With the coronavirus spreading globally, it’s important to know how to take care of your health.
Chad Neilsen, director of accreditation and infection prevention at UF Health Jacksonville, joins me on today’s podcast to discuss exactly that—including symptoms… vaccines… isolation… prevention… and the steps to be taken following a positive diagnosis [23:54].
Meanwhile, in response to the coronavirus crisis, the Federal Reserve made an emergency interest rate cut this week. But the stock market isn’t out of the woods yet. I share the three market factors you should still be worried about… and how to position your portfolio right now [38:11].
- Coronavirus: Use common sense when listening to the news… [00:35]
- Guest: Chad Neilsen, director of accreditation and infection prevention at UF Health Jacksonville [23:54]
- How to position your portfolio [38:11]
Wall Street Unplugged | 711
Three things to worry about following the Fed’s emergency rate cut
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street.
Frank Curzio: How’s it going out there? It’s March 4th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where I break down headlines, and … tell you what’s really moving these markets. Guys having fun yet? Market’s all over the place, it makes tons of questions, even my family members and friends. Can’t blame them, since we had, what was it, a 13% correction last week, then a 5%, 6% surge on Monday, which the Dow surged by 1,300 points. Then on Tuesday, out of nowhere, the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points where stocks first rose 400 points, and then fell. Lot of noise out there guys, and I’m going to tell you this. Be very, very careful here. A lot of analysts believe that the worst is over. Like they were wrong in January and early February when they said, “Buy stocks. Don’t worry about the coronavirus. It wasn’t a big deal.” Going to be wrong saying the market is near a bottom here as well.
Frank Curzio: And look, they may be right. They may be right. But the uncertainty around stocks, earnings, economic growth. I mean, telling people to jump back into the market here is like telling them to bet on the number five horse in the seventh race at Santa Anita, and the odds are 20 to 1 in the morning line. Sure, the number five could win the race, but it’s not likely. Now, I put together some things, and again, for me, I want to look at what the sell-side analysts saying. They’re finally getting nervous. Goldman said, “Don’t worry, there’s growth in 2020.” JP Morgan is more nervous now, stock’s going to have trouble in 2020. Now we’re finally seeing them turn. Again, that’s very, very important, because when they always lean to one side and you think the opposite’s going to happen, that’s when we see a massive crash. Or we could see massive upside if they’re too conservative.
Frank Curzio: When I’m looking on TV and hearing people and hearing the analysts trying… Every analyst that comes on just, they’re trying to find pockets where you can buy stocks for some reason. You know why? Because you’re really not allowed to go on TV and say, “Don’t do anything,” right? Nobody wants to hear that. I mean, you guys want to hear it. Most people, they want to hear honesty, but it’s not exciting, and TV’s excitement. That’s what gets more views. Market’s going to crash 40%. We’re going to go up by 30%. I mean, people love that. Those are headlines. Those are going to get clicks. Again, this is the media. They have to make money. I’m not picking on them, but that’s the way the system is, right? You guys know that.
Frank Curzio: Here are things that are not being mentioned, which should scare you. And again, this is coming from someone like me who is not paranoid. I worry about very few things. Let me give you the list. The first, people believing China is back online. China’s not back online. And if they rush people back to work given the 27 day period where the virus can get transmitted, or you can carry the virus for… It’s not two weeks. Numerous sources confirmed it’s longer than two weeks. And we’re at the five weeks of the containment, and it’s lasted to just the last few weeks. But even if you’re forcing these people back and mandating they go back to work, man, that’s going to be pretty crazy. I mean, you could have another major outbreak happen in days, weeks.
Frank Curzio: That doesn’t matter, because we all know China’s not going to report their true numbers, just like they’re going to report a positive print on GDP in the coming quarter. Even though passenger car sales fell 94% in February. I’ve never seen a number like that, covering economics for over two decades. Yeah, it could be expected because everything was closed. Manufacturing grinding to a halt. I mean, look at the… All of the statistics are the lowest they’ve been in almost history in China, since they’ve been covering this stuff. The shipping industry, complete standstill. Almost no goods were being shipped for all of February, and expectations through March are very, very low. China still has lots of schools closed and tons of areas. If children are home, that means parents are home. That means those parents are not working.
Frank Curzio: Again, China’s going to report what they want to report. But just know, they’re nowhere close to being back online based on my sources, which include boots on the ground, people in China. Numerous businesses that import their goods from China, which are still delayed, they’re getting notices that they’re probably going to be delayed until April. I’m talking about tons and tons of e-mails that are coming in. Into April at the earliest. I mean, I had numerous people say that they’re trying to get an iPhone at a Verizon or AT&T store, and they’re out. And even a lot of the other phones are out. They’re out of stock, not being shipped. This is real.
Frank Curzio: Another thing that should worry you is everything’s okay with Apple. Apple’s going to be fine. When they said production at Foxconn is ramping up, they project iPhone production to return to normal this month in March. Are you crazy? I mean, did they really say that? I mean, if this is really the case, here’s what I want Tim Cook to do. I want him to do me a favor. Why don’t you personally fly to China to one of your plants to see what’s really going on? Do a live report from your plant saying everything’s fine. That would give me more conviction. I’m sure you can get around any travel restrictions, since you have more money than most major airports. Wouldn’t be a problem. But that would give me more conviction, because here’s a thing, and this is common sense. Again, it’s easy when analysts, economists, you want them to look at numbers all the time and try to compare them.
Frank Curzio: You can’t compare this to anything. This is the first time this has happened in the history of mankind, 500 million people are on lockdown. You can’t compare it to anything, to SARS or whatever. You can’t. It’s impossible. But just common sense, okay? I’m going to throw some common sense at you. There are over three dozen parts in the iPhone, separate parts, which translate into dozens of companies, because some companies make more than one part. But over dozens of companies, two dozen companies at least, it’s again, someone making more than one component, more chip than processors. But these are over two dozen companies that make parts for the iPhone. What are those companies? Jabil Circuit, Broadcom, Skyworks, NXP Semi, Texas Instruments, Cirrus Logic, Qualcomm, Analog Devices, STMicro, Nidec, Samsung, Sony, Hitachi. What does that mean? Let’s break down some of these companies a little bit.
Frank Curzio: STMicro has plants in Italy, Singapore, France, where seeing lots of travel restrictions in Europe, especially in Italy. Singapore and … still an outbreak there. Nidec is a Japanese-based semiconductor company that makes critical components for the Apple Watch. Japan has Sony also, makes image sensors for all three iPhone 11s. Also located in Japan. Japan is China right now in terms of the worst stage of the outbreak. I mean, they just said there’s a good chance they’re going to push the Olympics back, which starts in… I think the opening ceremony’s around 140 days from now. They’re going to push it back a few months. But their plants are online right now, they’re okay. They could supply Apple. Skyworks has plants in Singapore and Japan.
