Kristin Tate, columnist and author of The Liberal Invasion of Red State America, has a lot of concerns about what we could see under the Biden Administration.
Policies such as forgiving student loan debt, she says, could set a terrible precedent going forward… and one potential event could lead to a one-party system.
Listen as Kristen shares how she started reporting on government waste and mismanagement… and why she’s worried about government intervention.
Plus, she explains why she’s a fan of bitcoin and ethereum. [30:29]
Then, as bitcoin pulls back from all-time highs, Daniel and I discuss the bearish thesis making its rounds in the crypto community… break down the incredible results from Netflix and Goldman Sachs… and Daniel shares why he’s bullish on the markets. [1:05:42]
And don’t miss my opening rant on what you have to do this year if you don’t want to lose a fortune.
- Guest: Kristin Tate, author of The Liberal Invasion of Red State America [30:29]
- Educational: The bearish thesis making its rounds in the crypto community [1:05:42]
Wall Street Unplugged | 757
Why most investors will lose a fortune in 2021
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media, to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on main street.
Frank Curzio: How’s it going out there, it’s January 20th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. So, it’s inauguration day, very, very big day. Congratulations to President Joe Biden, becoming our 46th President of the United States, amazing stuff. I’m watching it on TV right now. His kids are entering the building. Picture Joe waking up this morning, though, his wife saying, “Hey, it’s a big day for you. Congratulations.” He’s like, “I got more campaigning to do.” “No, no, no, you actually won. You’re the president.” “Oh.” Just when I’m seeing them on speeches and stuff like that, I don’t know. I don’t know if he knows he’s president yet, but congratulations. And yes, I’m joking. Don’t get… You can’t joke anymore, right? On either side of the aisle… Make fun of Trump, but you can’t make fun of really, Biden, anymore. But yeah, fun both ways, right? Pretty cool. But seriously, congratulations. Listen, they kicked ass.
Frank Curzio: They won everything. And good for them. Now, I do want to talk to you about something that is serious, and something you need to pay attention to. And I don’t care what side of the aisle you’re on. And that’s a new world order. It’s something… And we talk about it a lot, again, you need to understand what’s going on right now. Because our path, right now, is that we’re headed for a revolution. I’m not talking about today and craziness, I’ll cover that later. I can’t tell you how many people emailed me, and even family members called me, and said, “Hey, should I sell out of my stocks? I’m worried the market’s going to crash this week.” I’m like, “Why would it crash this week?” “Because Biden! Because Biden!” “Biden what?” “The inauguration, everything’s going…” I’m like, “What are you watching? Are you crazy? What are you watching?”
Frank Curzio: I was like, “No, relax.” I’m not talking about it now, but there’s a fundamental change in America that’s going to have significant consequences for all of us. A world where you can’t question the status quo, where you going to be suppressed from the largest platforms that are designed to promote free speech and expression. You would say these are private platforms. Well, I don’t know, considering that Facebook… 25% of the world’s population has a Facebook account. The 20-25%, is two and a half billion people. They used to be able to say whatever they wanted, express it. Again, America’s founded on a free speech. I don’t like it. I hate it. I hate when people say things, but it’s free speech. They have that right. Our country was founded on, but you don’t have that right, right now. A world where politicians have incredible power, incredible power, enough power to make you stay home and close your business and not get paid.
Frank Curzio: While these politicians continue to get their checks and donations and actually pick and choose what businesses are allowed to stay open, like the Walmarts, the Targets, the Home Depots. They’re really concerned about COVID killing everyone in the United States. What, does it not exist in Walmart? Does it not exist in Home Depot? We do all of our shopping online, right? Not at all. Everyone has to close, but only certain business can, right? You get to pick and choose. It’s interesting. A world where so many of us are just completely content, to where we allow looting, riots, kids with masks yelling at old people crossing the street, storming nice neighborhoods by the hundreds, yelling out with megaphones that, “We are going to take everything you got.”
Frank Curzio: This happened many times. A world where you’re told to wear masks at all times, and you can’t travel during the holidays, spend time with your family, nope. You need to stay home. Although, the people making these rules are doing just the opposite. A world where you see fewer police protecting you because they’re getting their budgets across every single state. Yes, that is happening: LA, New York, other major cities. Yet, the politicians that are mandating these initiatives have more police protecting them than ever. A world where every forest fire and hurricane that destroys property on US soil is going to be blamed on climate change. A world where data doesn’t matter unless it supports the initiatives our government is pushing. A world where the harder you work, the more you achieve, and the more money you make, the more you become the enemy of the state. I can’t underestimate that point more than anything I’m saying today.
Frank Curzio: The fact that the more successful you become and work harder, the more you become the enemy of the state. A world where crime rates continue to skyrocket, and when you try to protect your home and your family, you go to jail. Not the criminals, threatening you and trespassing on your property, but you for defending your property. That’s happening. A world where largest companies are state-run businesses, Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft. We’re seeing that, promoting one agenda.
Frank Curzio: So, I know you might be listening to say, “Frank, you’re being political.” It’s not, it’s the way it is. As America moves to a more socialist society, which includes more government, more control. I mean, you want proof, do you think COVID is going away anytime soon? Do you think lockdowns are going away anytime soon? Do you think things are going to return to normal anytime soon? Even though we have 15 million doses of the COVID vaccine already administered, which is amazing. And at this rate, it’s going to take less than six months for the US to achieve herd immunity, and that’s based on people are going to be vaccinated. People who are immune, and those who got COVID already, within six months.
Frank Curzio: But none of this is going away anytime soon. I mean, you don’t think that, do you? If you do, just look at the first initiative, the very first initiative from Biden, and from this administration, to mandate all employees of the federal government to wear masks indoors, at work for the first hundred days. A lot of time now, three months. It’s kind of strange considering daily cases are down over 50% from its peak, down 82% the peak in the EU.
Frank Curzio: I know you’re probably going to look that stat up because you can’t believe it, because no one ever hears anything positive about COVID ever. You’re not allowed to hear anything positive about COVID. Even when I talk to you about COVID so much, from February when nobody knew about it, through today. And just going over the stats and that doctors have been emailing me, people want to hear, they get off. If you say anything positive about COVID, they get off at you. If you say there’s no proof that masks work, and listen, I wear a mask when I go inside, I want to protect people. But I know people who are wearing these massive masks and almost a garbage bag over their body, and they got it.
Frank Curzio: I mean, if you’re mandating in Europe, you have to wear masks. You have to wear a masks. You have to stay home, lockdowns, and it spread like wildfire, why is it spreading in California more than any other country? Not any other state. It’s spreading faster in California than anywhere in the world. And they have the most stringent lockdowns. And man, you don’t wear a mask there or in New York, you’re going to get yelled at by people. You can’t say that though. You’re not allowed to say… You got to wear a mask because I’m just telling you that it works.
Frank Curzio: But again, you don’t hear anything positive about COVID, including how more vaccines are coming. It’s not just Moderna and Pfizer. You have J&J and AstraZeneca. And those test trials are amazing. It’s not the same technology that they’re using. It was protein based or attack your… Immunotherapy, help your immune system fight this. But it’s going to result in tens of millions of more vaccines being distributed to the United States within a few months. We’re not even talking about that because you’re not allowed to. No, no, just be careful, COVID, you’re going to die. I mean, COVID was the best thing ever for politicians. It helped them gain more power. They were able to tell you what to do, stay home. You need to stay home. Don’t see your families ever, while they’re out partying with their families and going wherever.
Frank Curzio: And the one thing about power, the one thing about power, which I think we can all agree on. Once you have it, you never, ever, ever want to give it up. It’s a drug. You never want to give it up. Now, we have 75 million people who voted for Trump and, say, 80 million or so plus who voted for Biden. And I want you to think about this for a minute: Each of these groups, no matter where you’re in right now, you know what one you’re in, what I’m talking about, but no matter, which one, right?
Frank Curzio: Each of these groups believes the other is completely delusional. I want you to think about that for a minute. We’re not talking about a group of people like a cult. We’re not saying… Point at Scientology, those guys are crazy, whatever opinion you have on that. We’re talking about half… The 75 million people who think the other 75, 80 million people are complete idiots. They have no idea what they’re talking about. And instead of sitting down like adults and listening to the other side in hopes of just trying to understand each other, instead, each side mocks each other. They’re labeling each other as racist and domestic terrorists, if you’re a Biden supporter, or corrupt cheaters, where the election was stolen, if you’re a Trump supporter. That’s it, it’s one or the other, right? It’s one or the… It’s not like, “Hey, I understand why you voted for Trump. I see a couple of his policies. Yes, things…” No. It’s like, “You’re an idiot. You’re a domestic terrorist. You’re nuts. You’re crazy.”
Frank Curzio: Same thing on Biden. “You’re a cheater, how could you do that? They stole the election. You guys are nuts.” All these BS, impeachment, and Russia, and all this crap, but we’re talking about 75 million people. Rather, the other side, all completely delusional. And the media and our politicians are going to do everything in their power to make sure we remain separated and we hate each other, when we don’t. We don’t hate each other. We hang out with each other. We have difference of opinions, just like you have different opinions with your wife. You got this opinion, big deal. And we all want the same thing, right? A better country, better safety for our families, increase the generational wealth, it’s smarter, the best for this country, and freedom. I mean, people don’t realize how lucky, how God damn lucky we are ,to be living in America. I mean, you just travel. It’s the greatest. Every other country is just waiting for us to fail.
Frank Curzio: They’re waiting for this moment. They’re surprised it lasted this long. How do you last this long? It’s impossible. We’re the biggest nation on the planet, where you could yell, and be pissed off, and be in a riot, and tape everything with your iPhone 12, driving down there with your brand new car that you financed, coming in from… Your family’s wealthy. Some of these people are rioting, coming from wealthy families. You don’t realize how lucky you are. People don’t even have access to clean water. But the media wants this. They want you to hate each other. Why? Because that’s how they maintain power. That’s what makes people watch the news, when you’re angry, emotional. Nobody wants to watch a fireman save a kitten out of a tree. No, it’s not entertaining.
Frank Curzio: I want to watch riots, violence, people breaking into the Capitol building, looters destroying stores in major cities, and buildings on fire. That’s what you want to see, that’s what you’re going to talk about, and say, “Did you see this? Did you see this? Did you see this?” It results in millions and millions and millions of page views, these videos. And this may sound crazy to you. You’re like, “Frank, really, a revolution?” It’s the exact playbook we’ve seen by so many countries for centuries, including ours, including ours. The writing’s on the wall. I mean, there’s the Civil War, World War One and Two, got civil liberties, wealth gap, the rights of freedom.
Frank Curzio: If you look at the pattern, they occur after high levels of indebtness, extremely low interest rates, which limits central banks powers to stimulate the economy. Then you have large wealth gaps and political division. Again, this is great, covered by Ray Dalio, go on his LinkedIn account, unbelievable. I love how he just laid everything out. Again, not be in political here. This is followed by large wealth gaps, political divisions, which leads to increased social-political conflicts. That’s what we’re seeing now. And we have a rising world power challenging that overextended existing world power, which he states, which is right on. I mean, it’s going to happen with China. You think China’s going to pay for killing over 2 million people in the United States? I mean, we’re already going back into to the World Health Organization, who lied and said, “China’s handling this great. And this disease does not spread. You have nothing to worry about,” when they knew for a fact it spreads. It spreads rapidly.
