Editor’s note: Today, we’re kicking off a new format for Wall Street Unplugged. Instead of one long weekly show, you’ll have the option of listening to shorter segments three days a week: Frank’s personal (and often controversial) monologue on Tuesday… his guest interview with market experts on Wednesday… and his behind-the-headlines educational segment with Daniel on Thursday.
Big news: I’m getting my vaccine shot.
I dig into the controversial topic of vaccines on today’s show… and explain why COVID isn’t going away… ever. It’s a frustrating problem, but it’s also a great teachable moment about investing. [0:16]
As economies reopen and we adjust to a “new normal,” there are a lot of opportunities to take advantage of. Listen as I share some of the best risk/reward setups out there right now… [19:06]
I’ve been bearish on Disney (DIS) for a while now… But a Curzio One member wants to know if my thesis is changing based on the company’s new streaming content… [23:47]
A Curzio Venture Opportunities member doesn’t agree with my bullish call on uranium. He thinks producers can control the market, similar to OPEC and oil. But these sectors are apples and oranges… [28:31]
And finally, what profession would I choose if I wasn’t building Curzio Research? Don’t miss this rant about the jobs that REALLY pay today… and my second passion. [30:55]
- Why COVID isn’t going away—ever [0:16]
- The best risk/reward setups in the market [19:06]
- Is Frank still bearish on Disney? [23:47]
- How the uranium market is different from oil [28:31]
- The best-paying jobs today [30:55]
Wall Street Unplugged | 790
The more you know about COVID... the more money you’ll make
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Main Street.
Frank Curzio: How’s it going out there? It’s September 7th. I’m Frank Curzio. It’s the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. So, I’m getting the vaccine later today. I chose Moderna. You could choose anything you want, basically, depending where you want to go in. Publix has Moderna. CVS has Pfizer. I think Walgreens has Pfizer by us. We’re choosing Moderna. It has more antibodies than Pfizer, and yes, we found out today that the booster for Moderna is getting delayed, but I’m not going to need that for a while.
Frank Curzio: And again, I have to get the vaccine, and I wanted to wait just to see more data as someone who had COVID of whether I need it or not. Right? See if those antibodies… but they’re kind of forcing you. And I’m doing a lot of traveling, trying to make some big deals and find some great ideas for you, so it’s going to be fun as that opens up. But I have to tell you, every single time I talk about COVID… and people are cringing right now because I get so many emails. People are like, “Frank, I don’t think you’re serving your audience that good if you talk about COVID.”
Frank Curzio: But it’s positive and negative. I mean, the positives are like, “Thank you for being a voice of reason, telling the truth, providing data I would never find otherwise.” A lot of people say, “Even though it may get you kicked off social media and iTunes,” that’s easing a lot more. I’m seeing different videos and people speaking out on studies and stuff where that was totally removed from everywhere. But I want to share the stats as I’m a research guy. I talk to a lot of doctors who listen to this podcast. I want to share that stuff with you.
Frank Curzio: Again, negatives, “Stop talking about COVID. This is an investment podcast. Thank God you’re getting a vaccine. You’re a selfish asshole since… The only way this pandemic will end is if selfish people like you get the vaccine.”
Frank Curzio: Now, look, this is an investment podcast, and I love feedback, and I have thick skin. And the world of social media, I mean, we’ve seen tennis players come on recently, and just people like to trash. They could do it so much more through emails and social media and things like that, but you have to have thick skin if you’re going to be on these platforms and do this stuff. And I do. And I love hearing the criticisms. I really do, as long as there’s data to support them. And a lot of you provided data and different stats and things like that, but it is an investment podcast, so I get it.
Frank Curzio: But COVID is directly tied to your investment portfolio, directly tied to it. The spreading of this like wildfire across the U.S., and everyone was like, “Ah, it’s not going to come here.” And interviewing people in China on lockdown when China was closing everything in January, early February. Again, they account for 40% of the world’s growth, 40% of the world’s growth, and they’re shutting down everything. And we were trading at a multiple that we really, really needed to see that growth pre-COVID. Stocks at all-time highs, very expensive.