Frank Curzio: Samsung, yes, Samsung, as weird as that sounds, one of Apple’s biggest suppliers with major plants in South Korea, another place seeing some of the fastest outbreak numbers. I mean, they’re going higher and higher. The fastest, for thousands and thousands. I mean, it’s spreading like wildfire in South Korea, not even close to seeing that slow of growth which China claims. How much is Samsung levered to South Korea? It accounts for over 70% of its assets. So 70% of Samsung’s assets are located in South Korea, which means its biggest plants are there, everything’s there, most employees. And South Korea’s basically closed right now. But the iPhone is fine. Apple plants are fine. Okay, it’s not just about Apple. It’s about all the components that go into these devices. In other words, Apple is not out of the woods. They have tons of suppliers that are not going to be able to manufacture parts to meet demand, which demand was very strong last quarter, particularly for the iPhone, one of the strongest quarters for the iPhone that the company’s seen.
Frank Curzio: But the only way we’re going to know all this for sure, because we don’t know about China, we don’t know about the numbers, is when Apple reports earnings next quarter, which is late April. But I can tell you this. If you’re thinking about jumping into Apple here, and I have nothing against Apple. I hope they figure out the problem. If they come online, that means that basically we’re seeing the corona risk subside. I mean, it’s just tied to so many different industries globally, some of their parts makers. I mean, if they’re able to get out tons and tons of shipments, that’s a good sign. I hope that happens. But it’s not. It’s not happening. But you’re looking to jump into Apple here at 21 times forward earnings. That’s where it is right now, and let me tell you something about that 21 number. Because you’re looking at 21 times forward earnings, it was already a crazy multiple considering earnings grew less than 1% in 2019. Now you’re expected probably zero growth in 2020, year over year, I mean, possibly negative growth?
Frank Curzio: I mean, basically it took three months, maybe six months of earnings out of the system. And that’s just to meet the 11 production. What about the 12 that comes out in September? That’s likely to be delayed. 21 times forward earnings? That’s based on the current earnings that analysts believe, which they don’t know because Apple said, “We don’t know.” They didn’t say, “Oh, we’re expecting a dollar. We’re expecting two dollars.” They said, “We have no idea. We don’t know yet.” But yet, go buy Apple. Go buy Apple. Even though we have zero vision, zero, not even Apple usually beats earnings estimates, right? They usually guide lower, and maybe they’re off this quarter and you see a little slow of growth, which means earnings are going to fall maybe 10%. Nothing. You could factor all that stuff in there. But there’s nothing there, and people are telling you, “Jump back into Apple. Jump into the market.” There’s just not enough data. It’s crazy.
Frank Curzio: Again, Apple’s a great company. Everybody knows about their huge balance sheet where they’re going to buy back tons of stock. But are they going to do it here? Because think about that. They’re going to be buying stock near its all-time high valuation, and buying stock aggressively at a price it traded for the first time back in December, three months ago. I mean, think about it. When Apple passed $280 a share in December, it reached a new all-time high. I’m surely not thinking, oh, let’s buy stock here, right here at the all-time high, at a highest valuations. I don’t think so. But now, fast forward three months, the stock falls, 10, 12%. Now they’re going to aggressively buy? They think it’s a great opportunity? But at 21 times forward multiple, Apple should be growing earnings by at least, at least 10%. And they’re not even close to that. So be careful with this one.
Frank Curzio: Just think that there’s other technology companies that make more sense that are down 10, 15% with strong balance sheets that aren’t as leveraged to China. I mean, you look at Facebook’s probably going to see more ads, especially political, like no, I won’t get whatever. They’re going to have political ads on there. I know they cracked down. Amazon, a lot of people stay home ordering stuff. And why go into Apple here? I don’t get it. There’s nothing. As an analyst, you want some kind of indication. You want to be able to model. You can’t model anything. They said, “We don’t even know what the numbers are,” and they’re not the only company that said that. Lots of companies did.
Frank Curzio: But Apple is highly dependent on a lot of other companies. They can’t just say, “Oh, you know what? STMicro, Skyworks, you’re still delayed? You’re still closed? Okay.” They’re going to pick up the phone, “Hi, yeah, we want to switch. Could you make 46 million parts for me by next week? This way we could go ship all these iPhone 11s out.” No, it doesn’t work like that. It doesn’t work like that. Be careful buying Apple.
Frank Curzio: Another thing that makes me nervous is earnings for 2020, or no earnings growth for 2020, which Goldman Sachs is predicting. I’m going to go buy Goldman Sachs. I like using other people’s estimates. This is something that I said I don’t think that we’re going to see earnings growth, or flat. I think we’re going to come below. But let’s use Goldman Sachs numbers, who by the way originally said that there’s going to be a V-shaped recovery. We’re going to come back right away. Quick downturn, then quick upturn. Now for full 2020, they’re saying that there’s going to be no earnings growth.
Frank Curzio: What does this mean exactly? So last year, if you’re looking at the calendar year, fiscal year is 159. Let’s look at the calendar year, right? The calendar year earnings came in at 165. That’s the total earnings for all the S&P companies combined, 165. And also projecting earnings to rise to 180 in 2020. Pretty big growth, double digit growth. If that was the case, total S&P 500 earnings came in at 180 for 2020, then the S&P 500 would be trading at 17 times forward earnings, still 12% higher than a 10 year average of 15 times earnings, which is expensive by itself. Again, we had great measures in place, favorable monetary policy, all that stuff, which is fantastic. That’s fine, but still expensive. But earnings for 2020, because according to Goldman, are projected to be flat from 2019.
Frank Curzio: So they’re projected to come in at $165. Stay with me here. I don’t want to lose you. It’s not a lot of numbers, because we take the current price of the S&P 500, which is around $3,100, and divide it by 165. We get 19 times forward earnings, the highest multiple we’ve seen since the credit crisis. And that’s after last week’s massive decline. So we are trading at a massive growth multiple right now, which being applied to stocks, even though earnings barely grew in 2019. Again, they came off massive growth due to the tax reforms of the previous year. Last year they didn’t really grow, but everyone expected huge growth in 2020. We’re not going to see it. We’re not going to see it. That tells me there’s still a lot of downside risk here, which is why you should have cash on the sidelines. It’s not panic to sell. It’s not to take… It’s really panic selling when you’re up hundreds of percents of stocks or 30, 40, 50% on stocks where the S&P just went up 30% the year before. You see one of the biggest growth markets.
