You’ve got to take what the market gives you.
Genia Turanova, editor of Unlimited Income and Moneyflow Trader here at Curzio Research, breaks down the current market environment from a macro level—including why valuations could remain elevated for the foreseeable future, given the actions of the Fed.
We discuss the role interest rates play in valuations… which sectors to watch as economic lockdowns are lifted… and how investors can generate yield in today’s tough environment. And, since we all know the market can turn on a dime, Genia also shares the proper way to hedge your portfolio. [27:55]
Then, Daniel and I discuss the incredible results from Lowe’s… the housing market… rising interest yields… Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent Q&A… and of course, bitcoin. [58:14]
Wall Street Unplugged | 762
This is why 90% of investors get smoked
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews, and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Main Street.
Frank Curzio: What’s going on out there? It’s February 24th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. You know by now, because I pitch it all the time, that we have a Curzio Research YouTube page. So, go there, subscribe to it. We do all of our videos now, our interviews, everything. So, if you are watching this through that, which a lot of you watch through iTunes, you can go there and watch Curzio Research, and go to our YouTube page.
Frank Curzio: But I have a Penn State shirt on, a Penn State t-shirt. And my best friend, Zach, got that for me. I’ve known him since I was three years old, believe it or not. So, he visited the campus, because his daughter got accepted to the college. And 95%… She’s going there, so he did a very, very good thing, and bought me a Penn State t-shirt. You could see it pretty good. I’ll show you a couple different views here. If it’s here, we got cameras all over here with our views, and stuff like that.
Frank Curzio: But two things, one is, it was a big step for him, because he’s a huge Michigan fan. So, we used to talk crap or whatever, when they play each other. And this year, both teams were so frigging horrible, it was a joke. So, it was kind of funny. But the second thing is, my buddy, Zach, does pretty well. He owns like all of Queens, New York, and he buys me a t-shirt. Come on, a t-shirt? I mean, I thought he sent me a signed football from Saquon Barkley or something. But anyway, congratulations. I want to give his daughter a shout for getting to Penn State. And congratulations for buying me the shirt, even though he hates Penn State, which now, because his daughter goes there, he’s going to have to become a fan, so they could watch the games together.
Frank Curzio: So, let’s being with this. In 1998, I was working for my dad. He had his own firm called FXC Investors Corp, where he was managing money at the time. And he also wrote a newsletter for over 25 years. I’ve said this numerous times. A lot of you know this. Now, my dad was the only person who called the 1987 market crash in writing. I mean, it’s kind of like, once things happen, everybody says they called it, kind of like the housing crisis. Did you notice that everybody called it? Everybody called it, now. Everybody called it. After the fact, everybody called it. Yeah, right.
Frank Curzio: But I published this newsletter, and posted it on Twitter @FrankCurzio. You could see it, and I’m also bringing it up right now, because it’s relevant to my story here. And you could see it, and this is his newsletter. And I have a… You can follow this on Twitter if you want to. I posted it on Twitter as well, again, @FrankCurzio. But this is his October 1987 update, which came out September 25th, and it’s titled Crash. And it says, “We’re now in a bear market. Dow above 2,700.” It said, “Over 21 times earnings,” sound familiar? That’s kind of where we are right now. “Approximately two instances over a book value.” It talks about massive loans outstanding from the so-called LDCs, which is less developed countries, exceeding $400 billion. Remember when $400 billion was a big number? That’s nothing now. That’s chump change.
Frank Curzio: It talks about the huge federal budget deficit, things that we’re seeing today. And he said, “Three crashes occurred.” Let me bring this up now. I’ll show you guys. So, here’s the crash call. And this is his newsletter. The newsletter say, “Three crashes occurred in October.” In October, that was 1929, 1978, 1979. So, we’re going into October. It says, “This month’s crash could be worse than the prior three crashes combined.” It said that less than three weeks before the market crashed. And he goes on and talks about it, and this is cool. Again, it’s nice to see these old newsletters, because there was no internet back then.
Frank Curzio: It says that, “90% of our research is based on fundamental, not technical, analysis. We would defer purchasing most stocks at this time. Since 1929, stocks have never been turbulently, fundamentally over-valued as now.” And he goes on to say, “The entire free world’s economic foundation is showing signs of cracking, an earthquake that may spread its fault from Los Angeles to Japan, and Wall Street.” He calls it the Financial Triangle. And then, he has a little chart, which is really interesting. And he shows October 24th, or October 29th, 1929, how the market crashed 47%. October 29, this is in ’32. So, ’29 to ’32, also the market crashed, 89%. And then, he has the time dates, 10/1/87. Remember, it crashed like three weeks later, through… And he’s calling it for the month, through November, that the market is going to crash, and he has question marks of how much it’s going to crash.
Frank Curzio: So, it’s still one of the best newsletters, and of course, I’m biased here. But it’s really one of the best newsletters, one of the best calls, I’ve ever seen. Because so many people say, “They saw this coming. They saw that coming,” and everything. But reality, when you have it in writing, and… It was a big deal. It was a really big deal. Because back then, remember, no internet, no nothing. You had to go to the library to research reports. People had Cotrons back then. That was the technology that they used to get a couple quotes. And there was only a handful in CBC, when that started, that investors followed. It’s not like it is today. All right, so there was Mario Gabelli, Abby Cohen, Louis Navellier, Jim Cramer, and my dad was one of them, about 10, 12 people.
Frank Curzio: But today, we have literally hundreds of analysts on TV, just shouting to the rooftops, most of them promoting whatever they own. And again, back then, it’s not like today, where we have egotistical idiots that don’t give a shit about the small investor calling for a crash every year since the credit crisis, in order to get more Twitter followers, and sell more books. And then you know what happens. When the market pulls back 10%, they take a victory lap, even though the market is up 250% from when they first had that call, which is… That’s the changing of the times, right? Who cares? Sorry about that mini rant.
Frank Curzio: But going through that 1987 crash, my dad was prepared. He was hedged. He shorted the market. Probably his biggest score in his career, because during those times, everyone, everyone, everyone was super bullish. And you have all these people leaning to one side, that side of the pendulum, where you’re able to get in at incredible price when that happens. You’re able to buy stuff when nobody wants it, whether he’s shorting it, or going long.
Frank Curzio: A good example, think Michael Burry and Mark Bound. Those guys made a fortune off the credit crisis, picking the housing bubble. They did their research. They were able to short housing, and actually, it was so bad they created their own products. I don’t know if you know that. I think that’s… If you read the book, they created their own products through some of these investment firms, so they could leverage their position and short the housing bubble. And Goldman-Sachs says, “Sure, you want to do this? No problem.” They’re like, “Housing never crashes. It never, ever crashes,” but they did their homework, and they knew. There was so much leverage in the market. But that’s what happened when you make the most money, when you see a market, or you’re investing in a major event that nobody sees coming. Remember that point, I’m going to bring it back later.
Frank Curzio: For example, you could make money on Tesla by buying it now, like Cathie Wood just did. She added to her position in Tesla. It came back a little bit. It’s down 20%, but she’s not going to make a killing on that $170 million, not with Tesla at this price. It could double, I don’t know. Tesla couple triple and quadruple the way that stock trades. But you get my drift where there’s a pretty big difference where you’re buying Tesla at $750, $800, compared to buying it at $40. And Cathie, ARK Investments, she was early to investment. Baron, their fund, Baron has been a huge supporter of that, again, at $30s and $40s, amazing. But that’s how you make the most money. Again, I’m going to bring back that point later on.
Frank Curzio: But getting back to my dad, after the crash, he saw tons of people get wiped out. They were on margin. Old friends that lost contact with him suddenly were calling him asking him, “What should we do?” Because they got destroyed. They thought they were smarter than everybody. And living through that event, the emotions you see when something dramatic happens, it changes you forever. Think about it, maybe you got into a car crash, or a major skiing accident. I mean, the next time you drive or ski, you’re going to be super cautious, because you’re well aware of the consequences, because you just lived through that. You lived through it personally.
Frank Curzio: Now, fast forward to 1998. This is when I was working with my dad. This was the internet boom. Tech stocks were surging, and they were surging for a couple years now. And I’m going to bring up a chart to show you this, while I just shout numbers at you. But it’s going to be very important. I promise you, I’ll make this very interesting. So, here’s a NASDAQ chart, going back to the ’80s. But let’s look at the 90’s here. So, when you’re looking at 90’s, the NASDAQ from 1993, okay? Let’s say around 1,200, 1993, 1,200. Just to put that 1,200 in perspective, it’s 13,000 today, pretty close to 13,000 today, just for perspective. But it went from 1,200 to 3,000 by 1998. All right, so a nice move here, 3,000, 1998, April 1998. That’s 150% gain in five years, 30% annualized returns, which is incredible over a five year period.
Frank Curzio: And we didn’t have a lot of exposure to technology. So for me, I’m like, “Hey, Dad, we need exposure to this.” I’m just showing you this chart here, which I’m going to bring up. I’m just showing you where the NASDAQ was, and how it surged, and came back down. But when you see this event, and you see what’s going on, they were taking off. They were absolutely taking off. So, and it’s most technology. It’s mostly the NASDAQ. And I’m looking at this going, “Hey, Dad, you know what? We really need to get into this. We have to get into this. I mean, this internet thing is real. Let’s get exposure to the sector,” as we’re seeing .com IPOs going up 100% in weeks. And nobody wants to hear about, “Hey, buy, hold, make 12% a year,” which is an amazing return. Nobody wants to hear that, just like they don’t want to hear that in today’s market.
Frank Curzio: So, we created a Top 10 Tech Newsletter, where I recommended technology stocks. Well, I know my dad was just pretty much setting me up to learn a valuable lesson. He’s like, “Go ahead, you start it. See what happens.” Now, a lot of people forget this, but from July to August of ’98, the NASDAQ crashed. In 1998, it crashed. It fell more than 20%, 3,000 to below 2,400, and that 20% correction was a month. It happened quick, and it turned out to be a head fake. So, nobody really cared. So, nobody talks about it. They just talk about this massive run up. It was like, “Whoa, here it comes.” And it didn’t really continue. Just… It was a head fake. It only happened for a month.
