I’m taking more of your questions and comments about the market (and one about the NBA).
A listener comments on our major deal with TCG World to buy land in the metaverse. (See the press release here.) I explain why this will be a game-changer for our business—and how accredited investors can get a stake alongside us.
Next, I take a question on whether EV maker Rivian Automotive’s stock is worth looking at… and the same listener wants to know who I like for the NBA playoffs.
Finally, I explain why I’m bullish on markets despite China’s COVID lockdowns… and why it’s different from the lockdowns of March 2020.
- Be careful as earnings season comes to an end [1:00]
- We’ve officially launched our metaverse deal [5:30]
- Is Rivian a buy? [24:15]
- Who I think will win the NBA playoffs [28:45]
- Why I’m bullish on markets despite China lockdowns [31:50]
Wall Street Unplugged | 898
I just made my largest personal investment—ever
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on main street.
Frank Curzio: What’s going on out there? It’s Wednesday, May 25th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. It’s just me today. I usually bring in Daniel, just came back from vacation, Belize. I told him I got today’s podcast, no worries. 10 day vacation. Man, I want his boss. His boss must to be really, really cool. Anyway, Daniel will be back shortly. Had a great time. Just talked to him today. But I do want to take some questions. I’m glad you’ve been sending them in, firstname.lastname@example.org.
Frank Curzio: Before I take them, I’m going to say for today we saw what, Dick’s Sporting Goods miss. It’s down 17%. Nordstrom was okay. You know, these retailers, discretionary companies all over the place with the earnings. I mean, last podcast, I said, “Be careful.” Because tomorrow in the morning you have Alibaba, which is similar to Walmart and Target. We saw what happened there. I mean, that’s China’s Walmart and Target, basically.
Frank Curzio: Then you have Burlington stores and Macy’s before the open. Look, be careful. I mean, most of these stocks are reporting bad numbers and lowering guidance. And even though they’re down significantly from their highs, they’re still getting now 20, 30%. A lot of those algorithms, a lot of that just shorting and short-term stuff. And a lot of these things will probably bounce back because they’re trading at levels that are insane, which I’ll cover later. But if you own some of these names… And even after the close tomorrow Gap, Ulta. On Friday, you got Hibbett which is like the Dick’s Sporting Goods, more like a Foot Locker, Under Armour, Nike sells all those products. And all those companies really, they all warned basically. They said, “Look, things are definitely different now.”
Frank Curzio: And some of them having inventory concerns, right? You were dying to get in inventory, dying to get into supply chain. Now you got all this inventory. Holy shit, demand just crashed. It’s not limited. You see a couple of companies here and there say, “Hey, we got this right.” And some companies reporting and lowering, and you’re not seeing a significant hit because they’re down much more than the overall market. But a lot of these big names, we’re not talking about little specialty stores here. And Dick’s, Walmart, Target, be careful if you own these going in. Big Lots reports on Friday as well. Be careful. I mean, you’re sitting there going, “Wow, I can’t believe this stocks down 25% from it’s highs.” And next thing you know, they warn after reporting two great quarters previously. So, just be careful in this market. It’s crazy.
Frank Curzio: I covered it yesterday. I said, “Look, this is more like 2009 in January.” You’re seeing insider buying through the roof right now. I’ll cover that in a little while. I mean, it’s highest since the credit crisis. But remember, that’s what we saw in January and December. In November 2008… And the market surged from November 2008 to January. And everyone was like, “This is it.” And then, people jumped in and the market crashed another 30%. It bounced back really quickly. So, it went from like 920, 940, whatever, to 666 was the bottom, went back up to like 940 within two months or so. And then it surged. The next couple of years it went to 1400. Now the S&P 500 is 3800.
Frank Curzio: My point is that the insiders were right. But it was painful for the first few months, but they were right. I mean, you’re not going to pick the absolute bottom, the absolute low. I mean, I told you there’s great things going on right now in the market where Target, Walmart not a bad thing. I mean, they’re saying we have inventory concerns, and we’re not seeing as many people buy stuff, which means that they’re going to have to lower prices. Lower prices is what we want to see. That’s going to result in inflation coming down when inflation moderates from these levels.
Frank Curzio: All we need is moderation. When we see the stock market crashing at these levels, we just need a tiny positive if we see it on the next couple months. We’re not going to see it with energy and food. We know that. But we may be seeing it in a lot of other things. And that’s evident even from Dick’s, again, lowering their estimates. A lot of companies they’re lowering their estimates. Saying we don’t longer have this pricing power. And that’s bad for the stock you own, but that’s good for the overall economy because now the Fed’s going to be raising rates. Now inflation’s going to moderate, start coming down. And then 12 months from now, it has ammunition to help the market, which it doesn’t have right now, because it was behind the curve. Go behind the curve. They have to raise rates, shrink their balance sheet.
Frank Curzio: We see inflation come down sharply, the Fed wouldn’t be raising rates aggressively. They’re going to have to raise rates aggressively and get back up there. Plus, we’re seeing a 30 at top out here. Landed 3.15, it’s below that now. Kind of like holding that level saying, I mean, that’s an indication telling us that you know what, inflation’s kind of moderating.
Frank Curzio: So during these times, I want to take as many questions as I can. This is the format we have maybe over next couple weeks, I’ll bring in Daniel next week on Wednesday. We’ll also take some questions. But I want to be here for you guys. I know it’s eight straight weeks that we’ve been down. Hopefully, we break that trend. I don’t know if we’ll break it this, I don’t know, I mean, we went down a lot. Yesterday, we did bounce back a little bit. We were down a lot sharper, but let’s see. I mean eight straight weeks, something we haven’t seen in two decades. While we’ll get into levels, which I’ll explain a question later, that it makes a lot of sense to start throwing money into this market.
