Wall Street Unplugged
Episode: 1006February 9, 2023

How to make a fortune betting on the Super Bowl

I’m taking a break from discussing the markets—and devoting today’s show to Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and my beloved Philadelphia Eagles.

Long-time listeners know I’ve been analyzing the big game for over a decade… And if you want to make a fortune betting on the Super Bowl, DON’T follow my advice.

I’m obviously rooting for the Eagles… but I’ll try to keep my predictions unbiased…

I start with a quick look at how fantasy football has exploded over the years. I also analyze each team in depth… and break down the stats I use to try to determine the winner.

Finally, I share who I think will win… my prediction for the final score… and some prop bets I’d wager on.

Enjoy the game!

Inside this episode:
  • The evolution of fantasy football [2:00]
  • A thorough analysis of the Chiefs [5:25]
  • Breaking down my beloved Eagles [8:45]
  • My predictions for the big game [23:05]
  • Prop bets to take advantage of [26:35]

Wall Street Unplugged | 1006

How to make a fortune betting on the Super Bowl

Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street.

Frank Curzio: How’s it going out there? It’s February 9th. I’m Frank Curzio, host of the Wall Street Unplugged podcast, where I break down the headlines and tell you what’s really moving these markets. Quick note right off the bat: If you do not like football or do not plan on watching the Super Bowl, you can probably skip this podcast because that’s all I’m going to talk about today. For the past 13 years, which my long-term listeners know, I’m providing Super Bowl predictions on this podcast, and I used to do it a few days before the game. Why do I do this? Why do I get tons of emails asking me, Frank, you’re doing a Super Bowl issue, you doing a Super Bowl? It’s because everyone makes a fortune off of my pick. It’s as close to a guarantee as possible, as my record for picking the Super Bowl the past 13 years is absolutely horrible.

Frank Curzio: I only picked the winner two times, which includes a spread. So, it’s been this longstanding joke that every time I break down the Super Bowl, just do the opposite one I’m going to do, sell your house, put everything on it, do the opposite and you’ll be absolutely rich. So, I’ve been doing this for a very, very long time. I’m going to give you the data analysis predictions. Again, all you have to do is bet the opposite of me, you’re going to win money. That’s usually the way it works. Hopefully. Don’t bet a lot of money, you guys know that.

Frank Curzio: I don’t want you to go crazy in this and real quick, if you’re new to this, because I take this very seriously. I’ve been a football fan over 40 years. I’ve been watching football so long, I’m so old now, but long enough where Barry Sanders was on my fantasy football team and people don’t remember it. Back then you had to watch NFL Prime Time, Chris Berman, that’s who we grew up with, to see how your guys on your fantasy team perform because they break down the games and you’re writing down on a piece of paper, there’s no internet.

Frank Curzio: You’re writing them down on a piece of paper, all of them. You’re writing down the other team that you’re playing, their stats for their players and there’s no red zone channel, Direct TV football package, none of that. There was no internet. You only got to watch the local games and then maybe they’ll have another one on at four o’clock or whatever, but it was like two games, sometimes three games. That was the only games you had access to. You didn’t have all these channels and craziness. The millennials don’t really remember that. They think that we’ve been spoiled all this time. Now we’re spoiled. We can watch all the games and the different channels, different ways in streaming, and even when you did watch primetime back then, they didn’t give you the stats for every player, just some of the players. So, you had to wait the next day and I was in New York.

Frank Curzio: You get like the New York Post or the Daily News to look the box scores to see if you won. You didn’t know ’til the next day. It was so hard to see. It was kind of funny. That’s how long I go back. So, let’s break it down with the Super Bowl. If you’re watching us on a YouTube channel, I swear to you there’s no bias here. Even though I have my Eagles hat on, excited. I went to go see the Eagles Super Bowl last time they went in it, but Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Philadelphia Eagles. There’s going to be no bias here, I promise you. Again, Eagles the favorite team on the planet and one of my two wins. So, I said I’m two and 13. One of those two wins, just to let you know upfront was when I told you to bet the Eagles. And Eagles, I think were underdog by five, if I remember correctly.

