Transcript was automatically generated.

Frank Curzio 00:00

How’s it going out there? It’s Wednesday, March 18th.

Frank Curzio 00:04

I’m Frank Curzio, your Wall Street Unplugged podcast, bringing the headlines and, uh, tell you what’s really moving these markets.

Frank Curzio 00:15

Are we saying Patrick’s Day? Celebrating today since yesterday we didn’t have the podcast. We did have a special podcast yesterday, DGXX Interview, with Michel, CEO. Went very well with that stock. But happy St. Patrick’s Day to you, Daniel. How’s it going, man? How’s everything?

Daniel Creech 00:31

Very well, sir. How are you? Happy, happy late St. Patrick’s Day.

Frank Curzio 00:34

Just the environment, in the right environment, Guinness.

Daniel Creech 00:36

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 00:36

I don’t know about Guinness in a bottle, but.

Daniel Creech 00:38

We were just chatting about this. Frank and I haven’t had Guinness by itself without an Irish car bomb, and I don’t know that I’ve ever had it.

Frank Curzio 00:45

My Irish car bomb story was with my wife when I first met her. One of my close friends I haven’t seen in like three, four years I play basketball with, uh, show up at the bar, and we were hanging out. And I remember talking to her the very first time. That’s where I met her, and we did about three or four of those.

Daniel Creech 01:00

Whew.

Frank Curzio 01:01

And then.

Daniel Creech 01:02

Stop when he stop you? No offense. I know how this ends. Knocking.

Frank Curzio 01:05

Uh, apparently all I know is I, I, I got her number that night, and I told her that she had to put it into my phone. And when I looked at the phone, I had no idea that person was what they looked like. And then when I went there, I was like, “Oh, shit.” You know? So, yeah, the Irish car bombs be very careful, very, very careful. But, uh, happy St. Patrick’s Day, especially to my mom.

Frank Curzio 01:24

She is the Irish side of the family.

Daniel Creech 01:26

Mm.

Frank Curzio 01:26

But my dad is the Italian side. So, uh, yeah, had so much fun on St. Patrick’s Day. And, uh, yeah, it’s always been a great holiday for us with my mom and cooking and stuff like that. It’s been really cool. So happy St. Patrick’s Day, everyone. Even though it’s a day late, and make sure you have a beer. Even though Guinness in a bottle’s a little weird, but, mm, definitely want to celebrate. And also, favorite time of the year, Daniel.

Daniel Creech 01:46

Mm-hmm.

Frank Curzio 01:46

I’m going to talk about this later. NCAA tournament. I’m going to give you my bracket breakdown. I don’t know if you want to listen. The last four, five years, I’ve been horrible at this. I mean, I played basketball in my life, 40 years. I love it. I used to be really, really good picking the brackets, but lately I haven’t been that good. I think I picked Kentucky to win it all the year. They lost in the first round, which is great,right? You don’t have to worry about anything.

Frank Curzio 02:05

You just sit down and be like, “Okay, I’m done,” and say goodbye. So, uh, with all these brackets filling out, we do have a bracket for you. And, uh, I have a feeling I’m going to win the NCAA tournament bracket. What do you get? $1 million if you pick every game, correct?

Daniel Creech 02:16

Does Buffett still do that?

Frank Curzio 02:17

Something like that? I don’t know. I don’t know if he does that. It’s such a great way to… I think it’s like 0.000. I think it’s… you could win like a billion-dollar lottery. You got better odds. But it’s so great that when you read the disclaimers on these things, like the All-State thing, they’re like, “They take your life and are going to sell it to everyone who wants to bid for it.” That’s… so don’t read the disclaimer when you go into this, because they make you sign the disclaimer.

Frank Curzio 02:37

It’s like, “Okay, if we take your name and sell it to the entire freaking world.” Uh, but that’s kind of disclaimers that are on every single websiteright now. So whenever you see that pop up, be very, very careful when it says, uh, uh, you know, because people just… if you don’t click it, they just assume that you click it,right? But if you click it and it says, “Are you okay with our private party?” And then you click it just to get the information when you’re looking something up on a website for the first time.

Frank Curzio 02:57

But just be careful, because what they do with that name, forget it. It’s the reason why you’re getting calls every single day of your life with someone trying to give you a $200,000 loan, which I get probably six times a day, I think. I’m actually going to take them up and see the whole entire thing and just give them all fake information and stuff and see how much information I can get and maybe put it live. I just want to see what it’s about,

Frank Curzio 03:15

because, man, if I took up on all these loans, I’d probably get loans for about, uh, you know, $10 million. But yeah, all the scams and stuff like that and all the information’s got… anyway, we won’t go there. But let’s talk about the markets, Daniel, because they open up positive. Oh, I don’t know if they open up positive. They were positive in the pre-market,right? And then we got information which was kind of dialed down.

Frank Curzio 03:35

No one’s really focused on it because we got the Fed meeting later, and everyone really focuses when it comes to inflation to CPI, the Consumer Price Index. But there’s a wholesale number called the PPI, Producer Price Index, that came out, and the markets immediately reversed where the Dow was down three, four hundred points, uh, on this. And it’s a pretty big deal. And I just think it overtook the news of the day,

Frank Curzio 03:55

which is Nvidia at its conference. We’ll talk about that in a little while. Also that RAC war and things like that. But this number was not positive. I don’t know if you saw it.

Daniel Creech 04:03

I did. I ran war. Um.

Frank Curzio 04:06

I ran. I was saying RAC.

Daniel Creech 04:08

And I’ll couple that because… good lead-in, because I do think the PPI number came in hot. So it was expecting 0.30. 0.3 came in at 0.7. Obviously, that’s a big surprise to the upside. Frank, how you like this headline? “Hottest PPI since January of 2025.” It’s not what you want to see. A lot of end, um, final demand.

Daniel Creech 04:26

The only thing that I’ll complain about this is I can’t stand to see brokerage fees and such in there, because I think that that’s just silly. I understand we look at everything, blah, blah, blah. Um, no doubt this is going to impact the Fed. This gives Jerome Powell in one of his last… this is the second to last meeting today. I think it gives him the ammo that he needs to continue to just keep his foot on the brake and,

Daniel Creech 04:46

uh, talk about inflation upcoming. Remember, he already used tariffs coming down the pipeline, uh, for the last several. For the last year and a half. He’s going to use oil prices and this ongoing war now, in my opinion. But I think coupled with the hot PPI number, Frank, the bombing is increasing with Iran. And there was news. And what I think really whipsawed markets this morning from green to red was we are now…

Daniel Creech 05:08

we, United States and Israel, are bombing natural gas fields in Iran. That was the latest. And then Iran says, “Hey, you better get out of the UAE, Saudi Arabia production facilities or oil and natural gas.” So I, I can’t believe that markets aren’t down more, and I can’t believe that CNBC and those cheerleaders aren’t going crazy over this.

Daniel Creech 05:28

So I’m, I’m a little odd there, Frank.

Frank Curzio 05:30

So, so here’s a big thing with the PPI. Inflation, uh, on a year basis is 3.4%, uh, which is, uh, again, the highest, like you said, since January.

Daniel Creech 05:40

Yeah.

Frank Curzio 05:40

Uh, over a year ago. Not this January, but the January before. And when I looked at it, this wasn’t something… and you could do this with a lot of the economic numbers, and they’re all lagging,right? By the way, this inflation number predates the bombing, which was late February. So when even higher food prices… food prices rose 2.4%, energy up 2.3%.

Frank Curzio 06:01

It’s not reflecting what we’re seeingright now with food prices. Although fresh, uh, and dry vegetables… did you see that? They rose 49%. What happened to like a 10% increase by… and then all the 10%… they’re like, “F it, man. Let’s just go. You know, let’s just double the pricesright now.” Uh, when I look at this number,

Frank Curzio 06:20

what’s scary is, you know, we’re looking at, uh, a core number that that’s extremely high now. Uh, and, you know, with that core number going higher and higher, uh, remember the Fed is saying that inflation should be at 2%. And, you know, we look at the core. The core is a lot higher than that. So,

Frank Curzio 06:39

you know, it is pretty scary where the Fed’s, uh, target for inflation is 2%, and we’re looking at this, uh, you know, on the core level at pushing towards 4%, which is crazy. So, you know, almost double. So, uh, it wasn’t from tariffs. It wasn’t from one-offs,right, that we see with a lot of this data.

Frank Curzio 06:58

It was actually for, like you said, services and brokerage fees and stuff like that. But services is not what the Fed wants to see, because they can’t use short-term measures to control services. That’s not what they want to see. Okay. Other measures they could use, and they could get prices down. And, and, you know, we’ve seen it before. But, uh, the market is pushing lower because what does this mean?

