With the presidential election just around the corner, 2020 is set to be a big year in the markets. The results of the election will inevitably affect your investments.
Curzio’s own Daniel Creech is back on the podcast to discuss his take on the candidates and how to play election season going forward.
We also discuss how we go about researching our newsletters… and how to manage the volatility of small-cap stocks in your portfolio [13:31].
As we roll into January, we’re about to enter a very important time of the year: conference season. Conferences are some of my favorite places to conduct my boots-on-the-ground research. I break down how attending or following these conferences can lead to incredible gains… and which ones you should be paying attention to in 2020 [42:41].
- Curzio’s new service, 2-Second Trader [00:30]
- Guest: Daniel Creech, analyst as Curzio Research [13:31]
- Educational segment: The best conferences to attend in 2020 [42:41]
Wall Street Unplugged | 699
Why you need to start preparing for 2020 right now
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from wall street right to you on main street.
Frank Curzio: What’s going out there? It’s December 11th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcasts. Why break down the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. It’s a big day for Curzio Research. Launch Rich Suttmeier’s 2-Second newsletter this morning. Our investors for the first time going to be able to use a Black Box trading system, which Rich built using numerous numerous data points that he’s learned over his 40 year career. And he’s tested the system against 30 years of past data to help find future trading patterns and stock sectors that he takes advantage of. And a Black Box is basically an algo system. And we hear about these and I talk about them all the time. And I always say, you either have to adapt or die because you’re looking at companies like Two Sigma never had a losing year. These funds are not focused on what the company does, how many employees they have, what the earnings are.
Frank Curzio: It’s just looking at trading patterns and being able to execute these trades in seconds, in less than seconds, millions and millions of trades. And to have access to that is really cool. So if you’re looking at the average investor, and my goal at Curzio Research is always to bring my experience and everything I learned and my network and stuff and bring it to average people. That’s what my dad did his whole career. That’s what I’m doing here. And it’s been very good and we’re growing and it’s a lot of fun. And when it comes to this, it’s something that I’m really proud of because if you’re looking at how would you get access to a system like this, you need basically minimum $10 million just to get into a fund that use this methodology. Some of the biggest funds I mentioned like Two Sigma, they never had a losing year.
Frank Curzio: You have Renaissance Technologies, you guys are familiar with Bridgewater. These funds are even tough to access where some of them have said, we’re not taking on any more. No matter how much or a large pension fund comes to them, teacher’s fund, whatever it is, CalPERS and says, hey, we want to put in, 10, five, three billion dollars, whatever it is. They’re like, “No, we’re not taking on any new funds. A lot of these things are closed.” But when I look at Richard’s system, it’s pretty amazing. You saw firsthand through Chart of the Week that was a segment where we publish for free. So you can basically get an idea of how powerful system like this is. Because if you look at the track record, Richard’s right on almost every one of these trades that he offered in Chart of the Week. And he’s been doing it I think for about five, six months.
Frank Curzio: And now Rich is gonna be making these weekly trades only to paid subscribers, which takes them two seconds to find these trades through his black box so it’s the reason we named it 2-Second Trader. But I wanted to provide even more value to investors. Because the goal isn’t, hey, let me say this newsletter and if you’re pissed off a month from now, what are you going to do? You’re going to tell everybody, this is terrible, this is horrible. I don’t like it. That doesn’t do anything for us. When we get subscribers, we want to keep it for the next 10, 15, 20 years. That’s the goal. So I always ask myself, being in this industry, what would I want? What’s the best way, the most useful way you could use this? And of course falling which is one way, but I wanted to provide more value where I struck a deal with Rich where we now have this system in our Curzio Research arsenal where we put it on our site for every subscriber that’s going to subscribe to second trader, they could use it.
Frank Curzio: What does that mean? If you want to check out the buy and sell levels for all of your stocks, not the ones that are recommended in our newsletters, Curzio Research, the ones that are in your portfolio, you could do that. Just got to put in the symbol. It’s going to spend on a price where you should buy close to, and sell near or basically take profits as it approaches that level just about every single stock you enter into that system. Now the entire system, it’s not the entire system which should be using because Rich gets his levels through these systems, but that’s a starting point. He puts another layer of analytics on top of it where he tracks even more technical indicators where it’s oscillators, moving averages, even looking at time horizons where it’s a weekly, monthly, semi-annual, annual periods since these companies trade differently depending on the time frames.
Frank Curzio: And they might have different levels because we know after every quarter, companies report earnings. That’s a big volatile period for almost every company. But some of these companies are presented at conferences, which I’ll get to in a little while from now, which is big and you’re going to see volatility then. So he may look at a weekly or a monthly or semi-annual level where that’s how he’ll recommend his trades and it’s a complicated system. It took me a while to fully understand. I’m explain it right now and I’m amazed by it. I really got deep into this system over the past a couple months but now you can have access to it, the Rich’s newsletter and also access to a system which we’re calling the Black Box tool where you can enter your own symbols and find your own training levels for stocks in your portfolio.
Frank Curzio: So look, if you’re on a mailing list, you’re going to get a special offer from us. If you go on and subscribe, please use the link that we’re sending you because I’m really offering a really, really good deal where it’s not just a huge discount on the price, but we decide to give a full year for free away to you guys. So if you subscribe, you get another year for free plus a huge discount to the price. So if you do subscribe to the software, you get Rich’s service for a year, you get a discount, you get access to everything and again, you’re going to get another year for free. So it’s only good for the first few days available to you, which are the people who’ve been following us for a long time. And then after that period, we’re going to be selling it for a much higher price after the offer ends.