Frank Curzio: Now it was 2018, which I had this nice bottle that one of my friends got me, this bottle of wine with celebrating the Eagles Championship. I went to that Super Bowl, it was fantastic, but the Eagles actually won that game. So not only did they cover, they won that game, but that was a win for me. One of the two. So, just letting you know that right now, I’m going to pick the Eagles, last time the Eagles were in the Super Bowl. That was then and this is now.

Frank Curzio: So this game, the Eagles are favored by one and a half line opened up with the Chiefs favored by one. Now it’s Eagles favored by one and a half. The under over is about 50 and a half I believe. That has been going up. It’s important to understand the trends because a lot of times, most of the time, I would say more than 70% of the time when I was looking at it, the trends, meaning where they’re going, where the spread’s going, the eagle spread has gone up because the chief’s fa also the under over has been going up, I think it was 49 and some places, 51.

Frank Curzio: I think it’s 50, 50 and a half now. When you see that trend it’s usually, I think it’s 70% of the times that trend goes in your favor. Let’s see, I’m hoping that for the Eagles, Because I’m a Eagles fan, but the comparison between these two teams are pretty amazing. Listen to this. Both teams finished 16 and three, which includes the playoffs. They’re both number one seeds, so they both got buys. Both scored exactly the same points this year. 546, that’s insane. Both teams averaged exactly 4.6 yards per carry, in a running game, and both teams have four takeaways in their postseason wins. That’s pretty crazy, but let’s break it down team by team and try to keep up and pay attention. Again, a lot of stats, a lot of analysis, and then I’m going to give you my pick and also prop bets. By the way, my prop bets, I have a pretty good track record with my prop bets, seriously.

Frank Curzio: So that… That’s one thing you might want to pay attention to, but the Super Bowl pick, yeah, you probably better off doing the opposite, but here we go. Starting with the Chiefs, everyone knows Mahomes, best quarterback in the world does have a high ankle sprain, which limits his mobility, which is where Mahomes usually is at his best. Scrambling out of that pocket and throwing deep and finding people. That’s when he is amazing. I don’t know if he’s going to be able to run out of the pocket. He had two weeks to get better. I think he’s going to be 125%. They’re going to shoot him up with horse tranquilizers given that this is the last game of the year. So, I’m expecting Mahomes to be just fine. He could re-injure his ankle if he gets sacked or something like that, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not fully mobile running around, maybe just not running as much and being a little careful, but I don’t see this being a problem.

Frank Curzio: Last game, you saw it, he’s a great pocket passer, but still, when he is outside the pocket, that’s when he’s great and he’s going to need to run a little bit, especially with the Eagle’s defensive pass rush, is very good. I’ll get to that in a minute. Mahomes does have a great offensive line. Orlando Brown, Thuney, Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie. These guys are great and they’re going to need to be great again because when you’re looking at Philly, one of the best defensive lines in the league, and they were great, and they were especially great against the Bengals last game, but if you’re looking at the Eagles when you have Hargrave and Fletcher Cox. Those two names are very popular and I would say they’re ranked four and fifth on the team right now behind Josh Sweat, Robert Quinn, Brandon Graham, and of course Haason Reddick, one of the best pass rushers in the entire league.

Frank Curzio: I’m glad he is getting this attention because he didn’t really get that much attention. I think they had four different pass rushers with 10 sacks each, almost never happens. But you also look at TJ Edwards, a great linebacker, but the Eagles recorded 70 sacks a season, ranking them third ever, and you know who they tied? The ’87 bears. Arguably, and maybe you don’t want to even argue, but considered the best defense in the history of the league. One of them, okay, you could argue. A lot of people think that that is the best defense. That amounts over four sacks per game. Mahomes knows this. He’s also one of the quickest at getting the ball out. He’s one of the least sacked quarterbacks, so that could be good for quick passes, tight end, we’ll cover that in a second.