Frank Curzio 07:17

It means it drastically reduces the odds of a rate cut this year. And the Fed’s going to address this. The Fed knew this number before it came out, by the way. So it’s not like they’re going to change their meeting because of this number. They, they, you know, they knew this number before it came out, but it drastically reduces the odds of a rate cut this year where we’re sitting at 3.5, 3.75,right, Daniel?

Frank Curzio 07:36

So before this report, there was a 70% chance of a Fed… of the Fed cutting rates this year. That got cut to 60% for just one rate cut for the year. In fact, if you go through September, which is the bigger news, going through September, there’s less than a 50% chance rate cut all the way through September now. I mean, September, it gets a little bit higher than it is in June.

Frank Curzio 07:55

Obviously, those numbers come down tremendously. But you’re saying at a 50%… there’s less than a 50% chance that they’re going to cut, uh, through September.

Daniel Creech 08:03

Yeah. That’s a lot.

Frank Curzio 08:04

And I’m not sure the markets are pricing in zero rate cuts this year. They’re not, actually. They’re not pricing that in, because if this happens, I could tell you that we’re going to see the stock market move lower to the tune of probably 10%, at least this year. And I’ll tell you why. Because,

Frank Curzio 08:23

you know, we’re setting up an interesting scenario where Trump… you got the midterm elections coming. Trump has to, you know, is… okay, we’re going to give him tax checks. We’re not doing it now. He’s going to do it probably a month or two before the midterm elections. You want to see the stock market going higher. This is all based on lower interest rates. I mean, not that we’re trading at a crazy expensive valuation at 21 times forward earnings when we’re growing those earnings.

Frank Curzio 08:45

Expect to grow earnings by 15%. Okay. Usually, we’re trading at, on the 10-year average, I believe it’s 18 times forward earnings, and we grow those earnings usually at 7-8%,right? Soright now, it sounds like we’re super expensive, but, you know, this scenario between what Trump’s going to do, because he wants rates to be cut by 1% and, you know, fully by the end of the year, this…

Frank Curzio 09:06

it can’t happen with inflation surging lately. And it’s surging. Make no mistake. It’s surging. So we don’t get the rate cuts. Look out, because housing has been rolling over, and it’s getting worse and worse each passing month. I mean, just finance activity. I think rates are at the highest level in, in, you know, many, many months, if not 9 to 10 months, uh, as they’re going higher. Uh,

Frank Curzio 09:26

it’s getting worse, and it’s not going to change unless we lower rates. And just we’re seeing everything around the house, from insurance prices to energy prices, uh, just going higher and higher and higher. Look, auto loans, business loans, private credit loans that investment firms were hoping to refinance, which we talked about the private, uh, you know, private credit marketsright now, and people are really worried.

Frank Curzio 09:46

I’m glad everyone’s talking about it. Usually, when you talk about it, everyone knows it’s coming, so you don’t have to worry as much, uh, as, you know, banks can prepare for the downfall. But if, if rates remain this high through 2026 and we’re not going to touch them, it’s going to be very difficult to see the market go higher from here. And I don’t know if we’re pricing that inright now.

Frank Curzio 10:06

And this definitely threw a wrench in it, because this isn’t higher oil prices. This isn’t the market turn clearly after that inflation number, because if inflation is going higher, the Fed can’t lower ratesright now. They really can. I mean, they’re not seeing that much of a deterioration in unemployment. Uh, the economy. Yes, the economy. Looking at economic data, when the GDP got revised lower,right?

Frank Curzio 10:26

Expecting about 2%… a little over 2% growth for the year. Uh, you know, it’s not lower enough where you’re worriedright now. It looks like they’re going to keep rates steady. Uh, and I don’t know if that’s priced in going past probably four or five months from now. And, you know, just through September, the fact that there’s less than a 50% chance of a rate cut. I mean, you talk to Trump, he would say there’s a 150% chance,right?

Frank Curzio 10:48

Because he’s like, “That guy I’m getting in. Everyone better lower rates.” So that’s it. It’s over. They really can’t lower rates if inflation stays as high. They can’t.

Daniel Creech 10:55

The other thing, um, that stood out to me, Frank, did you see that, uh, 20% of this increase in the PPI was related to… and I love this… traveler accommodation services.

Frank Curzio 11:04

What does that mean?

Daniel Creech 11:05

So exactly. So tickets. Think of hotels, casino hotels. That’s why the Hollywood, which is a beautiful… I guess there’s two of them. There’s one in Hollywood down there, the Hard Rock, and then there’s one in Tampa,right? Is the one in Tampa a guitar?

Frank Curzio 11:19

It’s not a guitar.

Daniel Creech 11:20

It’s not a guitar, but it’s a Hard Rock.

Frank Curzio 11:21

Yeah. So basically, yeah, it’s a Hard Rock. Yeah, it’s a Hard Rock, but it’s not a guitar.

Daniel Creech 11:24

I had a friend going down to Key the Keys, uh, last week during the car show, last week or two weeks ago. And on the way down there, it’s a, what, seven, eight hour drive from here. They were going to stay at the guitar casino in Hollywood, Florida.

Frank Curzio 11:37

In Hollywood, Florida. Yeah. It’s about five and a half hours. Yeah.

Daniel Creech 11:38

And they were going down on, uh, like a Monday or Tuesday, and it’s dog friendly. Hats off to all you dog people out there. Um, and it was $1,200 a night. Yeah, on a weeknight.

Frank Curzio 11:49

Yeah. On a weeknight. Yeah. A couple days before. Weekdays, it’s $1,100 booking months in advance.

Daniel Creech 11:55

I point that out because these traveler accommodation services are everything on airlines and hotels and boarding and such. And, Frank, clear as mud here, not only are accommodation services surging, but did you see in the wake of oil prices rising, did you see Delta come out and the CEO go on CNBC earlier this week and revise to the upside all of their demand?

Daniel Creech 12:16

Yeah. Forget cost. What do airplanes do?

Frank Curzio 12:19

I mean, upside for Delta. Like, the analysts had it even, like, higher upside. And yeah.

Daniel Creech 12:23

I mean, a lot of airlines rose and came out with the positive news. Um, this is just a clear as mud thing, because it doesn’t make any sense to have prices surging. But it’s like what you say. Just give up betting against the consumer. Every negative thing you hear about the consumer, I get it. Take it. But do not put a lot of weight behind those data points, because consumers spend.

Daniel Creech 12:45

Yeah, you have short-term pullbacks and all that kind of stuff, but this is clear as mudright now with all this kind of stuff.

Frank Curzio 12:50

They do spend, but I think it’s… it’s… it’s about sentiment,right? Because when they’re worried and they see their bills going higher, that’s when they pull back. It’s a sentiment indicator. Now they’re seeing oil prices through the roof,right? Uh, so it’s interesting, because I’ve bet… listen, I’ve been doing this for a very long time, and betting against consumer is always the worst bet in the world.

Frank Curzio 13:10

You’re going to lose most of the time. Uh, there’s just periods where they slow down, but it’s more like the sentiment of how they view spending going forward. Andright now, it’s a lot of people cutting back. You know, you’re not seeing restaurants do as well. Uh, they come back on discretionary. And, you know, when it comes to airlines, it was funny when Buffett said, you know, the easiest way to lose money is buying an airline. That was back in the day when airlines said, “Wait a minute.

Frank Curzio 13:29

I think we kind of have, uh, you know, a monopoly.” And I don’t say monopoly. One of them have a monopoly, but, you know, try getting to California if you’re in New York or on the East Coast. Okay. So, so they realized, wow, we’re a necessity. So we could charge for every single thing we want. We could raise prices tremendously. People are still going to have to fly. And the pricesright now, even with the government shutdown and stuff like that and the lines and craziness and stuff, uh, hopefully that gets taken care of.

Frank Curzio 13:50

But we know our politicians are a bunch of assholes and probably won’t. So, uh, you know, imagine if they actually worked for the people who hire them, like, instead of working for their jobs all the time. I mean, it would be such a different country, which was…

Daniel Creech 14:00

Not going to happen, Frank.

Frank Curzio 14:01

Which was meant and intended from the founding fathers. Not, not… so you could do everything you can by looking at polls to make sure that you definitely, definitely get elected and don’t ever go against your party, because they’re not going to fund you or support you ever. So that’s why you just see these, you know, total. Everyone votes for Democrats, what they believe in it. Totally. All the Republicans wrote. But, you know, it’s just…

Frank Curzio 14:19

it’s never anyone really coming through outside. Maybe one or two people, which is why nothing, you know, gets passed when you have a split government, which you’re probably going to have going into next year with the midterm elections, because there’s not a lot of people that like this, uh, Iran war. Uh, and the markets haven’t really been doing too well. We’re seeing much higher oil prices, much higher costs, which Trump ran on saying, “Look, what gasoline prices…

Frank Curzio 14:40

look, what gasoline price is $3.70 now,right? It was below $3, at least in Florida. So on averages.” But it is interesting to see going forward.