Frank Curzio: And China was having a major problem because this wasn’t in February. Now, he came out in January, February, with this news, the WHO, praising China, “You guys handle it great.” When it was in China months before that, people were dying, and anyone who spoke out disappeared. We’re partnering with them, now. You think China’s going to pay? No, they’re not going to pay for spreading this. And how many deaths occurred during September 11? It was like 4, 5,000. I forget the number. 2 million plus deaths, still going, because of something that was created in another country, fabricated. There’s a reason why you’re not seeing tons of millions of strains. You’re seeing a new strain here, a new strain there, finally. It’s crazy. And what’s going to happen, roll back a lot of the… China’s going to be stronger than us pretty soon. But this is what happens.
Frank Curzio: It’s happened throughout history. You look at the wealth gap, and the bad news, that’s the bad news. The good news is you have time to prepare. It’s not going to happen right away, but people aren’t going to sit by idle. And you’re seeing that, right? You’re seeing that now, where people are saying, “I’m not closing my freaking business anymore, no way. You can’t keep walk… Home Depot, but across the street, and I can’t open my business? Are you out of your mind? I’m broke. I have no money. You took, how many months passed… Whatever.” Again, I don’t care if you’re a Democrat or Republican. My job is to stay ahead of Wall Street, to get you into things before they’re talking about in mainstream media, to help you increase your generational wealth, to protect your assets when I think times are terrible, which I warned you about in February, just before the market crashed.
Frank Curzio: So a lot of positions, across all the newsletters. I actually had a special Wall Street Unplugged with no guests. I said, there’s no guest that’s going to come on and give you more important information than I’m going to give you today. I said, based on my context, everything was… They closed China. All the businesses were closing China, Apple stores, Levi, all these stores closing China. I said COVID is spreading like wildfire. It’s a lot worse than everyone’s talking about. And this is… China accounts for 40% of the world’s growth and it’s closed. And this is going to come to US, and it’s going to spread like wildfire. I’m going to show you some of the emails I got from that. I put my money where my mouth is. You saw me selling out of a lot of our positions in our newsletters. I said, “Listen, this is the first time you need to worry about an imminent market crash, because it’s likely going to happen.”
Frank Curzio: And it did. I pat myself on the back. I’ve been wrong at other things that I’ve said. I talk about the things I’m wrong because you’re going to learn more, for young investors out there, you’re got to learn more from being wrong and being right. You don’t learn anything from being right. You’re wrong, and those emotions kicked in. “How did I lose money?” That’s where you learn. That’s why I cover the mistakes. I embrace them. That’s how you become great. That’s how you become the best by embracing your mistakes and getting better. Don’t run away from that. And so many people in my industry just afraid to admit they made a mistake. Just say it. It’s okay. We know you’re good at what you do. No one’s track record is a hundred percent in the market. But that’s my job, to try to protect you during times and tell you what’s ahead.
Frank Curzio: And we’re not there yet, where you have to worry. But we’re likely around 24 months away from a reckoning. As more and more of these socialist mandates kick in, and they are… I don’t care if you’re mad that I’m using that word, it’s true. And we’ve had Bernie Sanders come on and say, “Socialism is good.” And he’s part of this administration now. We’re seeing it. It’s there, guys, don’t run from it. It’s there. And it’s going to get worse. But people are not going to sit by idle like they’ve been. They’re going to say, “Listen, enough’s enough.” And again, we’re seeing that with small business all across the country, refusing to lockdown. “We’re not locking down, man. We’re taking a stand. I mean, I can’t feed my family no more. I can’t.” And not only that, the statistics are available to them.
Frank Curzio: When you have a survival rate of 99.5%, you don’t have to close down the entire world, the entire nation. You have to be careful. We know who this attacks. We know who we need to protect. We know we need to open up the schools because this doesn’t attack children. We know this; we’ve been covered it for over a year now. And those stats coming out after three months, six months, nine months; and also, the stats on how lockdowns are crushing us terms of depression, suicide rates. Amazing how Cuomo’s reversing his stance, right? I thought Trump was a complete idiot saying we need to open up because the consequences of locking down are much, much more greater than COVID.
Frank Curzio: He was deemed a murderer for saying that. “Are you kidding me? The world’s just…” Well, what are you doing? You’re killing people. Look at many people… Cuomo just came out in New York saying, “You know what? We have to open because there’s not going to be in New York if we don’t open.” Now? Now you’re saying that? The great migration… Now everyone’s leaving New York. Now you have crime rates through the roof. All businesses are closed. Everyone’s… Now you’re saying that? You didn’t see this, this writing on the wall? I mean, you could be the biggest idiot in the world and you saw this coming. You’re closing all the businesses. You have a mayor going on TV and say, “We need to have a distribution of wealth. Take all the money from people who work their asses off and give it to everybody else.” What do you think was going to happen?
Frank Curzio: Come on, are you out of your mind? You really didn’t see it. Now you reverse course? At least you did, and you’re not keeping those mandates like California, geez. It’s insane, what’s going on in California. And I have a lot of subscribers in California. I love it. It’s like China. You want to hate China, 98% of China, the people they are great people, nice people, hard workers. I mean, it’s unbelievable. The culture is amazing, but you have a government that rules the world. And you can’t speak out against it. That’s what’s terrible. It’s about the leaders.
Frank Curzio: Now, it’s not going to be difficult to make a lot of money over the next 12 to 18 months. And I’m going to show you exactly how to do that. Look, we bought Walmart, Home Depot, Target in March, sold out of Home Depot for a profit, we still have Walmart target portfolio doing great as COVID place. You’re going to keep them open. They’re going to generate a load of revenue. They’re going to grow incredibly. And that’s what happened, right? Instead of saying, “You’re crazy,” and holding up a sign and going, “Oh, you’re nuts. Why you closed all the businesses?” No, take the emotions out of it. Listen, if you’re going to keep certain businesses open, their revenue is going to skyrocket. Going to keep the world closed, then online, everything online, stay at home stocks are going to go up three, four, five, seven, thousands of percent.
Frank Curzio: We own Goldman Sachs in a portfolio, 40%. Let’s say you buy Goldman Sachs biggest, biggest beneficiary, biggest, largest beneficiary of lower rates forever, and more government spending. I’m going to cover that later. When you see more volatility and more liquidity inject in this market, Goldman Sachs is the name you want to own. That’s not a bank stock, straight 10 times forward earnings. And consensus earnings was like seven dollars and whatever cents, they earned $12. The highest estimate on the street was $8 and something, 8.30, $12. And they’re going to do it quarter, after quarter, after quarter because they thrive in this environment, and you’re going to see low interest rates forever.
Frank Curzio: Are they the evil empire? Yes. Do you hate them? Yes, but again, you could go in front of their headquarters and hold up a sign and say, “Goldman Sachs, you’re assholes, I hate you.” Or, you could buy the stock and make money. It’s cheaper today than when we bought it. And we bought it, man, I got emails that, “You’re crazy, buy bank stocks.” Everybody hated… They hated, hated bank stock. Now, everybody loves them. Again, we want to stay ahead of Wall Street. Been in Bitcoin and Ethereum for many years, right? Been telling you… Which you should own. I mean, even based our business in the Curzio Equity Owner’s Token, going public that way. If you’re a believer in this industry, which is that venture started two and a half years ago.
Frank Curzio: We became the first in the world to trade on a global exchange with a security token that’s available to non-accredited investors, and trading on a foreign exchange. I mean, there’s something to be said for that. Now, you’re going to see liquidity increase, working on that. But you own an equity stake in our business, and we just paid our third quarterly dividend in a row. Every quarter since we’ve been public, we paid a dividend, and that dividend is higher than if you’re on the S&P 500. That’s how much I believe in this. But Bitcoin and Ethereum, everyone’s in it now. Yeah, they like it now. We bought a lot of depressed, cyclical, small-cap names. You can see them throughout our Curzio Venture, which are up huge in just a few months.
Frank Curzio: And we bought these before almost anyone on Wall Street was talking about it. I mean, small-cap cyclicals have been out of favor, guys, for 10 years, more than 10 years. You’d be crazy. But we bought them right before, literally right before, a month and a half before the Russell had its greatest month in history. It was November. I mean, we bought it like in August, we were loading up, September. And you saw a gradual rise in the Russell. I said, “Listen, when you have an economic recovery, the Russell usually outperforms significantly, from the markets.” And it went up, what was it? 22, 24, 25%. I don’t know exactly, 20 something percent, in one month.
Frank Curzio: And these names were all at 50% for us, plus. And you know what? I hope you’re making money on these picks, but that’s what you have to do. Because there are going to be certain sectors and stocks that benefit from the new world order. However, many are not going to buy these names. You’re not going to position yourself to make a fortune. You know why? Because your emotions are going to take over. Especially if you’re young, in your 20s and 30s. I mean, when I was at age, my generation was that age, we didn’t talk politics ever, ever. You guys are fully engulfed, and it’s sad. You know why? Because politics makes you angry. When anyone talks about politics, they’re angry. You want proof? Look at CNN, look at MSNBC.
Frank Curzio: You won. The Democrats won. You won. Congratulations. You won everything. You kicked Republican’s ass. You won. They are more angry today. Got to destroy everything, Trump, put your hand on his neck and drown him, impeach him, even though he’s not president anymore. We need to impeach him. Trump supports domestic terrorists. 25,000 troops… Today’s inauguration, 25,000 troops, are you kidding me? And so, those troops, then said we go to war. We’re expecting… Because a few hundred people were idiots and decided to raid the Capitol Building. We didn’t think that when Antifa shut down Seattle streets for weeks, or raided Wisconsin and Minnesota, and burnt down buildings and everything, where were the troops then? Why is this political? Don’t we all want safety, no matter what side is? Do we really want looters? Do we really want people breaking into buildings?
Frank Curzio: It’s an embarrassment, what happened at the Capitol Building. But to label every single Trump supporter a domestic terrorist, and a racist, and get up there and say, “Hey, this would have been treated differently if all these people were black.” What does that have to do with anything? What does that have to do with anything? It’s crazy. But as kids, this is what you’re exposed to now. The younger generation… I mean, you should not be filled with anger, looking at politics that aren’t going to… Whatever. I mean, you should be smoking pot, getting drunk, partying, and throwing up on each other. These are the best years of your life, where you’re going to have the best memories, and you’re talking politics. What are those memories going to be, about protesting and riots like 20, 30 years from now when you get older? It’s sad.