Frank Curzio: And you saw what that does when Brady, what Brady did to the Seahawks in the past in 2015. That game was also in Arizona and yes, I lost that Super Bowl. I picked the Seahawks, which is most of the Super Bowls I lost, but I think Mahomes is going to have a really good game. He has a tendency to throw interceptions in Super Bowls. He did so in both Super Bowl appearances. Both games he did not play great. He did win the Super Bowl. He had an unbelievable fourth call, first recorders. He was terrible, terrible, terrible, horrible. And he was just big. He was new to the game, to the Super Bowl. He didn’t really play well. He definitely did not play as good as he is in the last two Super Bowls, which I don’t know if that’s going to be a factor or not.

Frank Curzio: I mean, is it going to be like, “Hey, I’m not messing up this time, I have the experience,” or is it going to put more pressure on him to actually perform because they really, really need him to have a great game. They need him to have a great game. It’s not like they can control the ball running and stuff like that. Even though again, we’ll get to the running in a second. They got a very great running back over there. I’m expecting at least 260 yards, two TDs. That might be a little bit below his average this year, but I just think, yeah, with this Super Bowl, we’ll see. They’re going to have to score running, but I think that’s what kind of game he’s going to have, two TDs. Jalen Hurts, one of the best quarterbacks in the league, an unbelievable record and he only lost one game this year that he started. His ability to run sets apart from other traditional quarterbacks because he doesn’t just run.

Frank Curzio: This is one of the things where I realized the Eagles are going to be good, is it’ll be third and eight and he’s running and he’ll get five yards and he’ll just dive on the ground. He doesn’t get hit often. Yes, he got hurt, running, but he doesn’t get hit hard often. He throws the ball away, which that is such a great play compared to throwing a stupid interception, which we saw Carson Wentz, and we still see with him, which is sad. Always trying to make the extra play. Lots of fumbles. You didn’t see that. You didn’t see a lot of turnovers from Hurts this year. He was very, very smart with the ball. I do think his shoulder is still hurting. He threw for less than 200 yards in his past two playoff games. He overthrew a couple of people. Deep pass, he’s been very good with the Deep Pass.

Frank Curzio: He’s been good enough because it didn’t really matter during those games, Giants, the 49ers, the Giants, they rush for 268 yards, jury touchdowns and then they rush for 111 yards and three scores against the 49ers, which is even more impressive considering the 49ers defense, and they give up less than 78 yards rushing. So the Eagles, you could say, “Well they knocked out the quarterback or whatever, they still have one of the best defenses and they ran on that defense at will,” which was pretty impressive. And again, it gets easier and easier as you’re running and running, your offense on the field more because they had a quarterback that really couldn’t throw the ball two feet. So, your defense on the field even longer, they’re going to get tired, so you’re going to give up running yards, more running yards. Anyway, with that said, Hurts has to have a good game throwing, because the Chief’s corners, they don’t have experience.

Frank Curzio: They have one guy that is actually amazing, is a rookie and he was flipping burgers at Wendy’s or whatever. Great story. These guys, sometimes when you’re young, that’s great because you don’t realize how big the moment is and you have so much confidence compared to sometimes being there and having that experience and it makes you more nervous because you’re expected to perform. These guys are not expected to do anything. You can say, Well you’re a rookie, that’s why you play like shit. So, that might give them an edge, I don’t know. But I do know that they’ve been beat a lot deep this year, not so much when it came to the last game, and they played against a great wide receiving core when it comes to the Bengals. But you’re looking at DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown are two of the best wide receivers in the entire league.

Frank Curzio: I think it’s one out of six teams that have 2000 yard plus receivers. Just guys that could run any route, take it to the house, just unbelievable. And again, Hurts missed AJ Brown and he missed DeVonta Smith, which they called the catch. But again, he, he was overthrowing a lot of passes. I don’t know if it was shoulder or if he’s nervous, but we’ll see. Also, while Hurts had an incredible year, one of the best quarterback ratings, while not being under pressure ranked second best, but he only ranks 12th in quarterback rating when he is under pressure. So, expect the Chiefs to bring some heat and they have one of the best defensive coordinators who’s out there, who does a great job disguising blitzes. I’ll break down the coaches later on, but the Eagles, when I’m looking at the Eagles, they do have an incredible offensive line and I think they have a really big advantage here.