Frank Curzio: So if you’re not interested, some people not interested in trading and not interested, that’s fine. It’s my job to tell you, “Hey, here’s a system. We did lot of work on it. We got Rich, we locked him down, he’s really excited and it’s our first product we launched in 18 months so we’re really, really excited about it.” But if you’re going to take advantage of the offer, make sure that you do so through that link because that’s going to give you the best offer. You’re not really going to see that any place outside of Curzio Research. So if you’re not on our mailing list, just go to our website, Curzio Research, put your name in the box. That’s how you’re going to get the best offers for our products. If you’re already on our mailing list, you’re probably getting information about this and we just been talking about a lot over the past two, three weeks, exactly how the system works, how Rich came, his history which is remarkable.
Frank Curzio: He’s got so many stories but I did want to highlight in the opening today because I’m getting tons of questions. I know I’ve been talking about launching this newsletter for a while and we’re just really, really, really excited because again, this is the first newsletter we launched in a while and it’s just really exciting times and now we’re going to be launching more products through 2020. It’s a lot of fun here and my team’s working hard so I got to give them a lot of credit. If you have any questions, give me a shout firstname.lastname@example.org. Now I have a great guest for you today, which you always give me positive feedback every time he’s on.
Frank Curzio: He was on twice, and that’s Daniel Creech. He’s a stock analyst I hired close to two years ago, around two years ago I believe. And he’s done an incredible job. He works side by side with me in Florida for most of this time. Now he went back to the West Coast. He covers every stock in every one of my portfolios, listens to the conference calls, reads those quality transcripts. And this process is extremely important because you’re forced to cover tons of stops across multiple industries. So I throw them into the fire and he’s responded positively. It’s been really great. And listen, the reason why I put him through this process and junior analysts through this process and throw him right into the fire, because that’s how I learned from my mentors, say, “Where is my dad?” They were rough on me. Kramer was rough on me because at the time I didn’t realize it. Now I definitely realize it, but they saw a lot of potential and said, “I’m gonna give this guy my time. And when he makes mistakes, I got to be all over him.”
Frank Curzio: And I always thought that’s the way you want to learn, right? You don’t want to get pat on the back for not doing a really good job, or if something doesn’t go right or you’re wrong, you could be like, “It’s okay, it’ll be fine.” No, it’s what’d you get wrong? What do you need to do? How do you get better? And it’s just a state of mind. And Daniel has and he’s been fantastic, but he’s come such a long way and we’ll be launching a newsletter from the future probably in 2020. And this is going to be a great interview. He’s going to break down a few stocks in our portfolio, and don’t worry if you’re a paid subscriber, these are names that are well above a buy up to prices and also he’s going to share a few his own ideas with you. Stocks that he believes, not me, that he believes all my analysts had their own opinion. I never tell anyone what to right. That’s the policy here.
Frank Curzio: Even if it’s against me or whatever, or a stock that I like that you think is going to go down, everybody has their own opinion. Every analyst that I hire, this is an independent firm. That’s what I want. I want you to have more opinions is a better this way we make the best investment decisions. So these are Daniel’s picks, personal picks that he likes and I think I share about one or two of them with you, which is really cool. And he’s also going to give you his view on the political landscape because that’s going to influence a lot of portfolios. It’s a good conversation and we keep, I want to say politics aside or whatever, but this is about your portfolio. It isn’t about if you’re Democrat, Republican, we talk about the candidates that are coming in, but how is it going to impact your portfolio, how’s it going to impact sectors. So really, really great interview coming up. Then my educational segment. I’m going to get tough on you because I know it’s the holidays, the year’s winding down.
Frank Curzio: You’re about to spend tons of time with your families, which is the most important thing by far. But right now, right now, you have to make a game plan heading into 2020 and find time to do it because there are tons of conferences, major conferences in early January, mid-January. I’m attending the CS from the fifth to the 10th, speak at the Vancouver Resource Investor Conference two weeks later. There’s also numerous healthcare conferences, energy conferences, retail conferences, and a lot of great companies are reporting and going to report their updated numbers and also give you an outlook on what’s going to happen through the year, their strategy, their growth initiatives. If you look at a biotech, a lot of these companies report data at some of these conferences for their signature drugs, but you want to be ahead of that because my biggest gains have come from preparing. Before going to these conferences I’m going to give you tons of examples. We’re going to share lots of ideas. This is going to be a great segment.
Frank Curzio: I know how busy you are. You look at folks, you say, “Let me relax and just can’t wait till the holidays get here.” Just do a little bit of homework. Just a little bit you can every single day because there’s a lot of conferences coming, a lot of companies presenting, and it’s going to give you a chance. I’m going to show you how you can make a ton of money. I’ve made a ton of money but I’m preparing now to get into some of these names, one conference or right after the conference when they report data. I’m going to share lots of those names with you in just a few. Now speaking of conferences, Chris is in Vegas right now doing a little boots to the ground of his own. Well, let’s get to that interview right now. Daniel Creech, thanks so much for joining us on Wall Street Unplugged.
Daniel Creech: Hey Frank. Great to be back. Thanks.
Frank Curzio: So out of everybody that works for me, which includes over 20 employees now when counting consultants, you have an inside view of just about everything I do and working side by side with me. It’s because you’ve helped me manage my portfolios in CRA and CVO, and Curzio Research Advisory and Curzio Venture Opportunities, writing alerts, helping writing alerts, knowing every single data point at every stock I recommend, which is really cool. So let’s start with CVL. What have you learned following a portfolio like this which covers small and micro caps especially since you’ve been involved the last 18 months, because this is a portfolio that could be crazy volatile.
Frank Curzio: You’ve seen the great times and also the bad times where the first seven, eight months of the year we’ve seen the Russell underperform the overall stock market by a wide margin, biggest margin is 17 years, and now a lot of these things have bounced back. But go with that because I know what this portfolio you’ve seen so much. And real quick guys before we get to the answer is this is a newsletter designed to find stocks before everybody else. So a lot of times we’re the ones that are providing the initial research on it, which is cool. But I wanted to get your thoughts as someone behind the scenes of what you saw with CVO.