Daniel Creech 14:48

Speaking of that, I don’t want to take too much time, but I wanted to ask you about this, because I think sentiment is key here on gas prices. CNBC was talking about a stat today, Frank, because oil, uh, oil prices obviously surging. Gas prices, the pump. We all can see that. There’s some people on CNBC and different perspectives out there, and you listen to everybody. But I disagree with this,

Daniel Creech 15:08

and I want your opinion, Frank, because I think sentiment is much more important than price. It’s kind of like price and value. What you pay versus what you get or how you value that. Supposedly, Frank, would you be surprised to hear that gas only accounts or accounts for less than 5% of our spending? Okay. I was a little shocked at that. I would have guessed higher. So let’s take that. So the argument was,

Daniel Creech 15:28

hey, gas prices, it’s not the 1970s, and if it’s not that much of your discretionary income or your income at all, then it’s not going to have that big of an impact. I totally disagree with that. I don’t care what percentage of price you pay for fuel when you see… because I’m guilty of this, so maybe I’m wrong, but I want your opinion.

Daniel Creech 15:48

When you see $3.50, $4 or more a gallon, it may not be a percentage of your spending, but that impacts you emotionally, in my opinion. And I want your take on that, because I was shocked when I heard that on TV. Guys were like, oh, this isn’t that big of a deal. You don’t think seeing Florida $4 gas prices is a big deal?

Frank Curzio 16:05

Daniel, you’re saying that you’re trying to convince me to work from home?

Frank Curzio 16:10

Daniel drives like an hour here, because we moved to the offices in Jacksonville. We used to be in Emilia.

Daniel Creech 16:13

We didn’t do anything, boss.

Frank Curzio 16:14

We didn’t. Yes. No, he drives. Yeah. He drives here. That’s a good pitch. I like the way you pitched that, though. When I see that, you know, it’s just crazy. Yeah. We got to cut back. And Daniel’s working from home.

Daniel Creech 16:24

I like that. I did not know.

Frank Curzio 16:25

Got to get you a microphone.

Daniel Creech 16:26

I wasn’t even going that way.

Frank Curzio 16:27

They do have a partner interruption,right? They… whenever they’re away, they just have a big screen up of a picture of you,right? You don’t have to be in the office at all. But, uh, 5% is a lot, though, man. I mean, 5% increasing your expenses by 5% when people already stretchright now. And, you know, what is it? 60%? 65%? People live paycheck to paycheck. You know, so you’re increasing that expense. 5% is a lot,

Frank Curzio 16:46

you know, and, you know, it makes sense, because look how much you’re paying for your mortgage and other things. And if you own a house and taxes and stuff like that. But, you know, so you feel it, you see it, and it impacts everyone. It’s not this cost that doesn’t impact where food prices. Okay. Maybe you’re not a vegetable guy. You’re not going to pay 50%, whatever it is. But you could switch and go to different places. You can go to, you know,

Frank Curzio 17:06

just other areas and buy food at the cheapest prices and stuff like that. But when it comes to energy, you can’t… you can’t… you know, everyone needs it,right? And everyone uses it. So, uh, it just impacts businesses directly and consumers directly. So, you know, we’re at 100, pushing 100 WTI, which I thought nobody had. And nobody had when this war first started.

Frank Curzio 17:24

They said, well, maybe they had a 20% chance, 10% chance. I mean, it went thereright away,right? So can you put up a chart of oil prices, Joe? I mean, you know, we’re talking about WTI, but just to see where it isright now. I mean, these shell producers that said, oh, we’re not going to take advantage of this. They should be turning on those faucets immediately and taking advantage of this. First of all, everybody needs oil. And who knows if the strait’s going to openright now?

Frank Curzio 17:43

I think Trump just came out and said, maybe we won’t open the strait, because he’s pissed off the NATO people who we protect all the time that don’t want to help him with the war. Uh, and with landing strips and stuff like that. But, you know, look where we are. $98. Holy shit. I mean, how aren’t these guys just, like, turning on those faucets? And, and all… listen, the energy stocks are not reflecting $100 oilright now.

Frank Curzio 18:02

If we stay here for another month, I mean, these stocks are going to go tremendously. Wait till you see their earnings. Holy cow. Just like they said, well, we’re not going to price cash. We’re not going to really do… believe me, they’re going to… they have the faucets onright now. They definitely do. And they better, uh, especially ones that aren’t hedged. Like, uh, what’s Occidental Petroleum? Can you push the Oxy? OXY?

Frank Curzio 18:21

Yeah. We talked about a lot of these to buy over the past few weeks, because, uh, the one… and Devon as well. But the ones that are least hedged and put up, uh, maybe a, you know, a one-month chart of that, of where it’s gone. I mean, obviously 52-week high, maybe all-time high. But, you know, you look at it in the 40s,right? We’re up 20% of that in the past month.

Frank Curzio 18:40

These, you know, oil companies, when you’re going to buy them, hedges are a huge deal. I did a presentation after I was let go from Stansbury. I worked for another firm, Weiss, which was a disaster. And then, yeah, it was one of the worst places you’ll ever work in your life. Uh, and what a piece of shit place, seriously. And, uh, and I’ll say that now, because, yeah, what they…

Frank Curzio 18:59

it’s what a garbage place. Anyway, so they had ties to Stansbury, and they asked if I wanted to speak there. So I said, yeah, sure. I know the whole audience. And there was one of their alliance conferences. I don’t think it was an alliance. I think it was a regular conference where they had 700, 800 people in the audience. And I went up there and I said, listen, sell every single oil stock you own. You know, I was very familiar with the oil industry. I know it well. I traveled to all the shell areas, and oil just crashed then.

Frank Curzio 19:18

I said, I don’t care if you own Exxon, a Chevron. Oil prices are definitely going to crash. You know, the ones that are hedged are okay. And I named some that hedged. I said, the ones that aren’t hedged are going to get absolutely annihilated. Oil prices came down, and it was different, because there was a lot of people within Stansbury who analysts that I know and I like, they were recommending oil companies. And they were like, wait a minute. They just went up there and said, you know, buy this oil company. I went up there and said, sell all your freaking oil company.

Frank Curzio 19:38

You know, it’s nice when you don’t… that’s why I say when I have this podcast, I can never work for anyone again, because I want to have my just free thinking, my free opinions, and say whatever I truly feel. And I don’t want to… you know, Goldman Sachs has, you know, what’s his name? John Heitzes, whatever. He’s a great economist there forever. But, you know, he’ll predict what the economy is going to do. No one else inside of Goldman is allowed to have,

Frank Curzio 19:58

like, a different opinion than him,right? They have to follow that. And no matter, you know, so, so just the free thinking part, being able to say whatever you want. It was nice to go to that conference and probably save people a shitload of money, because I forgot when that was, when oil crashed. Um, man, it might have been ’18, ’19, or something like that. And it came down tremendously. I just had a lot of research on it and the hedges and stuff like that,

Frank Curzio 20:18

and who had the hedges at the higher prices and who wouldn’t get hit too hard. But the ones that always feel free and always like, hey, we never hedge. We never hedge. You’re going to see incredible volatility. But it works when you have oil spiking like this, like Occidental Petroleum. And then when oil comes down, you get crushed more than the market, which is why Oxy was underperforming the market for such a while. So, uh, yeah, a lot of geopolitics involved.

Frank Curzio 20:39

And then you throw in the inflation data. You want to get to that first, but also want to get to Nvidia now. Nvidia, uh, GDC conference this week is in California. It’s dubbed The Woodstock of AI, with focus, obviously, AI data centers, robotics, which is dubbed Physical AI, autonomous machines, agentic AI, all this stuff,right? So, Jensen Huang keynote speech laid out what the future looks like for AI,

Frank Curzio 21:00

how Nvidia would be the biggest beneficiary, which obviously they are. Uh, you know, lots of takeaways. I want to start with you, Daniel. You know, what’d you think? Because everyone sees the headline that they’re going to generate $1 trillion in sales in 2027. And you know what the stock did,right?

Daniel Creech 21:14

Nobody cared.

Frank Curzio 21:16

Nothing. And people were like, how isn’t the stock going up with all the great earnings and stuff? And we said this was going to… we said we love Nvidia. The numbers are going to be strong. We expect this stock to kind of just trade sideways. And, and Joe, put up a six-month chart of Nvidia. I mean, definition of sideways. I mean, look at that. Outside of November, it popped, and then it cameright back down below $200.

Frank Curzio 21:35

But, uh, it’s been trading below $200 pretty much since November,right? In November. And, and, you know, the high is $212. And it’s just been chugging along. And since November, they reported two insanely unbelievable quarter results where they raised estimates significantly. Uh, now they’re raising estimates again.