Frank Curzio: Consider the Chief’s best pass rusher is Chris Jones, right? If Frank Clark was, Chris Jones is awesome, but he’s matched up against Lane Johnson who is the best tackle on football by a mile, maybe one of the best that ever lived. The guy hasn’t given up a sack in over two years and just to see how good he is, Nick Bosa was named the defensive player of the year. That’s by Football Writers America, there’s like 20 people that come out that named the best player, but it’s hard to argue that Bosa wasn’t the defensive player of the year this year. And where was he that game? He was nowhere. Okay, Lane Johnson locked them up, didn’t have a sack, right. That’s the best of the year. I think Bosa’s much, much better than Chris Johnson. And when he’s playing, he’s great. And again, he’s going to be shot up.

Frank Curzio: He’s a little injured, but he played great the last two games. So, these guys are going to get shot up the last game of the year that were painkillers or whatever. So yeah, I wouldn’t really worry about injuries. I’ve seen Travis Kelce bent his leg backwards. I remember playing against him in fantasy football and I was like, he’s done. Oh my god, he’s done. He came out, he scored two touchdowns, and then he wound up missing four games after that. And I had that with my hip. I have a hip replacement surgery, and for a year, they were giving me a needle, and I’m telling you, when they give you that, they were like, “We’ll give you that, the pain medicine until it no longer works,” and it didn’t work. And that’s when I got my hip replacement. But I’ll tell you, when they gave me that, I could run 20 miles immediately.

Frank Curzio: It’s unbelievable. You don’t feel anything. So, when I look at that matchup, I think with the offensive line, I think the Eagles have an advantage. Eagles also have Kelce, Mailata, Dickerson. If they give Hurts protection, it’s going to be very difficult to stop the Eagles from scoring at will, given their great running game. And also Dallas Goedert. One of the best tight ends of the league, but overshadowed since Kelce is the best tight end of all time and unbelievable. But I expect Goedert to have a solid game as well. Kelce, man, the amount of catches for the under-over I think is eight and a half. That’s high. I was like, wow, he’s definitely going to have a lot of catches. And then, when I saw the eight and a half, I’m like, man, I don’t know if I bet that though, that’s a lot, especially since a lot of their wide receivers, they don’t have really a great wide receiving core, getting rid of Tyreek Hill.

Frank Curzio: Hardman is not playing, so their wide receiver core isn’t the greatest, but you have Mahomes, and these guys need to get open, and let’s see what happens on that front. As for Hurts, I think he’s going to need to throw at least two tee tees to win this game. That’s going to open up the running game, which includes Hurts, who by the way, could have a monster game running the ball, since the Chiefs play more man-to-man D than anyone. And when you play man-to-man, basically, you’re on your wide receiver and you’re following them everywhere compared to zone, you drop back, and then you’re watching the quarterback and you see everything. It’s not as easy to run. You can stop the run right away. When it’s man-to-man, you could run 20, 30 yards sometimes before anyone even knows that you’re running. They’re going to have someone as a spy or whatever.

Frank Curzio: But when Hurts sees this, he’s able to read the defenses right away, and that’s one of the things he was really great at this season. He’s beat that person who just trails him, that one-on-one. He beats that match up almost every time and that could result in big place and extra first downs for them. So, we’ll see. Plus the fact, again, not just making up stats here, but Chiefs give up the fifth most rushing guards to quarterbacks this year. Again, probably because they play so much man-to-man. Wide receivers, Eagles have a big edge here. DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, I don’t even think that’s close. These two, the best wide receivers in the game. This compares to the Chiefs with Smith Chester, Valdes-Scantling, although I do like Tony, he played for the Giants and he kind of sucked and had an ankle injury, whatever, but he’s explosive.