Frank Curzio: What’s even more sad is you’re fully engulfed in a vision that politicians give a shit about you, and that your vote actually matters. That’s how you’re programmed. I mean, if you truly think that, right? The politicians care about you, ask yourself this question: How can the House pass measures to impeach our president in days, in days to pass the measure, yet it takes, excuse my language here, but I have to say it, five months to come up with a stimulus bill to help Americans? You’re forced to stay at home five months. And if you came out with it, did you see the pork in that bill? Did you see everything go into so many that had nothing to do with the stimulus? Five months, five months, people, you’re forcing them to stay home. Forcing them to stay home. You can’t open your business. If you do, we’re going to fine you. Don’t worry about if Walmart opened across the street, I don’t care. You can’t open your business, or we’re going to fine you.
Frank Curzio: And how did they get rewarded? By our government taking five months to give them a check for a couple of $100. Maybe it goes up to 1,500, whatever, really? That’s how you took care of Americans. Democrats, Republicans, both sides, losing their businesses, really? You think they care about you? They care about what they’re going to get, how much pork they could put in that bill. How much money they’re going to make for themselves before they pass the stimulus bill. Guys, they don’t give a shit about you. The quicker you know it the more money that you’re going to make. The easier it will be to make an absolute fortune, as assets are about to explode higher. And it’s not all assets. It’s some stocks, some real estate, I’d be buying real estate in Texas and Florida like crazy right now, it’s a migration second place. New Hampshire as well, Nevada, collectibles, Bitcoin.
Frank Curzio: I mean, these things are there for the taking if you keep your emotions out of it. And if you do, I promise, I promise, I will do everything I can to make you an absolute fortune and continue to stay ahead of the markets. But again, that’s not up to me, that’s up to you. You need to keep your emotions in check. Great segue for my guest. First-time guest. It’s getting bigger by the day. I mean, so many people following. Great, great, great. Her name is Kristin Tate. So, Kristin is an author and writes focused on taxation, federal spending. She breaks down all this data and government economics. Fantastic, awesome, awesome, awesome interview. She’s written three books, including one in January 20th, 2020. Not January, right? Not this month. January 2020, called, “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” Talking about that great migration.
Frank Curzio: How it’s actually going to turn red states into blue states because of this. Something that you don’t hear, which attracted me to her research, which has been on numerous networks. And it’s not just, “She was on Fox,” or say, Fox, CNN, MSNBC, talking about a data and how it’s going to impact you and why you should be concerned. Please pay close attention. Because many of the things that you’re being told or that you’re seeing are not going to have the outcomes that you think, at least based on her work, her research, her data. It’s a must-listen to interview, and let’s get to that interview right now. Kristin Tate, thanks so much for joining us on Wall Street Unplugged.
Kristin Tate: Thanks for having me, Frank. I’m excited to be on the show.
Frank Curzio: So, watching you on TV all the time, but we do have an audience where maybe a couple of people aren’t familiar with you. So, I wanted to start off with, it’s probably not going to be easiest question, but it’s going to be a cool question, I think. You spend most of your time, your career, studying politics, economics, taxes, government spending, what was your motivation? I know it was marketing and journalism, but getting into this specific area. And did it surprise you at this stage, when early on, you got in to where it is right now, with some of the things you find? Because you’re a data person, and some of the data that you report, we’re going to get to in a little while, is amazing. But how did you come to this point? What was your motivation?
Kristin Tate: So, I actually wanted to be a reporter, a hard news reporter, when I was in college. But I ended up getting an internship, working for John Stossel over at the Fox Business Network. He had just moved from ABC to Fox business, and it was his first year doing his show there. And he’s the one who got me hooked on this line of journalism. Then from there, I got really interested in reporting on taxes, government waste, and government spending, and realized just how clueless many Americans are as to how their tax dollars are being spent, particularly younger Americans, the people who are just entering the job market, or perhaps even baby boomers. So, I really wanted to shed a light on government waste, government spending, and show people exactly how their hard-earned tax dollars are being spent every day. So, that’s broadly how I got into this and what motivates me to do this work.
Frank Curzio: Are you amazed in today’s day and age that, even though you provide data, again, what you’re going to some amazing things, right? Things that you know and then the data behind it, which I found amazing when I was researching you. Do you find it amazing that no matter what kind of data and what kind of facts you present people, especially even the younger generation, that it seems they’re never going to change their mind?
Kristin Tate: Actually, I would say a lot of the younger people I speak with are changing their minds, particularly on fiscal issues. It’s a combination of presenting them with data, but also their own life experiences, right? As young people get into the workforce and get real jobs and earn enough where they’re not paying the earned income tax credit anymore, they start to get a little off like, “Hey, the government’s taking 20 to 30% of my money. Where the heck is it going?” And a lot of these young people still identify as Democrats and they’re voting for tax and spend politicians. When you really ask them about the issues, when you get into each individual issue, you find that many of them are actually more libertarian.
Kristin Tate: They’re certainly socially more to the left, but not so much when it comes to the fiscal issues. So, I really urge young people, particularly when they’re voting, don’t just vote on emotion, don’t just vote on those social issues. Because guess what? You’re not going to have any social justice in this country if our economy collapses. I mean, look at any economy throughout world history that has completely collapsed or come under communist or socialist rule, your social justice issues, those go out the window. So, I have actually seen people change their minds gradually. But again, it’s that combination of both being presented with facts, but also getting their own paychecks siphoned off into these various government coffers.
Frank Curzio: That’s great. I’m glad you’re able to change people’s minds. It just seems like if it’s always being pushed as either or one agenda, right? It seems you got to be on one side or the other, right?
Kristin Tate: Yes.
Frank Curzio: You agree with some things, and you don’t agree with other things. It’s either or in today’s world, I feel like… Let’s stay on the subject with young kids, because one of the things that impacts them is the massive student debt. Which for me, I can’t believe that the colleges, right, are not held more responsible, right? Because these guys are raising tuition by three X to five X more than the rate of inflation. Nobody wants to talk to them. They’re getting paid by the government. They keep raising, and raising, and raising. I wouldn’t want to blame everybody else. But we have something, a mandate that could come out that you know about, that’s been talked about by the current administration, saying that they might just cancel all student loan debt. For me, what example does that set? And you’ve come up with amazing studies, which surprised the hell out of me. From a political perspective, it’s probably different than what you think is going to happen, if this initiative gets done.
Kristin Tate: Right. There are so many problems with the initiative. First, I would just respond to your point and say, I actually don’t put any blame on the colleges themselves. I mean, they’re doing what any business would do, right? If you could charge a million dollars per year and people will pay that, obviously, you’re going to charge a million dollars per year.
Frank Curzio: Good point.
Kristin Tate: So, there’s a supply and demand here, and the colleges are charging what people are willing to pay. The problem here is that kids can get financing for these insane college tuition rates to get these degrees that have little to no return on investment. So, I’ll give you a great example. I went to Emerson College in Boston. It’s an art school. People go there to study film, communications, journalism. A degree there costs you almost $60,000 today, and that’s before even room and board. I would argue that’s a terrible return on investment, and I’m still paying off my loans over a decade later. But kids pay that because they can get financing from the government. The federal government funds about 80% of all student loans. They do this regardless of the individual’s credit history, the return on investment of the degree or the college tuition.
Kristin Tate: This allows colleges to just continue to hike their rates with impunity, because they know no matter what they charge these kids will get the financing. And now you have an entire generation of kids who have been sold a bill of goods by the system, and they’ve realized they have to pay this money back. They’re not making a lot of money because these degrees, again, are not leading to high paying jobs in many cases. So now, they’re demanding that all of these loans just be forgiven by federal tax dollars. Well, there so many problems with that. The biggest I can think of just off the top of my head is that, when you forgive these student loans, you’re just incentivizing the next generation to do the same thing. I mean, why shouldn’t they take out insane loans from the government? And then just, again, demand a bailout.
Kristin Tate: It’s just going to be a recurring cycle, and the colleges will just keep hiking tuition. Another problem is that the Federal Reserve has released these incredible statistics showing that the vast majority of student loan debt actually belongs to middle and upper income earners. So, what this would essentially do is act as a wealth transfer from tax payers, which include, of course, blue collar workers and minority workers who don’t make a lot of money, to middle and upper income people who went to these liberal arts colleges and studied feminist dance theory or Russian literature. It’s just so unfair, especially, I would add to, those people who either paid their debt down quickly, and now are debt-free, and have to subsidize the debt of people who have not been responsible in paying off their debt quickly.
Kristin Tate: And to the folks who wanted to go to college, but maybe made the decision they were not going to go because they couldn’t afford it. So instead, they went into a trade. That’s the responsible thing to do. Now, those people are being punished by having to subsidize the student debt of someone who maybe made a less responsible decision. So, those are just the biggest problems with it. I could keep going on this, but it’s just a bad path to go down. I suspect, though, the Biden administration will do some form of student loan bailouts.
Frank Curzio: It is interesting, and now is the data point that I wanted to get to, when you actually say, based on the Federal Reserve and their statistics, student loan, debt loans, and middle, upper income household hold at least the majority of it. So, it will largely be a wealth transfer from taxpayers, including blue collar minority workers to this proportionately middle and high income earners. Obviously, I’m quoting you there. Do you think this move is more political, or is this really about the students? Because if it’s political and you’re looking at what you uncover there, it makes me a little nervous that it wouldn’t get done, not that I want it to get done or not.
Frank Curzio: I don’t think you’re setting the right example, especially for the people who did pay their way out of that debt. It’s just a certain type of character, right, that you build doing that: an appreciation of saving and working hard, I think. Going through that process and getting out of it, and you just telling everyone, “Hey, too bad we’re going to give it away for free for everybody else.” But do you still think it gets on, when you looked at facts and say, “Well, maybe this isn’t helping out the group that we thought.” I mean, is that going to skew anything in terms of this policy, or the Biden administration doing anything, or no?
Kristin Tate: I think it gets done in some form. So, there are several ways that this could happen. They could just say, “Everyone who has federal student loans, we’re going to forgive, whatever, $10,000 worth of those loans.” Another way they could do it is they could actually target low income earners who have college debt and say, “We’re only going to pay off the debt of people who are making whatever it is.” You could say under $50,000. Now that sounds a little better initially, but the problem with that is, then you’re essentially rewarding people who chose to get expensive degrees that actually don’t lead to high paying careers, therefore incentivizing more people to do the same. So essentially, you are not paying off the student debt of people who were more likely to study STEM majors, for example. Besides is the math.
Kristin Tate: These are the majors we want more of in our society to create productive citizens. Instead, you are rewarding people who went and studied perhaps these more fluffy liberal arts majors, that really, our society does not need more of. And you’re therefore encouraging more students to go out and get these degrees in woke social justice studies because they know they will probably have their debt forgiven. So there’s complaints, regardless of how they do this, because if they do the blanket forgiveness, then you really are subsidizing high and middle income earners. If you just target the lower earners, then you’re rewarding the people who studied the majors that really are not very practical, and we don’t want to encourage more people to go into those studies.
Kristin Tate: But to answer your initial question, yes, I do think the Biden administration will get this done in some capacity, because it has been a repeated promise of his on the campaign trail. Of course, now the Democrats have unified control, so it won’t be very hard for them to do. In fact, I’ve heard that they may even try to slip something like this into a COVID relief bill. I have no idea what that has to do with COVID relief, but these COVID bills are packed with pork. So, it really wouldn’t surprise me.