Frank Curzio: I mean, they’re making it out on TV, oh, you’re panicking. Don’t panic. Selling is not panicking. I’m not panicked. Do I sound panicked? No, I’m fine. And there’s so many things going on. There’s people that say, “Don’t fight the Fed,” right? Let’s get into the Fed, because this also scares me. A 50 basis point cut by the Fed at 10:00 AM on a Tuesday? Really? And why do you feel the need to surprise the markets for? And by surprise, listen. 100 basis point cut is factored in, which is nuts. And I’ll tell you, that’s a bottom market’s factoring. But we had Monday, which was a G7 meeting, and they almost went out of their way to basically tell the markets that, “Well, we’re not doing anything yet. We’ll wait for the Fed meeting.” Then you come in at 10:00 AM, with the market up by the way, it was like 200 points, and you just announce a 50 basis point cut? Not 25, but 50.
Frank Curzio: I mean, the only times we lowered rates by this amount recently is during a credit crisis, from mid-2007 through December 2008 when we lowered rates by more than 25 basis points five separate times because why was it such big cuts? Again, before you compare, you’ve got to look at the data. We were at 5.25%, the Fed funds rate, in August 2017. That’s why we got so aggressive. We’re at 1.5 to 1.75 and you’re doing this, this aggressive cut? This much of an aggressive cut? Now we’re at 1 to 1 and a quarter percent? That screams nervousness to me, desperation. And again, we’re priced again close to 100%. When I say 100% guys, I just mentioned, I mean the bottom market, right? Bottom market is pricing at 100% probability, even though 100% is likely, of a 100 basis point cut in the Fed’s fund rate by July. We just got 50. So what does that mean if the bottom market is pricing it? Why is that such a big deal? It means the Fed better lower rates by that amount, or the market’s going to react very negative to it.
Frank Curzio: So it’s almost you’re forcing their hand, unless you want to have the market fall sharply. Now keep in mind here, guys. The coronavirus is a temporary problem, not a structural one. I just didn’t think it was three months. I knew it was going to be at least nine months, and that’s why I came out and said, “You’ve got to worry.” But it’s a temporary problem. I mean, it could take six months, it could take 12 months to subside. In the meantime, unemployment is still near an historic low, the housing markets, they’re relatively strong, interest rates are already historically low, very, very low, and you’re aggressively lowering rates here because the market fell 10%?
Frank Curzio: So there’s basically two ways to look at this. The Fed is very nervous, like we just mentioned. They see the coronavirus as a much bigger threat to the global economy. And not just ours, the global economy. That’s what most people and the markets and economists believe. That’s one way to look at it. Another way is, if the coronavirus ends up being a six month problem, lowering rates this aggressively and this fast is likely going to result in a huge jump in inflation. Inflation is something for the last 10 years I told you was not going to be a problem. We’ve heard people shout from the top of rooftops, “That’s it. Inflation’s here. Buy gold. You’re going to have crazy inflation.” We don’t have inflation. I know. I’m with you. Every one of my bills is higher. Every single bill that I’ve paid, two years ago, four years ago, six years ago, is the highest it’s been. Electricity, cable, healthcare, tuition. Everything’s high. It doesn’t matter. It’s not what the Fed looks at. What the Fed looks at is the CPI, and the CPI is showing no inflation. That’s all you should care about.
Frank Curzio: You could argue, you could hold up signs, you can get pissed off, whatever. This is about the markets. The Fed only looks at CPI. The CPI showed no inflation. That’s going to change. I mean, inflation has been nonexistent since the credit crisis, which baffled everyone, given how much stimulus, the massive stimulus, all those initiatives the world has taken to ignite growth over the past seven, eight, nine years. No inflation. But this move? This move right here to lower rates by 50 basis points, and you’re expected to lower by another 50 basis points over the next few months? And central banks all over the world injecting massive amounts of money directly into their economies and into stocks if you’re China? And the negative effects of this, it can’t be understated, guys.
Frank Curzio: I’m surprised that more people aren’t talking about this, especially economists, and even some of the former Fed governors who… And I say former Fed because they could express their opinion honestly, and they’re not handcuffed by the Fed or an institution. It’s like working at Goldman Sachs, if you have the leading economist, I forget his name. Jan Hatzius or something, whatever his name is. And if he’s saying that the economy’s going to fall into a recession, you can’t have someone underneath him saying, “Well, you know what? We’re not going to fall into a recession. We’ll be fine.” No, especially during times of uncertainty. Sure they go out there and they say what they want to say sometimes, and it’s a little different. It’s unbelievable. Oh, we should be trading at lower, should be rating… When it comes to stuff like this, if you’re working for the fed government across the board, it’s everyone. Everyone is on the same page. You need everyone on the same page. You don’t want uncertainty, you’re trying to make the markets… so everyone. Everybody voted for this. That’s expected.
Frank Curzio: But you should have some of the past governors, people who don’t work for the Fed any more. And I’m surprised they’re not talking about the impact this could have. Now I’m going to tell you how to benefit from this massive inflationary trend that I give probably a 70% chance of happening over the next nine to 12 months, going to break it down in the educational segment, and sectors to buy, sectors to avoid, what’s going to be impacted. That’s going to be a good educational segment, guys.
Frank Curzio: But first, but first, I was able to lock in a great guest for you this week. The name is Chad Neilsen, who is a director of accreditation and infection prevention at the University of Florida Health in Jacksonville. In normal terms, Chad’s an expert in the field of infection prevention and control. So you’re at the forefront of this. As you can imagine, very, very busy since we just had the first two confirmed cases in Florida. But he agreed to come on this podcast to discuss his thoughts on the coronavirus from, like I just said, the front line. This includes going over the protocol for someone who tested positive for the coronavirus, what they do, alright? This is behind-the-scenes stuff. We’re hearing it from doctors and being interviewed by… Let’s hear it from Chad.
Frank Curzio: Also going to go over the difficulties hospitals are having in testing for this virus, something else that we’re hearing a lot, and talk about how you can prevent yourself, family members, from catching it and what measures that will not work in helping to prevent the spread of the virus. I mean, this is interesting because a lot of these measures are being mentioned in the media to protect yourself, and they’re wrong. Guys, it’s going to be a great, great interview and you know what? Let’s get to it with Chad right now. Chad, thanks so much for joining us on Wall Street Unplugged.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
Frank Curzio: Well, before we get started, why don’t you tell us a little bit about yourself and the work you’re doing at UF Health?
Chad Neilsen: Sure, no problem. So I’m a director of accreditation and infection prevention here at UF Health Jacksonville. So my primary job is to make sure that number one, we’re meeting patient safety guidelines that are set down from the federal government, and the second part of it is protecting patients from getting infections while in our hospital and preventing them from spreading if they do come in.