Daniel Creech: Yeah. So CVO, the Curzio Ventures it’s an incredible newsletter because it makes you, I mean we do great research on all the newsletters, but it makes you really test your thesis because you have to get comfortable with the environment you’re in and volatility. And what I mean by that is it’s not unusual for these stocks to move five percent or more in a week or sometimes in days. Basically every investor out there is okay with volatility. Everybody says, “Oh yeah, I’m comfortable with volatility. I can take on risks as long as the stocks moving in your direction.” Well, if you say you’re comfortable with something dropping 20%, you’d buy more then when it actually drops 20%, it’s going to put you to the test. So knowing your environment, knowing that these are volatile stocks and nature and the risk reward is a great setup.
Daniel Creech: That has been a big learning curve. And I’ve had the chance to work with you a little over two years now and it’s been great, and time has really helped that. But it’s definitely just, “Hey, make sure you know your thesis, do your research, and then you have to learn to block out that noise.” But it is difficult. We have a lot of good colorful conversation when things are not going our way and that’s good because we care. Yeah, it’s definitely a learning curve, but it’s great to get in that environment and in the zone.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. You know what I love about this newsletter is it humbles you. So if you ever have a big ego, now I’ve learned over 20 years, over 25 years. When things are good, I start getting a little nervous, and things are really good right now. A lot of these stocks have bounced back and we have a conformance of both newsletters. But you’ve seen some of those times and we all go through them where everything makes sense but it’s just not working from a stock perspective. And why don’t you talk a little bit about, I want to give away a couple of names here and these are names that were up a lot on so paid subscribers aren’t going to be upset, but a company even like AVAV which is AeroVironment, which got into early. And even bigger is Invitae because we’ve actually watched this stock everywhere it is now.
Frank Curzio: But we came close to stopping out. We always want to limit our losses. So we had a pretty big stop on this thing. But just go over that because I think when people understand that, and again to this newsletter, it’s getting better where I used to get so many questions from subscribers saying, “Frank, what do we do? The stocks down 10%.” I’m like, “Big deal. You got to get used to that otherwise this newsletter is not right for you.” But overall, both of those thesis really worked out but it’s over the long term. But in the short, Holy cow, I mean even for me, I’m like, “Whoa, these things are all over the place.” But talk about it, especially Invitae, right? This is one that we’re early on. I know you’ve done a lot of research on that stock as well, but just the volatility is pretty crazy, right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. I said earlier, you can move five percent or more in a week or a day, that thing can move 20% or more. And it’s also crazy because when you’re dealing with companies that aren’t necessarily profitable yet, so you have to exclude that and focus on the long term goal and then see if management can execute which they have as you said, invites a genetic testing. The number of tests they’re doing is going through the roof. It’s absolutely incredible and it’s a big picture story. But the other side of that is that it teaches you these companies you have to expect sell offs. Even if they don’t have a ‘bad quarter,’ the stock may react like it’s a bad quarter, but that’s just normal. And again, that gets back to the environment. The other thing that these stocks have taught me and the volatility is to learn how to take your winners. So you’ve got to respect the market.
Daniel Creech: When you get a big gain, it’s okay to take money off the table. We have a few positions in CVO right now that we sold the first half of the position, Invitae being one of them, for well over 100% gains and you continue to hold the second half, and that really helps with the volatility as well. So that’s been a great learning curve. But Invitae a just makes you focus on the catalyst as you always drive home the point. You got to know your thesis and you got to have a catalyst for the stock to move higher and management to execute. But you just have to keep your focus on that and as long as they’re doing the core thesis, as long as they’re still going after that main goal genetic testing in this case, then you have to ignore the volatility and the noise and yeah, we came pennies from closing out on that one and now I think the second half is over 160% gains. So it’s a wild wild ride.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, it is a wild ride. From our perspective, if I were to listen to this, when I was talking about Daniel, my perspective is, our goal is really to buy at the lowest price possible and sell at the highest price possible. But when I’m getting into these names, I’m thinking that that’s the lowest price. And then when you see these things decline 15, 20%. And sometimes it’s going to be on no news, like we saw at the Russell, a lot of our stocks got nailed earlier in the year. But sometimes these things come down for, maybe they’ll announce a secondary offering, which Invitae did, where they raise a ton of money and a lot of times the stock will fall, but they raise money this way they’re fully funded for the next two years. It’s what they’re going to do with this money. But you’ll learn going along the way, well maybe I could’ve gotten a little bit cheaper. Why I didn’t see that coming?
Frank Curzio: But it’s always learning. And that’s one of the things I love, especially about this portfolio. But let’s bring another stock too because we’re getting tons of questions unannounced doing very well is RAP technologies where, this is a company that you saw from scratch the type of research that we do here, the type of research that you’re going to be doing, the boots on the ground and stuff like that. But talk a little about that situation because that’s another name where for me recommending it, I thought, “Hey, this is the perfect price and the stock did fall and now everything’s really starting to blow up the stock and this name is doing very well. They’re getting a lot of publicity like I expected.” But I didn’t expect it to really fall 25. We were thinking we were up 40% and then it was down 25% and now the thing’s really starting to roll higher. But talk about that whole process and give everyone maybe the behind the scenes view. Because that’s one that we both researched. We did a lot of homework on together.
Daniel Creech: Yeah. This is an interesting name. I’m very fortunate to see from the very beginning on that. I remember you flying up to New York and meeting with people and doing the tapings and all that and when we started digging into this. Again, the boots on the ground is key because that just helps you drive home your core thesis. So when you fly up there, when you’re meeting with management team, when you can talk to people, you get a sense, not that we have any insider information, but you get a sense on how it’s going behind the scenes and you understand it’s just, okay, you can read a conference call transcript. But you don’t get the tone, you don’t get the emotions behind that. So you really get to dig in.