Frank Curzio: Now let’s get our first question from Jess. He says, not a question, but a statement, “Congratulations on your major announcement yesterday. Hope you’re right on this metaverse thing.” And she’s got a little smiley face. “Amazing way you taking care of your research. I’m glad along for the ride. Long-term follower since the Cramer days. Jess.” I appreciate that, Jess. Thank you very much.
Frank Curzio: So, we made it official, right? Official announcement yesterday, press release came out, “We just had a large land deal in metaverse history just announced $5 million partnership between Curzio Research and TCG World.” So, we announced strategic partnership with TCG World who’s building a large open-world 4K metaverse, and it’s almost done. We’ve seen it already. You could see it. Go to TCG World. You can go to YouTube videos. They provide updates every single month on what they’re doing. By far the nicest, most beautiful metaverse that you’ll see. Someplace you want to spend time with, at. It’s not like Decentraland or… I’ve been to Decentraland. I’ve been to Sandbox. I was in there for about 20 minutes to 30 minutes and I haven’t gone back, it just didn’t interest me as much. This is a lot different. I’ve been studying this trend for a while. And I haven’t seen anything like TCG, and that’s why we made this investment.
Frank Curzio: So, we’re spending 5 million to purchase nine commercial real estate properties in the metaverse. It’s a stock and cash deal. We’re in the process of building our headquarters there, which would be available before TCG goes live in September. And they’re helping us build it with their developers. But the company, it’s coming out September and it’s the largest metaverse. Sold more than 50% of its plots already. And you’re going to see more and more announcements. More and more announcements come out they get closer to that date. And more and more people recognize this.
Frank Curzio: Because I could tell you a lot of people where the billions are flowing into the metaverse, and by the way, guys, I don’t know if you saw Davos and economic forms taking place a lot. I mean, it seems like every conversation I put on CBC is about the metaverse. The metaverse. And they were talking about will meetings be replaced, will they be in the metaverse from now on. And a lot of them like, “There’s something about 3D meetings that are much better than the 2D meetings.” And who knows if people will have to attend Davos anymore.
Frank Curzio: Yes, I’m a person that likes in-person meetings, but you know, person to person, especially now that COVID’s died down, but they’re talk… You’re going to see this develop. All the companies, I mean, they’re talking about it in Davos right now. And also who made a major announcement was Andreessen Horowitz. So Andreessen Horowitz just raised, now, just raised $4.5 billion for another crypto fund. Puts it at 7.5 billion altogether. I think it’s their fourth. Mostly for Web3 investments, which is what, which is DeFi, which is security tokens, NFTs, and I have this written down piece of paper because I was just watching it right before I came on, and DAO. So, what brings all those together is the metaverse. An open-world metaverse that brings it all together.
Frank Curzio: That’s why you’re seeing a market like this, that’s the one area that’s getting funded. It’s the one area why we push this deal so much, why we’re so excited about it. And I’ll go more in a minute. But they were talking about the state of crypto, and they had one of their analysts on there, and she was talking about how she’s been in this since 2013. She’s used to the volatility. But we don’t care about people in the short-term. Long-term, this is it. This is where the innovation is. This is where the market’s going. And they know it.
Frank Curzio: Andreessen Horowitz’s the biggest venture capital fund. They make the most money. They’re amazing. $4.5 billion they raised. So venture, I think 1.5 billion that’s going to go to seed investments and the rest is going to be, that’s very, very early stage, and the rest is to, a lot of this stuff’s going to be early stage anyway. But a little bit more developed, like TCG’s developed. They’re coming out September. They’re not like, “Hey, give me all this money and we’re building a metaverse.” No, they’re not even taking money from really outside investors or… Everyone’s purchasing land. That’s what they’re doing to build this thing.
Frank Curzio: So, they’re not taking on any partners or anything. And the structure that they have, I love. There’s a reason why they’re not taking on those partners. And I’ll explain it to you later. For us, we plan to use some of this commercial real estate to get for our headquarters where Curzio VIP members can meet with other investors. They’re going to be able to attend live events, educational seminars, conferences, listen exclusive Wall Street Unplugged podcasts, build a huge investment community, and share ideas. I have lots and lots of ideas for this, like special private placement deals that could be shared there. Anyone could bring the tips, just like I have access to so much of this information through this podcast and doing it for 14 years, close to 15 years now, being able to have a lot of these people come in and share their ideas.
Frank Curzio: And if their ideas are terrible, they get kicked out of the room. They can’t come back. There’s so many different ideas, but the point is you’re eliminating Wall Street and you’re creating this massive network where you have all these ideas. And it’s not a coincidence that WallStreetBets is in this. And our headquarters going to be close to that. But if you’re not familiar with TCG World, go to YouTube, watch a few videos. For us, I’m very proud of this deal. We work very, very hard to get it done over the past few months. We locked in prices at great rates. Again, with Sandbox, Decentraland, if you’re watching these YouTube videos, you got to see the big difference between these.
Frank Curzio: And not only are we going to develop with our land headquarters, but it gives us an option where we bought enough real estate, where we could lease it out in other areas. And it’s four different quadrants. And that puts a nice asset on our balance sheet. It results in potential for recovering revenue. But the fact we bought this land for 5 million, if you look at the Decentraland, and from what I see, again, it could be a different opinion or whatever, when I see the Decentraland and Sandbox, TCG just blows them away. But the $5 million land, if it was in Decentraland, it’d be worth more than $90 million. So for me, my bet is that when people start noticing how amazing this is and how they got it right, and how it’s incentivizing development from just innovators, from those developers, from those users, where they’re taking very small fees compared to everybody else. That’s the biggest difference. Permissionless, decentralized world.