Frank Curzio: And I remember my dad saying, “Listen, be careful, because this is not going to last forever. These returns are going to be doing this for decades. It’s not going to last forever.” So me at the time, being young, I’m like, “You know what, Dad? You don’t know what you’re talking about. We need to buy more here on this pullback, but I’m smarter than you. I know what I’m doing.” Again, I’m smarter than my dad. I’ve been an analyst for a few years, when he’s been doing this for decades. Of course, that was my ego talking. From August, ’98, the NASDAQ started another major move higher. It surged to 3,500 by year end. That’s the year end of 1998, amazing gain. So, 3,500, and then doubled again in 1999. And that was pretty much in 1999 through February 2000, which was a top. It went to 7,000. That’s how high it went. That’s extended it is. Lots of lessons to learn here.
Frank Curzio: When you see bubbles, bubbles usually go a lot further than people think, just like downturns. That pendulum usually swings well, well over before we see that adjustment. So, a lot of people, a lot of good investors could be early to their calls. But 7,000 it went to. And of course, I’m sitting at the top of the world. I’m the genius. I’m amazing. Everyone is making money, and I’m young at the time. You’re supposed to feel that way, just like young investors feel today. But it only lasted a little while. So, NASDAQ peaked in March. I think it was 7,200, and then came the crash. Now, this crash wasn’t like the recent ones we had from 2008 or last year, 2020, which some of you have lived through, a young investor.
Frank Curzio: Because when you see those markets or those times compared to internet crash, when the market crashed after 2000, it was a two and a half year crash where it fell tremendously. It felt like it was going down every single day. There was no… The Fed wasn’t like, “Hey, this market is going down 25%. Let’s throw a trillion dollars at it.” There was nothing of that. No one even thought of doing that back then. But it was long. It was painful. Two and a half years is a long time. I mean, nowadays, with the internet and everything, TikTok, I mean, 30 seconds is a long time, and even in five seconds. It’s a different world. Two and a half years, the NASDAQ fell, eventually bottomed at 1,700. So, the NASDAQ crash, keep in mind, this is a major index. We’re not talking about a stock. This is a major index that fell by 76%.
Frank Curzio: Several of those top 10 technology stocks in my newsletter went under. All of those went down 80%, 90%. It was basically a complete wipe out. And for me, I had my tail between my legs. No idea what happened. I felt like a truck just ran over me. I’m like, “What happened?” I had no idea what happened. I lost my own money. And more importantly, my subscribers who followed me for that newsletter, I lost them money, and I let them down. But there’s several lessons to learn from this, and hopefully I could pound this into your brain. I’m going to try. It’s probably not going to work, but I’m going to try.
Frank Curzio: One is, my dad was a pretty smart man. He knew I was going to fuck up, sorry for cursing. But he let me make my own mistakes. He knew it was going to happen, and said, “The only way you’re going to learn is if this happens to you personally.” And that lesson, pretty much one of the most valuable in terms of my investing career, because I learned about risk, and how you have to control risk, why that’s important. And of course, if you manage other people’s money, and leverage 30 to one, you’re going to make as much money as you can. That’s what so many hedge funds do. They leverage other people’s money. But I’m talking about you, the average investors. I mean, you have to limit your risk, because once you lose that money, it’s gone. You can’t do in it. You’re gone. And the timing is terrible, because the market is crashing, and you want to have dry powder. It’s the best time to buy stocks.
Frank Curzio: But for me, it was a valuable lesson, because I lived through it. My emotions were involved. I lost my own money. I let my customers down. And those emotions that you experience, I can’t explain it. But it crushes you. Now, in the past few years, we’ve seen the markets surge. Of course, that was until March, when the pandemic hit, COVID. And then, in recent months, a lot of young investors started getting into the markets. They downloaded Robinhood, the best app ever, easy to use, free trading. They changed the entire industry, because everyone wants free trading after that. They joined blogs like Reddit, Wall Street Bets, where everyone is pumping ideas. Good for them, many of those names they’re pumping gone up 2X, 3X, 5X, up tremendously. It’s all fun. This trend sounds kind of familiar, a little familiar to the tech bubble.
Frank Curzio: Because then, we saw GameStop, AMC, United Airlines, heavily shorted names. We saw these names surge. I think GameStop hit $500 for a brief period, $500. It was trading in single digits like four or five months before that. And it went up so high, not because GameStop is a great company, but because it became one of the greatest short squeezes of all time, a stock where the percent that was short of the float was 140%. You don’t have 100%, 140%, that’s how leveraged they were, and also put Melvin Capital out of business, again, a hedge fund leveraging other people’s money, and they got caught out there. And they had to get bailed out for like two and a half billion dollars. It’s always nice being a hedge fund. Yeah, some of these guys have some of their money in it, but all this money is someone else’s. It’s a lot easier to do that, because if you’re right, you’re going to make a fortune. If not, hey, you’re going to be able to start another fund next year, and everyone is going to forget. That’s Wall Street. It sucks. That’s the way it is, but it’s the truth.
Frank Curzio: But in the past few weeks, what have we seen? GameStop go from $350 to under $50. AMC fall, Tesla fell by 20%, Tilray down 50% from its highs. And I know a lot of investors, and some emails that I’ve got bought these names near their highs. That’s the FOMO, fear of missing out. The problem is, your fear of missing out, the last people that get in get destroyed. And unfortunately, that’s usually a lot of people. They’re just programmed to think that these things are going to go up forever. They talk to their friends, and they’re like, “Oh, I made so much money on this. I made so much money on that. I made so much money on this.” And they’re like, “Damn, I got to get in this, man. These guys are making so much money.” And they wind up getting rotated, and they get crushed. They get destroyed.
Frank Curzio: So no, a lot of these investors bought names near their highs, again, thinking they’ll go up forever. And you might be right when it comes to Tesla, or some other electric vehicle stocks, or the streaming giants, the Netflix. They continue to go higher and higher. But if you’re looking at GameStop particularly, I hear a lot of young investors, and this is people who follow me on @FrankCurzio, Twitter, or YouTube. And yeah, I see them on social media networks, “I’m holding GameStop forever. I’m holding it forever.” It’s a symbol that we could be just as powerful as Wall Street, even though they can’t. And I know Melvin Capital is a good example, but you know how many hedge funds, which no one is talking about, shorted the shit out of GameStop at $300, $200, and $100, and made a fortune? A lot. You don’t hear that story. It’s not interesting.
Frank Curzio: So, when you just hear one fund, which is a $12.5 billion dollar fund, Melvin Capital gets nailed, that’s really a very, very tiny amount, considering it’s a trillion dollar industry. But yeah, it’s a great story. “Hey, we beat Wall Street.” The young guys beat Wall Street, that’s fantastic, but you have to be careful. Because when it comes to GameStop, and saying you’re going to hold it forever, and I don’t care if I’m down, it’s a terrible mindset, considering the asset you own, GameStop, is basically worthless. So, it’s this business model of selling video games through big box outlets is obsolete. Well, it’s becoming obsolete. Many games can be downloaded straight from consoles. And for those who still feel the need to go into a store and buy a game, you have Walmart, Target in every single town. So, unless they change their business model, get into whatever it is, that’s different. But the current business model right now, the company is basically worthless.
Frank Curzio: So, you’re holding onto a worthless asset just to prove a point, and that point is going to be is that you’re going to get your ass handed to you from Wall Street, and lose a lot of money, because your ego is involved. Now, that’s not a bad thing, because as a young investor, you have plenty of working power. You’re going to be generating a lot more money. You’re going to be smarter. And as that young investor, from me, the only way you learn about that kind of risk is by going through those tough times yourself. You can’t read about it in books, how the market wiped out everyone, and past crashes, and don’t be leveraged, and how you need to be… You could read that, but it’s not the same thing.
Frank Curzio: I mean, it’s like explaining to people how fucked up Vietnam was, because you read a few books about it. But imagine talking to a veteran who actually fought in that war, took on fire, watched members of their platoon getting killed. I mean, it’s a totally different experience than just reading a book. So, as much as I say I want to teach young investors, I want to help you guys to get better, and better, and better, when we have a market like today, outside of last week, when stocks are surging, going through the roof, everyone is making money, it’s real difficult. It’s not easy, because you haven’t lived through a crash. You haven’t lost all your money to where you can’t sleep, wondering, “What the hell am I going to do?” Those emotions are so important.
Frank Curzio: I mean, just to be clear, I’m not predicting a crash here. I mean, super low interest rates probably forever. They say through 2022. It’s going to be a lot longer than that. Long-term, rates are going higher, but the Fed, if they go meaningfully higher, they’re going to implement yield curve control. They have to. We have too much debt, and this isn’t just… I called this for a while, I think it’s going to happen, but we have some of the bond investors in the world who said, “Yes, they could implement yield curve control. It’s probably going to happen.” We have trillions of seamless, still coming into the market, even past stimulus brokers, you still have money that hasn’t come into the market yet. Which means what? It’s going to cause assets to continue to inflate, like housing.
Frank Curzio: I don’t know if you saw Lowes comp numbers, up 28% year over year. Comp number, are you kidding? Compared to last 28% year over year. Holy cow, it’s insane. I mean, that’s… You’re taking out the nine month period really from the pandemic, 28%. This comparable call to the last comparable call a year ago, unbelievable. Did you see Toll Brothers results yesterday? Blew the out. You’re going to see art, collectibles, equities continue to rise, but not to the point where every equity, you should just buy at any price. I mean, Lucid Motors, and that deal, it was a $20 billion valuation proforma results, $20 billion valuation for company that doesn’t even have an electric car on the market yet. Are you kidding me? That’s awesome. $20 billion for a company where we generate more revenue because of researching these guys, $20 billion. It’s just, start… or just make announcements right?