Daniel Creech: And that boots on the ground research just says, “Hey, this is the thesis and it helps you reiterate that because you’ve been there, you’ve seen that, you’re actually talking to them.” So just from a macro perspective that’s incredible that you get to do that. I can’t wait to do that myself and to go around and meet with teams and find ideas like that. So when the stock is out of the gates, we recommended that, like you said, we were up pretty close to 40% if not more and then all that went away. So while that’s terrible and you never see the seam go down because you know that, “Hey, I’ve been here. We know the core thesis.” From the macro standpoint, it’s a genius company, right?
Daniel Creech: The BolaWrap nonlethal device, basically a batman device that restraints individuals, it allows police to get more time to make the arrest or whatever. But it’s a nonlethal tool and that’s huge because as you see with taser and there’s a lot of lawsuits and there’s problems with that. So this is a great idea from the get go. And then just the boots on the ground research just reiterates the thesis when the stock’s not moving in your favor and you just wait for execution and you know what’s going on there.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, it’s amazing. I found this name out through a close friend, the hedge fund industry, and then I met the person who’s the executive director who is a hedge fund manager, very big, lots of success with other stocks that he’s backed. And just meeting him in person. He had some of the top law officials there like the police chief of all chiefs, basically and that’s Don DeLuca. And he shot me with this device. I said, “I want to get shot at because I want to see the whole thing in perspective.” And it was just unbelievable. And I got really attached to the story because I’m just talking to the cops and interviewing all of these cops up in the field, decorated officers, even famous cops and stuff, Bo Dietl I interviewed before I got shot with this device. But just talking to them and seeing the emotion saying, “Man, I wish I had this device.”
Frank Curzio: That wraps you up and shoot just fast a gun. A lot of it is used for the mental community, which one of every four calls are from mentally disturbed calls, which these people just walk at you, they come at you and you don’t know what they’re going to do and you have tase them and that could kill them depending on their heart condition, which has happened. And taser is a good option but it’s not a non-lethal device. It’s called a less than lethal device where this is 100% non lethal, this rapture up that puts hooks in you. I couldn’t break out of it, kevlar and as you try to get out of it, it tightens and those hopes dig into you. But it was amazing just seeing their reaction. Like man, I wish I had this device. Because they were in situations where it didn’t go well and the last thing cops want to do is actually take out that gun.
Frank Curzio: Forget about what you hear in the media and stuff like that. 98% of the cops are good. There’s bad apples in every single industry. But seeing this whole entire thing come to fruition and being, so I cover taser very extensively during the early phases and the fact they hired the co founder of tasers, the president, and now the LAPD chief just got shot live on live television, which was really cool. This wasn’t stage and Ellie got shot. This is live so they could have messed up everything and it was amazing. You’re getting more attention to this and starting to get orders and it’s pretty cool just to see this whole thing come to fruition right now. But yeah, I was glad that you’re involved in that process and it’s a stock that I know. It’s a fan favorite.
Frank Curzio: It’s something that I’m excited about, but it’s really cool. And yeah, I’m glad you saw the whole research behind it, how it’s come through, but also how sometimes it doesn’t go your way and that just happens in this industry and it didn’t go our way at the beginning and now it is and it’s coming back and I think everybody’s making money on that stock. But I want to get back to some of the things that you talk. When we have conversations, one of the things you’re passionate about Daniel is politics. And it’s an election year. You have strong opinions about this. Talk about the election year coming up. Talk about some of the things that you see happening and what sectors maybe that could get affected or stocks or individual names or whatever. But you have pretty strong opinions on this and I have to say that you’ve been right so far for the past couple of years and yeah, I’m interested to get your thoughts.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, I love talking, arguing, debating about politics only because it’s just a fun lose-lose situation. You can always poke fun at the other side and it’s a good time. So I don’t want to sound like a permeable. And I’ll get to how my thesis could change developing over the next six months. But listen, Trump’s the president, it’s very hard to unseat a sitting president and he has all the momentum right now. And I think two of the most important points to watch out for our consumer sentiment and consumer confidence, which remains to be very strong, and interest rates which remain and are going to remain very low as federal chair Powell has basically given Wall Street a roadmap saying, “Hey, we’re not going to raise rates anytime soon and we may even let inflation run over our two percent target.”
Daniel Creech: So what does that mean? That means easy money, lower interest rates. People will borrow, people will spend, and that is going to be a huge driver to the economy going forward. And people vote their pocketbooks when it comes down to the end of the day. And that’s why Trump is absolutely in the driver’s seat. And what I think will happen in the politics in the world here is I think within a few months, Hillary will announce that she’s going to run for the simple fact I’m a very simple person and I think that there’s an entitlement feeling there and I feel like she feels that this last election was stolen from her. And as human beings, we do not give up power willingly. So I think it’s only a matter of time until she throws her name in the hat with everybody else.
Daniel Creech: And I actually think that the markets will react just fine to that. Like I said, I’m very bullish going into the election year and I’m a little hesitant. Like you said, it’s very humbling when things are going well you need to be cautious. But because the consumer is strong and I’ve traveled. For the last several months, I’ve been on the road at different places and I’ve been all around the country. I’ve taken several Uber drivers and they are all talking about how their local economies doing well, construction is going up. I drove into Vegas last week, heading south on the 15, and I couldn’t believe the outskirts of Vegas and how much they’re building out. So I say all that to look at material stocks. And as Trump gears up for his reelection, he’s going to have to tell something, and that’s going to be the economy in the record stock markets that we’re having.
Daniel Creech: But what that’s also going to be as an infrastructure bill, and I know the politics love to talk about that all the time and it’s something that both sides have agreed on ‘in theory’ for a long time. But yeah, nothing gets done. That’s the nature in Washington. But I think you can look at material stocks. US concrete has sold off and not really participated as along with other material stocks, which kind of shocks me so I would look to that. There’s a company HD supply which has two business segments, one for facility and maintenance, and the other one for construction from everything to commercial to residential. The interesting thing about HD supply is that they recently announced that they were going to split into two different companies. So they’re going to separate those business segments and they’re going to operate as their own individual companies.