Frank Curzio: We won’t go there, but I did want to transition here… And great stuff, Kristin Tate. Let’s get into the states, this great migration we’re seeing from places like New York, California. I think we’re seeing it now, but… I mean, this is something you’ve been talking about since 2019 ’18. It’s been happening for a while. It’s just… COVID is really accelerating it, where it’s getting on everyone’s radar. But I just feel like the statistics you provide are not really showing what’s going on. Look, I just feel like sometimes, as someone who started their own business, and has two businesses, you’re almost getting penalized for being successful. It’s not like we work 15 hours. I know you probably worked 15 hours a day, whatever hours a day. But when I look at the raising of the taxes, where it’s going to be already over 60%, right?
Frank Curzio: I think it’s going to be up to 70% because they’re bringing in no revenue, right? I mean, you see very little revenue coming in, but you’re almost encouraging these people who support and provide a lot of jobs and making over $400,000 to actually move out of California and New York basically saying, “Listen, we’re going to tax the hell out of you.” I imagine give away over 60%, about 70% of everything you earn. But is this a surprise to you, that we’re seeing this? Because it shouldn’t be a surprise on the table, I guess there certain surprises, because some of the things that you’ve come up with is… Seeing this migration is actually going to be good from the blue states into the red states, or from the red states into the blue states. But it’s actually going to be good for Democrats going forward, right? Explain that, because that’s hard to believe.
Kristin Tate: That’s right. So my most recent book is called, “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” It followed this exact trend, the blue state to red state migration. I argued in that book that Republicans focus far too often on immigration along the Southern border. While that’s certainly an important topic, I think what’s really going to change the political map right under our nose is this domestic migration that had been largely ignored. Now, my book came out in January of 2020, and I had no idea when it was released these trends were just about to explode on an unprecedented level because of the COVID pandemic. So prior to this last year, we were already seeing these trends happening, people leaving big cities and blue states, particularly because of high crime, failing public schools, just exorbitant cost of living.
Kristin Tate: But then when COVID hit, we saw this really double down. Because all of a sudden, white collar workers were largely given the option to work remotely. People were given a chance to reevaluate where they were living. People were losing their jobs and saying, “Hey, my income is lower now. Why am I paying $3,000 a month for this rat infested studio in Manhattan when I could move to Texas and buy a house and my mortgage will be less?” So COVID has really, really spiked these changes. In fact, it’s not just people, as you mentioned it’s businesses. We’re seeing Silicon Valley essentially pick up and move out of California. HP is moving to Texas, right outside of Houston. Elon Musk is relocating much of his operations down to Texas. Oracle is moving to Texas. The list goes on and on. It’s kind of a double-edged sword here, right? Because on one hand this trend is very vindicating to GOP policy because people are flocking to the places with lower taxes, better quality of life, more fiscal responsibility.
Kristin Tate: On the other hand, this is going to create some real political challenges for Republicans, because you’re essentially taking all of these blue state voters and moving them to red states. Many of these folks unfortunately just continue to vote in favor of Democrats. Down ballot in the November elections, we certainly didn’t see that blue wave that Democrats were hoping for, but Democrats they came close to closing the gap with Republicans in a lot of places that are considered traditionally red states. Particularly if you look at Texas, the biggest suburban areas there really lean Democrat this time. Florida saw some similar trends, Arizona, Tennessee. So this is something the GOP is going to have to really grapple with over the next few years. If they lose Texas, if they lose Florida, it’s all over. The Republicans will never win another national election.
Frank Curzio: Credit to you, by the way. Because your book did come out pre-COVID.
Kristin Tate: Thank you.
Frank Curzio: You were talking about how Texas could become a swing state, right? I think people thought you were crazy, but you saw the Democrats campaign heavily, right? Leading up to the election in Texas, right? One of the biggest. So credit to you, because now I think it’s easier to see now COVID is going on, but I want to run this by you, and this is from “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” So New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philly, Washington, Portland, Oakland, Chicago. Despite billions of dollars being dulled out annually, every one of these cities has dire mismanagement issues, right? So the things that stand out, massive increases in pension and payrolls, right? They all have that common public payrolls. Many of the worst run cities have seated more control of academic policy to teachers unions.
Frank Curzio: Nearly every one of these cities have surging crime rates, right, pre-COVID. And when I talk about COVID, I talk about pre-COVID, because that’s when you wrote your book, and it’s now much worse since then. Los Angeles cut its police department budget by 150 million, while the murder rate is up 20%. Washington, Philly, in the same boat, with the highest murder rates in the country. Poverty rates highest in the history of New York. Homelessness rate in Los Angeles is up 12%. This is in 2019, 2018, right? Again, pre-COVID. Simple question here: When we see this going on, and this isn’t like a trend one, two, three., this has been going on for a very long time, why is it that the citizens, the hardworking citizens in these cities and in these areas, where they get all these promises showing how it’s supposed to be… And things are getting worse… Why do they continue to vote the same way? Why do they continue to vote for the same policies?
Kristin Tate: I think it’s because people don’t think about politics when they make moves. So, they are simply moving to these other states for the job opportunities and the lower cost of living. But they’re not necessarily connecting those dots. Why is it that all the jobs are in places like Texas, Tennessee, Florida? Why is it that the cost of living is lower? They don’t really think that through in many cases. So, I think that’s a big part of the problem. I tell native red staters all the time, people who have lived in these red states, you’ve got to reach out to your new neighbors and explain to them why your home state is flourishing, so that these people understand that if they continue voting for Democrats, they’re going to ruin their new homes with high taxes. They’ll just recreate the situation they just fled.
Kristin Tate: It reminds me of my home state, New Hampshire, where I grew up. It used to be a very libertarian state. In fact, it was actually more red than it was purple, very independent people up there. They have that live free or die motto, just an awesome place. But over the last two decades, what we’ve seen is these Massachusetts residents moving from Boston and the surrounding area and just moving north to New Hampshire so that they don’t have to pay income tax, sales tax. They can have a better quality of life. Well guess what? In the last two decades, as those people move north, they completely changed the political calculus on the ground in New Hampshire. Now, the entire state legislature in New Hampshire is largely Democrat. We still have a Republican governor up there, but mostly everyone else in the state House is Democrat.
Kristin Tate: I would not be surprised if in the next decade, they institute an income or sales tax. Everything is changing. They voted for Biden up there. I think they went for Hillary Clinton in 2016. So, that’s a great example of a state that has already seen the transformation happen. Some of these other states, like Texas, are going in the same direction. I tell people all the time, kids my age don’t understand the fact, or don’t remember, that California used to be a very red state, very conservative. Today, Texas’s demographics are almost identical to what California’s were in the early 1990s, right before that state flipped Democrat and went for Democrats in every single presidential election since.
Kristin Tate: So, it is not impossible for Texas to become a swing state. And Republicans can laugh at that all they want, but if they lose Texas, if they don’t pay attention to what’s going on, they will be sorry, because they will never win another White House.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, those are interesting trends, from someone who’s really engulfed in all of this and really deep in it. By the way, I don’t want to sound like this is a Democrat, Republican thing where, there’s Republican areas too. If they’re not doing what you want them to do over decades, they’ve been in office, but then change. Try the other side, see what happens. Like for me, you always want to make yourself better. You always want to hold people accountable.
Frank Curzio: Speaking of accountability, I live in Florida. So, we handle the coronavirus differently. We got criticized a lot to the point where we’re irresponsible and no one’s wearing masks, which is not true. We all wear masks and… Especially indoors, and a lot of places almost mandate it. Not like it’s a law or anything, but yeah, they won’t let you shop in the Walmart’s and Home Depots, unless you’re wearing a mask here.
Frank Curzio: Yet DeSantis, who’s the governor, got criticized tremendously, tremendously, about how he was handling this. Now, you see that there is other states like New York, and that’s a place I lived in for over 30 years. I’m a new Yorker at heart. I love it. But just to see how he was writing a book, saying how great they handled it, and they have more deaths than by far of any other state. But not only that, I think there’s only 10 countries that have more deaths than New York.
Frank Curzio: But now, he’s basically switching too and saying, we need to open because New York City could die if we don’t open. Which is kind of the case, I think, how Florida is looking at it. When you see this about face, does it discourage you? Because the data was showing a lot of things going on, and not just COVID and the death rate of COVID. I won’t go crazy into statistics because I studied that to death. But I’m just surprised how it’s after the election, it’s something that one side was saying, listen, we need to open up because the impact of staying closed could be much more dire.
Frank Curzio: Now, we’re seeing an about-face. It just feels like it’s political. Why does this have to be political? I understand the politics, and you need to be political with some things, but these are people’s lives. These are people’s jobs. They want to work. Keeping them home… Now you’re saying, oh, well, New York’s going to do really bad unless we open up. Wasn’t that the case four or five months ago? We still have the same data on COVID in terms of infected rates. The death of affected is going down as a percentage. I’m just surprised at that. Does that annoy you that someone that’s in politics and in a political field where… Why is it politics when we’re talking about people’s lives?
Kristin Tate: Well, perhaps I’m cynical, but I do think it was a totally political move. Just the way that Cuomo in particular handled the COVID lockdowns, the whole time was political. My cynical self believes that a lot of these Democrats wanted a recession over the last year because Trump had a phenomenal economy going before the pandemic hit. The economy was so hot that there were more jobs than people to fill them. We saw record low unemployment for Black Americans, Hispanic Americans.
Kristin Tate: The Democrats could not have dreamed of something more politically convenient than the pandemic. It shut down private business, got more people dependent on the federal government. They’re basically being given a green light to try out universal basic income now by sending monthly checks to everyone from the Fed. They are, in many ways, replacing the private sector with top-down control. I think in many ways, it was absolutely political.
Kristin Tate: What’s really terrifying about that is that we see how little our leaders care about the livelihoods of hardworking Americans. For them, it is all about political gain. It’s all about the optics, and they couldn’t care less if business owners are struggling. They couldn’t care less if their employees are struggling to put food on the table for their families. That’s really what this whole pandemic has exposed. Now, you have the mask as a sort of political symbol.
Kristin Tate: Joe Biden says that, “Oh, we’re all going to wear masks for the first 100 days.” Well, I’m not against mask wearing, but I am skeptical of these kinds of top-down announcements. Given that when the pandemic hit, we were told, okay, 15 days to slow the spread, everyone just stay home for 15 days. Well then, it turned into, well, now we all need you to stay home until the curve is flattened.
Kristin Tate: Well, the curve was flattened. Then it was, oh, we just need you to stay home now until we have a vaccine. Well, now we have vaccines being put into the arms of Americans. In many parts of the country, lockdown orders are actually getting stricter. I think this is all about power for a lot of people in charge. That is really sad. But in some ways, it’s a good thing that it’s been exposed.
Frank Curzio: It has been exposed. Are you nervous about the direction of the country, where we’re going, in terms of capitalism, less government? I’m a believer in people. I love people. I think for me, I love living in America. I’ve traveled all over the world for my business, boots-on-the-ground data analysts. I want to see things in person. People don’t realize how great you have it in America, how great, as you complain about everything on your iPhone 12 and Twitter.