Frank Curzio: Now, are you allowed to take us through the protocol? Say if somebody comes in and gets tested for the coronavirus, right? What’s the process that you have in place right now?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, so it’s actually pretty complex. Our hospital’s been preparing for these sort of cases for a while now. We always have emergency preparedness guidelines, whether it’s a surge of patients that come in or some kind of weird infectious disease. And so when a patient comes in right now, they immediately have to hit some travel screenings for us. So not every patient that comes in with flu-like illness is going to get tested for this. They have to have flu-like illness and they have to have recent travel to one of a number of different countries that the CDC actually is watching. And if they hit that criteria, that’s when we recommend that the health department go ahead and test them for COVID-19.
Frank Curzio: So say if they get tested positively, then I think I read isolation rooms and you’re just making sure that you’re doing simulations I think you said. Could you take us through… Say now, okay, you determined that this person has coronavirus. Now what’s the next step?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, so any of the patients that are actually going to be suspected of having this, that travel screen positive and kind of have said, “Yeah, I came from Italy,” where they’re having an outbreak, they’re already going to be placed into a negative air isolation room. So that’s a room that’s going to have the air basically sucked out of it, put through filters, and exhausted to the exterior of the hospital. Because obviously we don’t want that air recycling through the other patients. So if a patient were to test positive for the coronavirus at this point, if the patient doesn’t medically need to continue care in a hospital, we’re going to send them home.
Chad Neilsen: We’re going to report the case to the health department, and then we’re going to send the patient home on basically a 14-day quarantine, and the health department actually follows up with the patient at that point. If the patient continues to need an increased level of healthcare, then we’ll keep the patient, we’ll treat their symptoms and whatever else they’ve got going on, and then once they’re ready for discharge, we’ll go ahead and do so, at the same time notifying the health department again to keep an eye on them at home.
Frank Curzio: And since it’s… I mean, I think we have two cases confirmed in Florida. I’m pretty sure last time I looked at the CDC site, there’s 12 states that now have it, that have confirmed cases. So how long do you keep them say in quarantine for if they do have it? Because there’s… Again, I’ve been following this trend very thoroughly, and I’m hearing reports in China that you can carry this disease, it was originally 14 days, but there’s doctors that reported that there’s two patients that had it for 27 days, and then they passed it on, which is a big deal, right? Because it’s basically how long before you could actually release these people back into the public. But how long are you guys taking, or how long is the standard out there that you’re hearing?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, it’s still around 14 days, and that’s based on sort of the limited information we have, right? So the problem is, we don’t have a lot of good information coming out China to really trust what the disease looks like when it runs its course, so for the stateside cases, the idea is that they’re carrying it for 14 days, but that’s ever evolving. The more cases we get, the more likelihood that we’re going to see that 14-day sort of communicability period increase. It’s just like the flu virus. A patient can carry the flu and continue to shed it for up to two to three weeks after they’ve had it, and so whether or not that actually passes on to people, that’s the part that’s really unknown right now.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, I hear you. There are a lot of unknowns.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah.
Frank Curzio: So one of the things that I read, and I’m seeing a lot of doctors complain about this. I have pretty good sources, and I’ve also seen some on TV come on. And then I did a lot of research on you and read an article where you mentioned it, but a lot of the docs have been complaining about the testing system, right, for the virus–
Chad Neilsen: Oh yeah.
Frank Curzio: Where it takes up to 48 hours, you’ve got to send the test results to the CDC first. I mean, it’s kind of a nightmare, and I had you quoted as saying Florida did receive some test kits, but there was a problem with them, so they were pulled. If more come, they’ll be ready at UF Health Jacksonville. This is from February 26, a week ago. Where are you now with this? Is it getting easier finally?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, slowly but surely. So over the weekend, the state of Florida did receive tests distributed from the CDC out of Atlanta that we can use. And so right now, as of today, there are three state health department sites, one in Miami, one in Tampa, and one here in Jacksonville that can test for the virus. So although it’s gotten a little bit easier, there’s still an inundation of tests coming from around the state to only three state laboratories. So that process is getting a little bit better. The idea right now is that if you send a test in to the health department in the morning, you’ll have a same-day result. So we’ll see. We haven’t had to exercise that here at our hospital, but we’re hopeful that if we do, we’ll have some better results than the three to four day turnaround at the CDC.
Frank Curzio: Now, you’ve done a good job explaining in your articles, because even now that we’re talking about this and you just listen to the media, people are very, very nervous. But if you look at the statistics, outside of China, even the death rates, it’s a little bit worse than the flu. And people die from the flu of course, but it’s a very low percentage, even below 1%. What are some of the biggest misconceptions you’re seeing? Because my thesis has been, look, this is going to be an economic crisis because more people are staying home, people are getting scared. But it’s not a health crisis, is it? I mean, should people actually worry? I feel like people are so scared that they may get it, that they could die. I mean, again, these are regular people just watching TV, and the media and probably your friends and family that are calling you, but talk about some of the misconceptions you’re hearing out there about the virus.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, I definitely think there’s misconceptions out there, primarily between how bad I think people think this is versus how bad it can be. There’s no doubt right now that a lot of the deaths in China are in the elderly population who are the same types of population that would die of the flu here, but also the fact is, is they’re completely overwhelmed in their healthcare sites. So routine care is even more different to get in China right now in some of these hard hit areas of the coronavirus. So are we seeing a virus that’s actually more dangerous, or are we just seeing a lack of healthcare resources to adequately care for those patients?
Chad Neilsen: And so I think right now, people need to keep perspective. I think that the flu is a much more dangerous concern for Americans right now, even though flu season is winding down. The flu kills 10,000 to 20,000 Americans every year according to the CDC. We only have six deaths of coronavirus so far in the United States, and most of those cases occurred in very sick individuals who were comorbid condition and immunosuppressed anyway. So I think people need to keep perspective in what this is. We need to go back to the old school of hand washing, covering your cough, and don’t go to work sick, and I think we’re going to be okay.
Frank Curzio: And what about masks? I mean, masks, it seems obvious that they would work if you know how to properly use them, if you have gloves. But I can picture people taking the mask off. One person told me that they were on a flight and like six or seven people had masks. They all took it off to eat. So are masks really something that could prevent or is it kind of like you need to do a little bit more than that?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, you’re going to need a little bit more than that. Most of the masks that people are actually wearing out in public, you see celebrities posting Instagram pictures wearing masks and all this, those masks are largely not effective against COVID-19 anyway. The masks that people are using are those surgical yellow or blue masks that aren’t effective at filtering the virus anyway. So you’re kind of just wasting money and giving yourself a false sense of security. So again, there’s not a need for widespread mass usage in the United States like there is in China or South Korea, where you’ve got tens of thousands of cases. We’re not there yet here in the States, and I’m not sure if we ever will be. So I think the public needs to save the masks, allow them to be used in the hospitals and the healthcare systems that need them to provide good patient care. But it’s really unnecessary at this point.