Frank Curzio: And that’s not with Facebook is coming out with. That’s not what Roblox is. That’s not what Fortnite is. Not what Decentraland is. And it’s not what Sandbox is. That’s a one way street. That doesn’t build this up. That’s not what the metaverse is. They charging 40%, they going to take 40%. Facebook’s bitching about the app store and Apple and how much they take. And everybody bitched about that. They’re going to be taking more than what Apple takes for the Apple Store, for anyone that comes in and develops stuff there, which means it’s a one way street. They’re trying to make money. That’s not the metaverse.
Frank Curzio: Metaverse is an economy, decentralization, permissionless. You could have your own jobs in it. You could build your own stuff. And they’re only going to be taking 5%, which it promotes innovation in this world, and they got that right. Because they don’t care what happens over the next few months. They’re not taking a check for like $5 million, $10 million and saying, “Okay, now we have Andreessen Horowitz as investors.” No, if you have Andreessen Horowitz and investors, they got the deal of a lifetime. They’re getting your token for almost nothing. And they got people on the board. They’re looking at the venture. They’re looking to get in early and get out as quick as possible with the most money. That’s fine. That’s great. But it’s not the best thing in the world to get these partners.
Frank Curzio: I know when I raised money for my security token, I had funds come in and want to give me millions and millions of dollars. And we raised $4 million. And they want to give me millions and millions and millions of more. They said, “Hey, we want special deal on your token. Could we get it at 50 cents a dollar?” I said, excuse my language, “Go fuck yourself. We’re not in a position of weakness. We’re a growing company. And I’m not giving you shares so you can blow them out as soon as we’re able to trade on something like tZERO.”
Frank Curzio: Because right now that’s what you’re seeing across the board. All this leverage. That’s a fund that’s probably invested. Those funds are invested in so many different things. They’re selling out. They’re going to sell out of our token to pay off a lot of things. They’re on margin. But what does that result in our token price being at a dollar instead of being close to seven where it’s been near seven since February, since we came on the tZERO platform, which is pretty amazing. Trading flat to a little bit down in a market where everything’s down 30% plus from its highs. That’s the difference.
Frank Curzio: But just seeing them talk about in Davos is pretty amazing. But you know, the deal itself and the real estate in the metaverse, just that is worth it alone. Just having that. But TCG’s also, this is a stack and cash deal. So, they’re going to be an investor in our company. That’s they want it. That’s what we wanted. We want to be partners with them. So, they stand to benefit tremendously from our growth, which means they’re incentivized to make us a focal point of their new world, to introduce us to every crypto company they know, make sure every crypto investor in the metaverse knows our name because they’re investors in our company.
Frank Curzio: So, our headquarters are going to be right near WallStreetBets. They have 11 million followers. Throwing WhiteBIT that’s a large international crypto exchange with over 1 million traders. Also on TCG. That’s 12 million investors we potentially have access to. Now, if we’re able to get just one half percent of these people to subscribe to one of our products, one half percent of those, that’s it, I’m not talking about any crazy numbers here. We’re going to increase our subscriber base by sixfold.
Frank Curzio: I mean, it’ll cost us more than $10 million easily to build a file that size through traditional media channels, just advertising networks. To do this here, we’re going to have access to these people for free. That’s just two companies right now in TCG metaverse. Once they launch and more come on board, this number could reach to hundreds of millions. So that’s why for us, it’s a game changer. But we’re doing a private placement. We’re raising $4 million to fund a portion of this deal. Already seeing lots of demand, even in this market, because it’s a well-structured deal. It is a metaverse deal and you see metaverse deals get funded.
Frank Curzio: And this is the largest right now on record that we’ve been told, but we’ve done some research on it. And there’s three or four companies that were smaller deals than ours that said they were the largest. So we’re the largest, unless there was some deal under the table. But honestly I expect us to be the largest for maybe a couple weeks, because that’s how much money’s pouring into. You saw Andreessen Horowitz use 4.5 million. You going to see a lot of that go to the metaverse, Web3 it’s metaverse. That’s a metaverse that brings all these trends together.
Frank Curzio: So seeing lots of, man, because it’s a well-structured deal. Little dilution. Created the earnings pretty quickly. I said it was going to be no dilution, little dilution because we wanted to buy more real estate at the price that we’re getting it. So, we’re going to issue a few tokens. We have more than half of those on our balance sheet already, which is including in our market cap. If you’re a credited investor and interested in learning how you could buy into this offering, which includes a 30% discount to Curzio Research, our token C-U-R-Z.
Frank Curzio: Again, that token is an equity stake. It’s like a stock. You get a direct equity stake in our company. It’s a 30% percent discount where it’s trading today. You just go to www.curzioequityowners.com. All the paperwork, the sub-agreement, all the details of deal could be found there. I had people that read that and said, “Frank, I have a few more questions,” which are actually good questions. And I’ve spoken to a lot of investors, and they’ve come in already. So if that’s the case and you read it, and you still have questions, and you’re thinking about it, call me. Just make sure you know, it’s serious about it. I have no problem speaking to you, but I spoke to one person when we raised money the last time and it was kind of like, he was like, “I’m thinking of coming in, but I have a good deal,” and I wanted to hang up on the guy. I’m like, “Not right now. Send me an email for something like that.”