Frank Curzio 21:55

I mean, there’s not too many more positive things that can go on for this company. And it’s not… it’s not showing in the stock. What are your thoughts?

Daniel Creech 22:02

Yeah. This is the, uh, Rodney Dangerfield of AI, which is ironic, because it gets no respect. And it is arguably the most significant, important, and dead center stockright in the middle of the biggest growth trend we’ve had since the internet, Frank. Um, I think this just shows you this is clear as mud, just like the oil and PPI situation and marketsright now.

Daniel Creech 22:22

Uh, you don’t always have to… markets aren’t always rational and such. I love this chart. In fact, and even if you backed out a little bit, you could have bought this stock in August of last year, and you basically be dead flat on this, depending on, you know, how you’re trading a little bit. But you can look at August. See Augustright back there. There it is. Thank you, Joe.

Frank Curzio 22:39

Yeah. In August.

Daniel Creech 22:39

But my point is, it’s just gone sideways.

Daniel Creech 22:41

And really, um, if you have some time, and none of us have patience. We all want instant gratification. I get that. If you bought this back in August, you’re probably pulling your hair out and you’re flat, because opportunity costs and whatever. I think that, and we’ve talked about this, Frank, you know, Apple, Google, you hit the nail on the head.

Daniel Creech 22:59

You called Nvidia would go sideways. Google went through this, and you recommended Google, and that took off. I think that that will be a win, not if situation. I think the prices will go higher versus lower outside of a real big market pullback from Iran. And really, what I would focus on, and I, uh, Frank, is what, you know, I like your analogy on saying,

Daniel Creech 23:19

hey, when you read through the paper, don’t just focus on the story you’re reading. Focus about the companies that are going to be impacted by the story you’re reading. So what I took away from listening to Jensen’s comments were really about everybody else. And Frank has talked about this. We use briefing.com for, um, headlines and market information and stuff. We don’t get paid by them. We should. I don’t know why we don’t.

Daniel Creech 23:38

But if you just type in Nvidia’s ticker and scroll down, Frank, the last three days takes up like six months. They basically announced they partnered with everybody. You pick a tech company, they’re in a headline. Oh, yeah, we do that with Nvidia, too. But the takeaway for me was what they said about two of my favorite stocks, both, um, well, one’s about to be in CRA, uh, Palantir and Dell.

Daniel Creech 23:58

Frank, Jensen said Palantir Technologies and Dell made it possible to build AI everywhere.

Frank Curzio 24:03

That’s incredible.

Daniel Creech 24:04

How the hell is that not the best tip of the hat? Yeah, if you’re Dell or Palantir?

Frank Curzio 24:08

Palantir is such an amazing company.

Daniel Creech 24:10

I’m not ignoring Nvidia. I think you, if you want to play that and you feel comfortable with that and you’re okay with just saying, hey, the market will. You believe the… I think the odds are in the favor of the market pushing that higher over time. But if you want somethingright now, I would look at all the companies that Jensen was talking about and partnering about, and Dell and Palantir are easily two low-hanging fruits.

Frank Curzio 24:31

$1 trillion in sales. Let’s go there. I mean, ten years ago, the total sales for all the companies’ S&P 500, ten years ago, total $10 trillion. So this would be 10% of that market. Right now, it is at $18 trillion if you look at all the sales combined for the S&P 500.

Frank Curzio 24:47

So Nvidia is responsible for more than 5% of the total sales. That’s what they’re going to see in 2027, which is absolutely insane. Joe, pull up a chart of Apple. Okay.

Frank Curzio 25:03

So when you look at Apple and then compare it to the S&P 500. Okay.

Frank Curzio 25:10

And stay with me here, guys. And if you can’t see this and you’re listening to it, I’m going to explain it to you. So we’re going to go back. Go back a little bit further. Go back to, like, uh, the August lowsright there. The August lows.

Frank Curzio 25:21

You just move it on. So we’re looking at around, around eight months,right? So if you go to the August lows, if you could… can you drag that part or no? The bottom, if you go down, you could actually drag it if you can’t worry about it. Use your arrow to go to the months. Just point to the months. And yeah, there you go. Drag it to August at the lows of August. Keep going. You just had it. Go all the way to August. No, the other way.

Frank Curzio 25:39

The other way. The other way. The other way. The other way. Right there. Stop. Keep going a little bit further. A little further. Right there. Stop. Now, what are the percentages gained? This is since August,right? With Apple. So we’re looking at what? 6%, 7% gains. And what are the gains there for, uh…

Daniel Creech 25:53

Looks like 24%.

Frank Curzio 25:54

Which you have 25%,right? So you have 25% since August,right? So the past eight months. I’m not just picking this random thing. Like August, you can go back even further. And Apple was down. The reason why I’m telling you this is because the same story exists with Apple. Apple was in the AI trend. Apple was doing shit. They didn’t really have strong sales growth. They didn’t know if the iPhone, the new iPhone, was going to do that good. If you go to Siri and say, hey, Siri, ask anything.

Frank Curzio 26:14

He goes, we’re going to… he goes, let me ask ChatGPT,right? That’s what she says. So they have no AI at all,right? And this whole new phone was supposed to be, you know, Apple Intelligence, and they lied to everyone or whatever. They didn’t have it. But what happens is they had sales go up tremendously. Now they’re signing AI deals. They’re not spending as much as everyone else, obviously, and saying, hey, you know what? Let’s just partner with someone. We’ll probably do it with Google and whatever and, you know, OpenAI.

Frank Curzio 26:35

And you have this stock that nobody talked about being up 25%, which is one of the biggest stocks in the world based on market cap, not the biggest next to Nvidia,right? What’s the market cap go down a little bit, Joe? For Apple, the market cap is what? 3.6%. And Nvidia is over $4 trillion. I think we’re going to see something like this with Nvidia. I think Nvidia… and you know how I felt with Nvidia.

Frank Curzio 26:55

I just felt like there was better buys, better buys. I think Nvidia is a great stock to buyright now. And I think quietly it’s going to go higher, because when you look at this, you know, we’ve been on the trend saying it’s going to go sideways, going to go sideways. And a lot of institutions already own it. Everyone’s pricing in the revenues and earnings. They just said $1 trillion in revenue, and it’s not freaking pushing higher. You know, same thing with Apple.

Frank Curzio 27:13

I mean, went from $200 to $250 out of nowhere,right? And outperformed. I think you’re going to see this stock be $230, $250 by year-end, if you’re looking at Nvidia. If you go back to Nvidia, which is in the $180sright now. And simply for these reasons. Valuation.

Frank Curzio 27:30

And the one thing that you have with Nvidia that I think people aren’t talking about is when the numbers get better and better and your stock doesn’t move, your valuation gets cheaper and cheaper. Do you know what Nvidia is trading atright now on a forward PE basis? It’s trading at 22 times forward earnings. It’s a market multiple. Okay. The S&P 500 is trading on a forward basis, is trading at 21 times forward earnings.

Frank Curzio 27:51

Earnings for the S&P 500right now expected to grow 15% this year. Sales expected to grow 8%. Just remember those numbers. It’s important. Okay. So you have the S&P 500 trading at 21 times, growing sales at 15%, growing sales at 8%, growing earnings at 15%, which is great. Doesn’t say the S&P is super expensive, because you got to factor in growth.

Frank Curzio 28:11

Nvidia has basically the same multiple. And you know how much they’re projected to grow earnings by in next year? Do you know how much? 73%. They’re expected to grow sales by 71%. This doesn’t include sales to China, where Nvidia is going to start selling the H200 chips to China next year,

Frank Curzio 28:31

which the 40 plus sell-side firms that cover the stock that I haven’t even been modeling for, just a few of them, most of them haven’t. This is going to provide several billion dollar bump to revenue in quarters to come. So when I look at Nvidia, I like it here because, one, the valuation. And just so you never want to buy a company simply on valuation, but it has more growth.

Frank Curzio 28:50

It’s growing what? Five times faster than the overall market, trading at the same multiple, which means that when the shit hits the fan or the market comes down or not expected interest rates to go higher, that you want defensive companies. It doesn’t get more defensive than Nvidia. You can’t look at it as a hyperscaler. You got to look at this company saying 22 times forward earnings, growing faster than the overall market. You got everybody out there who’s going to continue to spend,

Frank Curzio 29:11

which we know this isn’t, you know, slowing down anytime soon. And, you know, the second reason that you’re looking at this is people say, well, every institution owns it already. And, you know, they blow out the numbers every quarter and it hasn’t done anything. Just raised $1 trillion in sales. True. But the fundamentals based on the growth projections, it almost makes this stock impossible to go down from these levels.

Frank Curzio 29:32

So you’re getting the protection here where this is where the defensive nature comes in. And it’s almost… I’ve never seen a stock like this that’s growing this fast, that’s an industry leader, a market bellwether, blowing out expectations and sales when it comes to growth, blowing out the expectations when it comes to earnings. And yet it’s trading on a market multiple.