Frank Curzio: I think he could have a big game, right? He’s fast, strong, could run great routes. Remember that name in the Super Bowl, Tony, because I think you could have a really good game. I actually would bet a prop bet, which I’m going to tell you later on him having at least one touchdown. Chiefs are ranked 31 out of 32 teams when guarding number one receivers. So, look for the Eagles to take some shots deep, probably right out the gate, and if they’re able to connect on that, it’s going to change the whole landscape of the game because they have a great running game. If they don’t connect, they get out of sync, which I’ve seen during the season, especially with Washington. One of the ways to beat the Eagles is to control the running game, keep them off the field. Washington has done that. I’ve seen, who was it?

Frank Curzio: I think it was the Colts they almost lost to. They should have lost that game. They didn’t lose to the Colts, but Colts kept them off the field. They scored too late touchdowns and wound up winning that game. But keeping them off the field, that’s what you need to do. It’s going to be hard if you’re giving up deep passes, but we’ll see if that rookie defensive court does well for the Chiefs. Eagles also have one of the best running attacks in the league. Miles Sanders having his best year, Gainwell’s also been great when given the opportunity, just an awesome running back. He’s a starting running back in most leagues, just Miles Sanders has been that great. If they get the running game going again, you got to be careful, Casey, we saw when the running game gets going, your defense gets tired. We saw it against the Giants.

Frank Curzio: We saw that against San Francisco. I saw that again, Eagles, when they lost that game to Washington. You get the running game going. And by the way, Casey is great at running the ball as well. Really, really great at running the ball. I throw out the full year stats if you’re looking at them. I just look at Pacheco, who’s starting running back, where he took over mid-season, and this guy’s been fantastic. He’s a physical running back, fast runner. He pumps up the team because he carries guys on his back and stuff. This guy’s really, really great. He’s pretty amazing considering he’s a rookie. He was picked 251st in the set round of the draft. That would make me a little nervous. He could have a fumble in a game. You see that from rookies and stuff because they’re going to rely on him because he’s that good.

Frank Curzio: And then, they have McKinnon. McKinnon could be massive in this game, catching a ball out of the backfield. He lit the league up for Kansas City in the past five games of the regular season. I know because I want to say I picked him up in fantasy, but my partner picked him up in fantasy, and we wound up winning a league and a lot had to do with McKinnon because he was our flex option. So, that’s a third running back for all you non-fantasy leaguers out there. And we picked him up, and he was scoring like 20 points a week. He was getting one, two touchdowns a game. He got over a hundred yards receiving this guy that’s very fast out of the backfield, hard to tackle and that can be very big, especially with quick passes right out of the backfield to try to protect Mahomes on that pass rush.

Frank Curzio: So, McKinnon can have a really good game. Overall Philly and Casey, they match up well. I would say the two major differences, or maybe three, I mean, Kelce is just a freak. I love it. I love that the brothers are playing because both of those guys are cool and shit. But Kelce, you’re going to have to have some wide receivers step up. I like what since he did, they said okay. When they beat Jacksonville, and I felt like Jacksonville should have played a lot better that game. But when Jacksonville lost that game, they gave up so many passes. They were the worst in guarding tight ends, Jacksonville. But then, if you look at the last game, and since he did a great job saying, okay Kelce, we’ll let you get your numbers. That’s not what Belichick does. He usually shuts down the best players.

Frank Curzio: They were like, We’ll let you get your numbers. And since he should have won that game, since just they didn’t protect the quarterback, their offensive line was hurt, it really exposed them. They weren’t exposed in Buffalo I think because it was snowing and they really could get traction there, but they really got exposed. They got the ball back twice. They got the ball back twice from Kansas City and they couldn’t score, which is, again, I thought that Cinci they would win that game and they didn’t, so great for KC. But two more major differences is the experience. Andy Reid, one of the best NFL coaches ever. Eagle fans know this. He’s 61 years old. Former coach of the Eagles, I think he went to four championship games, but he never won the big game for us. He waited to go to the Chiefs to do that, and it was kind of like a mutual, when he left, it was time. For all coaches, it’s like a time period. It’s nice, you have them. And then, when things aren’t going so good and they’ll go for another team.