Frank Curzio: Now, I’ve heard that washing hands, not shaking someone’s hands, or just measures that make sense, but when I was reading one of your articles, a different doctor was quoted saying that the first priority for the public is to get the annual flu shot or the flu vaccine. I mean, can this actually help? And I know that the flu is, again, it’s very similar to this, but it has something you think that could work? Because I really haven’t heard that too much out there.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, I haven’t heard or read anything suggesting that the flu shot is effective at preventing this. I mean, we have several types of coronavirus that continually circulate in the United States. It’s just this is a new strain of it. But I think the urge to get a flu shot is really taken out of context. I think it’s to ensure that most people’s common colds and common viruses they pick up this time of year is going to be the flu, and that’s why people should get the flu shot. There’s not really evidence right now showing that that flu vaccination does anything against this.
Frank Curzio: Okay, and staying on the flu topic here, which is something I want to know, when I look at the flu, my predictions have been that there’s a good shot for this ending around June, July. That’s when the weather’s going to be warmer. If this is similar, flu is seasonal, right? And we don’t get it during the summer, we get it during now. But is there a shot that this could happen? Is there talk of this where the warm weather is very hard for these viruses to spread where… Have you heard anything like that? Again, it’s all speculation. This is brand new. I’m just curious if these are some of the questions or if you’re hearing that in circles.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, we’re starting to hear some of that speculation of what is this actually going to look like? Will it be seasonal? Is this a winter bug? People seem to not know that there’s actually a flu B virus that actually is a summer flu virus that hits in the late spring. And so we kind of already know that there’s viruses that can survive throughout different seasons and spring, summer. Whether or not this coronavirus is going to be one of them is still to be determined, but you’ve got people out there saying that 30, 40% of America could get this, and what it’ll probably look like is eventually some kind of seasonal rotating bug that comes and goes during respiratory viral season in the fall and winter and goes on break for the summer and doesn’t reappear again until the fall.
Frank Curzio: Now, we’ve seen what happened in China where I understand that they didn’t know what they had in the coronavirus, right? So they went to extreme measures, quarantine people. It was 500 million people if you count all of the places that were on lockdown. It seems like we’re kind of taking the same measures where schools are closing and people are saying, “Avoid, don’t go out, don’t travel.” Do you think this is a bad idea? I just think that it’s spreading more fear of something that we don’t do this with the flu, right?
Frank Curzio: I mean, we don’t do this, close Disney parks and things like that. I mean, or is it hey, you have to worry about it because it does cause, especially if you’re older like you said or even young children, but your thoughts I guess is mostly opinion. Is that the right way to go about this, or it’s just like, hey, if you get it, you’re going to be okay. And maybe that’ll happen as we see more people get it because there is going to spread a lot more I think in the U.S. and so we’re just starting to test it? But I just want to get your opinion on that.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, I mean, totally an opinion based here, but I do think that this is probably something closer to your common cold or a milder flu. And so I think that a lot of the panic and a lot of the uneasiness with the CDC and the World Health is, this was new. We don’t really know what it is or what it looks like because we haven’t researched it, but as more and more cases occur and as more and more people get it, I do believe the tide is going to turn where they’re going to say, “You know what? We don’t need to shut things down. This is the common cold, this is the common flu. Let’s keep things in perspective.” This is not like SARS or MERS-CoV from years ago. The fatality rate does not affect all demographics and generations the same as those did.
Chad Neilsen: This new coronavirus really does appear to be affecting older individuals, which should be obviously a concern, but it makes it more akin to flu. So I do think at the end of the day, this is going to be something more akin to the common flu and we’ll certainly have to have our guard up during certain seasons. But I’m not sure at this point we’re at that tipping point to be closing schools down and causing mass public panic.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and we’ve seen the first school closure in New York too where they were worried, because that’s why, I was just surprised to see it, where they’re like, oh, just taking precautionary measures. I guess the last thing I’ll follow up with, because a lot of people are talking about a vaccine coming to the market. We’ve heard that it will take six to nine months before this happens, and I also heard a story that vaccines don’t really come to the market that quick, or quicker than expected, and if they do, it could be very dangerous and damaging, right? So they have to make sure and go through these tests, but did you see a vaccine maybe coming to the market over the next six to 12 … And that’s, again, a tough question to answer, but I’m just curious. In your circles, are you hearing this? Is that what we’re depending on, or?
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, I mean, there’s several of the major pharmaceuticals that are trying to work on vaccines for this. I mean honestly, if you’re going through the FDA and the USDA’s processes of flu trials and phase one, phase two, and phase three trials for vaccines, you’re talking 12 to 18 months before something hits market. They have to do non-human trials, then they have to do human trials. We’re a long way off from a vaccine, so I don’t think it’s on the horizon any time soon.
Frank Curzio: Well Chad, I guess we’re going to leave it there. I want to say that I think you’re doing an amazing job. I mean, I know you’re in the media every place–
Chad Neilsen: I appreciate it.
Frank Curzio: Everybody’s learning, right? So it’s all learning. You’re trying to pour it back, and really cool, but to come on this podcast and really help my audience, I really appreciate it.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, you’re very welcome. I’m happy to, and I think for the audience to know is, the common phrase keep calm and carry on. I think wash your hands, good cough hygiene, and social distancing. So when you’re sick, stay home. Don’t spread anything. And we should be doing that all the time, but it shouldn’t take a new virus to get us to do that.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. Well, great advice Chad, and thank you again so much for coming on the podcast.
Chad Neilsen: Yeah, thanks for having me. I appreciate you guys and everything you do.
Frank Curzio: Okay, guys. Pretty incredible interview. I had someone from the front line, I wanted you to hear that personally. Again, I’ve been saying that this is not a health crisis, even though they’re closing schools, even though you’re seeing people worried and travel restrictions. I mean, it’s pretty crazy what’s going on right now for something like this. Again, I understand these measures being taken early. Now we know what it is. I get it could evolve, it can get worse. But, for most people, this is going to be a little bit worse than a cold, a little bit worse than the flu. But I really appreciate Chad coming on. I mean, some of the things that stood out to me was at least 12 to 18 months before we see a vaccine. We’re hearing nine months, maybe 12. That’s pretty crazy.
Frank Curzio: Not in favor of closing schools, I love that. You’re hearing that from doctors, just hey, be smart. If you’re sick, stay home, but you don’t have to close everything. And the testing equipment. I mean, come on. Give me a break. What is going on here? How don’t we have the proper testing equipment for this? Why does this take so long? I mean, there’s talk about isolation rooms, but think about if say this spreads into a movie theater. You’re going to have 200, 300, 400 people come into the same time into one hospital saying, “Okay, we need to take these tests.” They’re going to take 48 hours? It’ll still take a long time.