Frank Curzio: Now, a publicly traded company, we’re a CEO token, just say, “Hey, we’re going to build spaceships that run on batteries, that have extra green features in them. It’s hit every single market, and then we’re going to have cameras all over with cloud capabilities, and AI.” And you know what? Our CEO token will be worth $10 billion. That’s the way the market is, it’s crazy. Obviously, I’m exaggerating a little bit here, but not too much. You’re seeing valuations in this. But we saw Lucid Motors get hit. We saw a lot of these names get hit. And we’re going to continue to see pullbacks among certain sectors and stocks that have run up too fast.
Frank Curzio: So, when you want to remain bullish, or fully invested, since again, we have very favorable market conditions that are going to be here for a while. But if you want to remain bullish, you need to learn how to protect yourself, even if it’s just a little bit. I know it’s hard. It’s pedal to the metal. I want all or nothing. You want to buy the stock at the absolute low and sell at the absolute high, which absolutely never happens. But that’s what you want. Most people buy at the highest price, and sell at the lowest price. That’s the way our brains are programmed. But the greed factor kicks in, you think you’re a genius, and you want more. But you need to protect yourself.
Frank Curzio: Because like my dad, after the markets crashed, and the dust settled, he was one of the few that was still standing. He built his company up and prospered. Business started to surge, because he was prepared. And the biggest lesson here, guys, the biggest lesson, he was sitting on a huge cash pile. The market crashed. What does that mean? You could buy assets that were dirt cheap. That’s what the greatest investors do. They did it in 2001 after the tech crashed. They did it in 2009 with hedge funds, and private equity funds. We’re able to buy real estate assets, these structured investments from European banks, even some US banks for pennies on the dollar, pennies on the dollar.
Frank Curzio: Look at Fannie and Freddie getting all that real estate. They’re making so much money, Fannie and Freddie, they don’t even know what to do with them. They thought, “Oh, we’re going to dissolve these things, conservatorship. They’re done.” They’re making billions in profits, billions, billions, billions on home loans and everything. But during that time, the governments go overboard, and they say they got to unload risk to these banks. And they force them to sell these assets. And the people with money get to buy it for pennies on the dollar. That’s what the best investors do. Einhorn, Ackman, Loeb, Icahn, Buffett, numerous examples of these guys doing it. They always get super aggressive during downturns, since they have money to buy assets that become incredibly discounted.
Frank Curzio: That’s why it’s very, very important to hedge yourself. Maybe you had yourself 2%, 3%, or 5% of your portfolio. What does that mean? When the market crashes, there’s 3% to 5% that you’re hedging, could become 25% to 30% since the gains could easily be 3X to 10X, if you hedge the right way. And if you’re wrong on your hedge, you lose 2% to 3% of your portfolio. Big deal, you know why? Because all your long positions are surging. You’re going to be up 10%, 15% in the market, especially in today’s markets over the past couple years.
Frank Curzio: But you’re hedging yourself just in case, because again, when the market does come down, and you’re seeing some technology companies get hit, those who are left standing, those who… Look at, you could say Cathie Wood. Tesla came down, hey, we have money. We have cash on the sidelines, and they added to their position. I don’t know if that’s more about ego. I don’t know if I’d buy that big of a position, which may not be that big for a company of ARK Investments. But still, you’re being it after it gets crushed. You could buy Bitcoin when it goes to maybe $40,000, $35,000, who knows where it’s going to go? But I know the underlying trends look extremely favorable. We’ll talk about that later on.
Frank Curzio: But that’s what you want to do. I mean, look back at housing. Imagine if you purchased a home in 2010, ’11, ’12, after the market crashed. Imagine you purchased the market… Some of these stocks you went long on, some of these great companies in April of last year. I mean, you’re up probably 3X, 4X, 5X, and still, a lot of people got murdered, and they’re sitting there going, “Wow, I have no money left,” when it’s one of the greatest buying opportunities that they’ll find, and when it comes to hedging, it’s not easy.
Frank Curzio: So, I’m glad we have one of the best analysts, Curzio Research, that can walk you through this, and teach you exactly how to hedge. And that’s, Genia Turanova, who runs our Moneyflow Trader newsletter at Curzio Research. I’m proud of this product. I love this product. It focuses on buying long data puts, which is very simple to do, and helps hedge your portfolio. So, she also runs our Limited Income product, which is not your typical income newsletter, because it focus not just on the high ceiling stocks, but companies that are growing first is the key. And then, you look to see if they’re paying a nice yield. Because it makes no sense to buy a company that’s yielding 6% if it’s not growing, and the stock falls 20% in a year. Again, it makes that dividend kind of meaningless, right?
Frank Curzio: And in that newsletter, just eight positions, the last eight positions are all in the green. She’s doing very, very well. This is going to be a great interview. Genia is super smart, definitely listen up. She’s been a great addition to my team. And let’s get to the interview right now. Genia Turanova, thank you so much for coming on Wall Street Unplugged again.
Genia Turanova: Oh, thank you very much. I’m so happy to be talking to you. Today is a fun day in the market.
Frank Curzio: I know, I know, right? We’re seeing the market really come down, which… We’ll get to your Moneyflow Trader portfolio, which is used as a hedge. But of course, the market has been surging right now. But now, we’re going to see a lot of demand for it, obviously. But I want to talk first, because you have an economics background, in what’s going on with the stock market. Because we’re seeing things, and it’s hard to explain to people for the first time that, I don’t know if I can teach a young investor anything when they’re buying stocks with no earnings, or SPACs that are coming out of… taking over companies at $20 billion valuations with no products on the market yet. It’s tough to tell them to take it easy when a lot of these things are going up 3X, 4X, 5X. But as we’re seeing right now in the market, we’re seeing a major correction. What’s your view in the markets, and even the economy? And is it a sector rotation thing, or are you nervous right now for the whole market to come down? But let me hear your thoughts, because I love when you talk about the macro point of view, and I know at least a lot of ideas for everybody.
Genia Turanova: From the macro point of view, the market doesn’t look too scary, only because of the interest rates that they are artificially low, and because of the enormous amount of money that’s been released into the economy. There is two sides to this money equation. There’s a lot of extra money that was, “Printed.” The Fed’s balance sheet has been… It’s almost doubled over the past year. And the last time it did double in a short period of time was during the Great Recession. So, it is a big deal for the market support, and it’s also very different from anything where we really have experience with, because of the low interest rates. Money is free. Rates are low, money is free, do whatever you want. It’s not going to last forever, but low rates does support the economy, does support the market, and it gives you a feeling that you’ll be fine for a long time, which is not likely the case. At some point, it will balance out a little bit, like it did in the past three months, too.
Genia Turanova: I think it was a little bit of a rotation, with energy surging, what, 30% or more? And the utilities declining 5%, I think, over the past three months. And the market was up 9% with energy as a setup, 33%, 34%, and the financials up 20%. So, it’s not like you buy just anything, and it will go up, even over the past three months, you buy something, save, and it would be doubled. That speaks volumes to what you just said about the young investor, just throw money at the market, and it will do well for you. I really don’t think it’s the case long term.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, so let’s talk about that. Because I guess the big question, everyone wants to know when will it happen? Because we can really say the last 20% move higher before the recent decline this week that the same factors were in place, low interest rates, free money. And eventually, when does valuation matter? And that’s a tough question. I don’t know how to answer it, but when does valuation matter? Because it could be the same argument. I’m always worried about when people are buying the market for the same exact reason they bought it 20% ago, or buying a stock for the same reason… Because it seems like a lot of that is factored in. But we’re seeing long-term rates go higher. Is that something? I mean, we could always have yield curve control coming from the Fed, which they did in the past. But what could be the catalyst that really pushes us down? And maybe that’s what we’re seeing right now. We go, “We’re down a little bit compared to how much we’ve come up.” But I guess everybody wants to know, including me, and it’s hard to determine is when is that timeframe? When are valuations really going to matter again?
Genia Turanova: I can’t tell you that. I cannot give you the sure answer. The only sure answer is that this time is not different. It may be slightly different. The environment has changed. So, the normal normalized valuation may be a little bit higher than we’re used to. So in a sense, it’s different. But it’s not different in the sense that whether the market valuation matters. Because if equities represent ownership, they don’t want to buy anything that’s priced $100, $200, $300, annual future income. Do you want to own any asset that will potentially return something to you in a normal way, in 300 years? Probably not. So eventually, this will all balance out a little bit, maybe with free money, your timeline for how much you’re giving to yield per your equity to pay your bet, your timeline will expand. But again, the question is, by how much?
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and to be fair, I mean, it just is a tough question, because I’m trying to figure it out, too, where you think you’re smart taking profits, and you’ll see a stock double when it was really expensive. But now, we’re seeing… Talk about where it’s not all stocks. So, we’re seeing the ESG stocks, environment, battery related stocks in the major growth trend, especially in the SPAC area. These things have taken off tremendously, but we are seeing a rotation. We’re actually seeing, even in the market today, where the financial are coming back. The cyclicals have done well this week, right? These are plays on the economy, where you’re just seeing the NASDAQ get crushed in a lot of growth stocks, and those are the fan favorites. Tesla, down more than 20%. And that’s a lot of people talking but-
Genia Turanova: In two days.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, I know, right? And there are things that are working here. So, talk about the rotation here, and maybe cyclicals. But it’s not so much where I think so many people, they look at the market as a whole, and say, “Oh, I got to get out.” But a lot of individual names are actually performing pretty well over the past five days, if you’re in the right areas, right?
Genia Turanova: Absolutely. What I think is happening, and it might be just the beginning of the process is by the rumor of selling news kind of environment. So, we will all have been buying the rumor for the past nine months, the reopening. It’s not really a rumor, it’s happening. We don’t know exact… Again, the exact timeline is not clear, but we know we are reopening. We know the economy is coming back. We know that it’s coming back strong. We know for sure that we’re going to beat it. So, that’s not the rumor per se, but it’s a rumor in the sense that you want to be ahead of the market, ahead of the trend, and everything that was a reopen trade has been bought.