Frank Curzio 29:51

I just think Nvidia, from a risk-reward perspective, might be one of the best stocks you could possibly ownright now, especially with everything going on in Iraq. Now we have inflation numbers that are higher. And inflation is not going to impact these hyperscalers. They’re not, because they continue to spend. They need to spend. They can’t fall behind. If you fall behind, you’re a software company. If you fall behind, you’re a software company.

Frank Curzio 30:12

Which, by the way, if you listen to Nvidia, the conference and stuff like that, they talk about Grok and that platform and how they’re layering it onto software companies. So either you’re going to have to do that as a software company, which Nvidia is going to make even more money. And that’s not even priced into the $1 trillion in estimates. Grok is absolutely insane, which they bought what? In 2025. But now they’re layering it.

Frank Curzio 30:32

Now, if you’re a software company, if you don’t use this, good luck. Good luck. Because now, you know, the company’s using this. One, you’re probably going to get discounts on Nvidia’s hardware,right? That you need for your systems and AI and stuff like that. And Nvidia is just… I think they’re going to penetrate every single industry saying, hey, you have to use us, especially hyperscalers.

Frank Curzio 30:51

If you, you know, you want to pay, you know, a little bit of a discount for bulk pricing, well, you have to use our systems and software system, because this is more as a software company, just like it is a hardware company now, Nvidia. But, you know, when I look at this and companies, they can’t stop spending. There’s no way they could stop spending on AI. If you do your software company, look at…

Frank Curzio 31:10

pull up IBM really quick and look at the last month in IBM.

Frank Curzio 31:13

And this is because OpenClaw, which is, you know, this direct competitor. Look at… put them on the chart up in IBM. Look what happened to this stock. Remember how good things were going? It was three foot… look at this. Look at it in a month. Where is it? So you’re looking at… go a little bit further. There you go. Look where this stock was in February. I mean, you’re looking at all-time highs at $324.

Frank Curzio 31:34

It’s $253. It was getting annihilated. And if you look at, you know, again, some of the things that this company was saying during… that Nvidia was saying during the conference, you know, they talked about OpenClaw. They talked about, you know, specifically NemoClaw, that’s Nvidia’s enterprise-grade version of OpenClaw that layers Nvidia’s software stack on top of the existing software platforms.

Frank Curzio 31:55

So they’re saying this is a million times better than Linux and faster. I mean, some of the things that he said, uh, in terms of, uh, you know, the agents completing tasks, make decisions and take actions with minimal input, that’s what OpenClaw does. But some of the comments, and I actually wrote them down, of what he’s saying at this conference were just unbelievable.

Daniel Creech 32:16

Isn’t that what he said would be the next ChatGPT?

Frank Curzio 32:19

The next ChatGPT was one of them. Uh, you know, talk about the $1 trillion in orders, talking that, you know, this isn’t going to change anytime soon. Uh, you know, these are some of the takeaways. Just like, you know, the $1 trillion, it doesn’t include sales from its Blackwell Rubin chips. So it only includes Blackwell Rubin chips, not Rubin Ultra chips, next generation.

Frank Curzio 32:38

The Grok racks that’s currently shipping, that’s a software where he’s talking about OpenClaw. Doesn’t include any of those sales,right? So, you know, when you’re looking at some of the things that he’s talking about and how it’s going to disrupt the markets, I mean, holy cow, man. This guy is just like on fire. And, you know, it’s not slowing anytime soon. You just… you’re not seeing anything. You’re seeing demand easily, easily outpace supply.

Frank Curzio 32:59

It’s not… it’s going to be like that for a very long time. Nvidia isright in the middle of this. But, you know, you’ve seen the industries and the stocks like IBM up there of every time they come out with new offerings, it’s just impacting so many different industries that you could do this and you could automate it. And if you look at hyperscalers and saying, well, the spending is going to slow, they can’t fall behind. They’re going to be in a lot of trouble.

Frank Curzio 33:17

Google, you know, increased its market cap by $1 trillion after Gemini really got going from $2.5 and then into $3.5. You look at the last year for Alphabet. But, you know, when I see companies like hyperscalers, are they going to stop spending? Well, look what happened, because they’re starting to lay off employees. And that’s what happened with Meta.

Frank Curzio 33:36

Meta just came out and said, you know what? We’re going to lay off 20% of its staff. 16,000 out of the 80,000 people are currently employees. And, you know, these are reports. Three different reports that are saying this and saying that the layoffs are expected to offset higher AI infrastructure costs and create room for greater AI-assisted workers. So they’re going to be laying off employees, which means what?

Frank Curzio 33:57

It means that they’d rather spend more money on CapEx for AI, because it’s going to continue. And if they have to, they’re going to lay off employees where AI is actually taking their place. So, you know, if you think this spending is going to stop anytime soon, you’re absolutely wrong. Everything has to filter through Nvidia. And eventually, Nvidia blowing out the quarters and nothing’s moving this way.

Frank Curzio 34:16

When you keep raising those numbers and earning more and generating more sales, the valuation actually… people are going to look at this and say, wow, how are we not buying this company trading on a market multiple growing five times faster in earnings and sales than the overall market? And to me, it creates this layer underneath it of safety with a lot of upside. And I think you’re going to see an Apple move here where no one’s paying attention.

Frank Curzio 34:36

Next thing you know, it’s $220, $230, $240. Did you see the talk of price on Nvidia, by the way?

Daniel Creech 34:42

No.

Frank Curzio 34:43

Holy cow.

Daniel Creech 34:43

What is it?

Frank Curzio 34:44

So, Nvidia is…

Daniel Creech 34:46

I like your defensive comments, though.

Frank Curzio 34:49

Yeah, I really do like it from a defensive point of view. So they have… I think I wrote this down because it was incredible. I couldn’t believe, like, just some of the, you know, some of the forecasts on this company, which is amazing. I mean, it’s just… they’re expecting 30%, 40% growth from here in a year,

Frank Curzio 35:08

just when it comes to this company by itself. 30%, 40% growth on average. I mean, you’re looking at these targets going to $230, $240, $250, $260, $270, because they’re saying… and that’s based on 25 times forward earnings, which is where a lot of hyperscalers are tradingright now. Even those have come down, those multiples. So the one thing that’s good about hyperscalers, which you’re seeing, is it’s going to start becoming a defensive sector, because the stocks are going lower while their earnings are surging.

Frank Curzio 35:30

And when that happens, you create a multiple that’s cheaper than a lot of other stocks. You want to buy Walmart at 40 times forward earnings that’s growing sales at a few percentage? I mean, how is Walmart trading at that level and Nvidia trading at half the valuation, growing a million times faster than them? And that’s how people are going to look at the market when it comes to what? When it comes to rotation. The money has to flow somewhere.

Frank Curzio 35:50

You can’t keep it on the sidelines or these guys don’t generate fees. And if you don’t think they’re generating fees, take a look at the PBI report. Holy shit. Portfolio management services, all the shit through the roofright now,right? So in order to generate those fees, they have to put the money someplace. That’s why even in tough markets, you’re seeing oil do good. Bitcoin’s popping a little bit higher now. So, you know, there’s always going to be areas, even, you know, consumer staples.

Frank Curzio 36:11

And, you know, AI is pulling back. But the one thing about AI, guys, that you need to know is they’re increasing earnings. They’re blowing out their numbers time and time again. And what it’s doing is it’s lowering their PE ratio to the point where you’re going to see money managers say, I have to buy Nvidia at 20 times freaking earnings. And who’s going to trade? 18 times earnings,right? I got to buy it at 20 times earnings.

Frank Curzio 36:31

And when they’re growing at 75%, 80%, and their customers are spending, are going to increase spending by 20%, 30% a year going forward, at least the next couple of years. You’re going to see money flow into this. And this is going to be a $220, $230 stock pretty much by the end of the year. And you could do it with a lot of safety. I don’t see this thing coming down any further, because their numbers are just going to get better and better going forward.

Daniel Creech 36:50

Yeah, I agree. The wild thing about markets is you could have made that argument in August and the stock didn’t move. But I like the concept of waiting. You have six months now. Hey, I agree.

Frank Curzio 37:02

Well, here’s the deal. You couldn’t make the argument in August, because the earnings have gotten that much greater since August, since these quarters were reported. So you’re seeing earnings absolutely surge, which means what? Which means the valuation is getting better. Price-to-earnings ratio,right? So your earnings are going higher while your PE, the price, is staying the same, meaning that the stock’s getting cheaper and cheaper.

Frank Curzio 37:20

That’s why in August it was probably trading at 25, 26, 27 times earnings. Now you’re trading at 22 times forward earnings. A lot… it’s different now, even though you see sideways. So I’m not just picking, you know, a date out of the hat and being like, I’m just saying how much lower could it go? 21 times forward earnings?

