye-bye.
Frank Curzio: As always great stuff from Chris. Miss having him on. Always sharing new under the radar ideas, but again, I’m truly honored to have him back on to be his friend. I mean, he used to be a newsletter junkie and the reason why I say I’m honored because he knows so many people in our industry that are great analysts, hedge fund managers, and a lot of these people, not really hedge fund managers so much, but the analysts, money managers, they don’t know how to market themselves, and these are people that have great track records, but nobody really hears of them. They don’t know how to market themselves, like others who know how to market fantastically, who will just take a guy off the street that you never heard of and say, “This is the greatest investment that we’ve ever seen who made billions of dollars for all the institutions,” and when you do a Google search, he is nothing to be found about that person, right? They’re just very good at marketing.
Frank Curzio: But the people that he’s introduced me to, he passed a lot of those people onto me, knowing that Curzio Research could help them and bring value to our subscribers, our listeners. So, I use that word, I don’t use it lightly, but honored, yeah, Chris, like me knows every analysts and publisher in newsletter industry, but to have that kind of trust in me and Curzio Research and what we’re doing here and introduced all firms and meet his closest friends, see if we could help him out or get this stuff published out there, it’s just really, really cool and something I truly appreciate. So, I want to thank Chris for coming on. I always say this. I love the interview. It doesn’t matter what I think. This is about you. Let me know what you thought. Send me an email at frankcurzioresearch.com.
Frank Curzio: Now, let’s get to the educational segment, which is earning season. Thus far, numbers have been pretty solid. Solid because they’re beating super conservative estimates, but more important, one of the biggest trends that I’m seeing is many of these companies are now offering guidance and that’s being rewarded, right? Because that creates certainty. If they’re giving you guidance, you could actually model how much they’re going to spend in R&D, on Marketing. You had no clue, and the market went up with these companies saying, “Here’s our numbers, and we have no idea what’s going to happen next quarter, maybe next six months.” And people didn’t care because you just reached $6.5 trillion. The Feds reached $6.5 trillion at the market. They really can’t do much, prop up a lot of these names. But that’s one of the trends I’m seeing.
Frank Curzio: You’re looking at one second, which large cap banks most important less than stellar results. And JP Morgan was okay and Citigroup Wells Fargo Bank of America report a weaker than expected numbers, which was mostly due to low interest rates, which is interesting because interest rates are going to stay low for a very, very long time, but also large unexpected provisions to account for potential credit losses. I mean, these companies aren’t buying back their stock, they’re not raising their dividend, they have low interest rates, that interest rate, low interest rate, it’s important. I mean, higher interest rates is very, very good for the banks, their net interest margin increases and they make a lot of money.
Frank Curzio: So, not too keen on the large banks so far, Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, blew out their numbers, they were an investment bank. Don’t rely on those low interest rates for profits. And Goldman Sachs numbers shouldn’t surprise you if you follow my newsletters. I mean, it’s not a traditional bank. They thrive in environments where there’s huge volatility and tons of liquidity. Two factors that are going to be around for a very long time. So, we had Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, these are names that are cheap, based on price to book, PE that will grow significantly, significantly faster than the overall market at least over the next 12 months more likely over the next 24 to 36 months. So, get used to these blowout earnings and sales beats, I think both of those names are cheap. I really like Goldman Sachs.
Frank Curzio: But more important, earning season, the next three weeks, lots of companies are reporting. So, today after the bell, United Airlines numbers are going to be terrible. They better report terrible numbers because they’re asking for more money from the government, so Delta just did, numbers were bad. They’re not going to put great numbers. They’re saying “We might have to lay off. We might have to do this.” They got to play it, so they’re going to get money from the government.
Frank Curzio: Taiwan Semiconductor, largest manufacturing chips in the world, the most facilities. They’re going to report tomorrow. Definitely listen to that call. Lots been going on with China, big speech made by the President, and a lot of chip companies, it’s going… it could impact. There’s a lot of news going out. You see an animosity between China and U.S. right now, but Taiwan Semi, and they manufacture chips for Apple and dozens of major companies. Definitely listen in to that call, very important. You’ll get a good indication of what’s going on not just in China, in all of Asia, Europe. They’re at everyplace.
Frank Curzio: JB Hunt Trucking, that’s on Friday. Are we seeing a pickup in demand, which is a good indication of the economy rebounding? We hear that the economy’s rebounds, rebound, let’s… we should be able to see through trucking companies. We see numbers from FedEx that blew out incredible numbers. UPS. Transportation companies. Pay attention. On Monday, Halliburton, this is a call I want to listen to since there are a lot of boats coming out of the woodwork on energy. We had Kris Mackintosh on. You see how bullish he is on energy. I’m not too bullish on energy, but I think there’s other sectors that will benefit well-ahead of energy if the economy does open back up and gets busier. But these are one of the largest oil service companies, Halliburton along with Slumber J.