Frank Curzio: I figured the market would come down tremendously, and nobody was kind of figuring that out. We did a pretty solid job getting out. Then in May, we started learning more about this virus, who it attacks, who needs to be protected from it, combined with the government handing out trillions, trillions, and trillions of dollars directly to people, not to banks to hold the market up like we saw in the credit crisis, or during the credit crisis, not that, directly to people. Right? It’s going to spark inflation tremendously. Right? We called that as well, inflation through the roof, but we got back in, granted about a month or so too late, but we made some exceptional, exceptional returns.
Frank Curzio: In August, September, we got into a lot of reopen plays. It was just a matter of time before people got sick of wearing masks, so we should mix data on it. People wanted to go out. They were sick of being locked down, plus knowing who this actually targets and older people. A lot of young people were like, “Listen, I want to go out. I’m going to be okay if I get this. It’s going to be so much like the flu.” The stats didn’t support lockdowns. Pretty easy to figure that out if you just did a little bit of homework, a little bit of homework. You can even go to CDC, the WHO, by sites like that, using their statistics. I use their statistics why there’s no way we should be locked down.
Frank Curzio: So, I had to find out more data about mass social distancing. There’s no evidence that these things actually work without you even saying the regular masks… How many people you see wear the blue masks? He said they don’t work. I would say the majority of people, 75% I see with masks, have those. And social distancing and things like that, and more and more data started coming out. It’s important to report that. It matters. Businesses are going to open quicker. People are going to spend more money. The money that… The handouts that they’re getting from the government, businesses getting PPP loans, all this, even Harvard applying for it. Love it.
Frank Curzio: Even the colleges and the tuition, everyone blames everyone else, except for those wonderful colleges who continue to raise the price of tuition, even though they closed at campuses. How great are they? You think they would come out and say, “Okay, we’re going to lower prices and help people.” No fucking way. No way would they ever say that. No, they want free handouts. They want the government to mandate that. They’re going to take care of all student debt because this way, they can raise prices even more and get paid directly from the government, and the government is going to continue to pay those bills for a very long time. People think so. But man, those colleges, what a scam. Holy cow!
Frank Curzio: Even Harvard filed for PPP loans. What’s their endowment? Tens of billions, if not over a hundred billion, whatever it is. Unbelievable. But, hey, that’s the world we live in. Free money, why not? Even if you’re rich, I’m going to take it. You’re giving it out, I’m taking it.
Frank Curzio: Fast forward to today, and I know all of you have strong opinions on COVID. Everybody does. You know why? Because it impacted people in different ways. If you lost a loved one to COVID, you definitely have a certain opinion of how you need the vaccine. You have to watch out. Totally different from someone who watched hundreds of friends and everybody get COVID, and they’re younger, and nothing happened. You’re going to have a different opinion. If you’re over 70 years old with underlying conditions, you’re going to have a different opinion. Of course, it impacts you. You’re in a danger zone.
Frank Curzio: By the way, these are the people that are making decisions. Of course, they are scared. They should be scared, but should they talk for everybody when you’re in a danger zone? I don’t know. I’d rather a very smart doctor that’s 55, under 60, who run in their own hospitals, those are the people I want to hear from because they’re not in the danger zone, but they understand how important it is to get the right message out, not saying everything applies to everyone. You need to lock yourself in your home. Wear masks in your cars. I mean, come on.
Frank Curzio: If you lost someone to cancer, yet you couldn’t visit him in the hospital to say goodbye to them, you’re going to have a different opinion. You’re going to hate everything, COVID, masks, all the bullshit. If you’re a nurse, doctor, working on the front line, and watch people die of COVID, again, you’re going to have a certain opinion on this. If you’re young and healthy and have no underlying conditions, again, you’re going to think differently about this disease. So, it’s open to so many different opinions, and there’s a lot of emotions behind it. I get it. The reason why there’s emotions is because there’s so many people telling us different shit, and nobody knows who to believe.
Frank Curzio: Well, believe someone who doesn’t have an agenda. I don’t have an agenda. I have kids. I have a mom that’s sick. I want them to be safe. I don’t want more people to watch my programs, so I’m going to scare the shit out of them and how you’re going to die if you don’t pay close attention to me and lockdown and listen to all of this bullshit with political ties and biases. Come on, give me a break.