Daniel Creech 37:35

Well, that’s what I’m talking about for a market leader. I mean…

Frank Curzio 37:36

I know.

Daniel Creech 37:37

That’s great.

Frank Curzio 37:37

That’s growing this fast and putting up the numbers. So it’s going to factor into the stock eventually, because how do you buy some of these other hyperscalers? How do you buy, you know, even Palantir? I love software. A little bit different than Nvidia. Nvidia is getting more into software. But trading at 100 times sales, Nvidia is going to be trading at three times sales, four times sales, you know, four times, which is crazy.

Frank Curzio 37:56

So, you know, when I look at this name, I think it’s a steal here from risk-reward. I don’t think you can find a better stock to own based on your risk-reward. I think there’s tremendous upside and very low risk based on the valuation here. So they keep blowing out the numbers. And that’s not going to change anytime soon with all hyperscalers spending money like absolutely insanely crazy. We talked about the layoffs. Let’s get to that.

Frank Curzio 38:16

Meta laying off 20% of its staff, 16,000 people, the 80,000 current employees. You know, we have different arguments about this. For me, I’ve been saying, listen, AI… this has been happening for 18 months, 24 months. And people are like, it’s not AI. It’s not AI. Company’s actually coming out and saying it’s AI now. And when they do, you’re seeing stocks… Meta went up higher when they made this announcement.

Frank Curzio 38:37

And when this announcement… I don’t know if they officially made the announcement, but there’s three different sources inside. I don’t know if they sent internal memos to employees. But they’re not denying it, Meta. So, you know, positive. And a lot of analysts are very positive on it now and saying, okay, this is… this is the new AI story is one word: efficiency. That’s the word with AI, okay?

Frank Curzio 38:57

It’s how do we get more efficient? How do we justify to the market that the spending is worth it? Okay, well, we’re cutting 20% of our workforce. You have Grok cutting 40% of its workforce. Amazon laid off 51,000 employees. Oracle, 25,000. Salesforce, Google, laying off employees. They’re laying off employees, spending more on AI. And a lot of people are saying, well, maybe it’s not because of AI.

Frank Curzio 39:17

Maybe it’s because of the, you know, the overhiring and stuff like that. You know, for me, the bots and AI and Agentic being in this industry, it’s going to take a massive amount of jobs. And, you know, Meta coming out with this news, obviously positive for the stock, being more efficient.

Daniel Creech 39:30

Yep, absolutely. And the news was around this UK company, Nebius. If I’m butchering that, I’m sure I am. But that stock, Nebius, popped 16%.

Daniel Creech 39:41

Meta is going to spend $12 billion with them for AI, Frank, starting in early 2027, then another $15 billion. So this is a $27-ish billion deal. And that’s where I saw all the reports. Hey, we’re going to do this big deal. And then to help offset that or market fears, we’re going to cut some spending.

Daniel Creech 40:01

To your point, Frank, looking at AI and stuff, okay? So we have Grok, formerly known as Square, Jack Dorsey, cut 40%. Chevron, big oil company, 15% to 20%. That’s efficiency. Frank, Verizon, 13% of non-union workforce. Careful there.

Frank Curzio 40:18

Careful, careful. Very smart.

Daniel Creech 40:19

Ericsson, 12%. This is over the last year. Intel, 15%. Amazon, 10%. That’s mostly corporate. UPS, remember, they announced a big 17% layoff. IBM, 8% to 9%. Dell has shredded, shed, excuse me, about 10% over the last year. But that closer…

Daniel Creech 40:38

that number goes to almost 30% if you just go back a couple of years, okay? So that’s significant.

Frank Curzio 40:42

Look at the numbers they’re reporting, getting more into… yeah.

Daniel Creech 40:45

Absolutely. Now, I’m one of the camp that says AI is a perfect situation to blameright now. And the reason I say that, I have no doubt AI will take some jobs. It’s going to reshuffle a lot of things. I’m not ready to jump into the camp and say AI is the reason that all these companies are shedding jobs yet. I think this is a great cover. I think it’s a great excuse. What’s behind it?

Daniel Creech 41:05

I think over time, companies get more efficient naturally, or they should. Number two, I think it takes time, several years. And I could be totally wrong on this. I’m just simply saying, every single one of these companies that we’ve talked about, in my opinion, hired like crazy during the COVID lockdowns. And I just don’t think companies are going to cut that excess hiring,

Daniel Creech 41:27

if you want to give it that, that quickly. So that’s going to take some time. And I do. And the reason I say some of that is, Frank, and I’ve gotten some feedback. My network is nowhere near as large as yours yet. But what’s interesting is I’m getting some feedback on people talking about engineers, and especially with writing code and all that. Quick side note here.

Daniel Creech 41:45

If you have a dark sense of humor like me, you’re laughing your ass off about this, because all those snobby, mostly liberals, and I know I’m getting political here, used to tell redneck and blue-collar people to code and learn how to code. Now AI is taking your job, not blue-collar people. So that’s irony. And I will just cheers to that if I wasn’t already out of my Guinness.

Daniel Creech 42:06

Back on this, Frank. So coding. But engineers are using AI to write more code. And that’s… everybody knows that. What I’m waiting to see, and some of the feedback I’ve gotten, and I’ve only gotten a handful of people, so I don’t want to act like this is everybody in my email list. But what I’m hearing, Frank, is, hey, a lot of the entry-level jobs and stuff now, it’s going to get better.

Daniel Creech 42:27

But even if an engineer isn’t writing code, they’re still checking it and doing it. So they’re more efficient as well. I think the entry-level white-collar jobs are really going to be disrupted. The coolest CEO, in my opinion, ServiceNow, Bill McDermott, Frank, he said college undergraduate unemployment could go to 30%. You got to have.

Frank Curzio 42:50

What is it, 70% now? I mean, all the early-stage jobs, those, you know, paralegals, all the stuff within lawyers, it’s just a lot of AI could do this in two seconds. And you don’t have to, you know, coach a kid or be there. And, you know, that whole pain in the ass stage where you’re kind of abusing the kid, which, you know, it’s all part of the job and stuff like that.

Frank Curzio 43:08

And by abuse, I mean, you know, you just yell at it, make them do coffee, do stupid shit. I went through that when I was a foreign exchange broker, you know, just get made fun of and stuff like that. It’s all part of the process. That’s how you grow up in that world. And, you know, those jobs, it’s just… it’s tough, because they’re coming out with, you know, the student loan debt is insane,right? Just what the colleges are doing to these poor kids, where you’re not really going…

Frank Curzio 43:28

almost anything that you could learn in college, you’re going to be able to learn through AI. Now, it doesn’t mean you’re going to have the social skills. Doesn’t mean you’re going to have the connections. It doesn’t mean you’re going to have as much fun, you know, in college. You know, get shit to go there, to show up and stuff like that. It gives you responsibility. It’s just, you know, for me personally, I’m… you know, college means nothing, to be honest. I don’t care what college you’re from.

Daniel Creech 43:48

If you’re going to send a child off and write checks.

Frank Curzio 43:50

Yeah, you know, I’m going to send out and give them opportunity and have great contacts to help my daughters and stuff like that, if they want to get in certain industries or whatever, because I’ve helped so many people in 30 years. But, you know, and that’s what it’s about. But, you know, I want them to experience that. I want them to have fun. I want them to be in sororities. I want them to go through the whole process and stuff and have a good time. And, you know, you meet your best friends there and stuff like that.

Frank Curzio 44:10

But this whole thing, for most people, for most, not all, that, you know, the classes that you’re teaching you and that education is going to transfer over to what you do in real life, it’s, I would say, less than 80%, you know, probably 80% of those people are not going to see that,right? Only probably 20%. But just the amount of debt that they come out with and they think that they’re going to be able to get jobs, it’s a changing landscape.

Frank Curzio 44:31

And it’s changing rapidly. So much so AI has been around for a good… was it three years ago now? Maybe a little bit longer than that, when all of a sudden, when I said, there’s no way Nvidia is going to make those numbers, and they blew them out tremendously. I’m like, that’s the best quarter I’ve ever seen in my freaking life. I couldn’t believe it. It’s been three years now. And look what’s coming out. Like, we’re just scratching the surface of Agentic AI.

Frank Curzio 44:51

We haven’t even gotten to physical AI with robots and with $10 billion or something that, you know, even if you cut that by, you know, 80% and say $2 billion robot, what do you think is going to… like AI? Like, these things are going to be in your house, like the Optimus robots or what the $10 billion forecast of what Elon Musk said. But even if you look at the markets now, look what happened to IBM.