Frank Curzio: This is more important. I want to talk to investors. I want to talk to people who are serious about this. And it’s a $25,000 minimum. So all investors are getting the same deal, which also includes, for all new investors, going to include, we’re giving away a free plot of land TCG, and a free minted NFT, which is going to be a Curzio Research sports car. Only limited to the investors coming into the deal where you could use it to go through the, it’s a massive metaverse where you could do so many different things in a TCG World.
Frank Curzio: And the reason why I’m giving those away is because I want you to learn about the metaverse and this is the best way to learn about. You could do anything you want. You could sell both of those things. I mean, it’s going to be the limited edition car, it’s only going to be limited to those investors, whether it’s a 100, 150, whatever. It’s not going to be any more made. So, it’s going to be minted. It’s going to be airdropped you at a future date probably after September, October. Right around there, we’ll be able to airdrop it, again, they’re going to be really busy once they open. But that’s the deal that they struck with us, which is really, really cool. And they said, hey, we want to do this is a little bit extra because it’s a partnership.
Frank Curzio: And for me, when I view partnerships, I look at McDonald’s and Coca-Cola. In our industry, a lot of partnerships aren’t structured like that. It’s usually one person gets, you know what. And it begins with an F. And that’s not the way I’ve ever done business. That’s not the way you build a network. So for us, we’re looking to partner a lot of these crypto companies, a lot of people’s within the metaverse, we’re looking to partner with them long term and help build this thing. And bigger, this thing gets… We’re real estate owners. We’re the largest real estate owners in this metaverse, as of now, that could change in just a couple weeks. So, just really exciting stuff.
Frank Curzio: But I want to give this away for free, and you could sell it. You could do whatever you want with it, but at least you’ll understand NFTs. You know how to put them in your wallet, how do you get them, how do I build land on this plot. And again, it’s going to be a small plot located near our headquarters, but this way you get familiar with this trend. The best way to get familiar with it let me give it to you for free. And that comes in with the deal. So I’m largest shareholder, I’m investing another $200,000 in it. So, getting the same deal as everyone else. And TCG, since the cash, stock, and a token deal, they are receiving those tokens, the same price, same deal as every new investor coming to the deal. All of us, we’re all getting the same deal across the board. So, no one’s coming in and getting tokens at $2 and, “We raised 25 million,” because we decided to give tokens away 15 cents.
Frank Curzio: You see a lot of bullshit companies to do that. We’re not doing that. Again, I didn’t create security tokens, with original security tokens, I didn’t do this deal to make money tomorrow. This is something I truly believe in. We’re revolving a whole entire company around it. It’s a way to access names, which is the core part of our business, where people want to be educated. Not only that they want to be educated on NFTs. They want to be educated on cryptos, on the right cryptos. Because you see what happened with Luna and Terra, how bullshit this industry could be sometimes.
Frank Curzio: I’m glad it’s getting washed out. You need to wash out because this is where all the innovation is coming from. But more importantly, getting to these investors, they’re going to be investing at a market that, I mean, we’re at lows not seen since the credit crisis in terms of valuation. And even COVID, we’re below those lows on the Russell 2000. And somebody ask a question, later, I’ll cover that in a second. But being able to educate them on how to buy some of these things at this stage, that’s why it’s amazing. Because usually you see when the market sells off, everyone runs for the exits. For us to see a huge demand for this deal, which is great. And also Andreessen Horowitz to raise $4.5 billion dollars in this type of market for Web3, which again, a lot of that is going to go into metaverse, DeFi. It’s Web3.
Frank Curzio: So, you’re seeing how evolutionary that a lot of people think this trend’s going to be. I thought it would take long to get here. It’s not. I mean, this deal is 4.5 billion is just a small part of what has been raised over the past six months during this market fall. There’s a ton of money. That’s one of the only areas I know of that’s seeing a flood of money and including some energy deals. That’s it. Everything else I’ve been asked about deals, I’ve, “Frank, you want to invest in this.” There’s no demand. There’s no demand for biotech. There’s no demand for technology deals. There’s no demand for any of that stuff right now. So a lot of that money, there is money on the sideline that wants to invest in a lot of this stuff.
Frank Curzio: And when do you do it? You do it now when valuations are low, you can get in early, you got your pick of the litter. It’s not like you’re trying to catch the new deal that came out in 5G or AI when these trends are just continue to taking off on cloud. And we’ve seen a lot of those things get nailed now. But you don’t have to chase deals where the people creating these companies are in the driver’s seat. You’re in the driver’s seat if you have cash right now. And if you listen to this podcast, you should have cash on the sidelines. Yes, we stopped that as some of the stocks in our newsletter, but you should have cash. If you do, lots and lots of investments are coming up and one of them is actually ours, the private placement. So, we officially announced it. Thank you so much. I really, really appreciate it.
Frank Curzio: Just before you think about coming in, I want you to do me a favor. Make sure you do your due diligence. Go over everything. You have any questions let me know. But go to the Decentraland, go to Sandbox, and then go to TCG world. Look at the YouTube videos of what they’re coming out with. And you’ll see why I’m so excited. That’s all I’m going to say. Before you even come into the deal, do that, do your due diligence. Don’t say, “Well, Frank, I trust you and you’ve been around forever and this and that.” Doesn’t matter if it’s not a, it is a matter of trusting, but it doesn’t mean that if you even trust the person that you’re going to make money off of a deal. You want to make sure you’re doing the right thing.
Frank Curzio: For me, this was a no brainer when we saw TCG World. We got lucky to be introduced through one of my contacts at a conference we went to. This has been in the making for several months going. It was pretty easy, the negotiations going back and forth because we both had similar interests. We both wanted to be partners with each other. It wasn’t like, “Oh, I’m buying this and that’s,” no, we want to be partners. We have more partners. They invest in our company. We own real estate in their metaverse. And for me doing the research on this, I think this is going to be the premier metaverse because it’s an open-world that promotes innovation. It’s permissionless, it’s decentralized. It’s allowing people to create their own stuff and own their own content. Where yes, you could own your own content and those other metaverses, but you’re still giving away a ton of money.