Genia Turanova: Now, we’re seeing selling the news kind of environment, when we do understand that the vaccine is working. We do understand that it may not be as fast as we would like it to be, but in 2021, we will probably be significantly over this, by the end of the year. So again, another 10 months, give or take. So again, it’s selling the news kind of environment. You don’t want to guess when the buy the rumor, sell the news will change. You want to have a little bit of both. But I think that’s what’s happening.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, yeah, I know. It definitely makes sense to me. And I want to turn everyone’s attention over to Moneyflow Trader, because this is one of my favorite newsletters at Curzio Research. And when you took this over, I mean, the timing was really, really good, because we saw the market absolutely crash. And this is just a portion of this, but most of it is you’re buying puts for protection. And of course, you’re buying puts, you’re betting a stock is… You’re not going short, so you could only lose the amount of money you put up. But with a crazy market like this, and how nuts it is, when you saw the market really come down tremendously in March, April, starting in February, you saw positions go up 100%, 200%, even 500%. But now, it’s a bull market in every single thing in the world before this week.
Frank Curzio: So of course, that portfolio is going to take… But explain to people, and I try to do it, but I want to hear it from you as well is, what this portfolio is meant to do. Because when I look at it from a hedge point of view, it’s so important in this market. I understand that, especially now, this week, people are like, “Wow.” But explain that part of the newsletter of using it as a hedge, which is something I do for my own portfolio.
Genia Turanova: Right. So, I do believe in the market. I do believe in the market wisdom, and I do believe that over time, markets do move higher. And that’s really the basic rule for making money in the market, not being persuaded that now it’s going to tend to be a bear market, you get out, sit in cash, and you’ll be fine. I think you should be invested. And to be invest in a difficult environment like this one, everything can turn on a dime, it depends on the Fed support. The Fed has been pledging support, but again, it’s already in the news. It’s already priced in.
Genia Turanova: In a crazy environment like this, when any kind of recovery is already priced in, anything can happen, not to mention given something like last year, which almost exactly a year ago it had a market high. And then, we experienced the fastest bear market on record. You can’t prepare during the bear market, especially as fast as it appears that it’s been coming on lately. You can’t prepare during decline. Volatility goes up, everything is super expensive, and you can’t really buy a hedge unless you did it ahead of time, or benefit from the hedge. You can buy it, but you are not likely to make money on it, because you’re buying it at a very high price, as we did with a couple of hedges that we didn’t do so well, because we are trying to hedge extra during that decline. And again, that’s just an example of you need to be prepared.
Genia Turanova: And as just to everywhere else, you must diversify. So, you spread your bets across a few positions. Some have high chances of success in the recovery. Some have much better chances of success if we’re stuck in the mire of a not growing economy. So, you have to have a few hedges across the universe of potential… The reason for the market decline. And of course, you want to own a hedge on the super crazy value stocks. Not every single one of them, and not every single of your hedges must be on the super valued stocks, because again, as we just discussed, the high volatility and high valuations may continue for a little time. But again, the more you hedge, the better you can be invested elsewhere. So, if you hedged, you’re actually benefiting from this market upside without… Well, maybe not without devoid in the world, but with better confidence.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and I came to you a few months ago, maybe five months ago, and for me, for our Curzio Research Advisory members, I wanted to provide one of these hedges. So what I did is, we bought a put on Disney, dead wrong. The stock went up tremendously. And what I instructed everybody to do, just to bring in a real example here, and I even consulted you on the trade as well, before I actually did it, because you’re the expert in this field. I said, “Look, this is a trade where you put 2%, 3% of your portfolio in, and this is the most leveraged company to COVID.” So, if everything started reopening, this stock is going to take off, and if not, this stock is going to get nailed.
Frank Curzio: So, what happens is, the recoveries happen, the stock took off, and that’s okay. We lost a full amount of that position, but the rest of our portfolio is surging, because we’re well positioned for everything else. Now, if the market came down, that small 3% position on that option could be worth 10%, 15% of your portfolio if it comes down. And that’s how you hedge with a small amount of money. And I know that process is difficult for people, and people want full upside. And even for Moneyflow Trader, that’s not the only thing you provide Moneyflow Trader, where you have long positions now, too, and structuring a portfolio the right way, which is a great job.
Frank Curzio: But that’s the most important point to me is just taking a small amount of money, being able to hedge. And if you’re right, it’s going to amount to a massive gain. And if you’re wrong, you should make sure everything else in your portfolio is going to benefit. This way that I’m willing to lose 2%, 3% of my portfolio, because everything else is up 15%+, and even more than that during this bull market. I mean, that’s the way I look at it in a real life example.
Genia Turanova: Absolutely. And that’s a good point. Ideally, you don’t want all your trades go point in the same direction. That’s when you can lose a lot.
Frank Curzio: Mm-hmm, yeah. No, absolutely. And for this portfolio, I think right now it’s funny, because I can see people being, “The market has been up, and you can see that reflected in the performance, which is fine.” Now, the market is down, and everyone is like, “Okay, what do we need to do?” Because when you see some of these things, some of these names fall 20% in a couple days, these things could go up 5X, 10X, right away, and that’s a great, great hedge. It makes you feel good, because now you’re not worried about looking at every stock every day, and you’re getting crushed, where if the market comes down, you’re protected.
Frank Curzio: And Genia, you’ve been doing this for a very, very long time. You know a lot of big… This is how the best investors, the hedge funds, this is what they do with their portfolios. And it helps you last in the market, and not get crushed during times when things are bad, and also when times are good, it’s perfectly fine. But getting crushed, you lose everything, you could really get hurt. But this is a strategy used by… I know, you use is by some of the best market professionals out there.
Genia Turanova: Generally speaking, that’s what hedging is. You’re willing to lose 100% on your hedge, if everything else does well. And that’s what we’re trying to do. And yes, absolutely, that’s what the professionals do, and this is what, when I was in business school 20 years ago, I strived to understand. I was like… And then it was down on me. You stay invested. That’s what lets you. That’s what hedging does.
Frank Curzio: No, that’s great, that’s great. I’m just showing a picture over here of Moneyflow Trader, from our Curzio Research site. If you want to learn more, you can go there. But let’s change tunes, because now, Moneyflow Trader is coming into focus with the market coming down. But I’m also going to show this, because you also have Unlimited Income, which is a front end newsletter. So, it’s a low priced newsletter here, Unlimited Income.
Frank Curzio: Tell us a little bit about that product, because it’s something that I really love, because you take a different strategy towards income that I’m very in favor of, where sometimes people will just look at the yield, and look at MLP, or read and it’s paying 6%, 7%, 8%, and they don’t realize that can’t be sustained, especially if the underlying security, the underlying company is not a good company, or maybe not growing. That stock could fall 20%, making that 8% yield absolutely meaningless. You take a really cool approach to this, and even the last, I think it’s eight or nine picks that you’ve made in this portfolio are all in the green, doing very, very well. And again, this seems like this is an area that’s going to see more in-flows into it, and especially in certain companies. But talk about your methodology behind this, this way we could bring everybody in here.
Genia Turanova: Again, we did talk about it, and I love that we’ve shared the same approach that if you want income, you must have prop. What I mean by this is that you can pick the best of this market, stocks that can grow, profits, and by extension, they brought dividends over time. And this way, you don’t lose your principle, well maybe. Again, that’s why you diversify. You can’t promise that you cannot lose your principle on any of the stocks. But again, you stayed diversified among the best of the dividend growth stocks.
Genia Turanova: And this way, you can almost guarantee that your income will go up over time, your principle will be, at the very minimum, safe, or in our situation, that really we did over the past six or seven months, your principle will go up, giving you again, some cushion in case something goes wrong with the market. If you select good stocks, the income will be there, and the principle will maybe give in a little bit, giving you, again, more opportunities to buy, because of your stock selection is all point to safer stocks that can grow dividends, because they do have sustainable business with underlying growth. That’s the only way you can beat inflation, which we all know is coming, and generate some safe income.
Frank Curzio: So, a good example now, because we’re seeing yields start to rise. We had a bunch of… Hundreds of billions, I believe, in negative yielding bonds. So, but interest rates are rising on the long term right now. So, how do you position yourself, because you see that, which again, higher interest rates usually results in taking risk off the table, which is what we’re seeing right now? I don’t know if that’s the cause of the market pulling back while interest rates go higher. But do you look at it as, if interest rates are going higher, you expect inflation? I mean, that seems like a great trade for bank stocks, which pay very high yield, and are still considered cheap, and JP Morgan, I think, is at a new high, but a lot of these names aren’t. I mean, is that a way you will look at it as well? In a higher interest rate environment, you funded it easier, or is it just reallocating, or finding new ideas? But does that change your philosophy at all with interest rates rising?
Genia Turanova: It does change it a little bit, but not as much to change the entire strategy. It would help me to pick my next stock, and the stock after next. Because the market is changing, you must change. And again, you go back with your portfolio, if we could review it and see which of your plays will work out long term, regardless of interest rates, and which are really susceptible to higher rates. I don’t think too many of my positions are susceptible to higher rates, but of course, they’re not immune. We have our utilities that gave in a little bit together with the entire utilities sector. We had the periods that didn’t do as well as the rest of the market, but the rest of our portfolio surged. I had the financial, technology, actually a few technology stocks. I have industrial stock that has done well, and I expect it to do even better in the coming year.
Genia Turanova: So, overall, it’s all about the balance, and it’s all about being in bull, and knowing where you are, and expecting, anticipating some changes, and maybe playing back a little bit of your ideas, and even sell a few that are not going to work out. But all together, if a company is stable, if its profits are growing, if it’s in command of its own destiny, whether you call it franchise, or just a strong growing company, that’s what you want to own.
Frank Curzio: No, that makes a lot of sense. And I guess, let’s get to the fun part, which is people always love ideas. Is there any ideas you could share, maybe even hedging wise, or for Unlimited Income? Because again, everybody always loves ideas. And of course, you’re not going to give away anything that people are paying for, but you also have lots of ideas to always share, which we talk about.