Frank Curzio: While you’re driving around in your brand new car that you financed, everyone’s complaining and pissed off… Are you nervous about the direction of this country? Because for me, when I see young kids, I want them to work hard. I want them to believe that. It should be that way, that if you work hard and you really, really, you’re just totally engulfed in something where it means everything to you, you will be successful. You will.
Frank Curzio: I just feel like it might be taking a step back from that, or maybe I’m just a little nervous. But I hope that part of it doesn’t change no matter who’s in office. But it just seems more government, more helping people out, more stimulus. As you said before, and so many people have said, they don’t want a stimulus check. They want to work, and we’re not letting them work. How do you feel personally about this? Because I’m a little worried, not incredibly worried. But I really truly hope that it doesn’t change, especially for entrepreneurship and people working harder and a lot of these kids out there that really want to achieve their goals.
Kristin Tate: I’m very concerned about it and not to make this over political, but the Democrats do tend to be the party that is more likely to want to expand federal control, and they now have unified control. We’re in a pandemic, which is a perfect excuse for them to utilize that power and just expand the size of the federal government and its scope. What you have now, is this generation of people entering the workforce, who basically have been taught in public schools that the government exists to provide.
Kristin Tate: That the government exists to make sure that everyone is comfortable. That is not the purpose of the federal government. The purpose of the federal government is to protect your rights. So many people just don’t believe that anymore. They believe that the government needs to give everyone what they need to live a comfortable life, and that is a mindset that so many people have nowadays. Meanwhile, yes, entrepreneurs are being hurt terribly.
Kristin Tate: My stepmother owns some small restaurants up in the Boston area, and she can’t get a lot of her employees to come back to work. Because frankly, with these bonuses, the unemployment bonuses being given out by the federal government due to COVID, when you combine that with state unemployment, you actually make significantly more in many states from staying at home than you do at work, if you’re a minimum wage worker.
Kristin Tate: So, why would somebody want to go work a 15-hour day at my stepmother’s restaurant when they could make more sitting on the couch watching Honey Boo Boo or whatever. It’s such a perverse incentive, and entrepreneurs are struggling. My stepmom can’t even find enough people to keep her restaurant going. Meanwhile, they’re dealing with increased regulation costs because of COVID. She never had an outdoor seating area before, but now because of COVID, she had to invest a bunch of money to create outdoor seating.
Kristin Tate: Then once she created the outdoor seating, they changed the guidelines for the outdoor seating, so she had to change that again. It’s just never-ending. I do think if the federal government just stepped back a little bit, and some of these state governments as well, we would see people acting responsibly. People always act in their best interest, and we could see the economy really get chugging along again. People think that they want to stay home, but I think by and large, most people feel more pride and they feel happier in life when they have a purpose, when we have a job to go to. We really need to get back to that. But I am not optimistic about the next few years to answer your initial question.
Frank Curzio: I could tell you’re not optimistic, because on your Twitter account and your feed, go ahead, feel free to give it. We’re going to talk about your book in a second and how to get it. But what your Twitter feed is?
Kristin Tate: Kristin B Tate, on Twitter.
Frank Curzio: Okay. So, we follow you on Twitter. One of the things that you do tweet about a lot is Bitcoin, surprising. So one, you invest your Bitcoin, you just follow it, or is that something you look at and say, hey, the fact that this thing is going up is really telling. For me, it’s going higher, and I been collecting for a long time is, you don’t trust the government, more spending is coming. It’s an alternative. You don’t believe in the dollar. You don’t believe in fiat. I mean, this shows nervousness. But I noticed that you talk about Bitcoin a lot. I’m just curious. Are you an investor? Or is it just, hey, this is kind of like the writing on the wall here?
Kristin Tate: Oh yeah. I’ve been invested in Bitcoin for a while. I’m also really interested in Ethereum and some of the other kind of smaller esoteric currencies as well. I always tell people don’t put anything into crypto that you are not prepared to lose, just because it’s very vulnerable. It’s kind of a speculative asset. I also don’t see Bitcoin at this time functioning as an alternative currency. It kind of works as a way to just store your wealth and diversify and protect against inflation.
Kristin Tate: Inflation is something I’m extremely concerned about. We were coming into this unified democratic control and people think, oh, well, they’re paying for all these stimulus bills with tax dollars. Not really. They’re paying for some of it with tax dollars, but a lot of this is being funded from borrowing, but also money printing. Every time they print money, they’re making us all poorer because they are devaluing the US dollar.
Kristin Tate: I’m very concerned that we could see not only inflation, but stagflation. Like, the battle days of the 1970s under Jimmy Carter. So, gold and silver are, of course, great ways to protect against that. But those kind of creep up slowly. Whereas crypto, you can see these huge returns really quickly. It’s an exciting way to diversify and kind of give yourself a hedge against potential inflation. But again, it’s a risky thing to invest in and people really need to do their homework before putting money into Bitcoin.
Kristin Tate: But we could see Bitcoin go up to 100,000 or beyond this year, depending on how many mom and pop investors get into the game. Now that PayPal lets you buy a Bitcoin, Visa, Robinhood, it’s so easy. A couple of years ago, no one knew how to buy this stuff. Now, everyone can get in on the game. I suspect it’ll keep going up. But we don’t know where the top is. So, be careful for all those people out there who want to try.
Frank Curzio: I love the economics coming out, and even the investment. Because what we do is, we do talk about politics, and then you’re going to get people on both sides who get pissed off, or some people happy, whatever. But the bottom line for people like you, for me, for everyone out there, is the biggest thing is your families: Your livelihood, and how do you make money off of it? How do you invest? Just going into that, you’re engulfed in politics and going into economics and insane.
Frank Curzio: Bitcoin, I was surprised. I thought it was like, hey, I’ll learn Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all kinds of crypto. That’s awesome that people are educating themselves on this. It’s fantastic. It is a good investment. It’s a sign of the times. Now, the name of your book, “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” If someone wants to learn more about you, learn more about the fantastic book. Again, this was written pre-COVID. That’s why I love it, because just seeing it today, it’s more powerful. Yeah, it is amazing how much of those trends accelerated that you warned everybody about. But if someone wants to learn more about you and how they can get the book, how could they do that?
Kristin Tate: My website is kristinbtate.com, and Kristin is spelled with two I’s. K-R-I-S-T-I-N B Tate.com. I also write a weekly column in The Hill newspaper. My book, prior to “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America” is called, “How Do I Tax Thee?” Also, a timely book if you’re curious about all of the ways that you’re taxed beyond the income tax. You might be surprised. Yeah, my two books, “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America,” and “How Do I Tax Thee.” You can learn more about both of those books on my website, and also find links to my writing at The Hill newspaper, as well. You can find me on social media, obviously. My Twitter handle is the same as my website, @KristinBTate.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. Great, great stuff. Kristin, I know how busy you are. I really appreciate you taking the time to come on the podcast, and hopefully, join us again soon.
Kristin Tate: Thank you so much, Frank. It’s been an honor to join you.
Frank Curzio: Great stuff from Kristin. I just love that she’s a person that really does boots-on-the-ground, does her homework, looks at all the data, which supports her opinion. A lot of times, you’re not going to make friends when you disagree on something. Even with me, fracking and traveling to the Williston Basin and Permian and Eagle Ford, every county. Thinking like, hey, when I went there, based on what I’m researching, what people are saying, and this source I was listening to, I thought there was going to be dead animals anywhere, everywhere, and it’s going to be crazy.
Frank Curzio: You realize that fracking doesn’t cause water contamination. It can’t. Water is what? Five, 700 feet. You look at fracking, it takes place 3000, 9,000, 12,000 feet below the surface. Unless those chemicals, after they frackle upwards through rock, which doesn’t happen. Someone could have those pools of water and just dump them in a lake, that’s different. But just the whole… Not everyone just talking about how bad fracking is.
Frank Curzio: By going there, doing the boots-on-the-ground, doing the research, came back, recommended some of these stocks, and we did very, very well in them. Always challenge that guys, that’s important. Always go out there. Even challenge everything I’m saying. Do the research on it. Look at different sites. Don’t just listen to one source. Go out there. That’s why I love boots-on-the-ground, talking to these people directly.
Frank Curzio: Even if everyone’s into a major trade or something and you say, hey, you know what? This doesn’t make sense. There’s a lot of things going on, and based on your research, you want to short that. Again, you’re not going to make a lot of friends because you’re going against the crowd, but that’s when you make the most money. When everybody believes one thing and you’re able to say, you know what, that’s not true, and that’s why I’m buying this stock or even on the shorts.
Frank Curzio: That’s how you make the most money. So, I love Kristin on, definitely pick up a book, “The Liberal Invasion of Red State America.” Trusts me, you’ll love it. I just like the fact that she was talking about all this stuff before COVID and just to see how those trends accelerated, and everyone’s talking about it today, that’s really cool. A lot of people just write books for the times and say, hey, you know what?
Frank Curzio: You put Trump in it, whether you hate him or you like him, because of something that’s going on right now. She was definitely ahead of the curve, and I love the fact she does her own research. Really, really cool. Thanks so much, Kristin, for coming on. She’s just getting a huge following. I know it’s going to continue. But again, this podcast is not about me. It’s about you. Let me know what you thought of the interview, email@example.com. Now, let’s bring in my buddy, Daniel Creech, senior analyst at Curzio Research. We’re going to talk about a lot of things: Earning season, Bitcoin, Fed spending, and the inauguration. Dan, what’s going on, buddy?
Daniel Creech: Frank, what’s happening? Happy Wednesday.
Frank Curzio: I guess we could start there. The inauguration is today. Yeah, congratulations Democrats. They won everything. We’re seeing it today, the inauguration. But I have to tell you, at least 15 to 20 people, when it comes to emails and people emailing me and my family members, some of my family members came out to me and said, “I’m thinking of selling all my stocks and my 401k. Because I think the market’s going to crash this week.”
Frank Curzio: This was like the past four or five days. I’m like, “Why is the market going to crash?” “Because of Biden.” I’m like, “Why?” “His inauguration.” I didn’t know if it was Tuesday, Wednesday. They’re like, “It’s going to be a massive event.” I’m looking at them going, “When you hear this? Why are you so nervous for?” Yeah, it’s funny, because depending on what channel you’re watching, you think there’s going to be a mass riot and everyone’s going to get shot. Are you kidding me? I was like, come on. It’s getting crazy out there. It should be an event that you celebrate, not something that you worry about, I would think.
Daniel Creech: Getting crazy. Where you been? It’s been crazy. It’s not getting crazy; getting crazier.
Frank Curzio: Crazy. You talk about people were about, Trump not leaving the White House, and they’re going to have the national guard. There’s actually a military general, one of the top generals that manage Afghanistan, that said this, said that he’s worried that this could be like a September 11 event, or comparing these people to domestic terrorists. Warning people-
Daniel Creech: All depends on what side you’re on. If you protest under certain banners, you’re fine. If you protest under the other ones, you’re a terrorist. This is just foreshadowing what’s going to happen. It’s just going to continue to get more divided, more separation, more protected. People are just going to continue not to be able to do anything or go anywhere or disagree. It’s beyond ridiculous. But think of how easy it is to get lost down rabbit trails of saying… Which really not that hard to believe, how crazy things are. Take for instance, you get 25,000 troops in DC, right?