Frank Curzio: I mean Facebook’s 48.5%. That’s what they’re looking to take, 48.5%. And you know what they said, what their executives, “That’s on par with pretty much everyone else in the industry.” TCGs taking 5%. That’s awesome. That’s looking long-term. That’s trying to get everyone in the world. That’s Robinhood. That’s Robinhood changing the industry. Yes, Robinhood’s down, and they came out of the crazy stupid valuation at a bull market. But what Robinhood did is change the landscape of trading forever. Every major firm decide, “Okay, we can’t, trading is for free now.” Yes, they’ll make it a difference in the price differential and stuff like that. We know. But that’s how it became a multibillion-dollar company and huge company. Yes, it’s down tremendously because, again, there’s a little shadiness going around there. But you could see how you can get the greatest talent and how you could build a company if you do the right thing. And this is going to promote innovation.
Frank Curzio: And that’s the biggest part of the metaverse. You want people to come there and innovate because there’s people that are smarter than you. No matter how smart you think you are when you’re running a company, there’s people that are smarter than you out there. How do you get them to your site? Well, we have the best metaverse. We have 4K graphics. We’re the only ones with 4K graphics. It’s an amazing experience going through. You’re going to be able to, it’s gamification, you could play games. You could, stock seminars, and you can see big concerts there.
Frank Curzio: I mean, the Fortnite concert, if you look with Travis Scott, which if you’re older, you probably don’t know him, but he’s one of the hottest artists. It’s close to 200 million views through the metaverse. 200 million on YouTube. That’s how many people viewed it. 200 million. What’s the largest venue for a concert? What do you think? Whatever, a hundred, a little over a hundred if you go in someplace in Spain, or wherever, in Europe, and a couple places here. But what do you think every artist is not looking at that going, “Holy shit, I mean, that’s how many people attended this, 200 million? Are you kidding me?” That’s the metaverse. It’s here. It’s now. And we’re really excited to do this deal. So, thank you so much for that. I really appreciate it. You can just Google and you’ll see our press release if you want to learn more. But again, if you’re interested in coming to this deal, www.curzioequityoffer.com. Any questions you have, feel free to call me anytime.
Frank Curzio: Next question is from Tyler. He says, “Hey Frank, Tyler here. I know we’ve been talking down on the electric vehicle space. I live in Dallas, Fort Worth area and oddly enough, I’ve been seeing Rivian trucks as of recently on a daily basis. Whereas before I see zero, all of a sudden I’m seeing three or four a week.” He goes, “An insight on this, Rivian may just, may be able to look at the stock. Maybe there’s something bigger there.” He goes, “Also who’s your pick in terms of NBA playoffs?” And says, “Also dismiss my grammar,” because he sent this through his iPhone, is really cool Tyler, “because I have a three- and six-year-old, so grammar checking’s out of the question. So, help me out if you read this on the air. Thanks. You’re Awesome.” I did help you out a little bit Tyler. It’s cool. And I appreciate all support Tyler.
Frank Curzio: So that’s cool. Out of all, the EV companies Rivian to me is the most attractive. Rivian CEO bought 41,000 shares just in a day at 25.75 worth about 1.1 million. That’s awesome. I mean, I don’t see that in some companies. I mean, why isn’t Disney insiders buying? That’s interesting. You tell me streaming is the greatest thing in the world, and still the greatest thing in the world, and you guys are in perfect position, why aren’t insiders buying? Maybe it’s because you’re trading at 25 times forward earnings, but the market trading is 16 times forward earnings. And even the best of breed in the industry Netflix is trading at what 17 times forward earnings. But Rivian, the CEO’s buying, and now it’s a few days after Ford. They had that big position. They sold 7 million shares at $27, which netted them 188 million. Remember Rivian was a 100, over a 100, I believe. So Ford, I think instead of investing in them should have bought them.
Frank Curzio: But you know, they sold it 27 and that created a little bit more weakness and fell to 26, 25 and CEO said, “Okay, now it’s time for me to buy.” But you do have supply chain concerns. It is tough to scale, which you all know. I mean, just from Tesla alone, I don’t know where they’re going to get the battery supplies. I think Tesla came out, or someone came out and said that the average EV vehicle is going to go up 17% just based on the cost, and the rising costs for batteries, and lithium. I mean, that technology, a lot of these companies don’t have the technology where they could scale all the supply. I mean, Ford and GM are talking to a great game. That’s why I’m down on them.
Frank Curzio: But Rivian look, again, three, four a week in Dallas before, I haven’t seen anywhere I am. I hope, I mean, I want to buy an electric car. I think a lot of people want to buy an electric car. Because if you drive them, they’re amazing. It’s supposed to be this little box. I mean, you hit the gas and your neck snaps back, and that’s just for basic models. And it’s really, really cool when you drive these things. And it’s all electric, everything gets, obviously it’s all electric, but it’s all digital display and you just, you stream movies, WiFi capability, which a lot of cars have, but this is pretty much given to you. It’s just that, and automatic updates for the car go through. It’s pretty amazing. It really is pretty amazing.