Frank Curzio: But for those who believe that everyone needs to be vaccinated before we see COVID go away, because I receive several emails from listeners about that point, I have news for you. COVID is not going away anytime soon. No way. It’s similar to the flu, and there’s going to be numerous strains like Delta, like Mu, M-U it’s called. The strain has been found in 48 states now. Trust me, you’re going to hear a lot about it, probably starting next month. Like Delta, nobody really cared until Delta was really here, and now it’s Delta, Delta, Delta, Delta, Delta. It’s all you hear every day. Well, I don’t know if it’s called Mu or M-U, but that’s a new strain.
Frank Curzio: But we know that the current vaccines do not protect against Delta or the new strains. There’s tons of people who are vaccinated, are getting Delta and the new strain, Mu. Yes, the vaccine seems to reduce the chance of you becoming seriously ill from Delta. We’ve seen some data on that. The same is likely to be said of new strains, but COVID, guys, COVID is here to stay. I mean, it’s like the flu. You’re going to be required to get a booster shot every year. They’re already starting with it. Someone was saying two booster shots a year. It’s not going away. Whether you get vaccinated or not, it’s not going away.
Frank Curzio: How many people you know that got vaccinated who got Delta? I know tons of people, almost everyone getting infected I know. In fact, had the vaccine. Look, I’m not anti-vax, by any reason. For me, as someone who had COVID, I just want some more data out there before I stick a needle in my daughter’s arms and my arm. But most of it shows that you’re going to be perfectly safe, and that’s fine. And I hope I am, knock on wood because I’m getting that vaccine later today because I’m going to be required if I want to travel. It’s just a matter of time for airlines and major cities that I’m traveling. Holy cow! It’s crazy. Requiring it every place. Go inside New York City.
Frank Curzio: With that said, you need to listen up, please. Those of you that bitch about COVID and that that… It’s not about that. One point is about your investments. People are getting more used to COVID. They understand who it impacts the most, with 80% of people who die are over 60. They understand that kids could get COVID, and we’re seeing lots of kids get COVID, go to hospital. Boy! More than 99% of the time, they’re fine. That’s a pretty large percentage, very large percentage. I mean, take marriage, for example. 50% of the world’s marriages end in divorce. Does that stop anyone from getting married? That’s 50%. This is 99-plus percent. It’s crazy.
Frank Curzio: The 99%-plus overall survival rate is enough to keep our kids in school. They should be going to school, especially when you look at what’s taking place as depression, suicide, anxiety rates. They’re skyrocketing in children, even adults that have stayed home due to COVID, especially anxiety. It’s tough having a work from home, learn new technologies, and explain stuff to your kids because yes, they use computers, but there’s all new programs you have to teach them, and then you have to help them. They’re in the house with you. I mean, come on. It’s crazy. You ain’t used to that. But interesting fact, during the pandemic, about four in 10 adults in the U.S. have reported symptoms of anxiety or depressive disorder during the pandemic. Right? That’s up from one in 10 adults who reported these symptoms from January through June 2019, pre-COVID. That’s from the census bureau household poll survey.
Frank Curzio: We talk about that a little bit, but not enough. It’s not like, “Hey, keep our kids home. This way, 1% doesn’t die.” There’s a serious impact that’s going on with kids and even adults if you do keep them home, that could turn out to be much, much greater than COVID itself. But again, we know this data. Now, where am I going with this?
Frank Curzio: Here’s a basketball analogy. Magic Johnson came out and told the world he was HIV positive. I mean, that was one of the bravest things I ever saw, bravest things I ever saw. I mean, they give credit to people today coming out of the closet in professional sports. To me, it’s not the same thing. We live in a world where it’s more popular to be gay than not gay. And that’s true. To me, a lot of these people are doing it for their own self-benefit. This way, they get on TV and ESPN, and sign deals with whoever, and marketing deals. It’s not like a statement or anything.
Frank Curzio: But Magic, I mean, people were scared to go near the guy. They thought they were going to get AIDS if you breathed on him. They were deathly afraid of HIV everything. Look at Magic today. Anybody that sees him, shake his hand. They let him play in the Olympics, the dream team. No one thinks about him having HIV or contracting it from him. Why? Several reasons. I mean, you’ve got treatments now. People know more about HIV, how it spreads. But those treatments where most people don’t die from HIV, so it is treatable. And also, because most people are used to the story. They understand the facts. You don’t panic like when you did it in the 90s when learning someone had HIV. Holy shit! I’m going to get it. Don’t go to that person. Oh, my God!