Frank Curzio 45:10

Look what happened to software companies,right? Look what’s happening to your consulting companies,right? This is now just… this is where AI is just disrupting these companies. It’s going to continue throughout every single industry. Wait till you see what happens to healthcare and stuff, which a lot of stuff, it’s such a broken process. It’s going to make things much more easier. You’re going to be able to do surgeries at pinpoint accuracy now using robots and stuff like that,

Frank Curzio 45:30

which they’re doing already, but even more advanced using AI and learning and stuff. It’s a pretty scary environment for that young generation. But if they get into AI, if they start learning it, that is the future. Because, man, these guys… how much was that job offering? Where was it from? Was it… I think it was Anthropic. What were they… like $550,000?

Daniel Creech 45:51

Oh, an engineer year.

Frank Curzio 45:52

No, it was $500,000. $550,000 for an engineer job and stuff like that. Like, yeah, imagine being in that industry now. The whole entire world needs you. Every company wants you. You can dictate your price. And then when you work there, someone’s going to try to poach your fee for more moneyright now. That’s the AI industry.

Daniel Creech 46:06

Well, and then you’re going to get replaced by AI. You can’t have… and then you get replaced.

Frank Curzio 46:10

Not if you… not if you know AI. Like, even with our business where, you know, editorial is easily getting replaced. That was one of our biggest divisions here, getting all this stuff out. Now we shrunk it tremendously. And that person is using AI to help us write, to help get things out that knows how to write. You know, so, you know, the people adopting it, knowing how to use it,

Frank Curzio 46:28

you’re going to provide productivity for your boss, which is the most important thing. Also, this is the time to start your own fucking jobright now. This is the time to start your own company. I mean, you had, you know, your boy from OpenAI, Altman, said this is the first time in history that you’re going to see that you could have a billion-dollar company on one employee. I mean,

Frank Curzio 46:47

maybe it’s not a billion-dollar company, but there’s so many things that could automate through the process. And you could focus on what you’re good at. And trust me, running a business is not freaking easy. You know, it’s… you think you’re going to do what you love and bring whatever it is and wellness or health, whatever it is that you love to do. But, you know, as you start expanding, it’s payroll. It’s getting in theright people. It’s getting to the next level. You know, there’s so many things.

Frank Curzio 47:06

Credit card processing is a freaking nightmare. You know, just things that you have to learn. Well, a lot of this stuff is going to be totally automated going forward. It should be interesting. Real quick on the Meta thing and all the layoffs and stuff. But everyone is so high on Meta. JP Morgan, Wells Morgan, Stanley have targets between… look, it’s $619. Between $825 and $855, that’s 35% upside.

Frank Curzio 47:27

These are year targets. This is a year when they put this research in there,right? So we talk… and Bank of America, even better, $885 target. Bernstein has a $900 target. That’s implying 45% to 50% upside next 12 months. Jefferies wins the crown. $1,000 target on this stock. What is that? 65% upside from here?

Daniel Creech 47:45

Nice.

Frank Curzio 47:45

$1,000 target in a year from now. And now that you’re laying off employees and focusing more, you know, integrating AI even further, they love that. And they all came out. These are all updated recently after Meta. And again, just basically, the news is out. They get a layoff of 20% of employees. They’ve all come out with notes. I’ve read almost every single one of them. Those are the targetsright now.

Frank Curzio 48:04

Anywhere from 45% to 65% upside on one of the biggest stocks in the world. Usually, these things go 8%, 9% higher. Just goes to show you how oversold some of these companies are. I mean, this is almost $800. It’s $619right now, Meta. What’s it trading at? Go lower, Joe.

Frank Curzio 48:21

What’s about… so it’s trading at what? 20 times forward earnings.

Daniel Creech 48:26

Ooh, a little less than market.

Frank Curzio 48:27

Less than a market multiple. And look how fast they’re growing. That is insane. I mean, these companies are defensive companies. Now you’re going to start buying them. The difference is that these guys are putting up amazing earning numbers. Meta, you have Nvidia, you have Google. You know, Google’s been outperforming a little bit more. But when you see some of these companies, even Amazon, they’re becoming cheaper and cheaper to the point where they’re not going to get much cheaper.

Frank Curzio 48:48

You’re going to see a lot more money flowing into them, because they’re just growing much faster than the overall market. And now they’re trading at cheaper valuations in the market. It’s freaking insane. It’s insane. Allright, let’s get to the NCAA tournament.

Frank Curzio 49:01

Daniel, I don’t know if you’ve been looking at this at all. You watch college basketball anymore? You used to play basketball.

Daniel Creech 49:07

I haven’t watched as much as I would like to this year. And I did see the bracket, but I only saw it the one time. And I haven’t even filled it out yet. So, no, this is you. I’ll listen to your expertise.

Frank Curzio 49:20

I’ve been playing basketball. Probably my dream is probably not to do this, to be a coach. Probably for women’s basketball. But, you know, I love basketball. I’ve been playing all my life. I’m thinking about giving it another run, believe it or not. Isn’t that crazy at my age, 53?

Daniel Creech 49:35

It is.

Frank Curzio 49:36

I might hire someone to really just, you know, one-on-one coach and just, you know, not play crazy, but maybe, you know, I don’t even want to play over 50. I just… I can’t. When I play, I want to get engulfed and play and just see, because I just, you know, you got a little bit left in the tank and stuff. I just love basketball so much. It’s been part of my life since I was like 12, 11, 10. And when I look at this tournament,

Frank Curzio 49:54

I used to be a really good pick in this past few years. I haven’t. So maybe you shouldn’t pay attention. But I could tell you this, okay? A couple of stats. I watch college basketball all the time. It’s my favorite sport. It’s a crazy year, because the rankings at the beginning of the year had Purdue at number one, St. John’s at number five, BYU at number eight. And the reason why I’m highlighting these three companies… these companies, they’re all companies to me.

Frank Curzio 50:13

These three colleges and teams is because they all really kicked ass towards the end of the year. So they had the talent,right? I mean, BYU is in one of the toughest divisions. I think the toughest division by far. And people would argue with Big Ten and stuff. But, you know, you have Arizona, you have Houston, you have Kansas. I mean, teams like TCU are even in it and UCF,

Frank Curzio 50:35

which is a great team. But when I see St. John’s as a number five seed and I see Virginia as a three seed, what the F is going on? I mean, St. John’s, what do they have? Like six, seven losses, I think? They won their conference over UConn, and they beat UConn twice, including in the Conference Championship. They annihilated UConn. The game was over in the first five, five minutes. They blew them out, destroyed them.

Frank Curzio 50:54

How are they a five seed? And how are they all put into this one division? We’ll start with the hardest division, which is the East. You know, you got to have Duke up there, obviously. I love TCU. I think Duke and TCU… TCU is a real freaking team. They kick ass. They’re very, very good. They got a great coach. Who’s the coach of that? From a former pitch coach. It’s great. I mean, just if you highlight the coaches in this bracket, it’s insane.

Frank Curzio 51:15

I mean, you got Michigan State, you got Kansas, you got Purdue, you got UConn. Holy cow. UCLA. So, you know, you go down, you got St. John’s and Kansas on the next line. I got Louisville. Good team. Also ranked like in the top 15 at the beginning of the year, but really hasn’t played that well the rest of the year, even towards the end of the year. I always look at how these teams are playing towards the end of the year in their tournaments.

Frank Curzio 51:36

That’s why I’m not crazy about Kansas. I just felt like, you know, they beat Arizona. They beat Iowa State. They beat Houston. Three teams that a lot of people have winning the tournament. But they kind of… they got blown out in the tournament by Houston. Houston embarrassed them. They also lost a couple of weeks earlier to Arizona. You have UCF. Great team playing UCLA.

Frank Curzio 51:57

UCF is a very, very good team. Be careful there. And then you have UConn. And staying with that bracket, I have Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn. You’re going to see a lot of chalk here, but it’s the way it is. You got UConn there, Joe. And then, so you got Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn. It was staying in the East bracket.

Frank Curzio 52:17

And I got St. John’s playing UConn. Go up St. John’s. There you go.

Frank Curzio 52:25

So you got St. John’s on top, beating Duke. No, St. John’s beating Duke. Okay. And then I have Michigan Stateright there. There you go. And St. John’s and UConn. And I have UConn going to the Final Four. I’m not too high on UConn, but they have a pretty good bracket outside of Michigan State.

Frank Curzio 52:45

The rest of the bracket on top is absolutely loaded. And, you know, just Michigan State and St. John’s to make the Final Four, where you look at Kansas, St. John’s, you have, you know, Duke. I mean, those are three teams. Any three of those could advance in that part of the bracket. So let’s go to the South, which is below that bracket, Joe. Let’s go to the South. I have Florida and Clemson,

Frank Curzio 53:06

Vanderbilt, Nebraska, VCU, Illinois.