Frank Curzio: But I want to hear what they say about demand in the U.S. and abroad, and especially what they believe on fracking. If they’re worried that a democratic win could result in considerably less fracking over the next four years, which is a massive profit generated for these guys. I’m not being political here. We just know that what was said three, four months ago by Democrats running is that “We don’t like fracking, we don’t want it.” And now, they just said “No, no, just on Federal.” And then you have like the left saying, “No, fracking is really bad.” I want to see where this goes. I don’t know if they’re going to ban all fracking. I don’t think that they would do that. I hope they don’t, because they’re going to lose millions, if not tens of millions of jobs. But Halliburton should have a good indication, I want to hear what they say.
Frank Curzio: IBM’s on Monday, October 19. I want to learn more about their restructuring, they just announced. Spin out these fast growing divisions like Cloud, data analytics, social, that should be exciting. Lockheed Martin, Tuesday, October 20, one of the largest defense companies. I mean, defense companies have been pulling back. Are they worried about spending being impacted based on who wins the election? If so, this is going to impact R&D for the entire sector. I want to hear what they’re saying, what they believe so, because a lot of these companies are going to be axed by analysts about what happens with a Democratic win or what happens with a Republican win, are you going to spend money differently?
Frank Curzio: And some of these company, I would say most of them, are going to say “No, business as usual. This is what we’re going to do.” But there’s certain industries that are going to be significantly impacted, significantly impacted. Major tech companies. You’re looking at October 29th, pretty sure all of them are reporting on October 29 as in Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook. And so, Netflix on the 20th, Microsoft on the 27th. These are the biggest companies, trillion-dollar market cap with some of these guys. I want to see their numbers, especially Apple with the new iPhone coming out. Where’s demand? Where’s that guidance going to be? They better offer guidance. They should be offering guidance this quarter. Amazon, how did Prime Day do? Facebook, political ads, what’s going on? Banning them, not banning them? Just, it’s a big source of income for them.
Frank Curzio: The recent reports by Democrats and the Republicans saying that they want the Justice Department to regulate these guys and go after them, which is interesting because all these companies donate, I mean, tens of millions of dollars to both parties, most of them going democrats now, but still, it’s amazing how, I don’t know if it’s helping too much in terms of getting these guys on your side or bribing them, which is lobbying.
Frank Curzio: Disney, a little bit later. It’s about early November, but I’m very curious to see their numbers which their streaming numbers are going to be up a lot. Yeah, they’re going to highlight this. But what are the numbers from Mulan? We didn’t hear that right? $30 to subscribe. Something different could have changed the industry. We didn’t hear anything about it. So I’m not expecting much. How does a company plan to generate billions of dollars? How are they going to generate billions of dollars it needs to spend on new content given that every other division within Disney is struggling mightily, and the one that’s doing good is the biggest money losing division by far and they just said, “We’re going to go all in,” which means you’re going to lose a lot more money going forward at least over the next four or five years if they ever become profitable with that division, which is going lead to numbers coming down probably.
Frank Curzio: But I want to hear how they’re going to generate the billions that needs on that new content because you’re looking at those divisions that are struggling, struggling mightily, they’re going to continue to struggle at least over the next six to nine months. They’re not going back to 80% capacity at any park soon. You’re not going to see people on Broadway, going to Times Square to get tickets, movies, people going to theaters. That’s not going to happen anytime soon, not to the point where it gets to 80% plus capacity.
Frank Curzio: You have Cummins Engine, truck engine manufacturer, October 27th. GE. It’s important to listen to GE call, not the GE as an investor, they have operations all over the world. It’s one of the best conference calls you could listen to that will give you access to numerous industries that they’re in. Zoom is on December 3rd, that’s a little bit later, so curious to see their growth numbers. I said Zoom growth numbers, I’ve never seen growth numbers like that over pretty much a three- to six-month period in any company ever. It’s just unbelievable. ExxonMobil later this month. Diamondback Energy. Let’s hear what these guys have to say. I want to learn more about fracking and how they feel about the oil market. Are they pulling back? Are they adding rigs?