Frank Curzio: But if you notice as we’re going on, and on, and on, 18 months, a little past, into this with COVID, we’re not as nervous about it, especially compared to last time this year. Are we scared if we get it? Yes. But is it like, “Oh, my God! Stay home.” It’s dominating everything. Now, people get it. There’s protocols. You call the school, doctors, whatever. And everyone’s like, “Okay, stay at home. You’ll be okay. And if not, come to the hospital or whatever if you have breathing problems.” I mean, we know the protocol, and we’re getting used to it. So, we hear that someone has COVID, or your friends have COVID, like, “Holy shit! Mikey has COVID. He’s going to fucking die. Oh, my God!” No, it’s not like that. It’s like, “Aw, man.”
Frank Curzio: I heard from a couple of friends that had it. I said, “Look, guys. Hey, this is what I know about it. You’re probably going to be okay. You’re going to feel really shitty. Some people get it worse than others. If you have any problems breathing, make sure you get your ass to the hospital. Use ventilators or whatever.” And some people have gone there and have been okay. And others, a few have died, but most people turn out to be okay. But people are getting used to the story now. It’s not as scary since we know who it impacts. We know more data. We have vaccines that help a lot of people. They reduce fatalities of people who get COVID again. We have booster shots that increase immunity. We don’t freak out anymore when we see someone not wearing a mask. I mean, some of these cities, man, people will be throwing stuff. “You wear that fucking mask. Are you crazy?”
Frank Curzio: Yeah. It’s, it’s eased down. It’s getting better and better and better. When you look at the statistics and how 99% of the population is going to be okay, even in a new COVID world, we’re going to see new strains affecting vaccinated people for a very long time. But I can tell you a lot of people are going to go on living their lives. Businesses are going to go on and find a way to generate profits. The wall is going to go down, and every country is eventually going to be fully open. So, why am I talking about COVID on an investor podcast? Because there’s a lot of money to be made here, and it’s important. It’s one thing we all have in common, financial being, providing better opportunities for our kids and their kids and things like that.
Frank Curzio: And maybe you listen to this podcast. If you look at individual sectors like the airlines that are still 25% off their pre-COVID highs. Pre-COVID, they generated record profits everywhere. New planes do everything. These guys are charging everything and getting the money. Now people have more money than ever. Travel is going to come back. Seeing a dip in cruise stocks because of Delta. Man, people love cruises. That’s coming back. Things are being impacted again due to Delta, retail stores, restaurants, travel-related stocks. I suggest buying the crap out of these names. Don’t do it blindly or aggressively. Do some homework on it. Follow our newsletters. It’s going to be tons of volatility, but take small positions right now, names like Delta Expedia, casino stocks, hotels, and pull back 20, 25% from their highs.
Frank Curzio: You think I’m still going to see a massive, massive boom in profits? And people are still dying to get out. They’re dying to travel. Business travel is going to make a huge comeback. People are nervous right now, but you’ll see. It’s going to make a massive comeback. This is as close to a guarantee as you get. The only thing that’s not a guarantee is when. When will this happen? Could it take three months before it really opened up? I don’t know. It could. We’re going to open up when we see Delta cases peak, hospitalization rates peak and come down again. Maybe they go back up with different strains, but it could take six months, one year, two years. Who cares? Who cares what the timeframe is?
Frank Curzio: I mean, I know today, you got to know everything that second, and you want to make a million percent returns tomorrow. But let’s be real here. For someone’s been doing this for my whole entire life, it takes a long time, just like my business. I mean, everyone starts a business, and they think they’re going to be the biggest in the world in the first two years. It takes a fucking decade. It takes a long time. It doesn’t happen overnight. But even if it takes two years, who cares? Seriously, if you’re a long-term investor, you’re looking to trade, trade the charts, trade the patterns. But if you’re looking at fundamentals, if you’re looking at sediment among people, everything is going to open up. I mean, is 18 months, 24 months, a long time? Not really.