Frank Curzio: Mm-hmm.
Daniel Creech: They were vetting them on what political party they were with. Did you know that?
Frank Curzio: No, I didn’t know that.
Daniel Creech: I thought it was a joke. I actually looked it up, because somebody mentioned it to me, and I was like, “Come on, man. You got to draw the line somewhere.” Sure as hell, they were vetting the national troops to see what party they were-
Frank Curzio: What did they think? Did they think that Trump would take over-
Daniel Creech: That you were not going to protect or kill Biden or whatever.
Frank Curzio: Is that real?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, no shit.
Frank Curzio: Trump’s not leaving. There’s got to be…
Daniel Creech: It’s so goofy.
Frank Curzio: I’m not blaming people and saying like it’s dumb to think like that. But it depends on what you’re watching and what you’re hearing. Because I could tell you… Look at the Democrats, you won, congratulations. Now it’s like, let me put our foot on your throat and label us… You’re supposed to be bringing the country together right now, not labeling everyone who voted for Trump as domestic terrorists and racists.
Daniel Creech: No, I got to interrupt you. That’s not how the game is played. That’s not what you do. That’s something else you do. You’re talking about winning in general, something. That is not how politics is. You eliminate your opponents, and that’s what they’re better at doing than Republicans are. That’s why a lot of people were getting upset.
Frank Curzio: But, I think it is different this time a little bit. Because I didn’t see this craziness when Obama was elected. Maybe it came out later on. But not to the point that you’re trying to impeach a president who’s not president anymore. How about focusing on COVID and saving lives in the initiatives. Enough with Trump.
Daniel Creech: Answer your own question there. What’s really driving behind that? What are they so scared of in four years?
Frank Curzio: Oh, they’re scared he’s going to run again.
Daniel Creech: Exactly.
Frank Curzio: Because they just-
Daniel Creech: They got to outlaw it and all that. I get it. That’s the game they’re in.
Frank Curzio: A lot of people believe how crazy that is. But that’s the only reason why you would try to impeach a president. Once you impeach him, he’s not going to be able to-
Daniel Creech: Yeah, the guy is gone. Hey, what time is he getting to Florida?
Frank Curzio: He’s in Florida now.
Daniel Creech: You don’t want to be on the roads. There’s probably going to be traffic jams.
Frank Curzio: He’s in Florida now. It’ll be whatever Saint Andrews-
Daniel Creech: I went to the beach this morning. I saw the helicopter. I was like, I wonder if this is scouting out the place.
Frank Curzio: He left and everything’s okay, guys.
Daniel Creech: Okay, I just got a coffee, chilling.
Frank Curzio: We’re doing this at around 12. It’s a cool event, everything’s cool. We’re not seeing anyone getting shot and running off the lawn. It’s just getting crazy there, but relax, relax. Be careful what you watch out there, okay. Remember, they want to program you to hate, hate, hate on both sides, guys, on both sides. It’s just really crazy, Daniel. To me, to see the division and to see how it’s not stopping… It’s getting worse after the election is over.
Frank Curzio: That’s what scares the hell out of me. Again, that was with my opening and saying, “Look, take your emotions out of it, and it’s going to be pretty easy to make money.” But man, there’s going to be some major changes here, and you’ve got to be aware of that. I don’t care what side you’re on. You got to be aware of those changes that are coming. Because there’s sectors are going to benefit, sectors that don’t, stocks that benefit, stocks that don’t, places to put your money.
Frank Curzio: Assets are going to explode higher. But at the end of the day, you’re not going to have half of the nation, 75 million on each side. You can only do so much and take away so much of what they’re doing and suppress them so much before they start rising up. You’re seeing that. You’re seeing that with the lockdowns. I see it every day and read more stories of people just posting stuff on YouTube and saying, this is a joke, and I’m not shutting down, and I don’t care anymore. It’s hard to watch the store across the street allowed to stay open when you’re not, and you’re selling the same exact thing as them.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. That’s the kind of uprising or protest or whatever you want to call it. It’s pathetic that you’re thinking that you’re going against the rule of law to go to work. That’s freaking absolutely ridiculous to even go there. But that’s the kind of stuff we need to see more. I am glad to see that. Because that should not even be an option on the table.
Daniel Creech: Now, getting back to what you said about people selling their stocks. The inauguration, I don’t think it’s a big deal at all. I got some of those phone calls and text messages from friends and family and just, if you’re at a bar and they ask you what you do. Then they want to ask you something. It’s like, oh hell, boy, did I mess up. I need to go back and say, I sell insurance. Nobody wants to talk to you.
Frank Curzio: Don’t ever give anyone that asks a stock tip.
Daniel Creech: I know, it’s crazy.
Frank Curzio: Never do it. Because if you give it to them and you make money, they’re not going to give anything to you. And if it goes down, they’re going to call you every day and be like, what should I do with it?
Daniel Creech: I had a guy who, he wanted to bullshit, and we were having a good conversation. Older guy, smart guy, you could tell. I mentioned a stock to him, and I saw him like two or three weeks later, and he says, “Hey, I bought X, Y, Z.” I said, “Oh boy, here we go.” He goes, “Nope, just interesting story, and I’m glad you told me.” He bought me a drink just for mentioning it. I thought, well, hell, that’s a first. I’ve got to find a new bar. No, kidding.
Daniel Creech: But when the Senate flipped, and that’s when I got a lot of the nervousness. I understand that because, hey, you got one party coming in, they’re going to make a lot of changes. They promised to roll back this, roll back that. That will have an effect on investments. But the crazy thing, and all my friends and family who know me well, again, like we joked about last week, I’m very conservative. I don’t even hide that. I think it’s smart for capitalism.
Daniel Creech: But what makes me nervous is that I am very bullish right now with a completely blue government, because, for no other reason, than the money that is getting printed and injected in the economy. Like you said, assets are going to rise higher. We have to figure out how to navigate that. But a knee-jerk reaction of selling everything right now is crazy. I want to talk about some levels with you. I don’t know where you want to start, but tenure, everything.
Frank Curzio: Even to that point, let’s go there with the Fed and what they’re doing. What you need to understand and how much it is going into the market. But if you wonder why stocks are going higher, it’s not fundamental based. You can’t put fundamentals on Tesla, Disney, any of these stocks, of where they are compared to the earnings that they’re generating, even some of the stay-at-home stocks. But if you wonder why the market’s coming up… And this is from Tony Dwyer, from Canaccord.
Frank Curzio: He’s great, and just showing inflation remains well below the Fed target for now. Fed policy drives historic excess liquidity. But they have a chart here showing the money supply growth. Again, we like to do this guys, this is all on our Curzio Research YouTube page. We could show charts and show you how we’re doing our research and stuff. We videotape everything, and videotape our interviews now, and just have state-of-the-art equipment. So definitely guys, if you can, go there.
Frank Curzio: Subscribe to the Curzio Research YouTube page. Believe me, we’re getting a lot more people watching, migrating to there and watching it because it’s more exciting. But I’m bringing up a chart here. Money Spokeo keeps rising and keeps reaching historically unique heights. When you see this chart, it’s incredible, because it goes back to 1940s. When you see this massive line going up over the past two years, you could say, okay, this is the reason why, Dan, this is the reason why that the market is going higher. And it’s going to continue. Yellen came on TV yesterday, and what she say? She was like, “We need to do more. 10 trillion is not enough.”
Daniel Creech: Yeah, got to act big, exactly. The scary thing for me is, we always want to look at what we’re missing. You have all these things out there. Valuations don’t matter. You could argue we’re in a bubble. Man, there’s so many swear words out there that you can’t say. Now, bubble is a bad word, because who cares if it’s in a bubble? I get it. Things rise, things fall. I don’t want to come across as a know-it-all. If I am, email me and tell me to calm down. But you could argue the national debt. You could argue gold bugs. You could argue Bitcoin as a currency. You can argue everything’s in a bubble for the last 20 years, okay. But things can go on a lot longer.
Daniel Creech: So, you know the environment, you know what’s coming down the pike to a certain extent, what are your other options? So, if you pull all your money out of your 401(k), there’s no way you can live on bond interest or CD interest or anything like that. So, that’s why I’m passionate about trying to help people and build wealth and all that kind of stuff, because that is a scary situation. If you’re 75 years old right now, and you don’t want to have another 30% correction, because you’re worried about living through that, that’s a tough spot to be in, and it’s pulled forward. So, you have to understand and say, hey, that’s why we’re trying to be solid people to listen to and help all those, but don’t need your reaction and panic sell out just because of the policies or the politics know what they’re going to affect.
Frank Curzio: Now, definitely true. And just what we’re seeing in terms of low interest rates forever, spending forever, let these people go back to work already. And we that it’s stone cold, we know the people we have to protect, let them go back. They want to work and just they don’t want to get that… You give them a cheque, give them free money. Some people like “I’ll take the free money, I don’t want to work.” In America, we’re working economy. I mean you’re looking at, for the past four years, five years, six years, I mean, you just saw that unemployment rate go low and low and low until we had full employment, basically when you’re looking at 3% to whatever.
Frank Curzio: They want to work, man. They really do. And just to see these conditions and how they’re going to last, and they’re going to keep going and going and going. I mean, what is going to happen? And we talk about a lot, you’re going to see inflation this time around. We didn’t see it, surprised a lot of people because a lot of that money was given to… In top was given to the banks, right? To stabilize-
Daniel Creech: Yeah but kept out of circulation.
Frank Curzio: Didn’t really make its way too much. I mean, look, one proof of that, it started out at 700 and whatever billion, and it turned out to be like 480 in total. You’re giving cheques directly to people! To everyone! It’s not even like “hey, did you close your business or not? Here’s a cheque. Here you go.” They’re not even saving the money where, okay, hey, these guys had their business closed. Definitely give them a cheque. No, I mean, they’re providing loans to businesses who are actually not doing that bad, their revenue is better, and yes, you have to compare the year and stuff like that. But, the first available loans were given to everybody. That’s why Harvard and Shake Shack and all these companies applied. Which is awesome.
Daniel Creech: Yeah exactly, the Lakers.
Frank Curzio: Everyone was like,” Yeah I’ll take it, free money.” Why not? But even now, not everybody needs that cheque, and you’re giving it to everybody, even people who are working. And I mean, it’s going to lead to massive inflation. That’s going to have its consequences. I mean, that’s when this thing really gets serious, I think.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, and there’s a timeline there. So, I don’t know exactly what that is obviously, but things are going to get better, if nothing else, from a headline perspective. So, you’re going to see a lot better news, a lot more slant on vaccine rollouts and everything. And Jim Cramer set this up today on CNBC. Did you see how the market could explode if Biden fixes the vaccine rollout? So, everything is Trump’s fault. The vaccine is Trump’s fault. The vaccine rollout is Trump’s fault. But now that he’s gone, things are going to get a lot better on, if nothing else in reality, then on the headline news. And that is going to be a big deal. And you always… I know you probably mentioned in your intro about cities that are just now all of a sudden opening up, nothing’s changed, but everything’s going to get better from a PR standpoint. And that affects people, and that’s going to push it higher.