Daniel Creech: I know you’ve covered this a lot in the past, but a lot of times when you get these spin offs, it creates great synergies and momentum because a division can now be ran by individual people who are nothing but passionate about that specific segment. They can allocate all the capital to growth markets and a lot of times you get a boost from spinels. The other thing Trump can do is he’s basically like a director or something in like a movie because you can change as you go. Well, if this doesn’t make sense, well we’ll change this. And he’s already touting a tax cut, a payroll tax cut of some sort, and who doesn’t like to have more of their own money? So as the election years up, get ready for a full ring circus, you’re going to hear all kinds of crazy proposals from both sides. Anything is going to be thrown at everybody. I know it’s serious, so I don’t mean to laugh at it’s not a big deal, but it will be entertaining as hell. So everybody ought to enjoy as much as they can.
Frank Curzio: Now, even with the Hillary thing is interesting, right? And I always say, try to put politics aside, all right? So many people get along but as soon as you throw in what side you’re on, it’s automatically have to hate you. Right? That’s the way it is now in the world, especially in social media and all that crap. But when I look at Hillary, if she runs and I’m saying, okay, how could they beat Trump? I don’t think any of the candidates have a shot to be honest with you. Maybe Bloomberg, let’s see if he gains traction. I just think the other counters are way too far to the left and they’re not appealing to the middle which is what they need to win the election. They’re appealing to their base, which they’re going to get those votes anyway. So when I look at Hillary, one of the things is America loves comeback stories, but they effing hate sore losers.
Frank Curzio: They hate when you blame everybody, you blame Russia and all this and the media. The truth is she did not work as hard as Donald Trump. The facts support that. You could see how much he was campaigning. You can’t paint 130 spots in the couple of weeks leading up. And he was in areas that people thought he was crazy and he ended up winning. And she was campaigning in about 50% less of those places. She really thought that she was going to win, but that’s okay. But I think if she ever came out and said, listen, I didn’t work hard enough. I need to work harder and here’s how I’m going to beat him. I would think that that would be a huge positive for her instead of coming out with the same nonsense. If it wasn’t for Russia, I would have won.
Frank Curzio: I got the popular vote. America loves comeback stories. We love when you get knocked down and you get up and you keep fighting and fighting and fighting. What we hate is sore losers. You blame everybody. You got to blame yourself. You have to blame yourself in this situation. And I wonder if she would use that strategy. Because if she doesn’t, I think that it’s just going to be another name thrown in the ring. And it is interesting if you think she’s going to come in, she is coming in late in this cycle here, but it looks like the Democrats are not really happy with who’s running right now. And that’s why I think a Bloomberg threw his hat in the ring, right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. Bloomberg or a Hillary, I don’t think the market is going to, because like you said most of the party is going after their base, and everybody’s trying to outdo the other one, whether it be entitlement programs or spending or any kind of deal there. And I think if and when Hillary does announce, I think it’ll be a shorter race between her and Bloomberg. I really don’t think Bloomberg has, if Donald Trump has taught us anything, and Bill Clinton was great at this with being a charismatic guy. I know a few handful of people that have met him or know first persons that have met him. And they just said who cares about politics? You would like the guy if you met him. And I think Trump has shown that you have to be able to connect. His rallies are hilarious, even if you don’t agree or like the guy, he draws big crowds, he connects with his audience.
Daniel Creech: Bloomberg’s going to definitely have to have to improve that. He’s pretty boring. I’ve seen some press conferences and stuff he does. But with him and Hillary both, they’re not so far to the left that if one of them did win, Wall Street would look at that and be like, all right, we know what we’re getting here. These are career politicians in a sense. Bloomberg’s got a business background. He knows what he’s doing. I don’t think it would be a drastic change. They would come out and say they’re reversing everything Trump has done, but I don’t think that in reality that would happen. And so from a market perspective I don’t think that there would be a big, that’s not a reason to be really nervous from a stock market perspective.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. Interesting. Everybody has opinions on this. And you could send to email@example.com. What Dan and I will talk about is how to play this from a stock perspective. And that’s the most important thing because that’s what you should care about the most is your portfolios. And right now they should be doing pretty well, not just with our newsletters, but the overall market is trading their all time highs. And you’re right, it looks like it’s going to continue that because we have easy monetary policy. We know the current administration their gauge of, Trump’s gauge of the economy is ESP 500, right? That’s it.
Frank Curzio: If ESP 500 doing good, everybody’s doing good. And so his focus is going to be to drive that as much as he can go into an election year because that’s going to be very good for him. But it is going to be interesting to see if Hillary throws a hat in the ring. And you did share some stocks there too and infrastructure, which I really liked. I guess we’ll end with this because you are in Vegas right now. And I want to say how important is that your boots on the ground research, but the boots on the ground is a little different because you’re there for what reason, which I think is really cool. Anyway, this is going to enjoy.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, it’s so cool. So every year the national final rodeo are here in Las Vegas. And a good friend of mine from Montana made it, he’s a bulldog and it’s steer wrestling and bulldogging where they dive off the horse and tackles here. And he made it here. He’s one of the 15 guys. And so they do I think 10 nights every night, 10 nights in a row. And yeah, so I drove over from Phoenix and I watched him last night, he got fourth. And then hopefully he does a well and wins it tonight. But yeah, it’s exciting so it’s great stuff here.
Frank Curzio: And the purses are huge, right? I don’t know anything about this. I see it on TV sometimes, but you were saying he finished first in one time and they accumulated all that money over 10 days but we talk about pretty big money here, right?