Frank Curzio: I mean, 18 months when COVID first hit America. It wasn’t a long time ago. It seems like it was yesterday. How many stocks have we seen up three, 400, 500% from those lows? We all have strong opinions about COVID, and that’s based mostly on our personal experience dealing with this virus over the past 18 months. We can all agree on one thing. I said it earlier. We want to provide a better life for our children. I want to retire one day or be in a position to make that choice because I know a lot of people who could retire and don’t because they love what they do, but it’s nice to be in that position.
Frank Curzio: We all want to be financially secure. And to do that, we need to make smart investment decisions, even during times like we’re seeing today with COVID. So, we need to talk about it. It’s big and influences everything in our lives. Maybe it’s not the opinion you want to hear or the facts you want to hear. But even if that’s the case, for me, I always like listening to the other side, listening to what you’re hearing, listening to…
Frank Curzio: For me, it’s doctors that don’t have an agenda. They tell me, “Hey, Frank, you might want to mention this. Don’t mention my name because I’m not allowed to mention it.” Holy shit! You’re not allowed to mention it? You’ve been treating people for 12 months in COVID. You’ve seen everything. And you have some great ideas, and you’re not allowed to share them because you could risk losing your job? Holy shit! What country do we live in? Aren’t we supposed to always make things better and the next generation better, and the next generation better? Now we can’t share information that we know could help people. You’re not allowed to share it because it’s not part of someone’s agenda. Holy shit!
Frank Curzio: But COVID must be addressed, and it’s incredibly important for everyone to understand the facts without any bullshit from politicians or the media who have an agenda to scare the shit out of you since it results in what? More viewership, page views, more profits. But it’s important to know the facts so we can make smart investment decisions. Take advantage of the inefficiencies caused by bullshit reporting, so we all make enough money to make our life, our kids’ lives, and even their kids’ lives financially secure. That’s what it’s about.
Frank Curzio: To do that, stop buying small positions and reopen stuff. You’ll find a lot of these names in a Curzio Research Advisory portfolio, Curzio Venture Opportunities portfolio, some of these things that have pulled back from their highs. Many are down more than 20%. I mean, some individual names. I mentioned before Expedia, Delta, and travel-related names, sports apparel companies. Dick’s numbers were insane. They told you where they’ve seen strong demand.
Frank Curzio: How many big retailers sell their products or apparel, making or selling their products through Dick’s? Not too hard to figure that out. Just walk through the store really quick. Holy shit! And a lot of those names are really starting to rebound and reporting great numbers, so it’s all together. It’s not just Dick’s. You’re seeing that demand, seeing strong numbers everywhere. And one name that comes to mind is Callaway, symbol, E-L-Y. They sell their equipment through Dick’s. Dick’s said, “Hey, you know what? We’re seeing very strong sales in golf equipment.” It’s continued through the pandemic.
Frank Curzio: They utilized a holding Curzio Research Advisory. We initially bought at 17, and we added to the position around 33 because the thesis just got better and better and better. So, our cost bases were probably up around 20, 25%, around there. The company reported great earnings last time. Actually, several quarters in a row, seeing a huge demand for golf equipment at Callaway Golf Equipment, even more growth than Top Golf, which it acquired last year, owned a piece of it and acquired the whole thing. Anyone that goes to Top Golf, you could barely get in there. It’s awesome. It’s fun. It has pricing power, but they reported great numbers, what, not too long ago.
Frank Curzio: And this morning, they just raised their guidance significantly. They raised that guidance for a third quarter and for the full year. Next quarter is their third quarter, raised sales by 10%, EBITDA by 100%. That’s over a hundred million from around 50 million. 100%! Holy cow! You don’t do that. If you’re confident, those numbers are going to be even much better than that. Right? Yet, you’re looking at a stock that went to 35 as high. It was around the past six months, and it fell to 27 recently. That’s a nice pullback, a little bit more than 20%. And yet, they’re raising guidance even further, which was the thesis of many people that have a hold on the stock and many of the firms.
Frank Curzio: Ah, we’re not going to be sure who said cash flow, and they paid a lot for Top Golf. Believe me, that thing’s already paying off. They’re going over so many of those places it’s ridiculous. They’re making a fortune. And I hear that even from people, from you. They’re making a fortune. The stock’s up 5% today, but it’s a name that should easily surge past its all-time that was $35.00. And Top Golf is just an incredible franchise. Golf is in a secular growth market, and people who took it up during the pandemic are not going to stop playing. Sorry, that’s not how golf works.