Frank Curzio: I mean, this isn’t just from Chad. I’ve heard doctors on CNBC say this too, that this is insane. We don’t have the… They’re not testing. So I made a statement early on, and people were like, you’re absolutely crazy. And I said there’s a good shot that we’re going to see more cases here than in China, which means we’re going to be over 85,000. That’s not that crazy. We haven’t been testing for this. We haven’t been testing for this. It went to 12 states in a week and a half. In a week and a half.
Frank Curzio: And again, as it spreads, you don’t have to get nervous, like oh my God, if I catch this. For example, I’m not worried about it. I am worried for my daughter, who has Crohn’s disease, who takes medicine that lowers her immune system. Yeah, I’d be worried. If I have… My mom is back home from the hospital, who’s very old. I’m worried. But to say that tens of thousands of people are going to get this, I mean, I don’t think that’s an understatement. I don’t think that’s a crazy number at all. I mean, you’re going to see… Nevada, the traveling. I mean, every state around Nevada basically has it. You’re looking at now cases in Florida, New York City closing schools. You’re going to see it. You’re going to see it.
Frank Curzio: Just, again, it’s going to hurt the economy and hurt stocks and markets even more if we keep closing stuff and have travel restrictions and… Again, we don’t do that for the flu, but we’re going to do that for this, which is surprising, because we know what it is. I mean, it’s a lot… To be honest with you, people that I’m talking to around the U.S. and my circle’s not so worried as if they would get it, compared to three weeks ago where you’re like, holy shit. If I get this, what’s going to happen? It’s crazy. Having Chad come on this podcast during this incredibly busy time, I really appreciate it. As you could hear on the phone, he was in the field, he’s on a cell phone doing this interview. And I really, really appreciate that. I just want to give you guys a perspective.
Frank Curzio: And I want to bring on people who have different opinions than me. It’s not that I want to bring on people that have the same opinion, the market’s going to… No, I want you to hear everything. I mean, you can’t predict the future, you don’t know who’s going to be right, who’s going to be wrong. I mean, so far we’ve been pretty dead on with this, which is cool. But you never know. You never know how quickly it could change or how quickly sentiment changes, where people feel okay and they’re not worried about it.
Frank Curzio: I mean, you could look… It took a very long time when, this is an extreme example here, guys, but when Magic Johnson announced when he has AIDS, you want to talk about bravery? Back then, I mean, nobody really understood the disease and everybody was scared to shake his hand. They were like, oh my God. It was like the plague. Get away from him. Now, you wouldn’t even think twice. It took decades for that to happen. I’m not saying it’s going to happen with this, but sentiment’s a funny thing. What worries people and incidentally what doesn’t worry people, that’s how you have to gauge the economic impact of what’s going to happen. How long are people going to stay home for? Are they not going to travel? So many business, so many business deals are done by traveling, shaking hands, going to places, going on a golf course. You’re not doing that right now.
Frank Curzio: Another interesting point that he said that I was saying, just with this virus probably ending around June, and I didn’t know that there was actually flu strains that are in the summer. So maybe I could be wrong. Again, we’re all learning about this. I mean, we want to have as much information as possible. What I do know is there’s a lot of uncertainty out there and there’s no answers. So people tell you to jump into the market, everything’s going to be okay. I mean, it’s nuts. It’s crazy. There’s just too much uncertainty. You don’t know. You’re not going to know until these companies report earnings. I don’t care about missing a 5, 7, 8% move higher, especially when these things are down 15, 20%, a lot of these names. We just don’t want to go in blind and walking into a dark room and just not knowing what’s in front of you. That’s what you’re doing if you’re buying into the market, or you’re trying to average down or buying these stocks.
Frank Curzio: Because you’re like… I love Intel. I sold Intel. I sold Intel, it’s down 20% from its highs in one of my portfolios. You may say, “Well, Intel’s trading at 11 times forward earnings.” You don’t know that. Depending on what they report and how much they lower earnings, they may be trading at 17 times forward earnings. Who knows? If they lower their earnings estimates that much, are they severely impacted? That’s what I mean. So when people say, “Oh, Apple’s trading at just down 20% off its highs. That’s a buy,” you don’t know what that E is. So how do you value a company like that? It’s pretty crazy.
Frank Curzio: I mean, I give Buffett credit. I know he’s a forever investor, but to really buy Delta here. I mean, Delta was in our portfolio. I love it, by far the greatest airline. It was cheap already, but I didn’t think that this was going to spread globally so quickly where I was like, okay, at least they could model their flights not going to China. That’ll be okay. Now, it’s… I mean, you’re looking at these companies, they have balance sheets that are much stronger now, but again, this is a sentiment thing. When people may not travel for six, nine months, and if that’s the case, Delta’s not trading at a single digit multiple. They could be trading at 15, 16 times earnings depending on what they report. You have to keep that in mind.
Frank Curzio: That’s going to lead into my educational segment, which is about how to position your portfolio in the wake of rising inflation. I know that sounds crazy. We don’t ever have inflation or talks about, we never have… Guys, this is going to happen. And we’re going to see it with the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points. That’s what they’re looking to do. They just it on Tuesday by 50 basis points, halfway there. Again, not sure why they needed to surprise, making the cut at 10:00 AM on a Tuesday after the previous day, the afternoon, the G7 meeting. They made sure to go out of their way to let you know, oh, we’re not going to do anything before the next meeting. I thought the Fed’s job was not to surprise the markets, to be more transparent. This wasn’t transparent. That explains why the market just completely reversed after this. I mean, it went up right away and then boom. They got destroyed.
Frank Curzio: Anyway, this type of move screams of nervousness. And the Fed’s obviously worried about the long-term implications of a global slowdown, right? Which by the way is the reason why I felt the markets were extremely overvalued but will collapse, same as in early February when stocks were in the all-time highs. Again, I talk about my losers and winners. I’m just bringing up the point here. The reason why I felt that we could see a global recession as this thing spread like wildfire, my thesis was based on several facts. One, there’s no way this was going to be a one quarter thing, and the reason why is because I was all over SARS. I mean, it’s looking at it, and they were comparing it to SARS, and again, Goldman Sachs and all these… It’s a quick recovery, V-shaped recovery. I’m like, you’re crazy. They’re shutting down China.
Frank Curzio: These people aren’t going to just… It’s not a big door that opens up and 500 million people go back to work. You’re crazy. A lot of these people travel hundreds, thousand miles to their jobs and stay at these facilities for three, four months at a time. I’ve been to China. I’ve seen it. You look at even the smaller plants, they have these massive housing complexes, huge buildings where these people live for months. They work and then they go back home, kind of like the man camps that you saw during the oil boom in the U.S. And they’re paying these guys 100 grand in the U.S. to go to in the middle of North Dakota, Williston Basin, to stay there for four, five months, get paid really nice, and then two months off, you go back home, and then you come back. Not a lot of traveling going on.