Daniel Creech: Oh hell yeah. It blew me away. Like I said, it’s 10 nights in a row and you get one shot at it. I believe they pay the top six in his field and two or three nights ago he won his round and first place gets $26,000. That ain’t bad for 3.7 seconds of work.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, that’s true. These guys get thrown but that must be exciting. It reminds me of Daytona 500. I am not a fan of racing, and I haven’t gotten there yet, even though it’s close and I will, but everyone says you just go. When you go it’s different. I’m sure if you go to that thing, it’s got to be exciting, it’s got to be really cool right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, it’s fantastic. The energy is amazing. One of the coolest things about rodeo, I’ve been to a handful of rodeos over the years just to watch my friend Bridger. But the announcers are just awesome. You talk about engagement and keeping you entertained. The announcers are great, the atmosphere is wonderful. It’s nonstop. Rodeos, they do not mess around. There is no intermission or halftimes or anything like that in other sports. You go from one event to another and it’s right at you, it’s awesome. It’s a great thing. And of course being in Vegas, whatever you’re in town for, they’re great at making you feel good. This town is cowboys and cowgirls right now and I’m the only one with Nike cowboy boots so I stick out pretty easily.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. Enjoy yourself because Daniel is single so yeah, behave yourself over there, right buddy.
Daniel Creech: Oh yeah.
Frank Curzio: All right. Well Dan thanks for coming on. I always get emails when you come on. People love the backstory. They get to hear about me, and I know that when you’re on here, you never told me what I want to hear and you know that I have never hired anyone like that. So I always love hearing your opinion. I love the fact that how far you’ve come since you started, you’re probably going to start your own newsletter pretty soon. Not probably but you will. No, I’m just happy to see it. I know they followed you along the journey as well which is really cool and you going to be inspiration for everybody, all the analysts we hire going forward. So yeah, thanks so much for joining us. And of course I’ll probably touch base with you an hour from now just to go over everything that’s going on with the portfolios and stuff like that. But thanks so much for coming on by.
Daniel Creech: Absolutely. Thank you.
Frank Curzio: It was great stuff from Daniel, and I tell Daniel this all the time and I tell everyone who works for me, I could pay anyone to kiss my ass and to just not offer opinion or agree with me and be a yes man, that’s not what this company is about. For me, I always thought it was important for especially the younger generation to share their ideas. Why is that important? Well, maybe most of them might not be that great, but they look at things from a different perspective and that’s how you disrupt markets. You’re not going to disrupt them when you’re in the same industry for such a long time and you’re focused on the same things and you see another company doing this and, hey, that looks like a good growth initiative. It may be a price point for a newsletter.
Frank Curzio: Because certain price points don’t work if it’s three, $400, if you test it, people might pay more than that. I know usually people pay more than that or they want less than that. So it’s not really a good pricing point which has been tested. But maybe that’s a great pricing point. Maybe people want that pricing point. So just that’s an example. But just for me, I always want my employees to be outspoken. I want to hear their ideas. I want to encourage that. I love having Daniel on. I talk about, “Hey, talk about this or that.” But he’s just come such a long way. He’s done a fantastic job. I’m really proud of him. And he’s just dedicated. He loves the markets, he’s all over just reading constantly, always reading research reports, asking questions. You could tell he’s passionate about it.
Frank Curzio: This isn’t just a job. Those are the people I like to hire because they’re going to work the hardest, they want to learn the most and hopefully that comes out in the interview and hopefully yeah, we’ll check up on those two situations to see how he does, those two stocks that he offered in the infrastructure areas. So if you have any questions about that segment, Daniel anything, give me a shout, firstname.lastname@example.org. And we say it, podcasts about you, not about me so be sure if you have any questions, comments, send an email email@example.com. Let’s get to my educational segment because it’s a good one. Every year around this time I talk about how important it is to put in the work in fighting new ideas since there’s tons of major conferences in early and mid January where it’s a period where people just get back to work and you’re like, all right, this is cool, whatever where you’re going to see lots of ideas, you’re going to see me busting my ass.
Frank Curzio: Alerts everywhere, giving you full details of every single trend at the Consumer Electronics Show. What companies are good, what companies are bad, what trends you need to focus on. Yeah, the CS from the fifth to the 10th. And if you’re not familiar with the CS, definitely attend it. It’s the biggest conference I want to say in the world. 180,000 people are expected to attend, over 4,000 companies presenting. All these technology company, almost every major one that you could think of, and all small ones, little ones they’re going to present and showcase their ideas and their products that they’re going to launch through 2020. So you get a firsthand look at this and it’s an awesome conference, especially for me because of the podcast. I get a media badge and a research badge and these people want exposure.
Frank Curzio: So when I see good ideas is I could say, “Hey, I like to interview you.” We’ll bring a film crew down now, which is cool, which is going to be filling a lot of these interviews and you’re going to see lots of stuff on Facebook, a lot stuff on Twitter but it’s really, really cool. They do a lot of work, a lot of preparation to make sure, because there’s so many companies and 80% of the conference is BS. It’s fun but I’m talking about from an investment perspective. You had the JP Morgan healthcare conference which is huge early January. And this is where some of the biggest names in the industry present the latest data on the signature drugs for the world. That’s from the 13th to the 16th. ASCO Mecca site of clinical oncology. 9th and 10th they have a conference focused on breast cancer, and then in mid-February, there’s another conference and this is a big one, which is called the 2020 ASCO SITC clinical immuno oncology symposium.
Frank Curzio: They should think of a better name. That’s the name of it. So basically it’s immunotherapy companies. If you’re not familiar, you should be if you listen to the podcast. If you read my newsletters industry I covered, I want to say very, very early stages because the great contexts I have in biotech. This is a new way to treat cancer. One of the first times I know in 130 years where we had the traditional methods of radiation and chemo. This is training your immune system through gene editing or T-cell manipulation to basically keep fighting the cancer where it gives up and the cancer spreads. But there’s drugs that go into the system and get hundreds of different applications for this where it encourages and tells your immune system to keep fighting.