Frank Curzio: I played every sport just about growing up. And man, golf is by far the most competitive, the most difficult. When you play it, and you hit a couple of good shots, you just keep playing it. You don’t play that sport once or twice and stop. You just don’t. You get psyched, and then you start buying equipment, and then start buying good balls and everything. And then you start going to Top Golf a lot. I mean, that’s what you seeing, this secular uptrend in golf. It’s pretty incredible, but that’s how I would play this. That’s why I talk about COVID. And you need to understand, not even for health reasons. Again, there’s no bias here.
Frank Curzio: Well, I have two young kids, and watching them grow up and go to school, and seeing this firsthand, and my mom, who’s been through problems and stuff like that, and telling her to get the vaccine. Again, we just all want the right information in front of us. And unfortunately, you’re not getting that from a lot of sources that you’re supposed to be getting that at, from CDC, government, whatever. I mean, this is about people’s lives. This isn’t whatever, your political agenda and cutthroat, I get it. But you’re talking about people’s lives. People are dying because of the advice that you’re fucking giving them.
Frank Curzio: People need good sources, and this is one of them. And again, something I’m proud of, and I know people get pissed off when I talk about COVID. Now, you know why. How many names did I just throw out at you? The opportunity to make your lives better by buying the right companies, buying the right stocks, in order to do that, you need to know everything about COVID, just like you need to know everything about fracking, and everything about climate change, and everything about carbon credit. You need to know everything about the industry and what’s being reported out there before you decide to make investment decisions.
Frank Curzio: And the fact that we’re still being fed lies on COVID is pretty crazy. But you know what? It’s pushing stocks down. It’s pushing stocks all over the place. And you know what? My job is to make sure that you take advantage of it. And so far, we have, and we’re going to continue to do so.
Frank Curzio: Now, the new format, let’s get to a couple of questions here and try to keep this at 30 minutes. Let’s start with Todd. He goes, “Frank, I’ve been a Curzio One member for a year, and I’ve been extremely happy with the service. It’s great seeing you continue to honor the commitment to expand the offerings and the umbrella of both your company and Curzio One.” Now he says, “A couple of points I’m hoping to raise,” but I’m just going to take one of them here because I want to get to a few questions.
Frank Curzio: He goes, “I understand the majority of your position of Disney. However, there’s one thing I’ve never heard you mention that seems to be missing from your narrative. On new content, Disney has been producing content for decades. They run the Disney Channel, which has numerous series on top of their movie production. I can understand shows like Mandalorian are expensive and help boost viewership, but I would contend that for a huge chunk of the demographics, young children and tweens, they already have a solid production offering in place. I do agree they seem wildly over valued right now, but want to get your take on this specific point.” I look forward to future Curzio Research, and I’m glad to be along for the ride, Todd.”
Frank Curzio: You write about Disney Channel, and they have new content, but that content is mostly for kids. And I have to tell you that was great when everyone was staying home. I mean, my daughters have homework up the wazoo right now. So, they’re going to school, they’re doing their homework during the week. They’re not watching all these shows, whether it’s iCarly, or whatever you’re watching. Again, so they’re coming out with new programs, but when they get home, and at night after they’re done, they’re watching YouTube and TikTok. That’s what they’re watching. They’re not sitting there watching TV.
Frank Curzio: And remember, the TV programs are a lot different than streaming because Disney said, “We’re going all-in on streaming.” They want people to watch all this stuff on streaming. And if you want more and more people to watch stuff on streaming, you got to pay for the best actors and actresses most of the time, not all the time, but most of the time. They don’t have the money to do that because they’re not generating a ton of cash flow. They’re $40 billion in net debt, going to generate $2 million of free cash flow this year. Yes, they have cash on the balance sheet, but you’re competing against Netflix and Time Warner, who the spending $20 billion each on new content. That’s not easy to do.
Frank Curzio: So, with Disney and the kids’ format, you look at that platform, that platform is amazing. I think Netflix has the best platform by far. Disney Plus, the second. Time Warner does not have that good of a platform, but they have amazing content. They have Godzilla. King Kong was great. And also, yeah, you look at Disney and how they’re going to work that out with streaming, but Shang-Chi did amazing. I mean, they talk about Labor Day. Nobody really goes to the movies for Labor Day, but they’re like, “A Labor Day record!”