Frank Curzio: I know probably about 15 people that own Tesla’s and I haven’t heard a bad thing about… Again, you buy a new product and you pay a lot of money for it you’re probably always going to be like, “Hey, this is great. This is great. This is great.” But these people really, really love the car. I mean, it’s like a kid to them. And you don’t see that with a lot of, you see with Porsches, obviously, and high-end vehicles and stuff. But I mean, when it comes to Tesla that brand, and I think you’re going to see that. But again, the parts aren’t there, the technology isn’t there for some of these companies. They can create a few cars, but being able to scale is a total different ballgame, especially with everything being closed right now. So Rivian, if I would invest in anything, it would be Rivian. Tesla is coming down. You’ve seen it got cut in half, it’s in the 600s now from 1200, whatever. Still easily the leader in the space by a mile. But is Rivian going to be the next person?
Frank Curzio: I don’t know if it’s going to be Ford or GM. I’m not too sure. They talked a good game. They lost a lot of credibility, which I told you, they lying out of their asses about the supply chains because we get data for that. They weren’t going to… They said that they were going to produce millions of cars. They said they’re going to start massively producing. You’ll see them everywhere. That was 12 months ago. You still, you go to these lots, you still, you’re not going to be able to get an EV probably for another 12 months, at least another 12 months, unless you’re lucky. Some of you, a few of you will. I’m talking about anyone else. Most people, you won’t. That’s going to be big trouble for these guys. So, I’m not crapping on this industry. I like the EV space. I believe in it.
Frank Curzio: What I’m crapping on is the optimism from the GMs and the Fords try to get the same multiple, right? They’re trying to get their stock higher. That’s what they’re incentivized to do because Tesla has this crazy multiple. But you eventually have to produce cars, which Tesla’s doing. They’re producing and they’re producing on scale. So, stop talking and start doing. And that’s when those stocks will start going a lot higher.
Frank Curzio: You also talk about the NBA playoffs. Who do I like? I mean, Golden State really looks great. They didn’t look great yesterday. But that’s okay, they’re up 3-0. And it’s not because of Steph Curry or Klay. We know they’re good. And Draymond Green is good. It’s Andrew Wiggins. I’m not saying it’s because he’s a Kansas product. He’s only there for one year. But finally playing up to his potential. He’s supposed to be a superstar in this league. Now he’s playing as a role player and anyone that’s guarding him, he could easily beat because people run around guarding Steph and Klay run around like maniacs. And he’s one of the top defenders in the league. I mean, he’s doing a great job defending.
Frank Curzio: So I know, Dallas has a pretty good team. Young players. Doncic is amazing. But Wiggins man, wow. I mean he’s the X factor to me. And he has open looks because Steph and Klay run around. But they look really good. Boston looks good as well. Miami, not sure. Great defensive team. Love Jimmy Butler, but he’s hurt right now. But Boston with Tatum, I think, coming into his own. I think the team’s finally accepting that. Where everybody wanted to be a hero on that team for a while. Now it’s Tatum, and you got Jaylen Brown and you got Marcus Smart, a great defender, Spark Plug. You got Boston, Golden State it looks like. But I have Golden State win the championship.
Frank Curzio: And hopefully, Curry can finally get a championship MVP. Because he doesn’t have one in his career, which a lot of people claim that Curry is a top 10 player. I don’t have him in my top 25. I think that’s crazy. He’s the greatest shooter every time, but he’s not a good defender. People scoring him at will. He doesn’t play well in big games. I mean which is evident from the championships. I mean, you’re the key player. You’re top 10 player. All those top 10 players if they won championships, Michael Jordan, every championship got the MVP. Look at the greatest players. Magic Johnson, Larry Bird gets MVPs when they win the championship. He didn’t because he played like shit in almost every championship. Hopefully, that changes this time. He’s still building his legacy. But he’s not a top 10 player. He’s not even close.
Frank Curzio: He’s got one buzzer beater, which he had in January. One buzzer beater. People don’t know that. He’s a great shooter. He’s exciting. He’s awesome. I know you get caught up in a moment like when Jordan Spieth won all those, almost won the grand slam and you compare him to Bobby Jones. Take it easy. He’s great. He’s still doing his legacy. But compare, and Giannis a top 10 player. He’s the greatest shooter of all time. It’s a lot different to be a top 10 player. Jordan was getting defensive MVP and the offensive MVP in the same year. He’s not even close. He can’t really defend. A lot of people that’s the mish-mash they use.
Frank Curzio: People don’t realize this either, Magic Johnson wasn’t a good defender either. That’s why the Pistons smoked him. They were like with Dumars, they were like, “Hey, all in. We’re going to Dumars every time.” And Dumars just lit him up and killed Magic Johnson. That’s why they beat them. They won their first championship against the Lakers. So once that improves, maybe. But I do have Golden State because role players are the most important thing. That’s how you win championships. Everyone has superstars. But your role players have to understand their roles. Andrew Wiggins is something that just came out of nowhere. And you’re considered the fourth, maybe fourth best player on that team. And you were the best player on most of the teams that you were at, underachieving. But now holy cow, I mean, that was a big, big find. And he’s coming to his own. And great, great stuff. So anyway, sorry to talk so much about basketball. You know how much I love it, but had a little bit there.
Frank Curzio: Let’s take one more question. It’s from James. He goes, “Lifetime subscriber here.” Thank you for all the support. “Because I know you’re getting more bullish as you’re seeing inflation top out. China’s still locked down due to their zero COVID policy. Last time, you were right to be super cautious about it, which was January 2020. Saying they’re closing down. That’s the growth engine of the world. And market was trading at 23 times, 24 times forward earnings.” But he says, “How is this time different from last time?” Said, “Market’s still a buy at these levels even if China is playing these games?”