Frank Curzio: And just on a side note, Genia, I’m going to share, the secret is we go back and forth. And you ask for research reports on different companies. And every time you do that, when you ask me for research reports, I’ll send them to you, and there’s… If it’s 15 different companies you’re giving me, there’s probably seven or eight that I’m totally interested in, and then some of them I never heard of. And I was like, “Wait a minute.” And just, it hits my radar, because it’s funny, the areas you look at by asking me that, and saying, “Hey, do you see research reports on this, some sales side for analysts? But I love that part, because it allows me to see what you’re thinking. But it gives me ideas as well. But let’s get to the idea part, this way, we could share that with everybody, if you have anything out there you want to share.
Genia Turanova: Well, sharing is a great thing, as you’ve said. So, I think that one of my long term favorites is something that will continue paying your account in nominal terms, and in the potential price appreciation for a long, long time. It’s a utility. So again, don’t think that it’s not going to do well in the rising interest rate market, because it’s a utility that’s leveraged to one of the main growth trends of this coming year and probably decade. It’s a clean energy utility. It does both. It provides you, Frank, and the rest of your state with electricity, in its regulated part. And it also owns a lot of clean assets all over the country. Yields to percent, nothing’s wrong with that, and can potentially go much higher than it is right now. NextEra Energy is my first pick. That’s the name of the utility. And actually in fact, it is the largest utility in the country. So, there’s nothing too exotic about it. Probably when you saw me asking you for a report, you knew what I was going for with this particular stock.
Frank Curzio: It’s funny. So, NextEra… You did a great job of masking that to the last second. But NextEra Energy, you got everybody excited for a utility. But NEE is the symbol, and it’s a $160 billion market cap. I didn’t even know it was that big until you said it’s one of the largest ones, or is the largest one. And yeah, I didn’t even know they were that big. That’s a monster company. But yeah, that’s awesome. Thank you for sharing that. And what about hedging wise? I mean, you have anything there that people could say, “Hey, you know what? We’ll buy… ” And that doesn’t mean that you have to buy puts or anything, but maybe it’s something that you’re looking to buy that might perform while the market doesn’t do so well.
Genia Turanova: I think one of my best ideas, better ideas, I guess that’s a better way of saying it, is silver. I think silver is a little bit of everything. It’s a precious metal. This is why it will probably continue benefiting from the money printing. It’s an industrial metal. This is why it will continue benefiting from the recovery trade, from reflation trade. And it is also a clean energy metal, useful in solar. So, it’s a three-way play. It’s not as exciting, probably, as the Bitcoin, or the cyber-currencies. But it should do well as a hedge, and it should do well as a recovery play. Silver is a little bit weird, because of its in-the-metal kind of status. It’s a precious metal, and it’s also an industrial metal. But all said, it outperformed the market by a wide margin last year. I think year over year, it’s up about 50% or so. I’ll take that.
Frank Curzio: No, that’s definitely cool. And I know you’ve been early to silver, and you’re saying, “Well, not that exciting,” but I think the Reddit crowd might think differently, right? Because all this silver has been bought and everything. I used to think silver wasn’t exciting either, but apparently it is to the young investors. And these people, some of them are holding long term. It’s just, that was funny you said that, because usually it is gold, and silver, and boring, and old. But to see young investors saying, “Hey, silver.” And again, it is linked to two different things that are really cool right now, right? So, just the trends and the industrial metal part, but also just usually a safe haven and stuff.
Frank Curzio: But all right, Genia. So listen, we covered a lot today. We covered economics, and both of your newsletters. I just want to say that, thank you so much. I love having you work for us. We get great, great emails from you all the time. You are someone who has a ton of credibility, and I’ve seen it, just where… I’ve been in this industry for 25 years, and you see a lot of people where they have losers, and they don’t mention them. You, you’ll talk more about your losers than your winners, and say exactly what you’re going to do. And I think from a subscriber’s point of view, they almost sometimes they’re going to get things wrong, and that’s what they want. They want to know someone has their back, and they’re in their corner. And just the emails that we’re getting, the testimonials can attest to that. So, I just want to say thank you so much for coming on, and giving your analysis. And yeah, Moneyflow Trader, and Unlimited Income guys, you can go our website if you want any more information. But thanks so much, Genia, for coming on. I really appreciate it.
Genia Turanova: Anytime, thank you.
Frank Curzio: All right, guys, great stuff from Genia. And look, Moneyflow Trader… You subscribe to that, you’re going to see some of the positions down, because it’s been a super bull market. You know what? And that’s okay, because it’s used as a hedge, 3%, 4% of your portfolio, where a lot of long positions, especially if you have a subscription to my products, you should be doing very well. You should be up a lot. We’ve had a great, great run. Yes, it’s a bull market, but we’ve had a lot of great, great gains across all the portfolios. And that’s fine.
Frank Curzio: But I can tell you, when the market fell in late February into March with COVID, several of our puts surged 100%, 300%, 500%. And we got emails from subscribers going, “Holy shit. The market is crashing and I’m making money,” and it was awesome. It was great. I love this product. I created it because it helps average investors invest like the pros. We should always be hedged. You want to maximize those gains while taking on as little risk as possible. That’s the goal. And if the goal is to maximize gains, and you don’t care about risk, it’s different. But you have to risk losing your whole investment. You don’t want to do that.
Frank Curzio: We just explained, the best time to invest is when things come down. A good example of that is Tesla, 20% decline. Cathie Wood, ARK Investments, used that to invest, what was it, $170 million or something? MicroStrategy, you see that? A Bitcoin play, it’s done tremendously. And Bitcoin was down, whatever, $57,000, or $45,000. Now, it’s around $50,000 again. It’s not down too much. You get a surge, but MicroStrategy stock went to $1,300. It’s down 40%. So, by hedging yourself, by making sure you have money when things don’t go in your favor, or if the market comes down, and the market will come down, guys. It will. It’s a when, not if. It will, trust me. It will, this is the markets. It’s never this easy to make that much money. But when it does, and you’re protected, you’re going to have money on the sidelines to invest in a lot of assets that are discounted. You might be able to get them for pennies on the dollar. Again, that’s what the great investors do.
Frank Curzio: Now, we’re getting lots of requests for Moneyflow Trader. And for me, I only push our newsletters, again, Curzio Research, we sell news. We’re a business. That’s how we make money, and we provide amazing value for that. We do our best, and have videos with our newsletters and everything. And my job is to not sell the product when things are red, red hot, and everything is great. Because a lot of people do that, and you wind up getting wrecked. I like to sell our products or push products when the timing is right. And we did a great job at that with Curzio Venture Opportunities. Small caps took off. I told you they were going to take off. They did. They surged, and we did fantastic, got into so many great names.
Frank Curzio: And then, crypto, four or five months ago, I mean, hopefully… I mean, some of those gains are just insane. I know some of those positions came down the past week, but we were up over 10X on three positions, and I think 10 of 14 were up between 300% and 700% or something. It was insane. It was insane. That’s my job. That’s what I want to do. I want to show you profits, because if I do, you’re going to subscribe to more products, and you’re going to part of our brand for the next 20, 30 years. That’s the point.
Frank Curzio: Moneyflow Trader, now is the time. And to help you guys out, you go to our website. There’s going to be a banner there. It’s not there now, so I’m going to tell my team to do that. And I will put a 50% discount on it for anyone that wants to subscribe. You’re going to be in good hands with Genia. She’s an awesome analyst, but what I’m seeing right now in the market with so many of these technology stocks, these high flyers are selling off tremendously. It gives you an opportunity to really, really make a lot of money, and also hedge yourself as the market comes. I mean, it’s buying puts, long data puts. That’s not the only thing. She also buys calls in it, and option strategies. She’s very, very simple. She goes through it very easily. You could do it from your eTrade account, or whatever.
Frank Curzio: But if you want to take advantage of that, I’ll have it up probably for the next five, 10 days or so. And it’s a 50% discount, Moneyflow Trader. The banner is on our site, curzioresearch.com. It’s going to be up there. It’s the only place you’re going to see the discount if you want it. If you want to subscribe, fine. If not, no worries. But I would do it over the next 10 days, because I’ll offer you a 50% discount. Because I really want people to learn how to hedge, especially in this market, because it is getting dangerous out there.
Frank Curzio: Now, so much going on, and you guys know the format by now. I’m going to bring in my buddy, Daniel Creech, Senior Research Analyst, Curzio Research, whose birthday was yesterday. Happy birthday, Daniel.
Daniel Creech: Hey, thank you, yeah, another trip around the sun. That’s exciting, halfway to 70. That’s good stuff.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, so we had a subscriber write in and said… And this is on Twitter, Jake. He started watching the video stream version of the podcast, and, “I was about to spit out my drink for the first time I saw Daniel, and he wasn’t a cowboy.” He didn’t know…
Daniel Creech: Well, with all the shooting stories, and being from the Midwest and all that. You know what’s funny is that I lived in Montana for several years, and one of my good, good friends out there is an actual cowboy. In fact, when I was on the podcast two years ago, when I was in Vegas, I was there for the National Final Rodeo. So yeah, I know him, but no, that’s funny. No, I am not the redneck cowboy that I come across as, that I am at heart anyway.
Frank Curzio: No, that was funny. I love that. And I love just the comments that we get. Sometimes, we read them if they’re negative, just to have fun with it. But it’s really cool. But the bottom line is, guys, we’re here working hard, really trying to help you guys out. And there’s a lot of things going on in the market. And I guess, Daniel, let’s start with Bitcoin. I mean, we’re seeing massive volatility. We saw the bears take a victory lap, even though they’re bearish since $8,000, and it went to $57,000. That’s okay. That’s a different story. But what we recently saw, and this is yesterday, Square said, “When they reported their quota, they bought another $170 million worth of Bitcoin.” You’ve written about this with BlackRock, $9 billion in assets under management. They said they’re looking into investing Bitcoin. Guys, if they invest 100%-
Daniel Creech: They’re dabbling in it. They’re dabbling in it. How funny is that?