Frank Curzio: But anyway, again, it’s marketing. Right? And they’re the best marketers in the world. But a lot of those people are for free, and I don’t know if they’re going to have the content where people are going to… Where they have pricing power. I mean, this is incredibly… I mean, DirecTV is just now streaming service. There’s hundreds of companies that have streaming services now, hundreds everywhere. Are you going to have pricing power? I don’t know. I know Netflix does. I think Time Warner may. I don’t know if Disney will. I don’t know, especially if the kids watching this now, they’re going back to school, doing their homework all the time. Right? They’re not home like they were. They stay at home when streaming stocks really soared.
Frank Curzio: But with Disney, look, they’ll figure it out just short term. And for everyone saying, “Oh, they’re a big winner, and they have 120 million subscribers.” A lot of those people are free, so be careful. I mean, I would say to be careful. It’s gone up. We saw with AMC how a stock could go up 20X on just a story on just WallStreetBets and people buying it just like we saw with GameStop. So, was I wrong? Yes. Did I lose a lot of money in it? Yeah. Trying to short that a buying puts. It’s not a ton of money, but I lost money on it. I know some of you did, giving you advice. But I don’t know where this stock’s going.
Frank Curzio: I do know that they’re not in the same shape as… A much, much weaker state than Time Warner, who generates tons, and AT&T, tons of free cash flow. Everybody talks about their debt and 150 billion, 30 billion, 25, $30 billion of free cash flow, which is money coming in from all these services that people pay for, wireless. Even DirecTV is on the decline. Again, people sending in money every single month. They have that, which is awesome. You’re not seeing that cash flow come in, especially with parks. International demand is not there. Broadway is still not there. We see movie theaters finally come back a little bit, which is great news.
Frank Curzio: But for Disney stock to be trading at 50 times forward earnings when earnings are not going to get back to pre-COVID levels until 2024, holy cow, that’s pretty crazy to me. But again, the stock could go higher. I could be wrong on that. But that has been factored into my thesis. But again, they’re going all-in on streaming. Yes, they do have some pretty cool content on Disney Channel, which all the kids watched and were used to watching, but it’s different now. They’re watching TikTok. They’re watching YouTube. That’s what my kids watch. They love YouTube now.
Frank Curzio: A lot of youngsters have YouTube channels. They post crazy stuff all the time, whether it’s on Grand Theft Auto or different games, or whoever. That’s what they’re watching right now. So, with Disney, look, the numbers are going to matter eventually. They just don’t matter right now.
Frank Curzio: Next question. I’ll try to get to these couple really quick. Clifton says, “Hey Frank. CVO and CRA subscriber, that’s Curzio Venture Opportunities. I encourage you to research advisor subscriber. Listened to the podcast this week and still have not seen the opportunity for uranium. Doesn’t Kazakhstan still control the market? Would it just ramp up production to keep other producers out of the market, just like OPEC and oil? The Biden administration could care less and is probably hostile to American producers.”
Frank Curzio: All right, so first of all, Biden… The current infrastructure bill has, what is it, 1.5 or 1.8 billion dedicated to it to get this as clean energy, so Biden supports it, so did Trump support it. So, there’s support on both sides of the aisle because America is the largest consumer of uranium, and we don’t produce anything here. CAMICO North America differently, but we don’t produce anything. So, Kazakhstan had already cut their prices. They already cut production, I mean, to inflate prices. I mean, it’s totally different when we’re looking at OPEC.
Frank Curzio: I mean, OPEC is… You look at U.S. Shell producers, and we found a way to produce massive amounts of oil through new technology. And we knew at 45, $50, that makes sense. And oil stayed high tremendously, and OPEC was trying to cut in and get some of these people out of business, and whatever. That’s different. We produced so much that we became the largest oil producer in the world in the U.S., something that would never… No one ever thought of 10, 15 years ago. So, it makes sense for OPEC to do what they did.