Frank Curzio: And it’s a good question with the lockdown. But there’s a lot of differences. I mean, significant differences. Like I said, we were trading at all-time levels and everything was great. And everybody, market was at record highs. We’re trading at these expensive valuations. Look where we’re trading now. And most stocks are down tremendously. Significantly. The China lockdown is mostly in Shanghai, a couple of other areas, but we have the playbook now.
Frank Curzio: The companies have been finding ways to improve their supply chains, logistics outside of China, which is a little bit better. Still, a lot of people use China. And this time around, this latest strand of COVID is less than a cold. No one’s dying from it. If you have underlying conditions, I’m not downplaying it, but you know what I mean? Nobody’s really scared of it. And you shouldn’t be scared of it, especially if you’re in good shape and if you’re under 50 years old, 55 years old, you have nothing to worry about at all.
Frank Curzio: So I mean, even, New York is kind of cringing and California. They’re want people to wear masks for the rest of their lives so bad. “We need to control these fucking people for the rest of their lives. Wear masks or you’re going to die.” It’s so sad talking to people from these areas because they are still scared shit of COVID because just the media and the fucking politicians, they scare these people to death. I mean, I see teenagers wearing freaking masks in cars. I mean, come on man. Holy shit. And it’s not their fault. It’s just, again, politicians and controlling shit like that. It’s like a joke. I don’t care what side you on you look at the facts and we’re seeing how stupid, how ridiculous that was.
Frank Curzio: But anyway, see how long China closes for. I think it’s going to be a lot less this time. But more importantly, if you’re looking at the market and if you’re a Curzio Venture subscriber, you’re getting three new recommendations today in my newsletter. Might sound crazy. But I recommended lots of new ideas in May and then in August. So, two in one newsletter, then another two in another newsletter. And you could see the gains in those. Because there’s opportunities, and at certain times, we want to be aggressive. Right now, that’s not being aggressive, saying, go all in, but we’re taking the third position in three different names that are down probably 75, 80% that have no business being there.
Frank Curzio: And when I looked at Russell 2000, I wanted to see where the PE ratio was in compared to other times. And I did it in this newsletter and did a video. I wasn’t really too surprised, a little surprised that the valuation is lower than what it wasn’t in COVID. Are you kidding me? And then when you compare it to even the credit crisis, so we had, the lowest point it hits is like a 20 PE. And when it hits that and it goes a little bit below, it bounces back. We’re at 18 right now. The two times, only two times it fell were the credit crisis and in COVID. And both times, it was pretty quickly, it bounced back significantly and that’s where we are. And that’s what I expected to see.
Frank Curzio: What I didn’t expect to see is when I put up the PEG ratio, and again, I show this in, this is what we do with our newsletters, I’m not going to show it here, but the PEG ratio guys, holy shit, I had no idea. So that’s price, that’s the PE, so you can’t just take a PE, the G is growth, so you factor in growth. Because I always say all the time, if you’re looking at PE ratio, it’s not going to be trading at a 5 PE and be super expensive, if they’re not growing earnings, are not expected to grow earnings. And they’re not seeing sales growth. That’s why it’s cheap. And it’s not going to be trading at 30 times forward earnings and be super cheap if you’re growing those earnings at 70% plus and expect to grow them of over the next two to three years.
Frank Curzio: So, the G factors that in with growth. And you may say, “Well, some of these growth estimates have to come down.” This is now. A lot of the growth estimates came, I mean, not only this earning season, but the past four or five months, we’re seeing a major adjustment in earnings. They’re coming down. So this is updated, right? If you pull up that chart, I went back to 2004. I couldn’t go back to 2000, not on Capital IQ. It just comes in with a weird chart. We’re at a place that we’ve never been in the history of this market. I mean, the PEG ratio is at the lowest point by a mile then it’s ever been. I mean, going back, it could go back all the way to 2000 or even further. I’m not sure.
Frank Curzio: But I mean, you’re not looking at… The PE ratio look, you saw it a couple of times, bounce below 20 and go up. We’re at a level, the lower the PEG ratio, the cheaper and the better opportunity it usually is. You could be at a 1.5 and the stock continue to go higher. But when you look at the whole Russell compared to what’s expected with their earnings growth, and maybe it’s not as strong as it used to be, but we’re trading at a level that you’ve never seen before. I mean, it’s worse, are we right now worse than when we are at COVID, when we had no idea what lockdowns were going, the whole world was locked down. Are we worse right now than that? I would say, no.
Frank Curzio: When companies are cutting their revenue by 90%, which you do not model forever because you have no fricking idea what’s going on or which companies are going to be allowed to stay open. No, we see inflation. We see all the risk. We have the risk. We know the risks. These companies they’re lowering estimates. They’re still making money. They still have tons of cash, so they still have to show balance sheets. Are we worse right now than at the credit crisis? Because based on that PEG ratio for the rest of 2000, we are way, way worse than the credit crisis where we thought the financial system was going to collapse, the world going to collapse.
Frank Curzio: I was on Wall Street. You should have seen it. People under their desk, literally, like, “Holy shit, I don’t know what to do.” And they were going to banks to take out their money. And that was the scare on the inside. There’s a reason why Cramer had that whole way, you have no idea. He would panic. It’s pure panic. That’s why it wasn’t this whole show that, “Hey, I want attention.” It was panic. Because commercial paper market froze, money market accounts going down. It’s supposed to be stable, like a stable coin, right? The same thing we’ve seen with money market accounts.
Frank Curzio: Are we worse off now, because right now by that PEG ratio, it’s showing that we’re way, way, way worse than that, which is insane. And I’m not saying that the market can’t go down further from here. Of course, it could. Just like we saw in January, you look at insiders, I provided a chart of insiders, this is the most that insiders have been buying compared to any other time since the credit crisis. And they got that right. They got it wrong… And so from November, you’re looking from November to January and the market went, that area is one of the largest where insiders, there’s tons of insider purchases. That people getting inside. They were buying alongside.
Frank Curzio: The market went up until January before it crashed again. And it crashed 30%. And like I said earlier, went from like, whatever, 940, the S&P 500 to 666. And it was a nice decline. You’re like, holy shit. But immediately bounced back. So those insiders were right. It still took another leg down. But you were right a few months later and now look how right you were. I mean, buy at 920, whatever. And look 3,800, 10 years, 12 years later. But even we were at 12, 1300, 40% gains, 30% gains from when they bought just like a year and a half, two years later. They were right. These are the people that run their companies. They know what’s going on. They see their supply chain. They’ve gone through these problems. They’ve seen their stock get crushed. There’s more insiders buying their stock than almost any other time in history. That’s a good sign. It’s not a sign that you’re going to catch the bottom and invest.
Frank Curzio: But for me I told you I’m buying a house, I have a house that’s almost fully paid for. And I’m waiting to go into that house, which is going to be built in January. For me personally, I’m going to sell this house quicker because it’s up tremendously over the past few months, take that cash and throw into the market. And that’s me. And that’s going to take my family where we’re going to have to get an apartment for six, nine months and then move into the house, which is a pain in the ass. But that’s how optimistic I am in the market. And you see these bounce backs, and they happen quick because when inflation moderates, and it will, that’s going to be the catalyst where you going to see things pop 20, 30%.
Frank Curzio: Guys, I know shit’s bad. I’ve been talking about it on podcast forever. But right now when you’re down 35%, 40, I mean, the biggest companies, the world, the best, the industry leaders, you get a 125, 130 of S&P 500 companies tradable at 10 times forward earnings and growing those, a lot of them are going to be growing those earnings much faster than that. You got to start picking away here. This is a great opportunity. And it’s an opportunity same what I’ve, and I’m not saying this, like I’m some genius. I’m saying this because I made so many fucking mistakes, especially in 2009. During that time period, I wasn’t buying. 2010, I was still bearish until I really, David Tepper really changed it for me saying, “You know what’s going to go higher? Everything’s going to go higher because the Fed’s at zero interest rates and they’re going to just throw so much money into the system.” Like, holy shit.
Frank Curzio: I’m looking at numbers over the past year. And I’m looking at these companies that look like shit. And the macro environment’s terrible. That’s not. Stop looking back. Look forward. Everything’s going to be much, much easier. And when you see it right now, it’s hard to see because you’re like, “Frank inflation’s through the roof. My portfolio’s down. I’m getting my ass kicked.” We’re close. That’s close. That’s a sign. When you could find almost no positives, that’s usually the sign that, “Hey, you know what, start picking away.” Don’t go all in. You’re going to see more pain ahead over the next couple months. But as you saw with COVID, as you saw with almost every downturn, even the credit crisis, when these things bounce, holy shit.
Frank Curzio: When you see 30, 40% corrections in the market, when they bounce, it’s easy to get 20, 30% gains in weeks, especially now that earning season’s almost over where a lot of these retails reporting, they’re down 35% from their highs and they’re losing another 20, 30%. Holy shit. Just because, it’s for selling. It’s not because their fundamentals aren’t there. It’s people getting out of the market, being scared, but there’s going to be a time when that selling’s going to stop. You’ve seen a lot of leverage come out of the market, and we’re pretty close to that time, guys.
Frank Curzio: Questions, comments, I’m here for you, email@example.com. That’s it for me. Tomorrow I have an amazing interview lined up. It’s an exclusive with David Evans, the CEO of TCG, who I don’t think has done any interviews. He doesn’t like to do interviews. I told him, you’re doing an interview with me. Because when you listen to him and how genuine he is, when he talks about competitors, he doesn’t say, “We’re better.” He says, “We’re different.” He’s not looking at it like, “Oh, I’m looking to make all this money right away.”
Frank Curzio: “This is our long-term strategy. This is what I want to build. This is what I want to leave to my kids.” And when you hear that conversation, which is the conversation I had with him months ago, you’re going to see why TCG is different from everything out there. Because when you take away greed, just like Zuckerberg did. I know people hate him right now. And yes, he’s greedy now, probably, more greedy than he’s ever been. But at the beginning, when he started Facebook, he wasn’t greedy. He was like, “This is the greatest idea ever.” Google, “The greatest idea ever.” When you look at these things at this stage, when you see a vision, and you’re not thinking about how am I going to make so much money off of this, and you’re not taking capital from outside investors because you don’t want to give away your fucking token and shit, it’s pretty cool.
Frank Curzio: So, this is an exclusive. I said, “You’re coming on.” He was cool. He’s like, “I get nervous with these things.” I said, “That’s the thing.” I said, “That’s what’s going to make it more genuine.” I said, “Because that’s what sold me.” Because in a market, especially within crypto, everything’s hyped up and everybody’s talking about how they got the new technology, and they’re the best.
Frank Curzio: He’s just saying, “Look, this is what we’re doing. This is working. This is great. This is how we’re building. This is why so many people are coming in and buying land right now. And they’re signing partnerships. It’s really exciting.” But that interview’s going to go out tomorrow. And again, you’re going to hear about their model, which promotes innovation from developers and users. Something Facebook, Roblox, Fortnite, Decentraland, Sandbox they’re not doing that based on the massive fees that charging developers to build in their metaverse. It’s a big, big difference. You’ll hear about tomorrow. Really good interview. So, be sure to tune in tomorrow. And I’ll see you guys then. Take care.
Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decision solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility.
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