Frank Curzio: It’s just a good split, very respectful, but tons of experience along with Mahomes, which this is going to be his third Super Bowl in four years. I mentioned earlier defensive coordinator, right? Spagnuolo, he’s fantastic. He disguises a blitz better than anyone and he’s going to have to do that. The disguise of blitz, because you see the pass rating go down significantly when he has pressure on him, when Hurts has pressure on him. So, you’re going to see a lot of blitz in this game. You have to see a lot of blitzes because he’s the second-best quarterback when he’s not getting pressured. You have to put pressure on him. It’s kind of like Brady, it’s kind of like Mahomes, Brady, Mahomes the same thing. If you put no pressure on those guys, they will light you up tremendously.

Frank Curzio: But you see when there’s pressure put on Brady what happens and how it’s a totally different game. So, tons of experience there. This compared to Sirianni, who’s just 41 years old, second-year head coach for the Eagles who did lead them to the playoffs last year, but they got crushed by the Bucks. Offensive-minded coach, which you see, allowed Hurts to thrive. They have a great relationship, they’re always on the same page these guys. They just have a lot of fun. But that experience is big and it’s going to matter and challenging plays and timeouts and how they’re going to use that during the game. This is really big. And having that experience, it’s really big in this particular game, that experience. The older coach, this is a great set. So, experience is huge for the Super Bowl. Since 2010, the older coach has got nine and four in Super Bowls.

Frank Curzio: Is that a good sign for the Eagles? Another major difference is the quarterbacks and just defensive backs in general. Casey has four rookie defensive backs. That makes him the first team entering the Super Bowl with four rookie defensive backs in over 40 years. It doesn’t happen because you need to be great in that area in the Super Bowl, you can’t give up big plays. That’s what you don’t want to do. You want to run, run, run, run, run. It’s fine, but you don’t want to give up play, boom. It deflates the defense, and everyone’s playing hard.

Frank Curzio: One guy doesn’t do his job, and it’s a 60-yard pass touchdown. These guys have to play great. They played great last game again against amazing wide receiver, Cinci. The Super Bowl is different, much bigger stage. Sometimes younger players, like I said earlier, they play great, they play great. They don’t realize the stage or whatever. But also I feel like they take more chances and try to be heroes more. And if you do that and if you pump fake, you’re going to give up a set. You’re talking about the two of the best wide receivers in the entire league, these guys.

Frank Curzio: So, what DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown, and I’d argue that Devonta Smith might be better than AJ Brown. The catches. And I watch every Eagles game, the catches that this guy makes, the route said he runs, you throw it near him, it’s a catch, sidelines. He has everything. He has speed, breakaway ability. AJ Brown’s amazing as well, much stronger, but man, he is unbelievable. That’s an unbelievable pick. So, they got to be sharp. While on the other end, you look at the Eagle’s amazing defensive backfield. Darius Slay, Gardner Johnson probably would’ve led the league in inceptions. He was out for a couple of games, came back a couple of games ago. Bradbury, Maddox, these guys have been very, very solid throughout the whole year. Very consistent throughout the whole year. You’re not seeing the Eagles getting blown out or whatever. Just very consistent, very smart.

Frank Curzio: They play together, they communicate together and have been great all year. And that’s important because you can’t give up the big plays, which they don’t do. I think they’re ranked number one in a league and when in terms of giving up those big plays are defending against those plays. They defend them the best in the league. They’re going to need to be at their best since Mahomes almost never take sacks. They could be heart to sack even though they have a great defense. So, they need to be really, really good. We’ll see if they’re playing up on the receivers, which opens up the deep end. But those are two major things that are going to impact the game. My prediction, now here it comes. After breaking it down, the stats, the analysis. Sounds good, whatever everything I’m saying. I have the Eagles winning 31, 21, and here’s why.