Frank Curzio: And the results have been unbelievable. And you’re seeing young kids that have had cancer and say that, “Hey, you probably have six months to live.” That are alive five years later and cancer free. So a lot of important data gets released where you’ll see companies in biotech move up or down. Not even 50%, sometimes they go up, they triple in a day or they could lose 70, 80% of the value. For me, I like to look at a lot of names going into these conferences to see the data. Maybe I’ll buy it if it’s negative and I think that the stock gets nailed and this data is still good and it’s going to come back to the market. Or if they report good data, the stock may go up 15, 20% and that’s just a start where I think it could double or triple from there.
Frank Curzio: So I’m very prepared for all these conferences. I have good contacts that go to these conferences that give me the update because I give them updates to say yes all the time. But you also have the Vancouver resource investment conference. I’ll be speaking at this event. It’s mid-January where tons of great companies are going to be presenting and this is a year when this is an important conference. I’ve really been focusing on the mining sector in the past year and a half. I spoke at some of these conferences but not really. I have a few recommendations in my newsletter, but it’s just been such a shitty industry and everything else was working and had a favor. However, resources is the one sector that got smoked in 2019. And we just recently saw a lot of tax loss selling in December and these names as investors are using those losses to offset gains they made in just about every other sector of the market.
Frank Curzio: So I pushed these names down to levels that are ridiculous right now, and now we’re seeing high profile institutions, even including Goldman Sachs, that are optimistic on gold next year. It’s going to present a great opportunity because these stocks are dirt cheap, but you have to find the right names. You have to find which ones are fully funded, which has the best projects, the best management teams. Again, a lot of preparation goes into finding the best ideas for my newsletter. You look at the Needham Annual Growth Conference, some great small and mid cap names presented this conference and this is on January 15th. So let’s bring this all together because I just don’t want to name conferences and people are like, okay, you can find this on briefing.com, there’s different conference sites where you could find a lot of these things. But let’s bring it together.
Frank Curzio: I’m going to show you exactly what this means and why I’m spending so much time. Let’s take a company like iRobot for example. So iRobot’s a stock I told you to avoid last year because when I went to the CES basically the past two years, robotic vacuums that I’ve seen, just like when I was talking about the 360 cameras for GoPro, they were much better, they were much cheaper, they did more things, and I knew that they were going to get hit pretty hard because a lot of these companies were coming online and starting to sell these vacuums in America. Now iRobot was trading at $130 a share in April now it’s at 45. So I hope you listen to me again a couple of my losers, and also a couple of the winners. I was one of the ones where hopefully you listened.
Frank Curzio: So iRobot is presenting at the Needham Conference. I think holiday sales were very strong for the company. You probably saw ads like crazy for the new Roomba, it was everywhere. Every show, if you’re watching football, you just see it every place. You spent a lot of money, it’s going to result more sales. So I think the company’s going to report decent earnings. Even if reports in line earnings, the stock’s probably going to get a nice pop, at least a 15% pop higher if I had to guess, since over 60% of the flow is still a short. After this move higher, again, this is what I’m predicting. Maybe it doesn’t move higher. Maybe they had a terrible holiday season. I think they did have a good holiday season. It’s probably the one company I’ve seen market a product one that anybody else even more than Apple’s iPhone, anything.
Frank Curzio: I’ve just seen Roomba every place I look. After that move higher it’s going to to be a good opportunity short again because I am on the list at CS what companies are emailing me personally to say because they have a whole platform that you register. They know I’ve been there for a long time. They know I’m media and I actually clicked the box that says yes you could have these companies send things to me and they want to set up interviews and explain their products to me, which is really cool. And one company that’s very interesting, it’s called Trifo. So their new robot vacuum is called Lucy. Lucy is going to debut at the CES. This is probably the sixth or seventh of January. It has night vision, which is a first. It’s lets you use the vacuum at night. Its cameras are super advanced where they see down a one inch off the floor where almost every other robot vacuum sees three or four inches off the floor.
Frank Curzio: And their price point is much, much lower than the room, especially the new iRobot vacuum. So when I see things like this, I want to see how iRobot is addressing this competitive issue because it’s been kicking their ass and I haven’t seen it where they have patents and I think their filing lawsuits against people, whatever, but apparently they don’t have the right patents in place where the technology could easily be duplicated and that’s what’s happening. And you’re seeing a lot of international companies create the same thing. I told you this, that I saw this robot vacuum thing where it’s not the vacuum but it climbs windows and cleans the windows and washes the windows. So you don’t need window washers hanging 30 stories down in New York city anymore. You can just throw a couple of these things up there. It was amazing.
Frank Curzio: It does everything by itself, sticks to and cleans the whole window. It’s unbelievable. This is the technology and iRobot needs to adapt. And I want to see if they’re adapting just like Intel adapted, getting into high growth industries, IBM adapted, Apple adapted, getting into cloud. If they’ve seen the success with Amazon, companies adapt. I want to see if they’re adapting because if not, this stock is going to fall a lot further. That’s an example I’m giving you of things that I’m looking at going in. I’ve done the research, I’ve done the homework. I know what products into the competition. I want to see how iRobot is handling this. What are they going to do? What are their margins? Are they discounting this product too much because everyone’s selling it for cheaper, which is a better version. These are things that I want to see and then I’ll determine what I want to show it or maybe want to buy it.
Frank Curzio: So if you’re looking at the past eight years, I found some of my best ideas attending the CES. Skyworks in 2014 it was under $30 a share, it’s over 100 today. Intel 2016, I came back and said, finally, after three years of Intel being one of the worst companies at CES, they’re into every new major trend. It’s going to take a while but they’re transitioning. Stocks at 29, three years later it’s a double, close to 60 now, near 20 year high while paying you a nice three percent plus yield on the way. That dividend was high as four percent because the stock was so cheap. It’s like 2.3 or four percent now because I had a nice run up. Amazon 2017 I know everyone’s like, Oh Amazon’s a great company but it was the three years prior to 2017 when, or is it the two years when I launched Alexa, right? Virtual assistant device, you had Google home and you had the Apple device and all three of them were displayed at different areas.