Frank Curzio: Yeah, dabbling. Dabbling to them, 1% is $90 billion. That’s a dabble for them. If they’re going to half, $45 billion. That would be… $45 billion is what? About 5% of Bitcoin’s market cap right now? If I look at the cap, it is $49,700. Hold on, I could show them this view where I have the TV. I’m just checking out, doing this live, seeing as everything is going on. But what’s the story with Bitcoin? It seems like… I think it’s very, very bullish that it came down, Daniel, and it came down hard. And you saw buyers come in immediately, but when I hear guys like BlackRock, when I hear some of the biggest hedge fund managers, Ray Dalio talk about it. I mean, these guys are no joke. These aren’t the Melvin Capitals with $12 billion. These guys got hundreds of billions. I mean, trillions. Fidelity is well, trillions into this. I mean, what are your thoughts on it?
Daniel Creech: I just, it’s scary to get so bullish. So yeah, I was welcoming a good pullback. When anybody is texting you or calling you when it drops 10% or 15% or more, that’s good. It needs to get people’s attention, but the paradigm shift here that’s going on, did you see the interview yesterday on CNBC? What’s the MicroStrategy CEO name? I always forget that.
Frank Curzio: Saylor, right? Mike Saylor?
Daniel Creech: Saylor.
Frank Curzio: Yup, mm-hmm.
Daniel Creech: It went across the wire today. They bought another billion dollars or so. We talked about that. They keep buying, like you said, buyers are stepping in. But he made a great argument from his perspective on how people are not going to be trading this. People are looking for value. People are worried about the coming inflation, and the monetary policies continuing for years, and years, and years. Maybe we’ll get to that in a minute with Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen, up in front, and doing some interviews, and Q&A.
Daniel Creech: But he was talking about how the paradigm shift is… If the price drops, these guys are buying more. They’re not going to sell this. MicroStrategy isn’t in this to make 50% or 100% on their return. Square is not in this. These guys are believers. So, it seems too easy, but now the institutions are getting involved. I don’t know how it doesn’t crack six figures sooner than later, and it’s not silly to say this year. Oh gosh, I’m one of those guys. I’m getting into price targets.
Frank Curzio: But it’s hard to argue. When you see so many of… It just makes a better alternative than just keeping your money in cash, marketable securities or whatever. It is an option. And I’m not saying, “Throw all your cash in there.” I think an extreme example is Michael Saylor. And I wouldn’t say Square. I think it’s 5% of their cash position is in it. I don’t know if they have a balance sheet, but 1% cash for some of these companies, I mean again, you saw 8,000+ CEOs sign up for his conference, and that was all about how to do it, how to buy Bitcoin as a corporation, the laws behind it, what you need to do, and a lot of people are interested in it. And this is institutions, guys. Bitcoin has been mostly young people’s currency, and people talking about it. This is institutions. This is real. This is real money. This is when tens of billions in a blink of an eye, where they forgot they invested in Bitcoin. That’s how much money we’re talking about when it comes to these guys. It’s a joke. It’s insane, and that’s how crazy it is. And another thing, Dan, I wanted to talk to you about is…
Daniel Creech: And real quick, but as investors… Sorry, Frank, real quick, there’s going to be a lot of different ways to participate and benefit off of this. So, we’ve talked about Coinbase is gearing up to do an initial public offering, IPO. I think they were the ones behind the Tesla billion and a half dollar buy in Bitcoin. So, we’ll get to dig into those financials, and that’s basically going to be a monopoly once that’s starting. There’s no other exchanges like that going out. So, we’ll see how the market reacts on that. You have a lot of different companies start doing this. You’ll be able to buy funds that have dedicated ETFs and/or anything, other exposure like that. So as an investor, you haven’t missed the boat on Bitcoin. You don’t need to buy Bitcoin directly, but it’s not a stretch to do so.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, and that Coinbase, it’s going to be a game changer for the entire industry. And those are scary tokens, because in order for… They’re an exchange. In order to build that exchange, it’s coming up, I believe, at $100 billion+ valuation, which puts them bigger in terms of market cap than I think all the US exchanges combined, which is insane. So again, a high valuation, but it’s going to bring two things to the forefront, which are two risks that nobody wanted to invest in cryptos, and more regulation. I know if you’re a Bitcoin maniac, you hate that, decentralization. But you need some regulation. You need to know your money is safe. You need to know that it’s protected.
Frank Curzio: And when you go on these outside platforms, you don’t know. I’ve seen people where they just shut down. You lose everything, and you’re done. There’s no number to call on a site, no way. There’s no number anywhere, it’s crazy. But the regulation, and it’s going to be liquidity where now, you’re going to have the IRS in there, where they’re looking at tax, which you should pay taxes on your capital gains. And you’re going to see transparency, and that’s going to bring more institutions to it, which is more liquidity. And it’s going to be difficult. Those other exchanges are always going to compete.
Frank Curzio: But it’s a lot of garbage on the other side of those exchanges, where you don’t even know these companies. It’s like you’re just trading a bunch of bottle caps at a different color, seriously. You don’t know anything about them. I know, I researched thousands of them, where Coinbase, you’re going to see security tokens, we’re are getting our financials audited. Hopefully, we’re attractive to them to be on that exchange, but there’s going to be transparency there. Then, we need liquidity, which we would have if we trade there. But that’s where this market opens up, and this is where I saw it opening up, a little bit sooner, but now, I really see that’s going to happen, that Coinbase. I mean, I’m glad you brought that up. It’s incredible.
Frank Curzio: Now, I’m going to bring up something to you, Dan. There’s this big fight between gold or Bitcoin. I own both. I’m heavily invested both. I believe in both. I believe in both because of what’s going on with destroying the dollar, just unlimited printing. And I believe in both. But unfortunately, a lot of people out there believe it’s either Bitcoin or gold. Now, as we saw Bitcoin rise tremendously, we’ve seen gold, and I’d say gold stocks, because that’s how most people… People invest in Bitcoin, or they invest in gold stocks. Again, a lot of gold bugs, and stuff, like did they have a bullion, and stuff like that? But gold stocks have underperformed, while Bitcoin has surged.
Frank Curzio: Now, we saw this week, which is interesting, because we saw Bitcoin crash. It’s a crash, down 20%. Who cares, it’s up 500% over the past 18 months. It’s a crash, 20%. You would think, “Hey, maybe money comes out of this, and goes into gold.” But gold stocks also got hit. So, my question to you is, how do gold people convince… Those golden investors and analysts, how do they convince the younger crowd to buy Bitcoin, when it completely outperforms gold? And even when it falls… It doesn’t even benefit when Bitcoin falls. It’s just, it seems like… What’s the reason for a young investor to… I get it for old investors and stuff like that, but what’s the reason to get a young investor? I can’t see them getting into gold. It’s not exciting.
Daniel Creech: It’s going to be tough, yeah. I mean, because it’s going to be the older generation talking, and saying, “Hey, you got to have hard money. You got to have something you can physically hold in your hand,” and that’s going to be an uphill battle. Because like I said, like kids do when mentors and other people try to give you advice, you sit there, and you nod your head, yeah, yeah, yeah. And you’re not really listening. It’s pathetic. But because in reality, they’re going to look down at their phone, and they’re going to be up X amount of percent. I mean, the thing is up over 100% in a couple months.
Daniel Creech: So like you said, how do you tell them that? The crazy thing to me is that it’ll be interesting to see how long the price of gold and silver continue… I mean, silver is actually getting on the WallStreetBets type deal stuff. So, it’s performing better than gold. But I don’t know why they both can’t go up, because it’s the same argument. You’re protecting yourself against silly policies on the federal level, and the central banks around the world. And everybody values scarcity. They have both. So, I’m not helping you here much. I don’t know why you wouldn’t buy both. And once people see the amount of gains that you can get in gold stocks, hell, you talk about 10X, you can make that in gold stocks.
Frank Curzio: Plenty of times. Yeah, when you see-
Daniel Creech: So, I guess it’ll take… You know what? It’ll take results. So, it’ll take a nice little… What was it, a couple years? Was it 2016, the first quarter-
Frank Curzio: Well, 2016, you had a-
Daniel Creech: When gold stocks… I mean, a lot of them went up 100%, 200%.
Frank Curzio: Like that.
Daniel Creech: Boom.
Frank Curzio: And then they came back down. And I think 2018, ’19, they really surged. And I was fortunate to know the right people in the industry. I have lots of friends. I speak at a lot of these conferences in Vancouver, which is the mining capital of the world, the resource capital of the world. But they’ve gotten me into deals where I have five-year warrants. You see a stock not doing too well, and you’re like, “Whatever.” And the next thing you know, it’s year three and a half, and three, fourth years. And I’m like, “Whoa.” These things start taking off, and then the warrants are in the money. And that’s the way they structure these things. So, that’s why I own both of them.
Frank Curzio: And it’s funny, because when I argue this, people are like, “Frank, Bitcoin, you’re an idiot.” I’m not. I’m the person that believes in both of them. I’m just trying to start that conversation. How do you get gold to be more exciting? Because right now should be a time where people are pouring into gold, and they’re not. Instead, they’re purchasing Bitcoin for the same reasons, because of what the federal government is doing here, instead of gold, which is not really good for those stocks.
Frank Curzio: Now, let’s talk about more, what the Federal Reserve is doing, because and this segment, I think is going to be fun, because Daniel always has strong opinions about it, about what the Fed is doing, and helping poor people, and all this stuff. But you had a nice rant, and I said, “We need to talk about this on a podcast.” So, I’ll let you start with it, because this is going to be really cool.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, so Jerome Powell, Fed Chair is… And let me say, so why do I care about politics, and why do I always talk about it? Because you have to pay attention of what’s going on, because… And I thought it was a great point Genia made. When volatility hits, you want to be prepared beforehand. Because if you want to try to buy insurance or whatever during volatility, it’s going to be very difficult. The odds are against you. So, you always want to have that in the back of your head of trying to, hey, be forward thinking, be productive, be protective.