Frank Curzio: When I look back at past Super Bowls, what wins Super Bowls most of the time? Most of the time it’s the offensive defensive lines and the Eagles are better on both sides of that ball, both sides of the ball. Okay? So, that means you’re going to control the game. Experience is huge. Mahomes, I expect to outplay Hurts, but like we saw in the last two games when Eagles bought the Giants and the 49ers, you need Hurts to be decent. If you could have one touchdown and one deep play, it’s going to open up the whole entire field for them and they really have no weaknesses on offense. Got a great tight end who’s awesome and blocks. It’s one thing about Kelce, he doesn’t block, but he’s the best tight end that ever lived. He’s great. He could score two, three touchdowns and just amazing hands and very, very smart.

Frank Curzio: Knows where to go to open, so he knows the plays, he knows exactly what Mahomes’ going to do just by seeing who lines up. He’s like with Gronkowski, same way, just always on the same page is amazing. But you, Godard is great. You got two great wide receivers, you have a great offensive line. Bunch of running backs then come in, everything’s really solid. So, they’re going to need to play very, very good, and we’ll see. But I don’t think Hurts needs to be great. He can be decent because a running game is that good with the best offensive line of football. We’ve seen them win the last two games just through running. Hurts had decent games, but he didn’t have great games where he passed lights out. Their running game really dominated, offensive line dominated these teams, especially towards the end of the game.

Frank Curzio: I hope I’m right on this one. I have to call it how it is. Got to pretend not to be Eagles fan or the biggest Eagles fan on the planet, that is. But for you, the bet is the Chiefs. I’m hoping that the Eagles actually win by one point. This way you guys win your bet and my Eagles take home the Super Bowl trophy. So, that would be a good thing. But if the Eagles win this game by 10, I’m not betting the Eagles. I don’t bet the Eagles at all. I just don’t bet on my favorite teams. I bet props and things like that. But the last two games, if I had a bet, I just felt like the Eagles were really, really good. Were much better when I looked at the whole package and the Chiefs are coming into this game not playing great, but they do have the experience.

Frank Curzio: Again, I think they should have lost that game. The Eagles just are just blowing out people. You don’t know how it’s going to be in a close game. You don’t know how Hurts is going to be in a close game. That could be scary. And plus turnovers are a big deal. Hurts comes out, throws an inception immediately, it changed the whole complex of the game. Is he going to lose confidence? Is he not? I know Mahomes isn’t going to lose confidence if he throws an interception right away, that guy’s just going to throw and sling and do whatever. He’s going to have that confidence because he has been there. But I really believe if both of these teams play their best game, that the Eagles are more than seven points better than them. If they both play their best games, that means nothing, that’s on paper.

Frank Curzio: We’ll see what happens. But for you guys, like I said, the bet would be the Chiefs based on my track record. So, sell your house, sell everything, and throw it on the Chiefs, and hopefully, I’m not pissed off. I’ll be happy for you guys, but I’ll be pissed off if the Eagles lose. But it should be pretty cool, let’s see. I just think the Eagles are the better team. They’ve been the better team all year. They’ve only had two really bad games with Hurts being out, but other than that, they’re really solid. Let’s just see, teams when you’re playing a big stage could play different, and they might just lay an egg like the Chiefs did. The Chiefs almost lost that second Super Bowl. They should have won the second Super Bowl. They played absolutely like shit for three quarters. They had I think a third and 17 that Mahomes made, and then they just went on and they blew out, winning that Super Bowl. The last Super Bowl that Mahomes was in.

Frank Curzio: So, that’s my prediction. Before I go though, let’s go for a few prop bets. Again, told you all Super Bowl today, we’ll see what happens. I get the most emails when I do the Super Bowl, so a couple ones I like and again, been very good in these past years. I love Boston Scott, who’s a running back for the Eagles to get at least one TD, a hundred dollars bet, pager 475. I think the shutting get two TDs in this game, which should pay you $5,000. By the way, Scott scored both playoff games for the Eagles this year. He comes in inside the 10 yard line, usually when they’re from the five to 10 yard line, when you’re not going to see Hurts run, they have this four spread out and again, the ball… And it looks like it’s past players, and he usually walks the ball right into the end zone. That’s how he scores his touchdowns.