Frank Curzio: So they will launch their products and say, “Hey, it works for all three of these systems.” 2017 there was only one system. It was Alexa. That was it. I was like, Holy cow, they became the hub for smart homes. That’s the hub, that’s going to control everything you need. Compatible with everything. Working with all these companies, Amazon is up 100% since they recommended that stock. I get it. It’s a large cap stock. You don’t need to let me tell you about it. But things that I’ve seen there may be recommended saying, “Wow, this is a game changer that I’m not hearing about because I’ve been to this conference.” You look at AeroVironment, which we talked about a few minutes ago with Daniel. A drone manufacturer in 2017, this stock was up over 200% for us and we took some profits, second half position, slept 140%. I get seeing the drones, the technology up close was amazing.
Frank Curzio: I recommend Cypress Semi in the same issue. It was under $12 a share. Why? Because when I went to all the auto places, Cypress because Broadcom merge with Avago. In order to get that deal done, they needed to sell some of the components of their business. And one of those was the auto segment and they sold it to Cypress. So Cypress became the premier chip company in the auto sector. And if you appoint a new car, it would have past two years. All that technology you’re looking at Cypress being all in on this and that is a major growth trend. That’s not something that, you could say it’s sickle because of cars, but all the new cars that are coming out, new technology, you could see, it’s amazing how many sensors they have on these things. It’s almost overloaded now.
Frank Curzio: But Cypress, we recommended a 12 and again, I’m not cherry picking stocks. I’m really talking about a lot of these names that I recommended. And Infineon announced it’s going to acquire a company last year and they closed at $24 a share which they announced so we took profits 100% gain. I found Itron pretty much the biggest player in a smart cities revolution. If you’re not familiar with smart cities, just looking at it, they’re all turning to sensors and everything, just way that he could want a plant during a certain times or water the parks and the lights dim at night, but it’s saving millions and millions and millions of dollars every year for these cities. And it makes sense. Why do you have to have your lights, street lights the brightest from two in the morning to five in the morning, six in the morning?
Frank Curzio: No one’s really walking around. So all these things and the cameras and parking and traffic and reducing traffic. That’s Itron. Itron’s about 50% for us. So last year, I’ll give you another example. If you’re a subscriber to CRA and I can give you away another one, but you’re up a lot on this, but Omron. So I played ping pong against their robot which kicked my ass at the beginning but I did come back. It was a robot but it was amazing. It was unbelievable. I filmed it, sent pictures of subscribers, really cool. But they also make one of the only FDA approved wearable blood pressure monitors, which is one doctor recommended blood pressure monitor world, and I sampled that product. It was amazing. It automatically sends data to your doctor, attract everything through their easy to use app, went through all this and there’s a six month wait to get this device just seeing the demand, but the stock is up over 40% less than a year for us.
Frank Curzio: Because I went to the conference, I saw this technology, I knew that they were launching this product well ahead of the street when not too many people were talking about it and now it’s turns out to be a monster monster product for them. Lots of names I covered there. So the goal of this is to help you guys out, pay attention to these conferences. You’ll find almost every transcript of their presentation on their website, probably a day later after the conference, and in these reports which are usually in slides and PowerPoint slides, those are the most updated numbers. This is where the companies, they’re going to talk about their growth initiatives to 2020, the strategies that they’re going to use, if they’re going to be able to buy back stock, what they’re doing, are they’re selling non core assets. This is where they give you the whole entire. Here it is.
Frank Curzio: This is what we’re doing and they can analyze and if you really believe they’re going to execute on that, chances are that stock’s going to go a lot higher and if they don’t, the stock’s going to get crushed. But you have access to this information. Everybody does. It’s just a matter of going in there and researching it because unfortunately most investors don’t look at it. They don’t care because these conferences take place right at the holiday season, and always start learning about these companies and the new technologies is when they stop blowing up and these stocks surge by 30% mid year. You know what happens? It’s on every media show. The CEO is on. You start learning but my jobs that get you in these names before that shit takes place. That’s how you make the most money. You want to be when it’s mentioned on Fast Money, when it’s mentioned on Maria Bartiromo, when it’s mentioned on these things, that’s when do you want to take some off the table. It’s usually when these stocks are running tremendously higher, especially smaller names.
Frank Curzio: And it’s nice to see them talking about a stock that you know more about that you actually selling because they driving the price up, getting more attention in it. But it’s a really good feeling getting to these ideas early as possible. This is the best way to do it. Again, it acquires some homework and I know the holiday season here is, believe me, I’m more busy than ever. But please, if you can, start looking at those conferences, there’s lists of companies at every single conference, you’d probably be familiar with some of them, but start doing your research on these names now because you’re going to see a lot of these names mentioned in my newsletters in January and February of next year. So guys, last time here, if you’re interested in learning more about Rich Suttmeier’s 2-Second Trader newsletter, which we launched today. Final information, you need the emails that we’re saying to you over the next few days. And if you’re not on a mailing list, just go to curzioresearch.com, putting your name in the subscribe now button.
Frank Curzio: It’s for free. And by being on that and ensures that you’re gonna receive the best offers for our newsletters and products at Curzio Research. So guys, that’s it for me. I say thank you for all the support, listening, really good year for our company and just how a growing and everybody’s coming together. Just really look forward to 2020. And I also want to thank you guys from the heart. Just the kind words that been said to me about my mom. She’s still in the hospital, but things are getting slightly better and better and better. It is a long process but I really appreciate those emails. They mean the world to me. I try to answer all of them, so many have come in, I’m really trying to get to them still, but I really appreciate it. And yeah, I just wanted to say it. So guys, I’ll see you in seven days. Take care.
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