Frank Curzio: I love that when he was like, “I don’t want the vaccine, it’s been pushed through too fast.” And then Trump was like, “Alright, well, we’re not going to give it to you then. No, wait, we’re not getting enough of the vaccine.”
Daniel Creech: Yeah, like I said, that’s part of the arena those guys are in. It’s sad but-
Frank Curzio: It’s sad when you talk about lives here, right? That’s why it’s not a joking matter, and it’s about lives. Everybody should be on the same page. It should… Like your COVID response, shouldn’t be a different based on, if your state is red or blue, it should be the same going. It’s sad that it’s like that. But just watching DeSantis and Florida, Daniel, and seeing this guy get destroyed for keeping the economy open and seeing how good these businesses are doing and not closing. And our cases are not going as high as anyone else, all the other states, while California, New York, was still skyrocketing and had everything closed. Now, everyone’s doing what he did when they ripped him, ripped this guy apart. Look, we want what’s best for the country, right? Just open up, man, and again, trust us. Trust the people that will be responsible enough to wear masks or make sure that we protect those people who are over 65, where this disease really targets, which is what 87, 80% of the deaths come from that age group.
Frank Curzio: So, we need to be careful. It’s very serious, COVID, but we know the statistics now and let’s get smarter. And that vaccine rollout is going to be amazing no matter who’s in office because you have J&J coming out with a new vaccine, or you’re going to have AstraZeneca come out with new vaccine, and you already have 15 million doses administered. And that was what in a month’s time, since it got approved, what’s going to happen in six months, nine months? You’re looking at easily herd immunity, when you’re taking the people who already got it, like myself, who doesn’t need the vaccine, and people who are immune to it. So, in nine months we should have that, but they don’t want that.
Frank Curzio: COVID gives politicians and the media, a reason to really be… To gain even more power to actually tell you what to do. And I just hope that this… listen, we all hope that Biden does the right thing, get this rollout, that people get the vaccine, especially older people, and this freaking disease goes away already. Because people are really getting sick of it, man. They really are, Dan.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, and the big re-evaluation for me. And like I said, I don’t want to be too short-term and get caught up in the mud. But you have at least another quarter, at least through the end of March or into the second quarter. Where, when do you hit that mentality of, alright, there’s a lot of vaccines that have been rolled out, people know or know, like I mentioned last couple of weeks ago. People either know directly somebody or two people away from somebody that has it. And then what’s people’s mindset then? Are they going to continue to go out and feel good? Is there going to be or feel more safe? Is there going to be more headlines about, hey, so and so got the vaccine and then caught the virus. So, that’ll be the big re-evaluation for me and where yields are at that time and what are new, what yelling at the secretary of treasury and the Fed will do with capital rates and all that. So, I hate to say it, but I think it’s a drift higher in and out of headlines until then.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and I want to move on here because one of the things I’ve been doing amazingly well because of more spending and deterioration of dollar and stuff like that. And Fiat currencies is Bitcoin, but there’s an interesting article surfacing. And I get emailed probably about 20 times now from lots of people. It’s the Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine. And it has a lot to do with Tether and how… I think it’s like 70% of Bitcoin is bought somehow through Tether. And a lot of it is done on Binance exchanges that aren’t in the US, and there’s a reason why Coinbase doesn’t accept Tether and they have their own stable coin. And you’re seeing like a three or 4% decline in Bitcoin today. I wouldn’t be surprised. The fact that this is making its rounds through the Crypto atmosphere and everything.
Frank Curzio: The fact that, I’m looking at Crypto and we’re talking about these altcoins or utility tokens. I mean probably 5, 600 that I’ve analyzed, more than 90% are complete bullshit and are corrupt. You don’t know the numbers; you don’t know what’s going on. There’s a reason why they’re not in the US; they don’t give you an equity stake. They’re only trading on these exchanges where you have to buy Bitcoin through Coinbase, transfer it to Binance, and then transfer and be able to buy something else on another exchange. This way, nobody is able to keep track of it, but it is a detailed article, guys. And it’s definitely worth a read because it challenges how… Because no one thinks Bitcoin will ever decline. And this person, Crypto anonymous, right.
Frank Curzio: It’s a very good article, to the point where they touch up at a lot of points with Tether. And after you read it, it makes you think of it. I don’t know if that’s going to result in Bitcoin coming down, but for me, as someone who’s bullish on Bitcoin, owns it and made a lot of money of it so far, if I sold out today, I want to see the bearish case. I want to know what could derail this at all times, right? That’s what I want to do. A lot of people don’t want. They just want to listen to the bulls and high five each other, but this Bitcoin thing, I know you read it too, right?
Daniel Creech: I didn’t read the whole thing, but it is interesting. I’ve seen several different things over the course of the last year or two, pop up about Tether, and I’ve gone down those rabbit trails a little bit. My brain doesn’t work that way. I’m not in the details or in the weeds on that. So, I don’t want to make claims about something I don’t know, but it is interesting. I’ll keep reading about it. And I wish… I’ll try to make a note and talk about it next week, if I’m on with Bitcoin, because there’s a podcast coming out, and I saw it through one of the many channels I checked, and they were talking about… It’s funny because you sent me that this morning, and yesterday, I saw the link or something that caught my eye about… Hey, honest question.
Daniel Creech: This Tether thing is confusing. I don’t want to be a bull or bear, I want common sense. And they were going to do a podcast. And I made a note to check that again. I thought, wow, that’s awesome. So, it’s kind of funny. I wonder if they’re going mention the article you’re talking about with Tether because it’s a great detailed article, and it makes a hell of a lot of sense. What the end result will be, I don’t know, but it’s pulling back right now. So now’s the time to take a victory lap, if you’re in.
Frank Curzio: Listen, it was good enough article for me to mention, because I don’t ever want to just give you BS stuff. But I mean, it’s a well-thought out, detailed, not just some guy shortening it one page or not, it’s definitely worth a read to see what’s going on. But, guys, remember, when those all coins, a lot of them, I mean, you don’t know how much cash they have. A lot of these guys kept their money in Ethereum, when they raised it in 2017, which crashed from 12 hundreds to a hundred something. And yeah, these guys basically had no money. I know because some of these guys were reaching out to me saying, “Hey, if you want to fund us again. I’m like, you just raised like $12 million.” What happened to it?
Frank Curzio: It’s six months later, how do you go through $12 million, without even having your business up and running? Our business, this is what we’re going to do, and a lot of them haven’t done any of that yet. I mean, those tokens are only as valuable as the utility function of how you can use that token on that site to buy. And they have no utility tokens. So, there’s no value on equity stake. Someone comes over and buys these things for billions of dollars or buys a company for billions of dollars. You don’t make that money, it’s not like you own a stock and it gets taken over, and you get that… No, you don’t own equity stake. You get zero. So, it’s just interesting that story, definitely guys, it takes called the Bit Short, you could find it inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine. Again, I’m not promoting anything. I just like when I see a good read, it was a good read, something that just challenges the status quo, which I always like to hear.
Frank Curzio: So, I want to talk about earnings because we had two companies report. I mean, Goldman Sachs, everybody hates that company. It’s kind of like Tom Brady, everybody hates him, but you kind of want to be him.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, I love him. I mean, I’m kind of that weirdo that… They’re the perfect example for me in looking at the world and saying, “Hey, here’s how it is. You can choose whether to make money on it or not. Not that it was an absolute sure thing, but the odds were so much in our favor. And for CRA members, I do a lot of the updates. Goldman Sachs going forward, the updates going to be, they blew it out of the park. I’m tired of talking about it. We’re making a lot of money. Good job buying it because they just put up silly numbers, and it should continue. And I think it will. And they do it in the line of paying billions in fines and nobody gets in trouble. And it’s just a revolving door. I mean, they are what I tell you, Frank, I read it was off a zero hedge, but I’m not sure if the Tyler, what’s his name?
Frank Curzio: Shit. Tyler Durden, yeah, fight club.
Daniel Creech: I’m not sure if he coined it or if it was a reference to someone else, but he was like, Goldman Sachs is the best privately backed hedge fund by the taxpayers. And there’s a little bit of truth in every good joke. I mean, that’s what they are.
Frank Curzio: I mean, they take advantage of the system, right? I mean, it’s, first of all, when you work at the SEC, work governed organizations. As you move up and you become great, you’re going to max out your salary at 150, maybe, if you’re lucky. And then, these people know everyone have… And then when they do that Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, they hire these people and they have massive connections. They know how much the fines are going to be. They know what’s going… It is such an inside group there, and you could hate it and hold up a sign. But you look at a company stringing of 10 times forward earnings, they’re earnings were supposed to come in, on the consensus estimate was $7 and change, they came in 12 did the same thing last quarter.
Frank Curzio: I said, they’re going to continue to blow out the numbers. It’s a company that benefits from more liquidity, more volatility. Those are conditions that are either going to get accelerated next year. And this, Goldman, has to stop trading as a bank at 10 times forward earnings, 1.2 times book, because they’re growing much faster on a revenue basis. 25% annually expected to grow, and 35% in earnings, which is much faster than all the FAANG stocks, which traded 30 times forward earnings. So, maybe it doesn’t go to 30 times earnings, but I could see it go into… I mean, the market multiples, 21 times, I mean, you look at Goldman, you see a $300 and you’re like, what? And what 40% cheaper now.
Daniel Creech: And the massive run-up, I mean, heck it’s up from 200 to 300, basically since November.
Frank Curzio: Just to put this in perspective, Goldman could double to 600 and still be trading at a discount to the overall market. That’s how cheap it is right now. And you’re not looking at, hey, they sold a business or they just, I mean, these they’re engulfed every one of their… I mean, let me bring this up really quick. Because I show this in the video. And again, I like doing this for these YouTube crew who’s watching this. I missed from Credit Suisse. I mean, you look at these numbers 12, 1,200.8 cents. Your consensus at 714, but equity trading, investment banking, asset management, all these well ahead of forecast.
Frank Curzio: I mean, they’re right in the middle of this growth. And then when you look at the massive growth year of 8.7, generating revenue of this just last quarter, but for just 8.7 to a 10.8, you’re looking at these earnings are incredible, right? 35% earnings growth, 10 times forward earnings they’re trading at, you got to be kidding me with everything… Just, they’re in the perfect situation. They put themselves in a perfect situation. They’re making money. I know you hate them, but you’re also getting a 1.6% yield by owning them.