Daniel Creech: With the Federal Reserve, let’s say, like Yellen was talking about, switching gears from Fed Chair to Treasury real quick here. But just as an example, let’s say that she talks about a wealth tax, or a transaction tax, or higher capital gains tax. If you don’t know that that’s floating out there, and the market is selling off, it clouds your decision making process. So, you want to know what’s going on, and if the market is selling off, that’s probably an opportunity. Because unless something fundamentally changes, like they start using common sense, and start helping people, instead of keeping their foot on them, then you got to play in the environment you’re in.
Daniel Creech: So, I say all that to say this. Switching back, Fed Chair Powell was brought up in front of some committee or whatever, and everybody took the grandstanding chance to talk about helping poor people, and the wealth gap, and the wealth inequality. And the irony here is that… They kept talking about unemployment, Frank. Do you know what the unemployment rate is right now? It’s like 10%-ish.
Frank Curzio: I think it’s lower than that, but yeah.
Daniel Creech: And everybody likes to say how we’re 10 million jobs less before pre-corona and all that. Why is unemployment so high, Frank? That’s a layup question. This is an Abbot and Costello routine. I’ll give you a real easy question. Why is unemployment so high?
Frank Curzio: Well basically, we have everything closed. A lot of businesses closed their doors, right?
Daniel Creech: Exactly.
Frank Curzio: So of course, it’s going to be high, yes.
Daniel Creech: So, all these members of the committee are up there grilling the Fed Chair on doing more. And he had to walk a tight line, and he did well, “I can’t comment on policy,” and, “I can’t… Yeah, that’s for you guys. And what we’re doing is this over here, and we can’t stimulate it any more than what we’re doing.” They kept talking about the high unemployment, and nobody brought up the fact that it’s the reaction to the COVID. The reason unemployment is so damn high is because you shut down businesses for so long. It’s a complete waste of time to talk about anything else. Reopen the economy, get the unemployment rate down, get people to actually work again, and start making money. That’s the best thing. I know they’re going to keep interest rates forever, which literally keeps poor people poor on purpose. We can vent about that any time you want to, but tell me how keeping interest rates low, where you can’t earn any money on your capital, and trying to force prices higher every year helps the poorest people in America.
Frank Curzio: No, it doesn’t. But I think you’re under the impression that… And this is where it was funny, because you’re trashing the Fed, governors, and stuff like that. But the Fed’s job… They can’t come out and say it, but their job is to make sure that they’re inflating the economy, inflating assets, because everything else is going to do pretty good. And they don’t come out and say, “Well, what we’re doing here is going to be great for the low income families. Absolutely not. I mean, they have to say, but it’s not.
Daniel Creech: Well, but I would argue. I think that, yeah, they do. They sell it that way, and that’s what aggravates me so much. They sell it like they’re helping the poorest people, and they’re trying to get them back on their feet.
Frank Curzio: But is the Fed that’s selling you, or is it the politicians?
Daniel Creech: I think they both do.
Frank Curzio: Because I know when you said the Fed, you were pissed at… Because it’s the easiest layup in the world. Everyone hates whoever is the head of the Fed. It’s so easy.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, it is easy to hate on them.
Frank Curzio: Everybody, you know what I mean? Yellen, Powell, go back, Greenspan, whoever. It’s the layup. For me, even Ben Bernanke, what they have done during these two periods has been incredible. And I think we have to look at it that way. And I’m not taking a side here, because again, I’m going to be literally… I’m all by myself pretty soon, right? Because nobody is going to agree with this, but if Bernanke didn’t do… If they didn’t capitalize the banks, if they didn’t stabilize the system, the whole world would’ve collapsed. We would still be feeling those effects if the Fed did nothing. If nobody did nothing, we’d still feel the effects of 20%, 25% unemployment rate.
Frank Curzio: And even the pandemic, again Dan, this is about, “Hey, we’re closing everything. Everyone said they’re following the science. They didn’t follow the science at all.” They’re still not following the science. I have no idea why New York, California, they’re just starting to open up a little bit, which is insane. And school, why are they not open? We have all the data. We know who we have to protect. Vaccines, they’re saying by May. Now, the new stats are out there that every… What is it? 95% of US adults, by the end of May, that’s not too long, are going to have at least one dose of the vaccine. You need to open up. We know who we need to protect. Those people need protection, but we also know that you have a 99.5% survival rate. And to close everything, and force people to close, and not just force people to close, but force certain businesses to close, and say, “Hey, you’re a mom and pop hardware store? You have to close. But Walmart, yeah, you’re good. You can stay open,” which is insane when you think about it.
Frank Curzio: But for me, when I look at what they’re doing, is it crazy, the amount of… The trillions that they’re spending? They had to do something. But if they’re not there to do something like this, and again, there’s going to be huge consequences for it, you have to realize what will happen. I mean, think about… You’ve just closed every business, Daniel, okay? I’m going to ask you this. So, you closed every business, and a lot of these business, or I’d say at least 30%, 35% of these, a lot of these are closing. I’d say even 60%, 70% are open at a certain capacity. But think about if they didn’t people checks, or money, or doing anything. Where would we be right now? Really? The stock market? The stock market, 100%, you could look at the liquidity injected into the market, and look at the trend. It’s 100%, because of liquidity. It’s not because companies manage. There’s going to be a couple beneficiaries here and there of the stay at home trend, but people get destroyed. I mean, the unemployment rate would be 25%, 30% right now if they did nothing.
Frank Curzio: And again, what they’re doing does not help poor people, but what do you think, Dan? Because when I look at this, if we didn’t have it, I think we’d be in a lot more trouble. But again, you’re talking about the perspective about it, and how they pitch it, and how the politicians pitch it, which nobody really cares, right? Nobody cares about the poor people, right? Nobody does.
Daniel Creech: No.
Frank Curzio: And I don’t mean us, I mean that the politicians and stuff, nobody really cares, right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. And I get what you’re saying on… I just wish they would do a lot less across the board. So, you can’t rewind time. So, you’ can’t say, “Well, you shouldn’t have shut the economy.” I mean, you can say it, but you can’t go back and change that. So, when you shut the economy down, when you make that decision, I’m not a government guy, but you damn near have to pay people, because you literally forced them not to go to work. So, I understand the payment there. Now, we’re blowing that, but that, like everything else, is abused. Because it’s just used to expand the powers, and the government reach. And that’s not good over the long-term on anything.
Daniel Creech: So yeah, you have to pay people now. But you need to reopen and stop it. You just can’t continue bad behavior after bad behavior. At some point, you have to stop. And that stopping point, or at least the easing of the gas pedal is higher interest rates. And that’s going to make them nervous, and they’ll just come out and reassure, “Hey, we got free money for longer. They’re going to do the yield control capping, or yield control,” and all that kind of stuff we talked about.
Frank Curzio: Mm-hmm. They’ve done that before, yup.
Daniel Creech: But that’s what you got to pay attention to. And the other thing you have to pay attention to is the reaction on that. So, if the 10-year goes to 1.5, why is that significant? That’s significant, because 1.5% is about the dividend the SNP 500 yield right now, the S&P 500 dividend yield. So, people were thinking, “All right, if you got a 10-year treasury paying you the same thing, you can sell assets out the stock market, and get the same yield.” That makes sense. But if you’re thinking about higher rates for the right reasons, the whole why is important. And they’ll come out and say, “Hey, we’re going to cap this,” they’ll cap the long, and they’ll do whatever they have to put the market at ease. The reaction on what the market does after that will be very telling, and that’s how we’ll position going forward. So, it’s a little bit of a wait and see. But yeah, it’s just going to continue, and it’s got to stop at some point, and I think yields will help that.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, I definitely agree. And that is certainly a risk. As yields go higher, I think there has been… Not think, but you see the money flows of going into equities. But now, look where equities are trading. It’s super expensive. And now, you’re saying, “If yields go higher, that alternative is like maybe, say, put it on a scale of one to 100, and all these people are coming into the stock market.” Now, it’s going to be dialed back a lot. So, that’s a risk of the market as well.
Frank Curzio: But getting back to the point with the Fed, governors, I mean, it’s very easy to crush these guys. I like what Bernanke did. I think what Powell is doing right now, and the whole trillions, and trillions, and trillions, guys. I mean, the people who actually got money, it’s insane, because not everybody needed those checks, and they went out to everybody. There’s businesses that were open. You had a place like Harvard, and Shake Shack, whatever they were, just filing for the loans. And it was just crazy that you should be able to find out, “Okay, these are the businesses that are closed. Here’s the families that need them.” But to give it to everybody is kind of crazy. And now, there’s still… I’d rather you give it much more to the people that need it, because I have friends that own gyms, restaurants. And the restaurants are doing good in Florida, but the gyms are still closed, man.
Frank Curzio: And I have one friend, who is a very good friend, who’s struggling. And it’s tough. He was perfectly fine. He was great until they said, “Hey, you have to close this.” And again, with no proof that if you go to a gym, zero proof, believe me. I covered COVID in more detail than lots of people, lots of doctors, everybody. I’ve been covering it since January, telling you about it. There’s no proof showing that if you go to a gym, that it’s easier to get it through a gym than if you go to a Home Depot. There’s no evidence of that at all, at all. And they’re forced to close, and it’s really sad. So, it is interesting. And yeah, point well taken.
Frank Curzio: But just to end this is, our politicians don’t really care about anybody. They don’t care about anybody. They care about getting elected. We have to know that. They impeached… The House came out with an impeachment against Trump in days. Yet, how long did it take, five, six months to get the second part of the stimulus out, or Phase Two to whatever phase it is now, I lose count. But come on, this is crazy. You knew that he was no way going to get impeached. You knew it, based on the votes, because you had to get a certain amount of votes. It’s not just 50/50, and you knew it for a fact, but you went through that whole fricking process, while people are struggling. Let this be about the people, and enough about politics, because it’s getting a little ridiculous now, and let’s see how it plays out. But yeah, no, I definitely agree. So…
Daniel Creech: Yeah, and next week, we’ll go through some of the bill, and maybe have some fun. We’ll see what the audience thinks about this. But yeah, talking about helping people, and then I’ll give my opinion on how to… I’ll tell you what. I’ll tell you how to fix everything next week, how about that?