Frank Curzio: I think he could be very, very big in this game in terms of touchdowns and that that’s a sleeper player. I like the under and passing attempts for Hurts at 32. I don’t think he’s going to have to throw that much. I want him to throw a little bit more. He’s got to throw some deep passes, but 32, I think, is a little high. I think they can be running the ball a little bit more, especially if the game is closer. I like the bet where any player, any single player to have a 55-yard plus reception, 100 dollars will pay you 250. I think that’s going to be DaVonta Smith, with a 55-yard plus reception. Maybe Valdes-Scantling maybe, but I think that we’re going to see one of those from one of these guys.

Frank Curzio: Both of them could throw deep ball very, very well. Both of them got to be putting pressure on the quarterback, leaving those guys exposed. I think that you’re going to see a 55-yard plus pass away, at least one of them. I like Patrick Mahomes to rush for over 18 and a half yards. I think he’s going to be shot up with so much pain meds that he’ll be able to run a marathon at Super Bowl Sunday. I don’t blame him, but because I don’t think the Eagles are going to be playing that too much. I think they’re going to give him the run and see if he runs and if he runs, they’ll try to hit him or whatever. Again, they’re going to go after the weaknesses and stuff like that, like every team would do. But I don’t see them playing Mahomes to run, which means he’s going to have open areas to run.

Frank Curzio: And he did run for a little bit last game. The last one, Kadarius Toney, Chiefs wide receiver. I like him as a crazy bet as a first Chief’s TD scorer. So, he’ll score the first TD for the Chiefs, not the first TD overall. First TD for the Chiefs, difference in bet. 100 dollar bet pays you 800 dollars. Those are my prop bets. That’s my prediction. Man, I hope I’m right on my prediction. I don’t care about my terrible track record for picking Super Bowls because the Eagles are in it. All bets are off. And the last time I picked the Eagles, and again, I picked it as an honest bet or whatever, but the Eagles did win the game. It was one of the last times that I won when it came to Super Bowls. So, there it is. Eagles winning by 10, which probably means that Chiefs will win by 20.

Frank Curzio: Let’s see what happens. So guys, this is it from me. Have a great weekend. Enjoy the Super Bowl with your family, fun commercials. Enjoy it. Laugh, joke around. Pretend it’s not like the State of the Union speech, where everyone’s going to be yelling at each other and bullshit and middle of things. No politics, no nothing. Lots of food, lots of beer. Any advice you want, make sure you have fun. It’s always a great day. And man, it’s going to be a lot of money be bet on the Super Bowl, it’s probably going to hit a record and a lot of people, probably record amount of people that are going to be watching it with these teams. And one last thing I’ll say is, so far, the Super Bowl tickets are being sold 70%. It’s going to be 70% likely Eagle fans, 30% for KC fans.

Frank Curzio: Eagle fans travel, great. It was like 75, 80% when I went to Super Bowl, only because the Pats make the Super Bowl every year, and people can’t afford to go to the Super Bowl every year. So, they played the Pats. There was lots of Eagle fans there. So, it’s going to be kind of like a home crowd for them, which they’re going to need. They’re definitely going to need as an inexperienced team, inexperienced quarterback, inexperienced coach, but they’re definitely going to need that. So, something to which people aren’t talking about where, I’m not going to say it’s a home game for them, but there’s definitely going to be more Eagle fans there than KC fans. So guys, go Eagles, and hopefully, I’ll see you very, very happy next week. Take care.

Announcer: Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decision solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money and your responsibility.

Frank Curzio
Frank Curzio, founder and CEO of Curzio Research, is one of America’s most respected stock experts. His research is regularly featured on media outlets like CNBC’s Kudlow Report, The Call, CNN Radio, ABC News, and Fox Business News. His Wall Street Unplugged podcast—ranked the No. 1 “most listened-to” financial podcast on iTunes—has been downloaded over 12 million times.
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