Frank Curzio: Manufacturing’s going to grind to a halt. These results are based on every sell-side firm and economist was predicting a very, very quick recovery. And that’s one of the benefits of having access to these reports. You see when they’re leaning so far into one side. Sometimes it’s the other way, where everybody’s completely bearish. We’re only halfway there now. There’s a lot of firms that still, I would say, I think it was 96% of the companies had buy ratings on Apple, and I don’t even, maybe there was one downgrade? And we’re talking about 30, 35 sell-side analysts that cover that stock? We’re seeing more upgrades than downgrades. We saw the upgrades yesterday. The market went up. Everyone’s upgrading everything. How do you see the numbers? How do you see the numbers? You’re crazy.
Frank Curzio: A lot of these firms, again, comparing it to SARS and a V-shaped recovery, which they’re thinking it’s going to have little impact on our earnings and economic growth. They just didn’t see it. For me, it was definitely more than one quarter, probably three quarters. And if that was the case, it’s going to affect the global economy. It’s going to do it significantly. So when you’re looking at valuations back then in early February and looking at the markets trading at a multiple of 19 times forward earnings, most expensive they’ve been since the credit crisis, with this major risk on the table, it was absolutely nuts.
Frank Curzio: And the companies were telling you, oh, you know what? We’re all starting to see coronavirus stuff. There’s about 30% of the companies that warned before we saw that collapse, the 13% collapse last week. You just had to listen. You just had to follow these conference calls. They were saying they were worried. Even Tesla said, “Oh, well, we might see a minor impact.” Then they said when they were raising money you have to come out, one of their warnings was we could see a significant impact. This was before the market crashed. They have plants in China. But think about where we are right now, guys, before you decide to jump back in, because nobody’s traveling right now. Manufacturing’s still mostly offline, no matter what people are telling you. And it’s going to impact the markets at least two to three quarters, which means we’re likely to see most of the top 10 economies report negative GDP growth, not just for the coming quarter but for two consecutive quarters, which is the definition of a global recession. That’s the bad news.
Frank Curzio: The good news, we have a coordinated response by central governments around the world which are trying to stimulate their economies. It’s not a terrible thing in case the virus continues to spread to hundreds of thousands of people, and that’s just in the U.S. They’re saying less than 100,000 have it now. I think it’s 92 or 93. And who knows if it’s going to spread fast again in China since they’re mandating everybody go back to work, which is crazy. But these guys, these central governments are out of control with the measures. I mean, it’s crazy. And I could see okay, here’s a 25 basis point… A 50 basis point cut, and the bottom market’s pricing at 100% probability that the Fed’s going to cut another 50 basis points by June? I mean, I covered that earlier where… I mean, those are extreme reactions around a credit crisis where the Fed funds rate was 5 and a quarter and we needed to get down very, very quickly. And look where we are now, 1 and a quarter percent. It’s crazy. It’s crazy, this reaction.
Frank Curzio: And look, I’m going to say it. I’m going to say it and just say it, because no one’s saying this on TV. I have no effing idea why we are so scared of a recession. We’re not talking about the credit crisis. We’re not talking about a disaster, right, where our entire financial system could collapse. You wouldn’t be able to get money out of banks. GE couldn’t pay its employees. Something needed to be done, whether you hated it or not. We probably would’ve had 30% unemployment and probably would’ve had a worse depression than the ’30s if we let every bank collapse. I know if you’re not working and you hate the system, you want for that to happen. But if that happened, man. We’d still probably be in a recession, or a depression. That called for extreme measures. But this is a normal occurrence that takes place when we see growth get too ahead of itself. I mean, you go through it with slow down. You got companies with strong balance sheets usually outperform, start aggressively buying assets, right, at cheaper valuations, use discounts, smaller companies.
Frank Curzio: This is a normal process that’s been happening in the market for 100 years. What’s not normal? To have a growth market for 10 straight years. 10 straight years. You see the biggest bull market in terms of duration in the history of the markets. It’s not normal to cut rates this aggressively for a temporary problem that’s going to be nine to 12 months because you’re afraid that we’re going to go into a recession? Is that really going to be the end of the world? Are we afraid of the stock market ever going down? It’s not allowed to go down. If it goes down sharply, don’t worry about it. Right away, let’s just… I mean, the Fed looks terrible here. For the Fed to say that they’re independent and they don’t look at the stock market is a freaking joke. Come on, give me a break. You’re out of your mind.
Frank Curzio: And I get it. I get the Fed is under significant pressure to lower rates, especially from our president. It makes sense, because this is an election year where Trump is pretty much a sure thing if the economy’s fine. That’s what usually happens. But if not, we could see a Democrat get elected. So I could see the Fed, right, the normal course of action right now when you’ve been really wrong and saying, “Oh, this isn’t a big deal. This isn’t a big deal. No, we’re fine. See a little impact, not a big deal.” Because again, you look at numbers, you’re comparing it to other things.
Frank Curzio: It’s like when Larry Kudlow was on CNBC, he’s like, “I’m looking at the data. I’m looking at the data. It doesn’t look bad. It doesn’t look bad.” You’re looking at the wrong data. You shouldn’t even be looking at data. Just take a step back. Get out of that room, get out of your head and just say, okay, let me think about this for a minute. China’s closed. They accounted for 39% of the global growth in 2019, and they shut down for two months now. That’s going to impact every economy. Don’t compare it to SARS, it’s going to come back really quick. It’s not even a comparison. It’s crazy. So their normal course of action when you’re behind the curve is to overdeliver, make a big statement, try to catch up. That’s what they did.
Frank Curzio: Now forget politics. I don’t care who you like, what presidential candidate you like. I don’t care. Forget being pissed at the Fed. Let people go online. Their mission is to destroy the Fed at every cost. They’re idiots, they don’t know what they’re doing. It doesn’t matter. I mean, if these things bother you, go to a Trump rally and hold up a sign saying that he’s an idiot if that makes you feel better. Go on social media, rip the Fed apart, how they’re supposed to be an independent organization. They don’t look at the stock market to determine policy. Post 1,000 times if you… To me, it’s a complete waste of time. It’s not productive.