Frank Curzio: All right. Dan has got it. I’m going to hold him to that. He’ll fix everything next week. But the bottom line here, guys, is you can pissed off at the system. You can hold a sign up. Again, whatever you want to do. Bottom line, you need to own assets. You need to own assets in this market. So, find a way to own assets, and you’re going to do well. And you want to own the right assets. I’m not telling you to buy Tesla all the way up here, or some of these crazy electric vehicle stocks that are up 9,000% and crazy SPACs. But you want to own assets, and whether that’s equities, whether that’s housing, whether it’s art collectibles, whatever it is, low interest rates, you’re going to continue to see money flow into assets. And that’s where you want to be. That’s how you play the system, which is all that matters. You’re feeding your family, making money, building a better future for your kids, and their kids. If that’s the goal, fine. If it’s not the goal, go outside. Go hold up a sign. See how that does for you. But this is the system. This is it. You could be pissed at it, but you have to play it right. If you play it right, you’ll make money, and that’s what we’re trying to show you.
Frank Curzio: Now, one last thing here, Dan, because this is going to be a pretty cool lesson. Lowes came out today and reported same store sales, US comparable sales were up 28.6% year over year. I mean, it follow 30%, 32%, and Home Depot was in the 20s. I mean, this is a massive, massive number, right?
Daniel Creech: Yeah.
Frank Curzio: I mean, well, look at it. I mean, even I saw it. I said, “Did you see that number?” You’re like, “Holy cow.” I mean, but you could look at Lowes and say, “I don’t know where it’s trading. It might be trading down. I have no idea today,” because a lot of these stocks have run up. But when I look at this, and when Dan and I look at this, it’s 75% of Lowes sales are generated from do-it-yourself projects. So, when I see something like this, I want to go to the conference call. I’m going to read research reports, and some of those I have access to and pay a lot of money for. But you can go to the transcript and read the call.
Frank Curzio: You’re job as an investor is to find out what segments inside Lowes are doing great. Is it lumber, plumbing, water heaters, washing machines, appliances, lighting, faucets, gardening, furniture? Because every segment that I mentioned there, myself, I can name 50 stocks that will benefit. And their sales are so good, those inventory levels are low, that you’re going to see those profits show up. If it wasn’t this past, you’re going to see it show up next quarter or quarter after. And you can jump the gun on a lot of these by listening to conference calls. And I’ve always tried to train people to do this. But when you see Lowes, I mean, those numbers are incredible.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. And to answer your question, everything is up. I mean, lumber, grills, lawn and garden, they have a quick… They just have a nice little two-page press release. And listen to this, “Positive, comparable sales exceeded 16% in each department across décor-
Frank Curzio: Wow.
Daniel Creech: Electrical, building materials, paint, lawn and garden, lumber, and seasonal outdoor living.” And the other thing that jumped out at me was, purchases over $500 rose 29%. So, you’re getting bigger ticket items. And I know a ton of people that are doing home projects and stuff. And there’s some nice communities here on the island. And I know a couple people. And hell, they go to Lowes and Home Depot every other day. So, that’s going to continue. That trend is going to be with us for a while. And I apologize to The Dollar Stock Club members, because we sold Toll Brothers at a very small gain, and it’s done nothing but go straight freaking up since. So, if you ignored that email, congrats to you. And hell, I would jump back in at current prices, around $50 to tell you the truth. So…
Frank Curzio: Yeah, Toll Brothers came up. But say that again, because that was interesting. Because when I first saw this, and guys, just to let you know with the schedule. I’m writing this thing up within the podcast. And I said, “Do me a favor,” because a lot of times, talking about today, “Try to find the details of Lowes.” And you did that. You did a great job. It was a two-pager.
Daniel Creech: Well, they make it easy.
Frank Curzio: Well, it wasn’t that easy, because I tried to look at it really quickly, and I didn’t see it broken down yet. But that was about three hours ago, before taping this. But what’d you say about the 16% number again? What is that, every category?
Daniel Creech: Yeah, each of those categories from lumber to décor, positive comps exceeded 16% in all merchandising departments.
Frank Curzio: Holy shit. That’s insane.
Daniel Creech: So, everybody is buying everything. Projects are full speed ahead on that. And like I said, people are spending money. And now, you’ve got another round of stimulus coming. There’ll be talks of a third one coming, plus an infrastructure. That’s also again why you need to pay attention to politics. So, buckle up.
Frank Curzio: And it just goes to show you, for those that are bearish in this market, when every single segment, people are fixing their houses. Wait until you see the explosion in the travel industry. Holy cow, that’s coming. MGM just announced they’re opening up, fully, their casinos in Las Vegas. You’re going to see this across the board, where it’s going to be hard to get a flight. It’s going to be difficult to get a hotel room. Everyone is dying to go out. They have money. They didn’t go on vacation last year, so they’re probably going to spend double this year, and fly first class, whatever.
Frank Curzio: But there’s still a lot of room, and that’s the reason why in this market, and Dan can attest to this, where what do you… You would think that the S&P is crashing. It’s down less than 2% from its all-time highs And you would think that why? Because what are the companies they cover? Technology, Teslas, Apples, Netflix. Companies are getting nailed, just that’s what people click on, and that’s what the media is going to show you. But overall, there is something that’s working very, very good, and it’s done very well in this week, when the market didn’t do so well, and that’s cyclicals.
Frank Curzio: We were in very early with these stocks in our portfolios. I just recommended another one. They have tremendous upside potential. These guys are just hitting, or going near their highs pre-COVID. But remember, they cut costs significantly. So, they could generate the same revenue, and yet, their profits are going to explode by 20%, 25% more, and it’s not factored in, because the demand that they’re going to see is incredible, and there’s a lot of names. I’d be look at infrastructure. I’d be looking at travel related companies. You’ve seen those show up in my portfolios. But Dan, this is for real. It’s going to happen for a while. And again, you want to protect yourself, like I said earlier, in certain divisions. But I mean, right now, not that it’s pedal to the metal, but still, there are things that are working, and just the underlying trends are going to make sure that you’re going to always have some sectors to invest in that aren’t going to do well.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, absolutely. There’s always going to be… What’s your guys say? Always a bull market somewhere? That’s what they’d say.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, my guy, Jim Cramer. There’s always a bull market somewhere.
Daniel Creech: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, there’s always going to be pockets there, and that’s good. And just, I know this sounds easy, but in my opinion, this is the best advice I can give anybody right now. There is a huge disconnect between reality, and the economy, and the stock market. But who gives a shit? We’re in the stock market, so let’s go.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, yeah, I miss Cramer, those days. That was really when the show first stated, when it began, just when he was thinking about what sayings for the buttons, and, “Are you ready? Skedaddle,” all that stuff, and everything. I have the bull signs, the little bulls, the red-
Daniel Creech: I will say I know we’re a little long-haired, so we need to wrap this up. But I do want something for my birthday. I want a sound board in here. I want to be hitting buttons like crazy. So, we need to work on that.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, sound boards would be cool, especially if we had movie quotes in it and stuff like that.
Daniel Creech: Oh, yeah.
Frank Curzio: That’d be awesome.
Daniel Creech: We’ll pull one up on Google. Maybe we’ll do that next week.
Frank Curzio: We’ll see. If anybody knows anything about sound boards, let us know, because that’ll be really, really cool. And we’ll definitely do that. That would be fun.
Daniel Creech: Send this one.
Frank Curzio: But you’re going to be hitting that thing all the time, man. It’s going to be crazy.
Daniel Creech: I know, it’d be great.
Frank Curzio: Anyway, Daniel, thank you so much for coming on. I really appreciate it as always. And Dan will join us next week. But really great stuff, and again, we like talking about the current topics, and what’s going on. This is for base in the emails I get from you. So, feel free to email email@example.com. I’m always here for you. And two things, make sure to check out our Curzio Research YouTube page, where we show charts and everything. All of this is in video. It’s really cool. We’re getting very positive feedback. Subscribe to it, like it, whatever, hate it, whatever you want. But it just gives you an alternative, and it also shows the sites the and things. And some of the research that we use, which cool. It gives you a better experience. But iTunes is awesome as well. But if you get a chance, you want to look at that, you can. And that’s absolutely for free.
Frank Curzio: And the last thing is Moneyflow Trader, we talked a lot about hedging. We had Genia on. You see how smart she is. I love her. Again, a great addition to the team. For the next 10 days, I’ll discount that newsletter for you guys, because I think it’s a very, very good time. There’s sectors and stocks. Yes, Dan and I just talked about things that are working, and Lowes, and all this stuff. But there’s also things. You’re going to see rotations, and taking advantage of that, or taking advantage if interest rates go higher, and the overall market comes down, that’s how you hedge. It’s very simple to do. You could do it through your portfolio. So, I’m going to offer a 50% discount, if you’re interested, over the next 10 days. If not, no worries on that product. But it’s something I think is going to help you tremendously, tremendously. It’s a product that once you subscribe, I really, truly believe that you’ll be subscribed for many, many, many years. Because that’s how good it is.
Frank Curzio: So guys, that’s it for me. Thank you so much for listening, views going up. Everything is really cool. Keep the comments coming, positive, negative, whatever. If you want to yell at me, get that off your chest, that’s fine. I’m here for you. It doesn’t matter. But really, I appreciate it. Pretty humbling sometimes when I think about how many people listen to this, but it’s really, really cool, and I just want to say thank you. And I’ll see you guys in seven days, take care.
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guest. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money, and your responsibility.
- Guest: Genia Turanova, editor of Moneyflow Trader and Unlimited Income [27:55]
- Educational: Lowe’s, the housing market, interest rates, Jerome Powell, and bitcoin [58:14]
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