Frank Curzio 53:12

And then I have Houston and the seven seed. There you go. St. Mary’s. I got Florida playing Vanderbilt as a rematch. Florida played Vanderbilt in the semis, I believe. And they annihilated Florida, which that’s okay. Florida’s on like a 12, 13-game win streak, and they look fantastic.

Frank Curzio 53:33

I think this loss benefits Florida, actually. On the bottom, you have… I got Illinois and Houston. Okay. Then Houston won that game. And I have Florida. And let’s go the other side before I get to the Final Four. The other side.

Frank Curzio 53:52

On the West, I have Arizona,

Frank Curzio 53:56

Utah State. I really like. Watch out for High Point. I love them. I think that spread is nine points or something. I like them taking the spread, but Wisconsin’s going to win that game. Arkansas has been very, very hot.

Frank Curzio 54:09

I have BYU, Gonzaga, Missouri, Purdue.

Frank Curzio 54:16

And then I got on top of that Arizona, Wisconsin.

Frank Curzio 54:21

Even though I do like Arkansas, Arkansas is a really good team, but I don’t know. They just always fail for some reason.

Frank Curzio 54:25

BYU and Purdue.

Frank Curzio 54:31

And I have BYU and Arizona. And the bottom part, really quick, guys, which is the Midwest, Michigan playing great this year, but not too great towards the end of the year. And they’ve blown out a lot of great teams. I just think that that division’s a little overrated. I know they’re going to kill me from anyone that’s,

Frank Curzio 54:51

you know, Big Ten. So you have St. Louis. Then I have Texas Tech and Alabama. And Texas Tech is a great team, but they lost one of their best players, the best player on that team, but they’re still very, very good defensively. You have… what do we have? Michigan, St. Louis, Texas Tech, Alabama, who their top guy just got…

Frank Curzio 55:10

had a pound of pot in his room. And instead of saying that I used pot, he said he’s selling it. So he’s going to go to jail. He got kicked off the team. If I was his lawyer, I would have got him out of that. And he’d be playing in this game. Too bad for you. Always say you’re a user. Don’t say you’re a seller, because then they could really prosecute you. If you’re a user, they just send you over to, you know, some rehab or whatever. But I know a pound of pot’s a lot, but trust me.

Frank Curzio 55:30

And I don’t… I’m not speaking of it from experience when I was a kid. I’m not. I grew up in Queens, New York, and had a lot of friends. But I’m just saying that’s the way you do it. Tough, because he’s, I think, the second leading scorer. And Alabama’s the number one… I think it’s the highest scoring team in the nation. You have Tennessee and Virginia. Even though Virginia’s horrible, I got them going to win the first round.

Frank Curzio 55:50

Kentucky and Iowa State. And then on the top of that bracket, Michigan playing Texas Tech. They have been playing well, even without their best player. I think they advance still. Tennessee, Iowa State. And I have Michigan playing Ohio State.

Frank Curzio 56:11

Iowa State. And then when we get to the Final Four, I have UConn playing Houston.

Frank Curzio 56:22

So go down. I think you got to go down,right? Up, up, up in the middle. In the middle. Is that it? UConn. And you got to put UConn there. And then you got to put it in the Final Four. Go down. Click Houston over Florida and Iowa State. Houston, Iowa State. And if you go up and go to that last part of the bracket, which one on the Final Four, I have that team in the Final Four is Arizona.

Frank Curzio 56:48

Okay. And in the Final Four, I have Houston playing Iowa State. And Houston winning that game. I’ve seen Houston play. They are unbelievable defensively. They locked down Kansas like Kansas was a bunch of children. They did lose to Arizona in the final.

Frank Curzio 57:09

This team is absolutely unbelievable. If they could just get a little bit of offense and the offense is better late, I do think they’re the best team. Arizona, when I look at UConn, UConn is good. They’re not the UConn of the past. I just got them in the Final Four because… I mean, I think Duke… Duke lost a lot. It’s point guard, and I think he’s supposed to come back to Final Four. It’s a big deal,

Frank Curzio 57:27

because they almost lost in the tournament, I think, in the semis or something. I forgot what team that they played. It was an easy game. But you could see that that’s a big impact for them. So they have injuries. And they also have one of the toughest roads, Duke. But Duke could easily be here. Arizona, great team. Watched them a lot this year. I just worry, because they’re not a three-point shooting team. And usually, it’s rare to see in the Final Four that you don’t have really decent three-point shooting.

Frank Curzio 57:48

Even though they won. I think it was against Ohio State, actually, was beating Arizona. And they hit a three-pointer to advance and then play Houston and win in the Big 12. If you notice one thing here, there’s three teams that I have from the Big 12, and it’s because I watched this the most with Kansas. But Houston, Arizona, Iowa State are all unbelievable teams. These are teams that any single one of them could win it.

Frank Curzio 58:09

I wouldn’t put Kansas in there. I think Kansas has a talent, but just the back half of this year, like the last few games, I just wish they played a little bit better. Now that Peterson is playing, who’s probably going to be… he should be the number one pick in the NBA Draft. But I do have Houston winning the whole thing over Ohio State. And there’s three out of four Big 12 teams. So might be a little biased.

Frank Curzio 58:28

I didn’t know that until I just saw that. But that’s my prediction. Houston playing Iowa State and Houston winning the National Championship. Let’s see what happens. Hopefully, we don’t see Iowa State lose on day one, like we saw with Kentucky a couple of years ago. But a lot of chalk there. But, you know, listen, Michigan could easily be there as well. Duke definitely has a shot.

Frank Curzio 58:48

Wouldn’t be surprised. And Florida as well is playing really, really good. They don’t have the team they had last year, that their front courts or the back courts starting to play a lot better. But they got annihilated by Vanderbilt. And I was just surprised to see that. And, you know, it means they’re vulnerable. So they’re a very, very good team. They’re dangerous. But as they get towards the Final Four, their competition is going to get pretty steep.

Frank Curzio 59:07

And I think Houston owns them when they play them. So that’s it. That’s my bracket. I do it every year. Let’s see what happens. I think this is a perfect bracket. I think I’m going to hit every single game, every single one, I have a feeling. So, you know, I’ll split all that money with you. And if you look at it, I don’t know if it’s a million-dollar bracket, but they probably pay you like,

Frank Curzio 59:26

you know, $5,000 for 67 years in these things, just like they did… what was that? America’s Got Talent? You win a million dollars, and then you get the Vegas show. And they used to say, like, the payout’s over 20 years for a million dollars. Like, you never read the fine print over 20 years. I mean, what the… allright, really? Are you kidding me? Like, you know, they’re generating a million dollars per advertiser on the freaking show, and that’s what they were giving away.

Frank Curzio 59:46

So I don’t even know. Again, I love looking at the fine print. It’s so funny, because nobody ever looks. And when you look, you’re like, holy shit, these guys are assholes. But with that said, that’s my bracket. That’s the end of this podcast. Daniel, you have a team that you’re going to pick for the win. Just throw a team out there or no? No. I… Houston got second. No. Houston got second last year. I’m a big fan of their coach, Kelvin Sampson.

Frank Curzio 01:00:06

So I wouldn’t be upset to see them win at all. Just watch UCF. UCF, BYU, they beat Kansas. They beat Texas Tech at… when Texas Tech had their full team, their full squad, before Toppin got, you know, his best guy on that team with the best players in the nation got hurt and out for the year. UCF’s dangerous team. So is TCU. And High Point, I would keep an eye out as well. That looks pretty, pretty good.

Frank Curzio 01:00:26

And also, the first game… go into the really quick before I go to the St. John’s bracket. I love St. John’s. I think they have one of the best teams. That first game with Northern Iowa… be very careful. Northern Iowa is a sleeper team. They are pretty good. St. John’s, by far, has… for a five seed, they have one of the toughest brackets. That Northern Iowa team is pretty good.

Frank Curzio 01:00:47

What’s the spread in that game? Nine? Nine and a half. I really like Northern Iowa in that game. So… and hopefully I’m wrong, because St. John’s, it’s a lot of momentum winning the Conference Championships. But Northern Iowa is a real team. They’re really, really good. So is High Point. Those are two names you got to watch as long as you see… as well as UCF and watch BYU too. BYU is a very, very good team. And I think they’ll do well in the tournament.

Frank Curzio 01:01:08

I have them going to the Final Eight, actually. Yeah, the Final Eight,right? Yeah, before playing Arizona and losing. Allright, guys. That’s it for us. 

Questions and comments, feel free to email me at frank@curzioresearch.com. 

Daniel, what’s your email? Daniel@curzioresearch.com. 

Allright. That’s it for us. And we’ll see you tomorrow on Wall Street Unplugged Premium. Take care. 

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Wall Street Unplugged is produced by Curzio Research, one of the most respected financial media companies in the industry. The information presented on Wall Street Unplugged is the opinion of its host and guests. You should not base your investment decisions solely on this broadcast. Remember, it’s your money, and your responsibility.