Frank Curzio: And the reason why you listen to this podcast is for me to tell you how you can benefit in terms of asset allocation, to position yourself to maximize returns while limiting risk. If we look at it from this perspective, taking emotions out, once the coronavirus risk subsides, and it will, we’re going to see a lot of inflation. And if this risks subsides sooner rather than later, like June, July, there’s zero chance the Fed is going to raise rates before the November election. Zero. They’re going to lower, and they have to lower, right? The bottom market’s pricing in at least another two rate cuts, or it could be one of 50 basis points, pricing it in almost at 100% right now, which means the Fed has to do it, or they risk that you’re going to disrupt the markets. They priced that in. But there’s zero chance the Fed’s going to raise rates before the November election. There’s no way. There’s absolutely no way that’s going to happen. They won’t take it back.
Frank Curzio: So we’re going to have super low rates at least through Q1 2021. That’s a fair assumption, unless you believe that there… I don’t see it. I think Trump, his head will explode if that happens heading into the election. His head will explode. He’ll go crazy. I mean, his Twitter account, he’d be tweeting about 50 times a day, going crazy. It’s not going to happen. So Q1 2021, we’re going to have low rates at least until then, probably longer. And I can’t see inflation surging over this time as manufacturing, travel, the sectors that are negatively impacted by the virus, they’re going to start coming back online.
Frank Curzio: So how do you position yourself for inflation? Gold, silver, not just stocks. You’ll see junior miners that issued tons of warrants and got looted the hell out of shareholders over the past six, seven years. Be careful. Not all stocks. The producers, the royalty companies pretty much should do well, and select juniors. But also invest in the actual spot price through ETFs. It’s a safer bet. I think gold’s going a lot higher, as well as silver. To buy gold coins, make sure you get a reputable person. The guy I trust the most is Van Simmons. I’ve used him for a long time. Just Google him. Believe it or not, agriculture does good during inflation every time, because there’s a sector that’s been decimated. Again, not telling you to invest everything, just looking at certain pockets.
Frank Curzio: Healthcare, especially healthcare companies leveraged to the U.S. Real estate, not so much inflation is going to push prices higher, but you’re going to have low interest rates, which means home builders should do pretty well. I mean, as home prices rise, super low interest means more refinancing, so banks highly leveraged to real estate, which is probably Wells Fargo is the most I think out of the big four. The Home Depot, the Lowe’s. But it’s going to be an interesting time. I mean, it’s not just inflation. We’re going to see stagflation. It might be a new word to a lot of you because it hasn’t happened in such a long time. That’s going to mean is higher prices and slower growth. And the last time this happened, it was the ’70s into the ’80s.
Frank Curzio: I know economists will laugh when they hear me mention that term, but this could happen. We could see stagflation, where unemployment’s going to start rising, right? These companies, their profits are lower. They’re probably going to start laying people off. We’re going to have lower rates. The Fed’s going to lower rates, right? We’re going to have prices rise. These companies are going to try to raise their… Look at China. I mean, the prices, right? Look at the inflation rate in China. Yet, if we see a Democrat get elected, again, politics aside, it’s probably going to lead to higher taxes. And that’s the definition of stagflation, and that’s a dangerous scenario. It’s a dangerous scenario.
Frank Curzio: And if you’re looking at it … So from an inflation rate, if you’re seeing inflation with economic growth, which is common, I mean, you can go into international real estate, you can go into emerging markets. So there’s equity usually perform well. But if you see the economy declining while inflation is rising, it’s different when it comes to allocation. They’re looking at tips, cash, cash equivalents, gold, precious metals, commodities. That’s the likely scenario that I see. I may be crazy, I don’t know. I may be wrong. I’m just saying, that’s… We’ve been pretty ahead of this. That’s what I see over the next 12 months.
Frank Curzio: Because these sectors that I’m looking at right now, you see lots of names within the sectors that I’ve mentioned making their way into my newsletters throughout 2020. So you’re not going to see every gold stock benefit, you’re not going to see every real estate company and retail and everything benefit. And not all home builders would benefit. We’re using a top down approach, looking at the macro first, then sectors that are going to benefit, then screening for the best individual names with the most potential based on risk reward. Maybe some that have fallen a lot further than others, some that are going to see more earnings growth, some in the right areas of the market that growing and expected to grow a lot faster home builders. They have different geographies.
Frank Curzio: So, expect to see a lot of these names make their way into Curzio Venture, Curzio Research Advisory. Even making a really cool recommendation in our Crypto Intelligence newsletter, which is going to be published over the next few days. It’s supposed to post today after the close, but it’s been crazy updating everyone with coronavirus. And plus, I need a little bit more time to finish my research on this. It’s going to be really cool if you’re a subscriber to that newsletter. But guys, be careful here. There’s a lot of uncertainty. There’s a lot of things you can’t measure that analysts are used to modeling, and they can’t. When Apple removes its complete guidance, when you don’t know if all those suppliers are supplying the Foxconn plants where they could build these phones, nobody knows. Nobody knows.
Frank Curzio: And to invest under these conditions where someone’s telling you, “Whoa, this company’s down to 11 times, 12 times earnings.” Do not believe that multiple. That’s where you got in trouble during the credit crisis. Those multiples are meaningless until these companies report and tell you want’s going on. Until they say, “Well, it’s going to impact our business by 30%.” You could model for that. By 40%, you could model for that. When they say, “We don’t know,” like Apple and so many other companies that have warned, which I told you, hundreds of companies are going to warn, more than any time during the credit crisis. You just don’t know. And I don’t care who you are, how great of a market caller are you, your track record, just be careful here. Just be careful. It’s not time yet. And I’ll let you know when we’re seeing more transparency, more clarity of the markets. Invest in really good situations that are not going to really get crushed or that are down and don’t have as much exposure to this virus.
Frank Curzio: Again, I’ll guide you through this. I’ll help you out. But do not jump in. You can test the waters a little bit, I hear you. You’ve seen stocks down. Especially you’ve seen big market decline on Tuesday. I get it. But to go all in and think that the worst is over is absolutely crazy. So just be careful.
Frank Curzio: Hey guys, you’re not a subscriber and want to learn more about the coronavirus? Just go to by website, curzioresearch.com, a free 19 page report. I don’t know if you’re going to find a free report with that much details on everything you need to know, from the sectors, stocks to avoid, how much further we can come down from here. Lots of good information in there, even stuff that you’re not really reading in the media, which is awesome. But it’s absolutely for free, definitely worth the read. And you could get that report by going to curzioresearch.com.
Frank Curzio: So guys, that’s it for me. Man, long podcast, great guest. But thanks so much for listening. As always, really appreciate the support and the e-mails coming in. I really do. Love you guys. I’ll see you in seven days. Take care.
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P.S. I recently released a special issue of Curzio Research Advisory… breaking down the truth about how the coronavirus will impact the global economy… the names and sectors to avoid… and my two favorite strategies to protect yourself from imminent market pain. Learn how to access this information and protect your portfolio today.