Frank Curzio: When it comes to uranium, there’s no production. People can’t produce unless it’s over $60. What is it, 37, 38 on this recent run? Okay, 80% increase in prices, so it’s in Kazakhstan’s best interest to get this price to 50, 60, 70. We’re still not really going to produce that much in the U.S., hardly anything. Yet, their profits are going to soar, so that thesis doesn’t make sense. Yes, they still control the market, but they’re cutting, and they’ve stayed. They maintained those cuts even at 30, at 29, 28. But OPEC, you wait a certain level, and they’re like, “Oh, okay.” Well, they want to bring prices down. They can produce for a lot less.
Frank Curzio: But no, I think both of those theses, they don’t hold water here to two totally different markets. And we have other options where the U.S. can produce massive amounts of oil to support us and to support consumption and that huge demand, so two totally, totally different markets.
Frank Curzio: And let me take one last question. And by the way, thank you so much. I appreciate that, Clifton. And I want to take one last one here, which is from Justin. He goes, “Frank, thanks for all the great picks. I’ve been a follower since street.com days, and not only have you made me money, but you saved my ass numerous times over the past decade.” I appreciate that. “So my question: If you could choose another profession outside of the financial world research, what would it be? I know you’re great at what you do, but I’m curious to see what else motivates you. Thanks for all the hard work, Justin.”
Frank Curzio: Money-wise, I think the best profession right now, based on risk reward, you should be a criminal in a big city. You can steal almost anything you want. Nobody’s coming after you. If they do, the cops can’t really do anything to you. Right? They got to try to say, “Hey, you’re under arrest. Hey, come here, buddy. Hey, here’s your… Go ahead. Nice and easy.” They can resist arrest, try to grab your gun, and you can’t do anything. It’s okay. Go in there. That’s fine. How much you steal? I mean, don’t steal anything like $5,000 worth of stuff from a bank, but you could steal merchandise for under $200. And what are you going to do? You’re going to get released like the next day. That’s a pretty good job.
Frank Curzio: But risk-reward, become a criminal in a big city. Learn to pick locks, rob homes, and make sure you don’t have a weapon on you, and you’re fine. If you do, you’re going to go to jail even longer. But really, you get caught, you’re out just the next day unless you get caught on a Friday. You have to wait for the weekend because the judges usually don’t work. I’m not speaking from experience, I swear, that I knew that. But it’s pretty crazy. Right? People just running in stores, stealing stuff, and nothing happens to them. And you can wear masks, and no one’s going to say anything to you.
Frank Curzio: But anyway, just kidding. Being serious, a high school basketball coach, varsity for women, maybe for men as well, either or. I mean, that’s my dream. And this dream right here, I love what I do, but this is kind of my father’s dream and me just honoring that. And doing what I’m doing is my way of dealing with not having that father figure anymore since he passed away at such a young age. So, I guess for any son, I mean, your goal is you always want your dad to say, “Hey, are you proud of you?” And you don’t have that to say that.
Frank Curzio: So for me, it’s the worth ethic. It’s building this thing a hundred times bigger than he ever built his company and doing it the right way, providing advice, being honest with people. Even though when you say what’s really on your mind and don’t hold back and tell the truth, sometimes you get some negative emails, and people get pissed, but hey, that’s okay. That’s me. I grew up in New York. That’s how I learned. That’s how he taught me. But this is kind of like his dream. And I’m having fun doing it and got a great team, and I’m building this thing. And I think we’re in the very early innings of really building this into an amazing, amazing place, and that’s my motivation. But without that, for retire, or I don’t do this anymore, which is not going to happen for a very long time, so don’t worry about it, you Curzio One members.
Frank Curzio: I could tell you that, yeah, being a high school basketball coach on a varsity level, I mean, JV would be okay, but for women, I think women are great, especially having girls and stuff like that, but that’s something I’m extremely passionate about. And I think I could teach kids a lot, a lot about that game, something I played for over 30 years that I love. So guys, hopefully, you join the new format, but that’s it for me.
Frank Curzio: I thank you so much for listening. I really appreciate all your support. Be sure to listen to my interview tomorrow because that person is someone who’s directly responsible to helping you make a lot of money. Actually, a first-time guest, and I’ll give you a little bit of a hint. Almost every CEO investor and Curzio member knows this person, even though it’s a first-time guest. They know exactly who this person is. It’s going to be a great interview. Again, thanks so much for the support. And I’ll see you guys then. Take care.
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility.