The country is on the edge of its seat right now, as key battleground states continue to count votes for the hotly contested 2020 U.S. presidential election.
No one is willing to make any official predictions right now—which is smart, since nothing about this election has been predictable.
Andrew Horowitz, founder and president of Horowitz & Company, returns to the podcast to discuss the potential outcomes of the election… and which state is most crucial right now.
Andrew also shares several ideas he likes… and helps explain how to position and protect yourself, no matter who wins this election in the end. [3:03]
Plus, why you need to be prepared for the election results to drag out for a long time. [52:37]
- Guest: Andrew Horowitz, president and founder of Horowitz & Company [3:03]
- Educational: Why election results could drag out for a long time [52:37]
Wall Street Unplugged | 746
While everyone else is holding their breath, do this
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines, heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street, right to you on Main Street.
Frank Curzio: What’s going on out there? It’s November, 4th. I’m Frank Curzio host of the Wall Street Unplugged Podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. So big news here: The Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Great news, right? That’s what everybody wants to talk about today. In all seriousness, what a night. And I’m not saying that in a good way. Actually, the night was pretty much a complete waste of everyone’s time, taking hundreds of millions of people tuning in. That’s what we’re doing, tuning to this thing. And we are taping this at 1:00 PM on November 4th, Wednesday, one day after the election. And we still don’t have a clear cut winner.
Frank Curzio: So for me, I was up ’till 3:00 AM. I think Biden came out and had his speech first, which is pretty cool. And then Trump didn’t speak ’till 3:00 AM. And that speech went on talking about how he thinks the system’s corrupt. As far as he’s concerned, he won the election. But I think he knew that we were going to see a major shift in Michigan, Wisconsin, overnight, state that he was basically winning pretty handily when everyone went to bed last night. It was constant by 4%. Michigan by a large amount; Pennsylvania he’s still up. But again, a lot of votes need to be cast, though. Or not cast, but counted. And all of this reversed when a lot of us woke up today. But for me, I have to ask, why did so many states, if you’re looking at Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, just stopped counting votes around 11:00 PM yesterday? It was kind of weird.
Frank Curzio: They’re not talking about counting the mail-in ballots, though. But even the in-person votes that are done electronically. And everyone knows the date of the election, and you have tons of volunteers. Even Florida was able to finish its count, for the most part, on election day, November 3rd. But this is America. We have the greatest technology in the world. We have lots of smart people. Yet, there’s not a few guys at MIT or Harvard that know how to count? Because what we have right now, no matter who wins the election, no matter who wins, it’s not going to feel legit by either side. One group is going to think they were cheated, the way it is right now.
Frank Curzio: So there’s a lot of topics we need to discuss here, like, which I’m surprised, I’m just going to say it, is about who may win the election. Why the polls are completely, completely useless. And, most important, what a Biden win, along with a Republican Senate, which that’s the odds as of now, again 1:00 PM on Wednesday, that’s the odds… What’s probably going to happen; that’s the favorite. But what this means also for your portfolio. Now, I’m bringing my buddy, my friend, All-Star analyst, portfolio manager… I’m going to keep going here: Proud chef, expert fisherman, most brilliant guy I know, who’s also the host of the Disciplined Investor Podcast. And that is my buddy, Andrew Horowitz. What’s going on, buddy?
Andrew Horowitz: Hey, what’s up Frank?
Frank Curzio: So was that the right introduction and everything?
Andrew Horowitz: Let me say something. Yeah. You got everything right. The fisherman, doing a lot of smoking lately. You know what your problem is, Frank? You make too much sense. That’s the problem. The reality is that, unfortunately, we’re in a situation where it’s the complexities of what’s going on. Let’s just toss out the idea that 2020 is a big mistake that was made in the creation of the calendar. It should’ve just gone like, “You don’t have a 13th floor on an elevator. You should’ve just gone from 2019 to 2021,” because this year is a disaster in every way.
Andrew Horowitz: And this whole election fiasco, which we knew was going to be relatively close, and we knew there was going to be problems due to the fact that, the way voting had to be taking place this year with all the mail-ins. Not a lot of people wanted to go to the polls; but man, it’s just you figure they’ve got years and years of technology advancements, and we’re still down to this kind of horrible level of last minute contests and questions. It’s really very disturbing from the standpoint of being a citizen of the country, where we just can’t get this straight.
Frank Curzio: Why do we even have a date for? It’s supposed to be November 3rd, right? And again, regardless who wins, the fact that people are waking up and we still don’t know… Which by the way, as of right now, the most important state… Do you know what the most important state is right now?
Andrew Horowitz: What is it going to be?
Frank Curzio: It’s Nevada. If Trump loses Nevada, it’s pretty much a done deal. If he wins Nevada, and figuring he wins Georgia, and if we figure he wins North Carolina, then he wins Pennsylvania, doesn’t care about Michigan and Wisconsin, which he looks like he’s losing right now. So,, nobody’s really talking about Nevada, which I’m surprised. Because if he loses that and the latest news about three minutes before we came on is he’s definitely going to do a recount, I believe in Wisconsin. But we’re talking about five states. This is a lot different than 2000. You had one state-
Andrew Horowitz: It’s so close. 10,000, 30,000 votes in a state is extremely close.
Frank Curzio: Yeah. So what are your thoughts on-
Andrew Horowitz: And it’s under less than 1%. So it’s interesting-
Frank Curzio: How do… Go ahead.
Andrew Horowitz: Here’s what’s interesting. The conventional wisdom… Going into this was Biden’s going to win, markets are going to crash. That was where it was at. There was three different scenarios that really were built. First one was, nothing changes. President Trump is re-elected, the Senate stays Republican, and we have a House that is going to be remaining as Democrat-controlled. Okay., that was number one, nothing changes, everything goes along smoothly, as we’ve been going on. The next one was a Biden win with a blue wave. And that was going to mean a significant amount of changes. We’re going to have tax rollbacks, the changes regulatory rollbacks. We’re going to have potential hit squad on the healthcare companies. Marijuana stocks would do really well because Harris is a big proponent of that. And all the things that were going on with that.
Andrew Horowitz: And the third one was Biden with a split Congress, is what it’s looking like right now. And what that means is that any of the things that was really worrying the markets, like the increase in the taxes, the possible change on the corporate tax rate, the estate tax rate, the issue with the step-up in basis, the potential for raising individual taxes, is off the table. But so is the potential for a massive infrastructure deal. So it’s a very confusing circumstance. But one thing we do know that the first two scenarios, whether it was going to be Trump with no change at all or Biden with a split Congress, was going to be kind of good for the market.
Andrew Horowitz: Why is the market rallying? This is a mystery. I got to be honest with you: It’s a total mystery, why it’s moving up so much. Except for the fact that obviously the large cap growth rose up 5% today in the mid-part of the day. That’s led by many of the technology companies that are going to do pretty well, if in fact, Biden is not able to get any kind of tax increase in. So that was a big issue there. But we’re still talking about the initiatives that they do have. They will try to get through, is something that we have to contend with. You got to wonder why everybody’s so jubilant over this. I have no answer.
Frank Curzio: The market was going up… I thought it was going up because Trump was closing in on the polls. Because, to me, Biden was going out there, even when you see what his rallies, he’d be like, “Hey, I’m going to win.” And people beeping their horns.
Andrew Horowitz: Lady Gaga did an event for him. And it was like, “I wish I was invited.” It was like 50 people there. It was like a private event for Lady Gaga. So it was a whole different scenario between the Trump rallies and the Biden handshakes.
Frank Curzio: And I really didn’t get it. I didn’t understand why the market was going up. And people will say, “Well, it looks like Biden’s going to win.” And let’s go into that because let’s go into the polls, which is really important because this is a real joke. These guys were a disaster. So, I’m going to bring something up here. I’m going to start this out. Just NBC News polling, they pulled the average, had Biden up seven percentage points over Trump. He’s going to probably win, this is a popular vote 2%. Real clear politics, general election, six and a half points, 538, which one of the most accurate in 2016, still got Trump wrong. They gave by an 8.4% advantage.
Frank Curzio: But now when you’re looking on November 2nd, heading in, Florida, average poll sites, Trump losing by two and a half percent. He’s going to win by at least 3%. Double the margin for 2016 and more than 5% of the difference. I thought the polling errors were like 3%, three and a half percent. Michigan average poll had Biden win by 8%. He’s not going to win by 8%, but he may win. Texas had Trump up by 1% on average, they thought they were going to win. And yet I think Biden won the fewest counties in Texas as a Democrat in decades. Ohio was in favor of Biden by 1%, Trump is up 8%. In Pennsylvania-
Andrew Horowitz: This is a long way of you saying these polls suck.
Frank Curzio: I’m just going through these numbers, which they have Wisconsin at 10%.
Andrew Horowitz: I don’t know where they get their… First of all, the polling companies are toast. If there was a polling company that was publicly traded, I’d short it.
Frank Curzio: Do you know how much it costs for these polls to be… There’s tons of them, but why are they so wrong? Why should we believe them? What’s wrong with the system? Because a lot of people even based their decisions on these polls and say, “Wow, why go even vote for Trump or why…” Whatever it is, but it has influenced-
Andrew Horowitz: It’s also the money in advertising that’s spent to try to pop up some polling areas that aren’t strong. That’s a big issue. You have campaign schedule that goes along with that. There’s a lot of things that go with it, but I’m going to tell you something: The polls are only as good as the information that you get out of it. And it’s like a situation right now that I look at similarly with analysts and economists. Can you tell me why we should be following any analyst on any stock right now, or any kind of economist on…? They’re so off. They’re so off. It’s either the data that’s being input is really poor, the analysts just are terrible at what they do, or on a bit of a different circumstance, particularly with companies, where it’s just impossible to really gather that kind of information up.
Andrew Horowitz: And you have to wonder, when you look at other polls, like confidence. You look at the various University of Michigan confidence ratings… Are these even accurate? And I think it’s a flaw in just the data collection process as well as the analysis. And maybe it’s, I don’t know, a different type of person that’s going to be answering the questions. Maybe there’s a lack of truthfulness in some of this, for some reason. There was that closet Trump voter phenomenon that we heard about. But I don’t know, there’s no reason… It’s a good guide, but it’s not something to hang your hat on. Just like we saw the estimates. What was it? 83% of companies beat estimates last quarter. 83%. Frank what’s the usual? 65%.
Andrew Horowitz: So, I think we have to take all this with a grain of salt. I think part of right now with some of this is,, of course the strangeness of 2020. But the polls have really been off the last two elections and it may be a Trump phenomenon that’s involved. Because they were kind of okay before that, we can put some reliability in it, but I don’t know. What’s the point anyway of the polls? Let me ask you this. Let me throw this back at you. Aside from where are you going to advertise and you’re going to campaign, for the politicians, what’s the point of the polls otherwise?
Frank Curzio: I don’t know. I understand internal polls where you could say, “Hey, listen, we’ll lose any of these counties, but it’s internal.” But to make these public, it’s only to influence people’s decisions, I would think, right?
Andrew Horowitz: I would think so. Maybe it’s good for the betting sites that now you can bet on anything. We can bet on the under over how long this interview is going to be. I’m sure there’s something on some site somewhere where it’s going to be. Or it’s going to be those things that are now betable, where there’s something on it. Obviously those companies are probably paying for the information to procreate the odds. To then put it out so they can do the work to make sure they’re not going to get scalped on any of this. But I don’t know what the purpose of the polls are, unless it’s just a talking point for the news and for the campaigns themselves.
Frank Curzio: When I’m looking at what’s going on with Vegas, this is the first time where they really had this wrong. Right now, they have, I think Biden over 70% winning. They had him at, I think 68… Actually 72, at 10 in the morning. Then they had him pretty much in the 60s. Then at mid-day, they had him down to 28%. I’m talking about 11 o’clock last night. And now he’s at 70%. So you never see, these are people betting with money. That’s why you trust them because they’re putting millions and millions of dollars. To see that flip back and forth, it’s pretty surprising I guess. Even they didn’t know.
Andrew Horowitz: There’s so much money sloshing through the system right now, due to just all sorts of reasons. Whether it’s the stimulus program, whether it’s low interest rates, whatever you want to call it, I just think people that have money are just like saying, “Well, you know what? If I run out, I’ll get more. There’s going to be another stimulus program, or I’ll figure a way to make money. It’s a very great time.” And I’m not sure that’s a good commentary on the long-term opportunity for a growth in the economy if people are just being rather, just negligent with their spending habits. And I’m not sure that the people that are betting have all the data or they just want something to do.
Andrew Horowitz: I don’t know about you, I don’t really bet on sports, but sometimes I do. And the reason I do it is so I’m more engaged. I have more of a desire to watch it. Sometimes through the football season in years past, I’m like, “Ah, whatever they get.” But if I bet on it, even $10, to be honest with you, I feel like I got to watch the game. It’s more exciting to me to be involved in it for money. And our country over the last number of years has really been focusing on our purses and our pocketbooks and our wallets more than anything else.
Andrew Horowitz: And I think that’s a sign of what’s going on with those kinds of betting sites. I’m not sure if those are anything. It is a phenomena these have come into play like even weekend market betting sites where you can bet on the stock markets over the weekend. You’ve seen these? But there’s not a big pool of people doing this. And I don’t know, I don’t think this is… The gambling part of all this, we know what happens. Casinos are not built on the winners. They’re built on the losers. And those casinos are pretty big. And I think that it’s house-favored and it’s built that way and it’s a great business. So it excites people. Everybody wants to win. Listen, if people walk into a casino, Frank, you’ve been into a casino, right, Frank?
Frank Curzio: Of course.
Andrew Horowitz: And you walk in the floor and you see those people putting the quarters in that machine that goes… You know what I’m saying? And they’re like, they think they’re going to win. Or the people that think they’re going to push the button and it’s going to go right through that hole for that wad of $100 bills, they never win. They never win. But the excitement of sticking those quarters in is just, they can’t stop.
Frank Curzio: No. And believe it or not, talking about the gambling aspect, there’s 25 states now, I think there was three that approved gambling. I’m not too sure which one they are. I think it was Louisiana and two others, but now that’s 25 states that allow some form of legalized gambling. Which again, that and marijuana, how do all these states with COVID and everything and people moving out of the major areas going to generate revenue? That’s another story. But I want to go one more thing to election before we go into what this means for everyone’s portfolio. Because I’m going to bring this up really quick so you could see it as well because people are probably going to ask.
Frank Curzio: All right, what’s going to happen in the coming days? So we know right now what switched here was Wisconsin. And right now it’s 239 to 213, for Trump. And I’m doing an actual for those who you just saw on iTunes watching this. We’re also taping this on video, but I’m going to break it down for everybody. But if you look at Trump, that’s why I said Nevada is the most important, because if he wins… Or let’s go to Georgia. Assume that he’s going to win Georgia and North Carolina-
Andrew Horowitz: Look at you. You’re like the CNN guys.
Frank Curzio: Oh, that guy’s great. What’s the guy? King.
Andrew Horowitz: I don’t think he’s slept in weeks. He hasn’t slept in weeks, poor guy.
Frank Curzio: I can tell you, they tried to do like the Fox thing back and forth, man. It didn’t even work. They were light years behind that guy. That guy knows every county. So we go here, and we assume that this is going to be Wisconsin and Michigan. They’re going to be blue. So now it’s important because if Trump loses Nevada, but happens to win Pennsylvania, he’s up. But they’re going to count a lot of Democrats. And a lot of people think that’s going to favor them, but he’s up a lot in them. So if you click this, he’s at 264, this is Nevada here. So he needs Nevada to win. If he doesn’t have Nevada, that goes to Biden, he’s done. So Nevada right now is the most part and nobody’s really talking about it, which is interesting. Now-
Andrew Horowitz: What about Alaska? You missed Alaska.
Frank Curzio: Alaska is kind of three. Right now, as of Alaska, I think Trump’s up, it’s favoring him. But that’s really not going to make a big deal. But let me ask you this, Andrew. Biden win, that’s what it looks like, those are the odds, the Vegas. And we have the Senate, it’s going to be maintained by Republicans, which is pretty much a good scenario. Because I think for the stock market anyway. Republicans have all the branches again, total control. I think it gets pretty crazy with some of these extreme measures.
Frank Curzio: Are you worried about the market and what we’re going to see with stocks? Because this could actually take months if they’re going to recount some of these things. They’re going to go to the Supreme Court. What’s going to happen to stocks? And does it matter because the Senate was very, very important where I think people think the stimulus was going to get passed and we were going to be okay?
Andrew Horowitz: I think that generally there was… First of all, let’s go back to 2016. The pattern that we’re seeing right now, which was a down move, the two weeks prior to the 2016 election. Coming down to the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500. This time… Excuse me, down the 200-day moving average of the S&P 500. Popped up two or three days in advance of the election. On election day, it popped. It’s almost identical. Now the difference is the S&P 500 didn’t get down to the 200-day moving average, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average did. And we’re seeing it just an out-sized rally and everything.
Andrew Horowitz: As a matter of fact, overnight when we had these numbers, it didn’t look like the Dow Jones was going to be in problematic zone due to the potential for, “Listen. Hey, they’re going to attack healthcare. And it may be rough on some of the banks and all that.” There’s all sorts of concerns. We don’t even know if this talk about him putting in Elizabeth Warren as Treasury Secretary, what that would do. So we don’t know the makeup of the Cabinet. We don’t know the makeup of the Federal Reserve. Who’s going to be involved in that. Who knows, he puts Rick Warren in charge of the Federal Reserve. So the thing is that it’s a very difficult time. And let me just say one other thing. Back in year 2000, when we had the election that was contested due to the hanging chads, were you living down here back then, in 2000?
Frank Curzio: In 2000? No. I wasn’t in Florida.
Andrew Horowitz: I was a Florida resident and we had this hanging chads, we all hung our heads, we were like, “Oh, it’s Florida, again. It’s screwing everything up.” But into the end of the year, the markets lost about 7%. So we have a situation that you have the possibility if this goes on and it gets contested and it goes back and forth and possibly. Then you have to ask, “Okay. So what if it does go back and forth? What if right now we just exchanged Biden for Trump or Trump for Biden? Is there any change to the underlying?” I don’t see it. There are different initiatives. We know that Biden is probably going to try to come up with an infrastructure plan. He’s probably going to try to come up with a tax plan. But the probability is going to be blocked by the Senate. Unless, maybe some of the people in the Senate say, “Well, we don’t have to follow the president anymore. Because if we don’t, he’s going to name call us, call us out on that.” I don’t think Biden’s going to be doing that, the tweet storms that Trump did.
Andrew Horowitz: So maybe they’ll be a little bit more relaxed and able to make a good policy. But I don’t see much of a difference here between the two. I think it’s really all about when are we going to have the next stimulus? What’s the size and scope of the stimulus? And what’s going to happen in terms of the pandemic? Now, the question that a lot of people ask is, “If Biden comes in, is he going to shut down the economy?” Because we have a significant rise in the coronavirus case count. And however we want to discuss that we can. But just from the statistics that we know, this is what’s being reported. There’s a rise, I think over 50,000 hospitalizations now and all this other stuff. Now, whether we can say it’s right, it’s wrong, whether the statistics are wrong, this is what the numbers are for the moment.
Andrew Horowitz: So is he going to shut down the economy? Is he going to shut down and put stay-at-home orders or put partials or curfews? I don’t think he’s going to do that. I don’t think he has the ability to do that. I think it’s the individual states. Now, there may be a recommendation. There may be an attempt to do a national, a mask mandate. I don’t know how that’s going to hurt the economy. It doesn’t seem likely that it could hurt the economy. It just means you have a lot of people pissed off they have to wear a mask. But I don’t necessarily think that there’s a significant difference because either one, whether it’s President Trump that gets in or Biden, we’re going to get the stimulus. That is what the markets are focusing in on. They want finality in this election. I think there’s a relief rally of a giant exhale of, “Oh, it’s over. Thank God or close to over.” We know that it’s beyond the date.
Andrew Horowitz: But the VIX dropped from like 35 or something like that down to like 28, 28 and a half. We’ve got the Dow Jones up 700 points. We’ve got the large cap growth up 5%. We got the small caps, actually making some headway to the upside when they were down all day. Everything seems to be going okay. Even some of the names that were a problem. Some of the gun stocks and stores that sell are a little bit down. Some of the retailers that are probably most effected by stimulus are a little bit lower. Because if there was going to be a blue wave, they think that there’s going to be a big amount of stimulus and there’s going to be a bit more restrained. I’m hoping that the markets can get a little bit beyond this. We know eventually there’s going to be a president. Eventually there’ll be a presidential pick and then we’ll just have business as usual, without the tweets.
Frank Curzio: One is if Trump loses or decides not to tweet anymore, what is-
Andrew Horowitz: Well, he’s not going to decide not to.
Frank Curzio: But say he’s not, what’s going to happen to CNBC and MSNBC? They’re not going to do it themselves. What about Seth Meyers, all these people? Everything is Trump. Every book that’s on the best seller list, whether they like him or not, it’s Trump. It’s going to be weird if Biden wins not having him. But I know there’ll be tweet storms and he’s not going to go down without a fight, even if they declare him the loser. I think we all know he’s just going to go a little crazy, but let’s talk about-
Andrew Horowitz: Well, the problem for Trump is it’s a totally different problem for Trump. Aside from the fact that he’s going to get a major ding to his self-image, into his self-worth and feeling that, “Oh, he lost.” We know his personality, he’s going to make it look like there was some kind of a scam. There was some kind of scandal involved in this and then he’ll move on. The question’s going to be though, what’s his future going to hold if some of these lawsuits from New York and all that start to pop up when he’s an ordinary citizen without pardon abilities?
Andrew Horowitz: So we’ll see who he pardons and what his thinking is on the way out, if that’s the case. Again, I think that he was very good for the markets and that he was a major cheerleader constantly. Joe Biden’s a little bit more of a Debbie Downer. I think that’s unquestionable. A lot slower pace. I don’t see Biden playing golf as much, just saying. I think Biden will replace the amount of time that Donald Trump played golf with naps, probably.
Frank Curzio: He’s going to be over 80 by the time the four years is up. It’s pretty scary because I know why they didn’t want to do too many events. It wasn’t just, you’re picking on him with some of the gaps. It was like every day he was just… And you were looking at it going… Again, as someone who was an undecided voter, as someone who cares about, you’re going to be the leader of the free world. You want to make sure that you can have that job. And I think he can, but it was just the more he was out there, it was kind of crazy. Where Trump, I think-
Andrew Horowitz: I don’t think this vote was anything about, “Oh my God, I love Biden. And what he’s doing.” I don’t think that’s the case. That was not the vote. The vote was, “I don’t want Trump.” That was the vote. Or, “I want Trump,” either one. It was, “Hey, I want to vote for Trump or I don’t want to vote for Trump. That’s it.” That was the whole vote.
Frank Curzio: No, I agree. So let’s assume that Biden and what he campaigned on that he’s going to take a more conservative approach. To me, that’s not factored in. And this isn’t just like what he was saying because we have now New York City, San Francisco, Chicago, Massachusetts, rolling back. They’re rolling back, even though if you’re outside the danger zone, which means if you’re over 70 or if you have an underlying condition. The chance of you dying from COVID is less than 0.6%. And it goes lower every day, even though we have more tests, more people going out there, obviously COVID cases are going to rise. We know that, it’s fine. But we all know people who had COVID. Most of them are okay. If we decide to close the economy, because… Jeffrey’s does a great tracker that I posted on my Twitter account, @FrankCurzio, that shows everything in terms of traffic, whether it’s foot traffic, whether it’s transit.
Frank Curzio: And all these things week over week, it was getting, in terms of the percentage of the economy that’s opened. And it’s around 75, 80% when you include everything and it’s been going up, up, up, week by week. Now you’ve seen down ticks. This definitely is affecting the GDP. And people say, “Well, it’s the states that matter.” I get it. But remember all the Republicans are together and all the Democrats are together. And if you don’t follow the top guy, he’s not going to have your back when it comes to election time. So do you think we could see a lot of these states roll back some of these requirements? Because I could tell you people who own businesses they’re done. They’re ready to work. They want to get out there. They know the statistics. If that happens, does that worry you when it comes to the markets?
Andrew Horowitz: It worries me from a lot of aspects. And I think that’s why they need to really get some stimulus ready before they do so. It’s interesting that we saw that Germany’s rolling back, UK’s shut down for 30 days. We see France in bad shape. Israel was shut down for three weeks, a few weeks back. El Paso, Texas is like the first to really come down on a stay-at-home order. You’re seeing a lot of things around the world that are questioning why this is happening. We can get into the whole discussion of, how are you counting deaths anyway, by the way? So the UK, the way they count deaths, I believe it’s, if you have COVID and within 28 days later, I think it’s 28, you die, it’s a COVID death. So in other words, if I get COVID and let’s say I’m asymptomatic, 14 days later, I get hit by a bus, COVID death.
Andrew Horowitz: So I’m not sure what this, there’s a couple of theories. It’s the new world order on the build-back better concept. And this is kind of a globalist viewpoint of trying to take control of everybody. And maybe that’s something. And I just don’t think that we’re going to see a shutdown, unless things get really, really bad. But at the end of the day, Frank, the fact is we’re closer to the potential vaccine. And even if we don’t have a vaccine, a lot of the treatments are a lot better. And even if the treatments aren’t a lot better, the understanding of the disease is a lot better. And therefore, it’s being treated even without some of these other interventions, a lot better.
Andrew Horowitz: At first people didn’t know what the hell it was so you didn’t go to the doctor. And by the time it progressed, you were in bad shape. Now, if you, “Oh my God, I got something.” Or, “My throat’s dry. Oh, my God. I have a cough.” If I’m anywhere and I cough, everybody leaves the room. And it could’ve been just that a fly flew in my throat. And I think though that we’re much more oriented to it. Some places, some places not. But I think that it’s going to be hard pressed to really shut down the way that we did before. And even if we don’t though, we have something, I think I mentioned this to you before that we’re calling PVSD, which is post virus stress disorder.
Andrew Horowitz: And I don’t care who you are and how much you think that this is either a hoax or it’s not true. In the back of your mind it’s like, “I’m not getting too close to that person. I’m not really shaking their hand. I’m not hugging and kissing if I don’t know where they’ve been. I’m not going to be sharing food.” Like the old days, “Hey, taste this. Here you go.” Not happening anymore. So it’s kind of a different world right now. And I think a lot of that does naturally stop foot traffic. But one of the things, Frank that I think we have to say about 2020 is that there’s something remarkable that happened this year.
Andrew Horowitz: And I think it’s all about the incredible amount of adaption and… I guess I would say resiliency. This ability, not only for companies, if we talk about companies clearly, no question about that. Snap your finger, they are now going and they’re figuring out a way to do things online. They’re figuring how to do takeout orders, like what happened with Chipotle or Domino’s Pizza for that matter, really ramped it up incredibly. And Burger King, et cetera. Chick-fil-A doesn’t need anything because they have lines around the block, no matter what they do. But you look at these companies making incredible amounts of money, realizing that you know what? People will adapt. People will change and they’re very resilient. And people have learned to adapt.
Andrew Horowitz: So now, instead of me worrying about stuff and running out to the store and buying all this stuff. I figure out what I need, how to get it. I can go to Amazon, I can go to this one online and go that one online. I can work from home. Most people probably have an office or a setup at home. They can work from home if they have to. So it’s not this panic anymore. The panic is gone. It’s like during a war. If the first day you’re in a city and you’re getting bombed from overhead. Probably it’s going to be a lot different in your life than 30 days, 60 days later, where there’s still planes going over and all. That shell shock is over, but you’ve learned to adapt and be resilient in that kind of environment. And that’s where we are. We’re in a war, and we’ve learned to live within that war. Companies have done the same, learned how to work on their profitability. And of course with the help of the government providing, has really changed the way we do things. Will we ever go back? I don’t know. Frank, you’re going to the gym or did you buy a Peloton?
Frank Curzio: I took the plunge and I bought a Peloton. Yes. Which is a stock I think I was saying, I think it’s going to be a good short around the 80s and wherever, let’s just say it’s a lot higher than that. But I said, wait, till the momentum to stop, it never stopped. But that goes to my next question, Andrew. So is it the Peloton, the Zooms, the Teladoc Health? We may start to realize, especially when it comes to real estate, I just talked to one of my best friends whose family came over here 40 years ago. And bought a bunch of houses in Queens, New York and tons of garages and everything. And he told me, he said, “The value of real estate is going down tremendously.” Obviously he’s tied into the real estate industry. He says, “People have left. They’re leaving in droves. They’re leaving like crazy.” He’s like, “Now about 15% of the people haven’t paid him rent, of all those tenants.”
Frank Curzio: But is this like a permanent change? Before you answer that, I’m going to share an interesting stat. And this is from another researcher. I forgot who put it. I think it was Evercore, which they did a survey of the percentage of people that feel positive about going to theaters, about going to gyms, about going to restaurants and stuff. So I was really surprised that it was theaters, people are more scared today and gyms. Are more to going to these two places than they were in May. So are we looking at permanent change here? Which we’re going to see in some industries, but this is still going to impact a lot of companies positive and negative, right?
Andrew Horowitz: There’s a lot of things you have to think about when it comes to people having this long-term concern if they’ve never had it. I talked to you about this yesterday, Frank. And it seems to me that either we all need to get it and somehow live through it as best as possible. Or a vaccine comes that has good efficacy and good results. Or we’re going to be living in this fear for a long time. And it’s understandable, I get it, obviously. And when you think about the theater, packing people in and then people singing at you. And if you’ve ever sat close in a theater, you can see the spit coming right off of their lips the whole time. So that’s obviously traveling through the air. You look at gyms, people sweating and their bodily fluids all over the gym stuff. I don’t care how much you clean that, it’s still a concern.
Andrew Horowitz: And certain restaurants and certain transportation and cruise lines, which was a Petri dish for disease before this even was invented, this whole COVID thing. We had the Norovirus. It was a big issue that you’re washing your hands and they got guys singing. Have you been on a cruise lately? They’ve got a guy singing, “Wash your hands, wash your hands.” They’ve got guitarists and guys. As you’re coming in to eat, they’re singing with mariachi bands and all this stuff. I’m not kidding either. And is that serious?
Andrew Horowitz: So I think it’s going to be change maybe for the better. I have traveled all over Asia. And one of the first things you notice when you go to Asia is a lot of people wear masks because they know from a pollution standpoint, as well as the potential for disease. It’s important to try to either say safe or I guess not give it. Now, there’s a lot of mask discussions out there that they work, they don’t work. They work, they don’t work in Sweden. We could bring in all this other good stuff. I don’t think hurt. They can’t hurt.
Andrew Horowitz: And I would tell you that I think that other diseases are probably going to go down. Other airborne types of things will probably go down as we have a different level of hygiene and watch where we go, watch what we do, watch what we eat. That could be a better thing in the long-term if you think about it. But I do think there are a lot of industries that are pretty much sunk and that are not going to be able to come back. Malls, I think CBL went bankrupt this week. You have that as an issue. Major restaurant chains, small restaurants that rely on people in-house.
Frank Curzio: These restaurants, you probably know restaurants, some of them are business owners, bar owners. These people need to be operating at 85% to make ends meet. So even though they’re open or they just reopened and some of them at 75%. They’re still below that threshold, which means it’s creating even more emphasis or creating more emphasis for that Stimulus Package to pass. Because I have friends who own gyms and bars, they are getting crushed. They had livings and now they’re in tons of debt.
Frank Curzio: We’re talking about… You know companies will get to the analysts in a second. They don’t model for 80% revenue declines in six months. Nobody does. It’s like, “Hey, 15, 20%.” Never that. Now you’re coming back. And people are like, “Oh, well, it’s open.” They need to be open a lot more than that. And now that you’re rolling this back, it’s dangerous, but it just places greater emphasis on the Stimulus plan. Because look, we had Disney come out and I just came from Disney, it’s hard.
Andrew Horowitz: And you had a miserable time. Miserable.
Frank Curzio: It’s hard to wear a mask outdoors the whole day at a park. We had sore throats. We saw people yelling at people when they took them off and they weren’t supposed to. Even when they were eating, they were in the middle of the aisle, not on the side. It just really wasn’t that good of a time. But I’m with you when it comes to masks. I think, listen, if I’m 75, you should be wearing a mask. And if I see a 75-year-old, I’m going to wear a mask and I’m wearing masks all the time indoors just to make them feel better. Because if they get it, they’re at a serious risk of COVID.
Frank Curzio: Now getting into the bars and the restaurants where you’re talking about different industries. Does it matter who wins to you right now in terms of how you could position your portfolio going forward. Like I say, gold and Bitcoin are great investments, no matter who comes in, just the environment for that. I’m going to spend more money, I’m fine. But is it going to change your current allocation now say if all of a sudden they announced Trump the winner, which should be a surprise right now. Would you be like, “Oh, wait, I got to switch things around. Or would you just help clients?” Or is it like, “Hey, I’m set up no matter who wins because it’s going to be split in terms of the Senate.”
Andrew Horowitz: So yeah, we try to come in a little bit advance. What’s interesting is on our trading portfolio, which is a long short strategy, the TDI Managed Growth Strategy. Basically we came into the last two months at about a 27% overall equity allocation. And that wasn’t just because we were like, “Okay, we’re nervous. Let’s do…” No it’s because when we ran the screens, when we ran the fundamentals, when we did all the work to get to that point. Only a certain number of about 22 stocks, came through the screen that make the criteria. Which is no different criteria than it was, let’s say nine months ago when 60 names came through. So I’m like, “Oh, well. Hey, wait a second.” When that happens, it automatically puts up on our antennas and we’re like, “Okay, what’s the rule?” Well, the rule is you have this percentage of the portfolio based on these numbers, and therefore, you invest that way.
Andrew Horowitz: So we sidestepped that last move lower. And we’re not going to really put in a lot more emphasis into the market until we can find stocks that meet those criteria. On our other portfolios, which are more asset allocation oriented, our global allocations. We came in, unfortunately we did have various slights, a slant towards value on the Large Cap. So we still have the growth side, but we had a little bit of a slant to the value thinking that there would be some potential for a reversion trade, which never materialized over the last year.
Andrew Horowitz: But still when I look at my portfolio, the composition of it, it’s holding up really well. I do think that emerging markets will do better. I think that the value of the U.S. equities a little bit overdone. I think that the potential for outside U. S. has some slight advantage, especially if in fact the dollar continues moving lower. If Biden comes in, I think that you can see better potential for inflation that gives us a trade in gold and silver, for example, possibly the commodities. Interest rates are going to stay low, it seems forever and ever and ever and ever. So I think that housing and real estate is an interesting place to be.
Andrew Horowitz: So we’ve set ourselves up pretty well. We’ll probably do some tweaking after we get beyond, I would say towards December, till we see who’s actually in. And what they actually put on the table, because who knows what that is? If they put a big stimulus package on the table, that’s enormous and it gets through, that’s going to be really negative to the dollar. That’ll probably benefit some of the commodities gold, precious metals. And the opportunity depending on where we sit here with the yield curve, which definitely widened out over the last two or three weeks, that was really beneficial to the financials. Will benefit the value side of the equation. Whether they’re going to look to break up the big monopolies is another discussion. Whether they’re going to bring on and be very big proponents of marijuana, for example. And we saw a couple of states get passed, I think recreational was one or two. Was it New Jersey? I think it was New Jersey, that got it passed.
Frank Curzio: Three’s at least two or three.
Andrew Horowitz: So we’ll make some interim changes. But we are set right now for a very highly valuated market that has the potential of teetering for all sorts of reasons. Whether it’s going to be a shutdown, whether it’s going to be a pandemic that spikes. Whether it’s going to be people self-shut, providing themselves a self-stay-at-home order, being more clearly away from anything big box. Leaning more towards a lot of the digital advertising.
Andrew Horowitz: So playing that side of the equation. I think that obviously there’s going to be a desire for Biden to possibly reenter the Paris Accord, roll back some of that. Also a lot of renewable energy so you have some of the EVs, the solars, some of the companies that supply some of that. So you’ve got to look at where there’s going to be, but I try to be ahead of this, not reactive.
Frank Curzio: And do you have any names that you think are going to benefit? And again, we’re passing earning season where, like you said, they’re 83%, I think it was of companies that reported earnings. Because earnings are still down for so many of these companies 20% year over year. But the bar was so low that it’s going to be interesting. And we still have lots of companies to report over the next week, especially small caps. But what are some of the names that you look at, if you could share a few? And I know it’s hard-
Andrew Horowitz: I still think there’s an opportunity in the names that relate to health, but are virtual. So you’ve heard of Livango and you’ve heard of Teladoc, but Amwell, American Well, that’s a company that’s really interesting, A-M-W-L. It’s an IPO that recently happened, two months ago or so. In today’s market, it was up. Last, I saw 11% today. Obviously everything’s screaming higher. But if we are going to have a change in somewhere and there’s going to be a difference in the attack from the Biden and the next administration. And if we do see the continuation of this pandemic, I think that will be something that is going to really be taken in by a lot of companies. So you have that name. There are some other names, for example Terminix is a company we like. They have couple different sides of this company, but basically they have some cleaning and sanitation, but also they’ve been doing really well.
Andrew Horowitz: Who else do I like? I didn’t make the list. Oh, let’s see if I’ve got something over here. I got a big list here. Let’s see if I like anything I can give you from this list that’d be interesting. You have to look at your guns and question if those are going to be something that’s going to be good. Because there can be a lot of potential backlash in this administration with the guns. Let me get some good news here that would be good. Some of the pot stocks. You can look at NJ, you can look at Tilray. I think those are interesting. Sallie Mae is a name that we hold that I really do like, I think that’s interesting. If you have the mortgages expanding as we’ve seen them for some time. Defense names, well they’re always going to be funded, pretty, pretty darn well, so I don’t think there’s an issue with that. Yes. But again, that’s because probably they thought Biden would come in and not do much.
Andrew Horowitz: Some of your climate changes. You have again TAN is the solar ETF. I’ll give you that as an example. You have the first solars. We were just stung by a company. SolarEdge is the name of it. And we bought it a little bit below where it is now, ramped up like 30%. Came out with earnings, beat the crap out of earnings. Although some of the revenue numbers weren’t as good and their outlook was pretty ugly. But this is kind of a company that’s, I’ll call it picks and shovels type of company involved in the solar space. And that could be interesting too. And then the EVs, obviously there are so many of them out there, some of the SPACS and all that. It’s interesting to look at.
Andrew Horowitz: I would consider for a long shot… Let me give you the long shot for you, okay? Two things, Planet Fitness, I’m still thinking. I don’t have a position on this, but Planet Fitness. I just don’t understand how they’re going to survive. But okay. It’s getting to a point that is, I think, very shortable, number one. Number two. I think really, if you want to do long shot kind of thing, look at the cruise lines. They’re eventually going to be cruising again. I know a lot of people who are like, “I’m ready to go.” I’m like, “Oh, okay.” But the cruise lines, I think are interesting. They’ve been decimated, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, Carnival. They’ll push out their cruising, I think Royal ‘till the end of this year. But when they do, and if they do start up, the CDC just cleared them for sailing. So I don’t know how they did that by the way in the midst of all of this. But they did, there was some clearance there.
Andrew Horowitz: But I think that you have an opportunity long-term in some of these. They have a lot of debt. They’ve done a lot of weird deals of selling some of their boats and all that. Just like the planes and airlines sold, debt-backed by their frequent flyer, miles, debt-backed by their runways or their… Not their runways. Their gangplanks. What do you call that thing that you had attached to the plane, you walk through the walkways, the breezeways? Whatever those are called. Anyway. So there’s a good bunch of names. I think Apple… I think Facebook’s going to be in some trouble. I always think that though. I’m not a big fan of Facebook. It just came on our list, actually, Facebook. We like Adobe. Am I giving you enough names here? I’m going to stop right there just so I don’t get myself in trouble with a lot more.
Frank Curzio: Yeah, no. That’s true, because everyone’s going to highlight the losers, not the winners, you know how it goes. So all right. Andrew, thank you. We spoke yesterday and I just thought this would be great because there are media personalities. There are so many personalities in terms of politics. But today it’s hard, when we’re publishing on Wednesday. Sometimes I’ll get some of the podcasts done on Tuesday or even an interview depending on the guest, because we couldn’t do an interview on Tuesday without knowing what the result was. I don’t know if we still know the results, but everyone’s really more busy than they are ever. Because everyone’s trying to figure this out, especially on the political end or whatever, our end. But if someone wants to learn more about you-
Andrew Horowitz: Well, wait, before we do that, can I just say something?
Frank Curzio: Mm-hmm.
Andrew Horowitz: Can I play you a clip of what analysts are saying? Did you hear the Tom Lee clip from CNBC yesterday or the day before about his prediction dependent on what happens with the election?
Frank Curzio: No.
Andrew Horowitz: So can I play that for you?
Frank Curzio: Yes, I had him on the podcast, by the way. And he got off at me. He was at me. I asked him, I just said, “Listen, do you still think Bitcoin’s going to 20,000?” And he was like, “Why did you even bring that up for? What are you talking about? I never said that.” I’m like, “It’s quoted on like…”
Andrew Horowitz: I think he said 25,000.
Frank Curzio: Whatever he mentioned, but he got mad and he’s like, “You read my research.” I was like, “Actually I don’t read your research.” But that’s okay.
Andrew Horowitz: So listen, this is a one minute clip, okay?
Frank Curzio: Yeah.
Interviewer: And walk us through your three election outcomes and the potential market reaction you’re anticipating.
Tom Lee: Yes. We published a note this morning for our clients. First, I think the base case for markets, especially based on both prediction markets and betting is a Biden win with a blue wave. I think that rally is roughly 10% by cyclical stocks, but some weakness in technology. Because of the spectrum of capital gain tax increases. As well as potential for increased regulation. And if Trump wins, that’s a market surprise.
Tom Lee: We think the rally would actually be larger, 15 to 17% because you’re taking tax increases off the table. You’re taking deregulation or regulation off the table. And I think you’re taking the threat of lockdowns off the table. So I think tech rallies and cyclical’s really big, that’s how you get to 15 to 17. And even if it’s a contested election, I still think you’d get a five or 7% rally. As foremost, we’re still going to have now the window open to do some stimulus. So that’s going to ameliorate market concerns. The Fed likely does-
Andrew Horowitz: So in other words, this guy has every outcome and the market goes up. Which he could be right about that the markets are obviously primed and ready to go into this. But my point, is this getting back to our discussion about analysts and betting odds and economists and polls. Just be careful who you listen to. Yeah, the markets did go up today. Again, I think they were spring loaded to go up to day anyway. But you look at what his base case was and what it was, none of this stuff is really playing out exactly that way. Just a general market rally. I’m sorry. I just thought it was funny to put that in there.
Frank Curzio: No. I loved that. It’s almost like if Apple sells 10 million phones, it’s going to go through the roof on its first day. But if they sell 2 million phones, it’s also going to go up. That’s the biggest red flag of analysts when people have two situations. If the opposite happens, it’s good, it’s going to go the same direction anyway. It’s very scary. But anyway thank you so much for coming on. Really quick, if someone wants to get in touch with you, learn more about you, how can they do that?
Andrew Horowitz: Sure. You’ll listen to the Disciplined Investor Podcast and go over to the disciplinedinvestor.com, which is what you’re seeing right there. There’s a list of our various podcasts. If you just scroll it up a little bit, you’ll see the… No, the other way. Sorry, scroll it down. I bump, sorry.
Frank Curzio: I mess that up too though.
Andrew Horowitz: So you can see there’s different ways. We have the TDI Managed Growth Strategy we have Invest Dollars, which was kind of a robo advisor, crafted technology enhanced. Very small minimum, it’s $10,000. Also we have our global allocations, it’s a $500,000 minimum. You can see all the different things. We even have plugins that we created through algorithms. Number one on trade station. So a lot of different things you can check out over on the disciplinedinvestor.com, the best way to get in touch with me right there. There’s a little button on top. It says, ask Andrew. You could see that and you can subscribe to the right, of all the ways just to get there. So lots of good stuff on there.
Frank Curzio: No, this is good stuff. So one last thing before I go here and I’m going to surprise you on this. So let me bring this back. I wanted to ask you about this.
Andrew Horowitz: It’s not going to be like a baby picture of me or something, is it?
Frank Curzio: Worse. Right here. And guys, we WILL do an audio course, but when I do see this right there. Your first book. You know what? I found this book and we first met… Man, we know each other 15 years and you actually signed that for me. And I was like, “Wow, this is cool. Just going over the books.” And you had the whole thing in there. But did a mustache, you look like a porno star here.
Andrew Horowitz: Yeah. You like that? Yeah. Look at that handsome guy. It looks like I have a lot of makeup on or something there too. I don’t look that much different now, do I? Should I grow it back?
Frank Curzio: No. I love that mustache. That’s good. You look good, though. I like it. I do. That’s awesome, man.
Andrew Horowitz: Thanks. There’s a story behind that mustache.
Frank Curzio: I can imagine, but listen, buddy. I love you. Thank you so much for coming on. Again, I love the conversation we had. I just thought it’d be great for… That’s what we’re here for, to help people invest and make better decisions. Hopefully we’ll get a decision for the election soon, right, buddy?
Andrew Horowitz: Perfect. Keep up the great work.
Frank Curzio: All right. I’ll talk to you soon. Take care.
Andrew Horowitz: Thanks.
Frank Curzio: Guys, great stuff from Andrew. So much going on. I think it would be nice if there could be a winner declared, this way the country could just unite. We’re all sick of this garbage. The way it’s played out where you’re saying, okay, one candidate, you thought they won pretty much when you went to bed last night and now you’re like, “Wait a minute, that didn’t happen.” Both parties claiming that basically they won. And we know that Trump’s doing a little bit worse than Biden. Biden’s saying, “We believe we won.” And Trump’s like, “I’ll declare myself the winner.” I get it. I think everyone could expect that out of him. But the fact that when they do announce the winner, which I think personally is going to take months. They might say, “Well, Biden won.” But Nevada is the key. Nevada is the key guys. Because if you look at Nevada, if he wins Nevada, he just needs Pennsylvania. Because I really think he’s going to win Georgia and North Carolina.
Frank Curzio: He may lose those states. I’m just saying right now, that’s how it’s playing at. That’s why Nevada is such a big deal. If he loses Nevada, it’s going to be next to impossible. Then we’re going to have a massive wreak. Because I don’t know if what’s going on in Pennsylvania right now. All the Conservative sites are claiming foul. A lot of them got deleted off of Twitter. But there are all videos going around, even on just non or political sites of how the votes weren’t counted right. They didn’t allow people in there. You’re going to hear this from both sides, this is the B.S.
Frank Curzio: And Philadelphia is going to… As of right now, it’s 80% of the 82% report and Trump still has a major lead. And I know that they’ve placed great emphasis that, “Hey, all these votes that are going to come in and go for Biden are going to change.” But again, that’s going to open the door for recounts. You have Wisconsin where Trump said, “Hey, we want to recount there.” Nevada is going to be close. Why Nevada stopped counting? Again, I have no idea why. Why don’t we know the results from Nevada by now? It’s insane. A lot of these places, they got to 50, 60% and they stopped counting last night at 11:00 PM. And that’s not good news. It’s not good news for the markets.
Frank Curzio: The reason why the market’s going up, is because it’s going to be split. And that’s important. We don’t want crazy Conservatives. We don’t want crazy Lefts. We don’t want them to have control of everything because it’s usually the worst time because you get sometimes radical policies on both sides. But that’s one of the things that’s favorable. Outside of that, it is pretty crazy right now. You’re going to see tons of losses come out. You’re going to see the Supreme Court get involved. You look at North Carolina, they don’t have to finish their recount till November 12th. And Nevada came out today and said, “Oh well, we’re not going to have them by today. We’re talking about tomorrow. We have to count…”
Frank Curzio: For mail-in votes, if you’re at home, I just don’t understand why you can’t mail them the date prior, seven days before. This way if say, “If you do it by this day,” this way you have all those votes in, they could be counted. And then you’re just going to the normal polls for the people that go there which are pretty easy to count. But the fact that we’re having… And I understand this close races and stuff, that’s fine. If it’s closing, you want a recount, that’s okay like we had in Florida. This is different. 82% only reporting right now for Pennsylvania? 70% for Nevada? Why is that? Why is that right now? I’m sitting here Wednesday afternoon and you don’t have more of those votes counted? Which is crazy.
Frank Curzio: But either way and the way this is going to work is it’s going to create a lot of chaos. Because no matter who wins, the other side is going to think it wasn’t legit. And think about it. Say if you’re a Republican right now and they come in and say, “Biden wins.” How are you going to feel? “What happened? What’s going on with this? How come they didn’t even counted right?” You going to have a lot of people saying that. And if you’re a Democrat, when they announce Trump, you’re going to say the same thing. A lot of people are going to say the same thing. And that’s going to create a lot of animosity, chaos, not to the point where, hopefully there’s no death in the streets or anything. But it is going to create uncertainty for stocks where a lot of these companies…
Frank Curzio: Look, Biden’s coming in saying, “We’re going to be more conservative.” We’re seeing democratic places roll back. A lot of these options, it’s factored into GDP. That’s pretty freaking scary. That’s really scary. That doesn’t factor into the next quarter GDP. It’s supposed to get better and better and better and better and better. That’s what we’ve been getting since March. April was a little bit better than March and May was better and going better and better. Now we’ve just reversed direction. The first week of a week decline in a lot of these economic indicators that show the opening of the economy. These are reports that I read in the Sell-Side. So it’s pretty crazy.
Frank Curzio: But a lot going on right now. I don’t think you have to adjust your portfolios. There’s going to be winners and losers. But it is going to be interesting to see how this plays out and how long people are going to be okay with it in terms of a market perspective and stock perspective of saying, “Hey, I’m okay if this takes till January.” You look at, what did it take? Six weeks for Florida, that was one State. And that wasn’t too difficult. You can have three, four states at least. And I do think Biden is going to get Michigan and Wisconsin. I’m pretty sure that, I don’t know though. But if he gets those two, now you have Georgia, North Carolina, then you have Pennsylvania, which is, what’s going to happen? Who knows? But Pennsylvania and Nevada, two biggest things.
Frank Curzio: But man, it’s going to take a while. This is going to take a while to determine and I don’t think that’s great for stocks. And it’s funny because I want to say this is very, very important guys. Two weeks ago, I published a special report called the Third Option. It was funny at the time, but I wasn’t kidding. It was basically discussing exactly what we’re seeing right now. Where there’s going to be massive recounts in several States, lots of legal action being taken again. We knew two weeks ago, these guys were hiring two, three, 400 lawyers on each side preparing for this. They knew it. They saw it coming, both sides. Do they have to get the Supreme Court involved? And again, where declaring a winner officially could take months. And that was the Third Option. That was the Third Option. I just said how crazy it could be and extremely chaotic.
Frank Curzio: But I outlined in this report, the best stocks and sectors to buy if Biden wins, if Trump wins. And I said more importantly, here’s the best way to profit from this Third Option. People were like, “What’s the Third Option? Oh, it’s about things that are going to happen.” No, this is the Third Option. All this bullshit. This is the Third Option. This was on the table. This is what an NBC poll took, where I think it was 55 to 60% of the people in that poll did not expect a clear election winner or would not be satisfied with the results after the election. Most people believe this. They’ll have a market that’s going up and be like, “Well, it’s good.” And we just heard what Andrew and Tom Lee saying. Tom Lee has been a bull forever and he’s been right. The market’s been getting back to all-time highs. He’s been right, for the most part. But during COVID he says bullish, bullish, bullish and a crash. But for the most part he’s been right.
Frank Curzio: This report is absolutely free, it’s on my website curzioresearch.com. Just go there, click it, read it. And you’ll learn exactly the way to benefit from this. From chaos, from uncertainty. It’s not about buying and selling stocks all the time where, “Okay, I got to be long. I got to be long. Or I got to get out of the portfolio.” With this specifically, I was talking about buying puts, protecting yourself, hedging yourself, where not only if you’re hedging yourself and this is what Moneyflow Trader is all about. This is why I created this product. I’ve been in the market for 25 years. There’s ups and downs. There’s going to be times of uncertainty. And instead of just sitting there sometimes, it’s scary. Markets usually come back and they’ve come back over, 50, 70 years, every time since S&P 500’s been created. But not all sectors and stocks come back. We’ve seen a lot of names that get absolutely destroyed.
Frank Curzio: So how do you take advantage of that? How do you hedge yourself? Well, in Moneyflow Trader, you hedge yourself by buying a few put positions. You’re only going to lose the money you put into each trade. And say if you take 10% of your portfolio when you do that. So you go short a couple stocks and sectors. Again, Genia Turanova runs that newsletter. She’s fantastic. She’s doing amazing. Now, say if the market goes higher, all those things are going to expire worthless. That’s okay. Because you’re low the other 90% of your portfolio. That’s okay. All right, I’ll sacrifice 10% if that 90% is easily going to make up that 10% if the market goes higher.
Frank Curzio: If the market comes down, these positions, you’re not going to make 50, 75%, just look at gains of Genia. Genia has 500% gains, 200% gains. The average gain out of her 15 winners is 90%. You could get 1,000s of percent gains from these things if the market tanks. Which that 10% will be worth your entire 90% of the rest of your portfolio. This is what the experts do. This is what I’m trying to teach you what to do. It’s nice to have someone come on here and again, marketable. “Oh, just buy the markets, just buy the markets. It’s great. I’ll create this fear pack.” No. In reality, you have ups and downs in the marketplace and you want to be able to protect yourself. And people say, “Frank, why do you use stops all the time?” You know why I use stops? Yeah, sure. If I didn’t use stops, then there’s stocks that stop out and then go much higher. But you get one shot.
Frank Curzio: Say if you have 100 grand and you’re like, “Wow, I really love this stock.” And you’re putting it in three different stocks and you don’t have stops. And all those absolutely crash. Your money’s gone. You don’t get a second chance. You don’t know where that stock’s going to go. So it’s safe for you to trigger the 25% stop loss. Big deal, that’s okay. Then the market completely crashes. Now you have capital of the sidelines and now you can invest a quarterly in a bunch of cheap stocks. That’s how you invest. That’s what I’m trying to teach you here. This is why our following is getting bigger and bigger. And yes, I talk politics sometimes because it’s important. No matter who wins, it’s going to be fine. We’re going to be okay.
Frank Curzio: Last night, it was amazing because you’re seeing all this craziness at 1:30 in the morning, like I always do because I stay up late. But I just checked on my kids and saw my daughters just sleeping comfortably. I’m like, “Man, is this really a big deal?” Yeah, there’s going to be policies that change and stuff like that. But at the end of the day, it’s about our families. We want to be smart. And there’s a lot of emotions right now. And the media did a great job tapping into all of our emotions. Being a Trump supporter and being called a racist, come on, give me a fucking break. Come on. I don’t love the guy. I don’t agree with all his policies. It’s just a lot of things that Trump does is beneficial to me and my family, to my company, to hiring more people. That’s it.
Frank Curzio: I understand the Democratic side, I’ve always have. And I think just the Democrats understand the Republican side. When Clinton was elected, when Obama was elected, Republicans were like, “Holy shit.” But right now, some of these policies that are on the table, it gets a little scary right now. And calling me a racist, and you can’t even say that you want to vote for Trump, or anything people hate you. I have Democratic friends, good. If Biden wins, I’ll be the first say, “Hey man, good job.” Congratulate you, and that’s it. And then we’ll invest accordingly. But just to see what’s going on right now and the emotions behind it, where, “Hey, if you’re a Democrat, I have to hate you.” Give me a break. Come on. We love our families. There are so many things that are much more important than these asshole politicians who really don’t give a shit about us. They don’t. They don’t. They say they do. They care about power.
Frank Curzio: So my job is to bring you the best ideas based on the policies that are going to exist for whoever wins. Again, right now, it looks like it’s Biden, but not definite, just like Trump wasn’t definite last night. But the Senate may take it over, that I think is very, very positive news for the markets. Because if the Democrats have a complete sweep, if the Republicans have clean sweep, usually the markets don’t do that well, usually. So let’s see what happens going forward. But that report, The Third Option, is online. Take a look at it and also, look, I never ever do this. I never ever do this. When I do this kind of product and I put a date on it, it’s done. And I’m like, “Okay, that’s it.” But I give a shit about you.
Frank Curzio: So if you’re interested in Moneyflow Trader, I’ll put a special offer on our site. I’ll discount it by what it was discounted last time, I think it was 30%. Why am I doing this? Because there’s something that I want you to learn about to protect yourself in your portfolio. And you need this right now, because there’s going to be a ton of uncertainty. And even when we announce a winner, there’s still going to be a ton of uncertainty with COVID. Are we going to close down economies? I mentioned it to Andrew. It’s pretty crazy. When we look at, “Hey, the states control what they want to do.”
Frank Curzio: Well, let me tell you something. If you’re a Republican and the president’s Republican, you better listen to that president if you want him to back you, same with Democrats. If you want to have all that backing, you got to stick to party lines. And that could result in more areas in Democratic controlled States, dialing back a little bit, going from 80%, 70%, putting in curfews. The market is definitely not pricing that in. It’s not pricing that in, especially given the stats on COVID, and let’s see what happens with COVID.
Frank Curzio: Because one thing that pisses me off is when you watch CNBC, you watch MSNBC. They act like you’re going to freaking die. You’re going to die if you go outside from COVID, it’s not true. We have to protect… We know who to protect. I’ve been giving you the stats and the facts the whole entire time. You should be more informed than 99.9% of people when it comes to COVID. We’ve been right almost the whole entire time the stats getting out how it’s crazy in China. How it’s going to spread throughout the U.S.. How most of these people aren’t even prepared. And then go over stats and saying, “Hey, now the stats are coming in after New York,” because New York was crazy. They put old people in nursing homes and infection, death rate went up to over 10%. That’s SARS. That’s crazy.
Frank Curzio: But then as it filtered out and we said, “Wait a minute, we’ve got to protect our old people. Over 70, the older people and people with underlying conditions.” Now we have a 0.6% fatality rate, of COVID which is nothing. My kids have been in school for three months. I’m seeing kids in schools for a long time. You’re not seeing people outside hospitals. Hospitalizations are going up a little bit because sometimes COVID affects you a little bit differently and you need medicine. But if you’re looking at the most important stat, it’s the death rate in terms of percent of infection. And that continues to go lower and lower and lower which is great because we know more about this disease. We have medicines and hopefully, hopefully for everybody in the world that we get a really, really good vaccine, because that would be a game changer.
Frank Curzio: But there’s going to be tons of uncertainty going forward. Definitely read my reports, absolutely for free. It’s on our website, Third Option, curzioresearch.com. And if you’re interested in Moneyflow Trader I’ll put it up for a week. Again, I’m hoping that people who didn’t take advantage because of that deadline, are not going to get pissed. But I want to protect you. I want to show you how to invest properly. And if you think I’m full of shit, we’ll offer a money-back guarantee on it or whatever we need to do to say, “Oh, it’s…”
Frank Curzio: Trust me every one of our products. I’ve fired two very high profile analysts that just didn’t really have that good of a performance. And I made those changes and it was tough. And if we look at the change of those two newsletters where it’s Moneyflow Trader, where, men, Genia has been kicking ass. And if we look at our Crypto Intelligence newsletter, the performance in there has been actually amazing. So my job is… We’re a publicly traded company now, from our CEO token. I’m not in this for a year, I’m not in this for two years. I’ve been doing this for 25 years, you could say my whole life, even with my dad doing it, my late dad for 25 years. I’ve been doing this for a very long time. I’m in it for the long-term. How you build a long-term brand is doing right by your customers, by listening to them.
Frank Curzio: So something like this is going to help you in a time that pretty much the market… No, one’s really talking about the uncertainty when it comes to stocks and everyone just says the market’s going to go up. Guys, you know what happens. I thought the market was going to go up because I didn’t think there’s any chance of us closing anything. It’s different. We might be closing. Again, rolling back everything from 80% to 70% to 60%, it’s going to be a nightmare. Now we’re talk about old cyclicals that were supposed to go up that got crushed, like airlines, casinos, travel-related stocks, all these things. Now look, what’s happening. Crazy, crazy stuff.
Frank Curzio: Again, you can go to our website to find all this information out. Last thing here. If you get a chance, you’ll probably listen to this on iTunes. We did our first video podcast. So you’re going to see Andrew’s beautiful face, my ugly face, but you’re going to see me put up an interactive map. And you know what? I’m going to show you actually, some of the things you could see. And if you’re on iTunes, don’t worry about it. But you can go to our YouTube page, at Curzio Research, and here are some of the things that you can look forward to. Just the different camera views we have here, one, two. You saw two camera views with Andrew. We’re going to have Daniel in here. We have the whole studio set up now.
Frank Curzio: And then I can bring up my screen and really do everything I want on my screen as I’m talking. That’s why I’m clicking states and it’s interactive and you’ve seen it turn blue or red. And it increases the totals of Biden and Trump of how you get to 270. The research sites that I’m going to be talking about, I’m going to be bringing them up to show you. The visual aspect is so amazing. That’s why you’re looking at a Joe Rogan Podcast that a lot of people watch on YouTube. It just provides so much more information, the visuals, and the fact that I could share so much of my research, even more than just saying, “Hey, go to this site.” Now you’re going to see the site and you’re going to see why I like it so much. And these sites are mostly going to be free for you to look at just like what’s up right now.
Frank Curzio: Again, I can put up anything and bring up everything and just have different views and stuff. We have about five or six different camera views in here. We have lights across the board. We paid a lot of money for the studio, I’m excited. So if you get a chance, just take a look at it. We’re going to cut these down in segments. We’re going to have the beginning part, which I used to have my monologue thing. And then we have my interview in the middle and then we usually have an educational segment or whatever at the end. But all is going to be on video going forward, and I want to get your feedback.
Frank Curzio: So to view that you can go to our Curzio Research YouTube page, and we’re going to try to get this up as soon as possible. This is the first one. So we’re going to get better at it. We’re going to get quicker at it. I want to hear your feedback as always, but really cool stuff. And I just want to say, thank you so much for all the support, for everything you guys do. And I promise you, I’m going to do everything I can to position you perfectly for no matter who wins the election, what sectors, what stocks. And one of the best ways to do that right now is by just protecting yourself just a little bit. Because we’re not going to get results in a couple of days. There’s no way. We’re looking at weeks if not months, that’s how long it’s going to take.
Frank Curzio: And you know how long it takes for the Supreme Court to hear… Do you know long it takes to bring something to the Supreme Court? Again, it’s going to be quicker, but still you’re looking at a scenario that doesn’t look good in terms of, even if they say, “Hey, Joe Biden is the winner.” Trump’s going to fight it. If they say the same thing with Trump, Biden’s going to it. And you’re going to see these lawyers come out, they’re going to go to the Supreme Court. It’s going to be a shitshow. And we know when that happens and that uncertainty, if you’re a business, how do you project for the future? How do you offer guidance? And if you don’t offer guidance, good luck.
Frank Curzio: You got away with that in March and April and May because we threw six and a half trillion dollars at the problem. But while all this is going on, guys, remember we’re not going to get a Stimulus Plan while they’re fighting here and go into all the lawyer bullshit. We’re not going to get a stimulus plan. And I’m very, very surprised the market is up right now with this uncertainty. Maybe by some chance, we get a quick decision. They come out in a couple of days and say, “Hey, you know what? Whoever won, won. And that’s it, it’s over.” That would be very good. But in order to get to a stimulus plan, this stuff has end. And I don’t see nothing for a while.
Frank Curzio: So I want you to protect yourselves just in the short-term. Long-term, COVID’s going to go away. It’s already going away. I know you see more cases. I know you’re alarmed. Trust me, we’re testing more than ever. There’s more people into the economy. Of course the numbers are going to go up, but the death rate continues to go down because we understand this virus. We understand who it impacts, who we have to protect. We know that. Hopefully, the media will be reporting the real news on COVID and not the bullshit to keep people home. Especially now this election is basically over and we don’t have to worry about any more people voting. So thank you so much for listening. As always, really appreciate all your support and I’ll see you guys in seven days. Take care.
Announcer: The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its hosts and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility. Wall Street Unplugged, produced by the Choose Yourself Podcast Network. The leader in podcasts, produced to help you choose yourself.
NBC gave a stealth “third option” a 55% chance of stealing the presidential election… And it looks like they’re right.
As Frank mentioned on today’s podcast, he believes the third option could hand you a windfall… but you have to position yourself for it.