Frank Curzio: Humana healthcare, November 3. Triton International. It’s an interesting company, October 23, one of the largest container rental leasing companies. You’ve seen exports surging out of China that’s filtering down to the U.S., kind of is. I mean, we’ve seen ports all over the country reporting record demand. We’ve got another company that can give us a great indication or information about the current economic environment in America and also abroad. That’s what you want to do during earnings season. If you’re a true investor, I’m telling you, you want to listen to conference calls. You don’t have the time to listen to them, you could download the transcripts, it’s easy. But pay close attention to this, it will lead to numerous ideas, even if you don’t like them. Like Triton, if you listen to it, you’re going to understand where the growth is coming from, which economy is doing good. It could lead you to buy ETF in China, in wherever, but it’s important.
Frank Curzio: You get an amazing, amazing outlook on what’s going on around the world listening to certain companies, a lot of these companies I just mentioned. So, please pay close attention. You’re going to hear me mention that in podcast, you’re going to hear me mention it in newsletters, but earnings season should be very, very interesting over the next three weeks, hoping that most of these companies provide guidance. And let’s see how they finish because most of them are going to be beating current estimates or street estimates because they’re very low right now. So, it will be interesting heading into November 3 Election, a lot going on, but definitely, definitely follow these companies or at least try to read the transcripts of these calls. They’re all going to happen pretty much in next two, three weeks.
Frank Curzio: So, guys, check out my free report on Curzio Research, just go to our website, curzioresearch.com. It’s called The Third Option. A lot of demand for it. Do we get stocks? Sectors are going to benefit from Biden win? A Trump reelection? But the third option, which is chaos and uncertainty, which means we may not see a decision on this or people might not believe it, and that uncertainty can result in the markets coming down. So, I cover all this absolutely for free on our website, curzioresearch.com. It’s a pretty good report. I spent a lot of time on it, covered lots of stocks, lots of sectors, if I had to guess it’s a more 50 stock recommendations are in there that you should focus on based on a Trump win, a Biden win, also that third option, how to make money if that happens and we see uncertainty because we do see this last for weeks and then months, believe me, the market is going to come down, how do you protect yourself? How do you make money? I explain all that in that free report.
Frank Curzio: Also Curzio Research YouTube page. We got lots of cool videos. I’m going to be doing pre-market video soon to tell you what’s going on. It’s going to be 8:00, 9:00 in the morning. That’s going to be found on our YouTube page, so be sure to subscribe, and that’s for free because this is fresh content. You’re not going to find this on a podcast. Yes, you’ll hear me mention it if you’re a subscriber and things like that, but a lot of this is fresh content, you’re not going to hear on the podcast. You could find a lot of stuff on our Curzio Research YouTube page, which we’re going to be doing interviews and doing podcasts through video format. We just really focus on the video and the feedback has been absolutely amazing, so really, really cool.
Frank Curzio: Last thing here and presenting at the MoneyShow, which is virtual event and that’s going to be tomorrow at 2:10 Eastern, so be sure to sign up. I’m going to talk about new asset class, let’s title it, “Will This New Asset Class be the End of the New York Stock Exchange?” You guys know what I’m talking about since you followed me. Talk about security tokens, how this new technology, which I’m using myself, launching on Curzio Equity Owners Token, which is about to go free trading this month and how this technology can provide you with a way to get in early on some of the biggest growth companies in the world. So, it’s going to be great, great presentation.
Frank Curzio: And last thing here Curzio Research Advisory subscribers are going to get two new picks later today. It’s going to be available. It includes an amazing growth in income name, huge growth potential. Companies that have been beaten up, starting to come back now because of high dividend, the S&P 500. Those are the new growth stocks and the other recommendation is the first short ever, I’m pretty sure it’s the first short. I did buy an inverse ETF once in this newsletter, but basically the first real short. And this name is one of America’s favorite companies.
Frank Curzio: I told you guys in the beginning, always challenge the consensus. Let’s just say that with this recommendation, the shortest name, I’m jumping with both feet here. It’s going to be controversial since two of the biggest hedge fund managers in the world just went along this name, and I think they’re going to be wrong. It’s a great issue. It’s a video issue. You could follow along all my research, but it’s going to be out later today. You should get it around 6:00 PM to 6:30 tonight. So, guys, thank you so much for listening. I really appreciate all your support. And I’ll see you guys in seven days. Take care.
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- Guest: Chris Mayer of Woodlock House Family Capital [33:26]
- Breaking down Q3 earnings season [57:13]
Today, Frank did something he rarely does: He recommended a short trade to his Curzio Research Advisory members. To make it even more controversial, it’s a bet against one of America’s most beloved companies…
And Frank thinks it could return 200% or more. Access this name today—and many more under-the-radar picks—with a no-risk subscription to Curzio Research Advisory.