Frank Curzio: I just think it’s… And then we have Netflix, right? Damn? I mean, Netflix came out, and I would like to say they blow up the numbers, but they didn’t. But yet the stock is up 14% on news that, hey, we’re probably not going to issue any more debt to pay for our new content, which is their business model. And people love that. And plus, they added a lot more subscribers. I mean, I know you looked at that quarter to Netflix, right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah. And I’m an easy middle of the road guy on Netflix. I’ve never… I wish I would have bought and made a bunch of money. I didn’t. So, I missed that, but I’m not a big TV guy. I’m not a big streaming guy. I’m not a big… What do you call him, series, and all that kind of stuff? But the thing that stuck out to me was, it’s amazing how they’re going to be cashflow positive to fund themselves. And they’re going to basically balance or keep 10 to 15 billion in gross debt and just basically keep refinancing and all that. That is an amazing… That is a huge light bulb for me because, hey, it’s a cool story. In my opinion, how you have a ton of haters, how you took on massive debt. The only reason you could do that is given the environment of low interest rates and the ability for people to need money. Some to put money somewhere to buy this debt. So could Netflix have grown into Netflix if interest rates were 7%, Frank? Maybe, maybe not.
Frank Curzio: No.
Daniel Creech: Right?
Frank Curzio: No.
Daniel Creech: Because you’re not going to get that kind of money to be able to return that blah.
Frank Curzio: Absolutely not.
Daniel Creech: So, it’s an amazing picture of where we are in the environment where interest rates are, but then, it’s an amazing success story in execution because now you’ve used that environment, and now, you can balance this debt, and your cashflow is positive. That is also, to me, when you tell me crazy stories about how much it costs to make one of these series and all this stuff. Frank’s a series guy. He knows… He’s a good in Netflix guy.
Frank Curzio: Well, I mean, when I look at Netflix, I see Disney going up on Netflix news. There’s a lot of things that you need to understand with Netflix, which I love. Why Netflix could double from here, and double for that could be a thousand dollars stock, I think, because one is, if you’re being priced, which Disney is being priced on, the amount of subscribers you add… And it doesn’t matter what you pay for them, Netflix is going to a thousand dollars. Okay? Because that’s the business now, because when businesses take over companies, it’s not so much taken over, hey, I like this business model, they’re buying people. I mean, you look at Google and Fitbit, they’re buying their file. They’re buying people. They’re buying emails, right? This way, they have access to that, to throw them in their system, track them, predict a future on them, and sell them advertisers. That’s the world we live in.
Frank Curzio: And that’s why Disney is getting that premium, right? Which again, as you know, I’ve been wrong on, but am not sure of it, but listen, valuation doesn’t matter. But if you look at Disney, guys, the average… So, whatever they have, 85 million, whatever they have, their average revenue per user, which should be a big deal, right? That’s how much each subscriber is. It’s like $4.50 cents, right? And it’s going down, you know why it’s going down? Because they said for Verizon, you get our service for free. So, they’re just signing up, subscribing, and saying, “I don’t give it away for free.” And your Netflix last quarter missed those. They only added, whatever, 2 million subscribers. I was lower than estimates and whatever. But when I look at Disney, and I just signed up for Verizon, I got that free Disney plus. And because I have the unlimited plan, a family plan. They said, no, it’s not for a year.
Frank Curzio: They extended it. They said, no, you got it forever. I said, what do you mean this, forever? You never have to pay for it forever. I was… think about that for a minute. You never have to pay. Imagine you want a service that you didn’t have to pay for it forever. What are they going to? So, what they say, right? If you don’t know what the service, what the image or the PR… So, what are they going to do with my name, man, it’s going to be broadcast to the whole entire world on everything that I do, right? So, you know that credit to Disney, but Disney at 450 average, 70%. The thing I love about Netflix is they edit 8 million, right. And they actually increased their margins increased. I wrote, they’re getting $13, and some these to 21, 25 cents.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, more than double for Disney.
Frank Curzio: It’s not that you’re just adding subscribers. You’re adding subscribers that are paying, that you’re able to charge more, where we don’t know if Disney has pricing power yet. They said they’re going to raise prices. But when you give something away for free, listen, most of the time people don’t pay for it. They don’t want to pay for it. You get back 10, 15% of your folic, and that’s our business, right? You give away things for free, show him what you’re about. And then you, hopefully, they’ll subscribe it to our newsletters and stuff, but it’s going to be interesting to see how this is. And just to put things in perspective here too, at Disney, when you’re looking at that debt number. Disney is loaded with debt, and you’re looking at the COVID danger, right? So, we look at COVID, and you say companies are getting back to normal.
Frank Curzio: The markets surpass, right. We’re at all-time highs, you’ve seen a lot of companies generate more revenue and more earnings. Disney’s earnings are not going to get back to pre-COVID levels for another three, four years, because that’s how much they’re impacted by everything.
Daniel Creech: Oh, was their park in California opened yet?
Frank Curzio: Yeah, I believe they just opened.
Daniel Creech: Finally. Ok.
Frank Curzio: I think so… It might not be open. I don’t know. I know they were just… In here, I think it’s still 25, maybe 35% here.
Daniel Creech: Sorry. Anyway, they’re not getting back to earnings pre-COVID for another three years.
Frank Curzio: So, we have all kinds of systems. We can bring this stuff up really quick, but let me show you, guys. So, when you look at our earnings for 2020, $2.02 cents, but even if you go back like to 1878, to what this company generated pre-COVID, I mean, these guys are really not going to get back to those earnings of… It was a $5.77 cents in 2019, you’re looking at 2023, maybe 2023, before they get back to that. And then if you look at their balance sheet, too, and how much debt they have, I mean, you’ve got to spend money on content. You look at Netflix, but in $17 billion, I knew that that’s why people subscribe to Netflix. Netflix is great because of new content. You don’t go on there and watch a lot of old stuff.
Frank Curzio: Some people do what most don’t. And that costs a fortune to lock up some of these actors and actresses and get that content. And they don’t have the money that Netflix is going to spend, but it is going to be interesting. And again, everything negative, let’s say about Disney, taking a grain of salt because every time, I feel like, wow, they’re really falling behind, the stock goes higher because nobody cares. And I never want to be one of those people, Daniel, where like the Tesla bears where even pre-split, right? It was 1500. So, whatever. And then they’re like, get a 200, 300, 400, 500 terrible forecast. And now, it’s one of the largest companies in the world, where you accept it and that’s it. I’m not going to tell you to short Disney. I lost money, shorting Disney, a lot of money.
Daniel Creech: Some stocks just get your name, and your timing’s a little off. And it’s just aggravating. But this, as Hyman Roth said, in, what was it, The Godfather 2, this is the profession we’ve chosen. So, it’s going to be crazy.
Frank Curzio: It is a profession. Well, we talk about earnings because look, it is earnings season, guys. And you’ll get lots of updates from us and stuff like that, which is really cool.
Daniel Creech: Just to have fun with you and interrupt, Disney has a lot of fun because when I have my stocks, WWE, the first stock I recommended was bad for our subscribers. I still haven’t gotten over that. But Frank… And I wanted to get a round up and or give one another going, all I got to do is mention Disney to him and he gets going.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. And it was funny with WWE. Because I said, yeah, it’s the first one that you recommended. And I said, it’s the best lesson you could have because now you’re going to really dig into your… That’s why when you lose money and you make your mistakes, you learn the most. Because if you had like 10 great pitch, you’re going to be going out, thinking you’re the guy, I’m great, you’ve got to listen to me, this is easy. I don’t want anybody… And when you get slapped in the face, which is why I love this job so much, because it’s so competitive, and you can never… It’s like golf. If you shoot at 59, yet, you’ve got to shoot 58.
Daniel Creech: You’ve got to shoot 58.
Frank Curzio: Yes, 58. Right?
Daniel Creech: I remember that because I was traveling, and Frank called me, or I called Frank, and he called me back or whatever. And WWE just come out with earnings, dropped like 15, 20%, right at the open. Frank’s like, “Hey man, how are you doing?” I said, “How the hell do you think I’m doing?” Pretty good stocks? I just started, guys, what do you mean? How am I doing?
Frank Curzio: Yeah. And I love that reaction. It shows that you care, and look, you… Chubb was one of your recommendations and is defensive. It’s like at 30%.
Daniel Creech: We are doing better on that one. That’s good.
Frank Curzio: A lot better. But guys, just really quick. I just want to share my screen here to show you this is that… So, earnings season’s kicking in Baker Hughes, just a lot of banks, a lot of more small-cap banks are going to report. IBM, Intel, I mean, this is when… This is going to be on Thursday. Again, you could see all this and bring this up in the calendars that we use. Yeah, so a lot of earnings coming up. We’re about 15% in, maybe a little bit less than that so far. So, you get lots of updates for us, for our portfolio, and everything. Really cool.
Frank Curzio: Daniel handles a lot of those updates, and we’re going to start doing video updates too, Dan. So, I’ll get you on there.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, that would be good.
Frank Curzio: Which should be pretty fun. But listen, lots of things going on. And Dan, I just want to say, man, hey look, thanks for talking. And a lot of positive reviews, also a few negatives, right? People like conservative… I don’t like you, but it’s just… I like talking to these topics with him, breaking them down, because a lot of this stuff we talk in the office, and I just love to have this translated and just show how much we’re really into this, right? I mean, this is what our lives… We love doing this. We love figuring out stocks, trying to pick great investments for you. But yeah, thanks so much for coming on. I really appreciate it.
Daniel Creech: I’ll look forward to it. I love it more than any subscriber can imagine. Like I said, I had coffee on the beach this morning, and then now I’m here doing this. So, life is good. And we’ll see you next week, hopefully.
Frank Curzio: Cool, man, cool. So, all right, guys. So, that’s it for us. Be sure to check out our Curzio Research YouTube page. I brought up a lot of sites that we used, again, trying to make that really cool, because I love watching podcasts on video, and so many people do. And that’s why you’re seeing so many of these things go to that video format and podcasts and people talking on the microphone, and you’re watching them. And now that our guests are alive, and again, go to the Curzio Research YouTube page, and feel free to subscribe, like it. But we put a lot of effort, a lot of money, into this, and it’s working. And a lot of people like that, well, listening to you, that’s what you wanted. And for everything else, earnings season, expect a lot more updates from us.
Frank Curzio: It’s going to get a little crazy, but I am very serious about what I talked about earlier. So, just… You want to prepare yourself, you want to take the emotions out of it. It’s not going to be that difficult, not saying that arrogantly to make money in terms of the sectors and the stocks that are going to benefit. But you have to keep the emotions out of it, which is very hard with everything going on, and a lot of channels that you’re watching. So hopefully you do, because it’s about you. It’s about your finances. It’s about your kids having a better life than you had. That’s our focus. It shouldn’t be politics and stuff like that. I’ll handle that, and I’ll make sure that I’m going to position you guys right to make as much money as possible the next few years. So, that’s it for me. Love you guys. And as always, I’ll see you in seven days. Take care.
Announcer: The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this podcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility. Wall Street Unplugged, produced by the choose yourself podcast network. The leader in podcasts produced to help you choose yourself.
COVID-19… mass federal spending… and a Blue Wave…
We’re living in crazy, volatile times… and uncertainty is everywhere.
Which is why, if you’re not following this strategy with at least some of your money right now, you’re setting yourself up for potential disaster.